2025 年 08 月 26 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 对二甲苯：供需紧平衡，趋势偏强，正套 PTA：三房巷新装置投产，正套 MEG：趋势偏强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 一位经纪人表示："过去一周 PX 价格一直波动，因此 25 日的走势相对稳定。 与此同时，PX 的涨幅受到中国 PX 和 PTA 期货疲软的限制，市场参与者称三房巷最近启动了新的 PTA 产能。8 月 25 日，中国三房巷公司消息人士证实，该公司于 8 月 23 日至 24 日将其新的 150 万吨/年 PTA 线 2 号线上线。消息人士补充说，由于两条生产线现已投入运营，生产商的运行量约为总产能的 95%。该位于 江苏的工厂由两条 PTA 生产线组成，每条生产线的铭牌产能为 150 万吨/年。 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6970 | 4862 | 4509 | 6596 | 492.9 | | 涨跌 | ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a significant increase due to market assessments of direct US-Russia contact and potential further sanctions against Russia, followed by a notable decline in prices during the trading session [1] - As of the close, light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.81 to $64.35 per barrel, a decrease of 1.24%, while Brent crude for October delivery dropped by $0.75 to $66.89 per barrel, down 1.11% [1] - The US Secretary of State indicated that more information regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential sanctions would be released later that day [1] Group 2 - Rystad Energy analysts noted that while oil prices rose due to potential US tariffs on Indian goods, the market is awaiting formal implementation and its impact on market factors [2] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 3 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, bringing the total to 423.7 million barrels [2] - The average daily crude oil processing volume in US refineries increased by 213,000 barrels to 17.1 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 96.9% [2] Group 3 - The American Petroleum Institute predicted a decrease of 4.2 million barrels in commercial crude oil inventories, with gasoline inventories expected to drop by 900,000 barrels [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests holding long positions in crude oil and paying attention to US sanctions on Russian energy [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.13 per barrel, a decline of 1.70%, at $65.16 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $1.12 per barrel, a decline of 1.63%, at $67.64 per barrel; SC2509 crude oil futures closed down 6.60 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.30%, at 502.50 yuan per barrel [1]. Market News - Russia is considering an aerial cease - fire but will not agree to a full cease - fire [2]. - Trump said if energy prices drop low enough, Putin will stop the conflict. He will decide whether to sanction countries buying Russian energy after a meeting in Witkov on Wednesday. There is a high possibility of imposing a 100% tariff on Russian oil, but the result is undetermined [2]. - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 1 was - 4233000 barrels, compared with an expected - 1845000 barrels and a previous value of 1539000 barrels. API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, and heating oil inventory also had corresponding changes [2]. - The CEO of Bank of America said their economists expect the US economy to grow about 1% - 1.5% this year [2]. - Trump will "significantly" raise tariffs on Indian imports in the next 24 hours due to India's continued purchase of Russian oil, with the current tariff rate at 25% [2]. - Eurozone's July composite PMI rose from 50.6 in June to 50.9, slightly lower than the initial estimate of 51.0, still indicating economic weakness. The service - sector PMI climbed from 50.5 in June to 51.0 [2]. - Dutch International Bank believes OPEC+ may end production increases [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] and a classification of weak,偏弱, neutral, 偏强, strong, where - 2 is most bearish and 2 is most bullish [4].

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The US dollar index fell sharply by 1.37% to 98.67, marking its largest single-day drop in over four months due to weak non-farm payroll data, which heightened expectations for interest rate cuts [1] - The disappointing non-farm employment data for July significantly underperformed market expectations, leading to a substantial increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3] - Gold prices surged over $70, closing up 2.21% at $3363.03 per ounce, recovering all losses for the week and reaching a new high since July 25, supported by the market's anticipation of a rate cut [1][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - International crude oil prices continued to decline, with WTI crude oil futures dropping 3.04% to $67.24 per barrel, influenced by concerns over OPEC+ production increases and weaker-than-expected US employment data [4] - OPEC announced a decision to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, contributing to a significant shift from a reduction to an increase in production strategy [4][6] - The oil market is expected to remain under pressure as the peak season for refined oil consumption approaches its end, with a potential further decline in prices anticipated [4][6]

Gold Market - Gold prices have continued to decline slightly, but the downward momentum has noticeably slowed, maintaining an overall oscillating pattern [2] - This week, significant data releases including U.S. employment figures, inflation data, and Q2 GDP growth, along with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, may impact market sentiment [2] - Market predictions are generally pessimistic, with the effects of tariff policies on the U.S. economy becoming more apparent [2] - The Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold this month; a rate cut could raise questions about its independence and potentially lead to a surge in inflation, undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar [2] - Technically, gold's daily chart shows a small bearish candle, indicating a continued oscillating trend, with long-term moving averages acting as a mid-term dividing line [2] Oil Market - Oil prices experienced a limited rebound, but fundamental pressures are increasing, potentially leading to a downward break in the long-term trend [4] - OPEC+ representatives have indicated a temporary plan to restore production, with expectations that Saudi Arabia and partners will approve an increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [4] - If the new production plan is approved, eight core OPEC+ members will fully reverse the 2.2 million barrels per day cut implemented in 2023 a year earlier than planned [4] - Seasonal demand provides some support for oil prices, but weakening consumption may create pressure from both supply and demand sides, with a long-term possibility of prices testing the $55 per barrel level [4] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a significant decline, indicating that the upward trend is likely complete, although short-term divergence appears excessive [6] - The price has entered a previous small range, forming a downward structure, with a focus on the resistance level at $5.63 per pound [6] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has formed a bearish candle, signaling the completion of an upward structure and the beginning of a mid-term adjustment [7] - The 4-hour chart indicates significant overselling, suggesting a potential for adjustment, with attention on the resistance level at 41,260 [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated. The spreads of the three major crude oil markets remained high. Policy-wise, the US will impose new tariffs on over 20 countries starting August 1st, and other trading partners may face a 15% - 20% tariff. OPEC+ is discussing a suspension of production increases starting October. Fundamentally, global oil inventories increased this week. US refinery profits strengthened, and the supply - demand contradiction in European diesel was prominent. Asian and domestic gasoline and diesel fundamentals were neutral, with domestic gasoline and diesel inventory accumulation accelerating and refinery profits being eroded. In the peak refinery season, crude oil spreads are expected to remain high - oscillating. WTI and Brent are stronger than the Dubai market. The absolute price faces downward pressure in the medium - term due to OPEC's accelerated production increase and tariff policies. OPEC+ suspending production increases in the fourth quarter won't change the situation. Attention should be paid to non - OPEC production and the slope of demand change after the peak season [5]. 3. Summary by Related Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From July 11th to July 17th, WTI increased by $1.16 to $67.54, Brent by $1.00 to $69.52, and Dubai by $0.31 to $70.24. NYMEX RB increased by 2.64 to 217.04, and HO increased by 7.31 to 246.46. SC decreased by 0.60 to 516.80, and OMAN increased by 0.88 to 69.18. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by 13.98 to 63.78, and Singapore 380 - BRT had a change in the spread [3]. 3.2 Daily News - India's oil minister is confident in meeting India's oil demand if Russian oil supplies are affected by secondary sanctions. Russia's gasoline and diesel reserves are close to historical highs, ensuring domestic supply. Two of Iran's nuclear facilities damaged by the US have a relatively low damage level, and Trump rejected a more comprehensive military strike plan against Iran's nuclear program [3][4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - This week, the operating rate of major refineries remained flat, and that of Shandong local refineries increased slightly. China's gasoline and diesel production both increased, with diesel inventory accumulating. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased month - on - month [4]. 3.4 EIA Report - For the week ending July 11th, US crude oil exports increased by 76.1 barrels per day to 351.8 barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 1.0 barrel to 1337.5 barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 385.9 barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2026.2 barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease year - on - year. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 30.0 barrels to 4027 million barrels, a 0.07% decrease. Crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 637.9 barrels per day, an increase of 36.6 barrels per day from the previous week [16].

Core Viewpoint - Crude oil futures have stabilized after three days of slight declines, with limited downward pressure expected this week despite concerns over OPEC+ production increases and potential economic impacts from U.S. tariffs [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The market is experiencing concerns regarding OPEC+ increasing supply and the potential economic impact of U.S. tariffs on demand [1] - Analyst Fawad Razaqzada suggests that while OPEC will release more supply into the market in the second half of the year, demand is not expected to be as poor as feared [1] - The oil price is anticipated to exhibit a sideways trading pattern for the remainder of the year rather than a clear trend [1]

Group 1 - The asphalt market has maintained a lukewarm trend for two consecutive months, with the upcoming demand peak raising concerns about price direction and space logic [1] - The main divergence in the asphalt market is between the downward pressure on the cost side and the seasonal inventory reduction logic [1] - OPEC+ is accelerating its production increase, which is expected to exert long-term pressure on oil prices, despite short-term support from downstream demand [1][2] Group 2 - The asphalt market has initiated a destocking process, with social inventory decreasing due to construction activities in northern regions [2] - The current low factory inventory rate of around 16% continues to provide solid support for asphalt prices [2] - Although refinery profits have slightly recovered, asphalt output remains limited due to the diversion of raw materials for gasoline and diesel [2] Group 3 - The current crack spread ratio of asphalt relative to Brent crude oil is high but not at extreme levels, indicating a favorable valuation structure [3] - Despite a weak supply-demand balance in the short term, the seasonal effect is expected to support the fundamental valuation of asphalt [3] - The asphalt market's trend is still dependent on the oil market, and a cautious approach is recommended due to the lack of strong upward momentum in crude oil prices [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Crude oil may open lower and fluctuate, and investors are advised to buy on dips [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI was closed for the U.S. Independence Day holiday with no settlement price; Brent September crude oil futures fell $0.50 per barrel, a 0.73% decline, to $68.30 per barrel; SC2508 crude oil futures fell 5.20 yuan per barrel, a 1.03% decline, to 501.20 yuan per barrel [1] OPEC+ Information - OPEC+ stated that the global economic outlook is stable and market fundamentals are healthy. Eight member countries will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August [2] - Saudi Arabia set the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia in August at a premium of $2.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [3] - OPEC+ agreed on July 5 to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August, further accelerating production increases. The monthly production increase approved in May, June, and July was 411,000 barrels per day, and 138,000 barrels per day in April. With the August production increase, the production released by OPEC+ since April will reach 1.918 million barrels per day, and only 280,000 barrels per day of the previously voluntarily cut 2.2 million barrels per day production remains unrecovered. The organization is still implementing other production cuts totaling 3.66 million barrels per day. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for August 3 [3] - Analysts said that OPEC+ representatives were discussing a fourth consecutive production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, but there could also be a "slightly larger" increase. According to the increased UAE quota, OPEC+ will return about 2.5 million barrels per day of production to the market. So far, about 1.4 million barrels per day have been returned (one increase of 138,000 barrels per day and three increases of 411,000 barrels per day). The remaining production increase may be divided into three monthly increases (two of 411,000 barrels per day and one of about 275,000 barrels per day). But it could also accelerate production increases with two increases of about 550,000 barrels per day [3] Other News - On the evening of July 5, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei made his first public appearance since the 12 - day conflict between Iran and Israel last month [3] - On July 4, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei's senior advisor Velayati said that Iran firmly defends its legitimate rights in scientific development and safeguarding national dignity, including the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy [3] - U.S. President Trump said that an agreement in the Gaza Strip might be reached next week [3] - Europe is promoting Iran's nuclear negotiations but said the hope of reaching an agreement is slim [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, with a range of [-2, 2] for integers, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is likely to approve an increase in production of approximately 550,000 barrels per day at the meeting on August 3, with implementation planned for September [1] Group 1 - The potential production increase is aimed at addressing market demand and stabilizing oil prices [1] - The decision reflects OPEC+'s ongoing strategy to manage supply in response to global economic conditions [1]