Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in global in - transit crude oil inventory at sea. If a large amount of compliant oil in floating storage cannot be digested, the near - term forward curve of crude oil needs to weaken and turn into a contango structure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.8%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 45 cents to $64.44 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.19% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit exceeded analysts' expectations. Its Q3 net profit adjusted for one - off items rose 0.8% year - on - year to 104.9 billion riyals (about $28 billion). The company increased production according to OPEC+ policy, stabilizing performance in a low - oil - price environment [1] - BP CEO said that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand [1] - The US Deputy Energy Secretary said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US strategic petroleum reserve is depleted, so the current priority is to replenish the reserve as soon as possible [1] Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly. Recent Saudi crude oil shipments are close to 7 million barrels per day, Latin American shipments exceed 6 million barrels per day, Russian shipments are close to 4 million barrels per day, and US shipments exceed 4 million barrels per day. In addition, the export of northern Iraqi crude oil through Ceyhan has recovered, and Kuwait's crude oil exports have also increased significantly due to a refinery device failure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]