Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in global in - transit crude oil inventory at sea. If a large amount of compliant oil in floating storage cannot be digested, the near - term forward curve of crude oil needs to weaken and turn into a contango structure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.8%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 45 cents to $64.44 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.19% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit exceeded analysts' expectations. Its Q3 net profit adjusted for one - off items rose 0.8% year - on - year to 104.9 billion riyals (about $28 billion). The company increased production according to OPEC+ policy, stabilizing performance in a low - oil - price environment [1] - BP CEO said that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand [1] - The US Deputy Energy Secretary said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US strategic petroleum reserve is depleted, so the current priority is to replenish the reserve as soon as possible [1] Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly. Recent Saudi crude oil shipments are close to 7 million barrels per day, Latin American shipments exceed 6 million barrels per day, Russian shipments are close to 4 million barrels per day, and US shipments exceed 4 million barrels per day. In addition, the export of northern Iraqi crude oil through Ceyhan has recovered, and Kuwait's crude oil exports have also increased significantly due to a refinery device failure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 纯碱 |专题报告 专业研究·创造价值 姓名：闾振兴 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03104274 投资咨询证号：Z0018163 从历史数据来看，供应是纯碱行情的最大驱动，反应到对应指标上体 现为价格结构的转变幅度大，速度快。需求驱动对行情的影响相对缓和， 对价格结构的影响有限。不同背景和行情下，纯碱价格结构对行情均有较 好的指引性和佐证。 在中短周期中，资金对于价格波动而言，几乎是必要条件，但是在长 周期中不必然。在纯碱这个品种上，大多场景中，资金的敏感性非常好， 所以持仓也是一个重要的指标。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授予 的期货从业资格证书，期货投资咨询 资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态 度，独立、客观地出具本报告。本报 告清晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐 意见或观点而直接或间接接收到任 何形式的报酬。 电话：0571-87633890 邮箱：lvzhenxing@bcqhgs.com 报告日期:2025 年 5 月 22 日 纯碱价格、结构与资金的关系研究 核心观点 价格结 ...