Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly, leading to a substantial rise in global in - transit crude oil inventory at sea. If a large amount of compliant oil in floating storage cannot be digested, the near - term forward curve of crude oil needs to weaken and turn into a contango structure [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 49 cents to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.8%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 45 cents to $64.44 per barrel, a decline of 0.69%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed down 0.19% at 464 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Aramco's quarterly profit exceeded analysts' expectations. Its Q3 net profit adjusted for one - off items rose 0.8% year - on - year to 104.9 billion riyals (about $28 billion). The company increased production according to OPEC+ policy, stabilizing performance in a low - oil - price environment [1] - BP CEO said that oil demand remains strong, with aviation and petrochemical products driving a 1% increase in oil demand [1] - The US Deputy Energy Secretary said that energy demand is rising rapidly, and the US strategic petroleum reserve is depleted, so the current priority is to replenish the reserve as soon as possible [1] Investment Logic - Since September, global crude oil shipments have increased significantly. Recent Saudi crude oil shipments are close to 7 million barrels per day, Latin American shipments exceed 6 million barrels per day, Russian shipments are close to 4 million barrels per day, and US shipments exceed 4 million barrels per day. In addition, the export of northern Iraqi crude oil through Ceyhan has recovered, and Kuwait's crude oil exports have also increased significantly due to a refinery device failure [2] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle - East conflicts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Price structures generally include contango, backwardation, and flat structures. Different structures often correspond to different meso - level drivers, and in the process of market evolution, dynamic price structures often consolidate and corroborate market trends [3][86]. - The formation of price structures is generally caused by supply - demand (inventory), event factors, capital premiums, and contract rules. For soda ash, changes are mainly caused by supply - demand. Due to the high concentration of the supply side and the dominance of glass production on the demand side, the supply - demand transmission is fast and elastic, effectively affecting the futures price and price structure [3][86]. - Historically, supply is the biggest driver of soda ash market trends, leading to significant and rapid changes in price structures. Demand - driven impacts on the market are relatively moderate and have limited effects on price structures. Soda ash price structures have good guiding and corroborating effects on market trends under different backgrounds and market conditions [3][86]. - In the medium - to - short - term, capital is almost a necessary condition for price fluctuations, but not necessarily in the long - term. In most scenarios for soda ash, capital is highly sensitive, so open interest is also an important indicator [4][86]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price Structure - **Definition**: The price structure refers to the price curve formed by the spot price, near - month futures price, and far - month futures price of a commodity at the same time, also known as the term structure. It can be simplified as "basis + monthly spread" for data tracking. There is a strong correlation between price structure and price, and in specific scenarios, price structure can be a sufficient condition for price [9]. - **Classification**: Classified by curve shape, it includes contango (C structure), backwardation (B structure), and flat structures; classified by movement state, it includes static and dynamic structures. Considering dynamic structure changes is the core of analyzing price structures [10]. - **Contango Structure**: It is a common structure where the spot price is the lowest, the near - month futures price is higher than the spot price, and the far - month price is higher than the near - month price. This structure often corresponds to a weak - balanced or surplus supply - demand situation, and the contango part corresponds to the holding cost [11][14]. - **Backwardation Structure**: It is relatively uncommon, with the spot price being the highest, the near - month futures price lower than the spot price, and the far - month price lower than the near - month price. It often corresponds to a tight supply - demand situation or a sudden turn in future supply - demand expectations. Extreme market conditions often show this structure [15]. - **Flat Structure**: It is not common, with prices in different terms hovering in a narrow range. It is often a transitional state between C and B structures or can be a long - term stable state for commodities with strong macro - attributes [16]. - **Static Structure**: It means the price structure remains relatively stable. It usually represents the end of a certain state or a pricing balance. The key is to observe when the static structure is broken [20]. - **Dynamic Structure**: It refers to a structure in the process of change. Special forms such as "V" and inverted "V" structures can be seen in dynamic structures [21]. 3.2 Causes of Price Structure - **Supply - Demand (Inventory) Drive**: Supply - demand drives price structure changes mainly through near - month price changes. A long - term, stable, and significant change in supply - demand is needed to change the price structure. For example, extremely low or high inventory levels can lead to significant price changes in the near - end [26][29]. - **Event Drive**: It is essentially a form of supply - demand drive, but with shorter time, faster rhythm, more obvious amplitude, and less predictability. Price structure changes are short - lived and significant, often showing "V" or inverted "V" structures initially [30][33]. - **Capital Premium**: Capital - premium - induced price structure changes are now relatively rare. It was common before 2018 for the main contract to experience large price fluctuations. The roll - over effect can also cause short - term price structure changes [34]. - **Contract Rules**: Price structures determined by contract rules are usually set when new contracts are listed and are continuously adjusted during market evolution. Special situations near delivery can also cause structure changes [37]. - **Limitations of Price Structure**: The core logic of price structure is based on meso - level logic. If market fluctuations are not driven by meso - level factors, there will be no obvious changes in price structure [38]. 3.3 Research on the Relationship between Soda Ash Price, Structure, and Capital - **Soda Ash Review**: 12 scenarios since the listing of soda ash futures were selected for review, focusing on inventory, open interest, price structure, and price to analyze their roles and time sequences in market trends [39]. - **July - September 2020**: Soda ash production decreased, inventory dropped from 125 to 73.62 million tons, demand recovered, and prices rose. The 9 - 1 spread increased, changing from C to B structure [40]. - **October - December 2020**: Production was at a high level, inventory increased from 71.76 to 135.12 million tons, demand was weak, and prices fell. The 1 - 5 spread decreased, changing from B to C structure [41]. - **January - March 2021**: Production increased, inventory first decreased and then increased, demand was stable, and prices rose. The 5 - 9 spread remained in C structure [45]. - **October - December 2021**: Production was high, inventory increased from 29.3 to 160.89 million tons, demand was weak, and prices fell. The 1 - 5 spread converged [48][49]. - **January - February 2022**: Production was stable, inventory decreased from 183 to 140 million tons, demand recovered slightly, and prices rose. The 1 - 5 spread increased, changing from C to B structure [52][56]. - **November 2022 - January 2023**: Production was high, inventory decreased and then increased, demand increased, and prices rose. The 1 - 5 spread was not smooth, and the match between price structure and price was low [57]. - **March - June 2023**: Production and consumption increased, but production growth was faster, inventory increased from 25.25 to 52.26 million tons, and prices fell. The 5 - 9 spread increased, and the match between price structure and price was low [59][60]. - **November - December 2023**: Production was high with slight fluctuations, inventory first increased and then decreased, demand was strong, and prices rose. The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a high level, and the match between price structure and price was high [62][67]. - **December 2023 - January 2024**: Production was high, inventory increased, demand was weak, and prices fell. The 5 - 9 spread converged, and the match between price structure and price was high [68]. - **April - May 2024**: Production decreased during the maintenance season, inventory decreased by about 9.86 million tons, demand improved, and prices rose. The 5 - 9 spread converged, and the match between price structure and price was low [71][72]. - **July - September 2024**: Production and exports increased, inventory increased from 98.36 to 148.2 million tons, demand was weak, and prices fell. The 1 - 5 spread converged, changing from B to C structure [73][74]. - **March - May 2025**: Production first decreased and then increased, inventory increased to 171.2 million tons, demand was weak, and prices fell. The 1 - 5 spread strengthened, and the match between price structure and price was low [77]. - **Relationship Research**: - Supply - side marginal drive is stronger than demand - side for soda ash. Supply - led market trends have more significant price structure changes, greater price fluctuations, faster price responses, and longer durations. Demand - side impacts are relatively mild [80][83]. - More significant price structure changes usually correspond to larger price fluctuations. Price structure changes are often the result of price fluctuations, and the stability of price structure trends strongly corroborates price trends [83]. - Except for突发事件, combinations of low inventory, inventory drawdown, inventory build - up, and high inventory determine the direction and amplitude of price structure changes and reflect the intensity of market trends [83]. - In the medium - to - short - term, capital is almost a necessary condition for price fluctuations, but not necessarily in the long - term. For soda ash, capital is highly sensitive in most scenarios [83]. 3.4 Main Conclusions - Price structures include contango, backwardation, and flat structures, corresponding to different meso - level drivers. Dynamic price structures can consolidate and corroborate market trends [86]. - Supply - demand is the main factor causing price structure changes in soda ash. Supply - demand transmission is fast and effective in affecting price and price structure [86]. - Supply is the biggest driver of soda ash market trends, leading to significant and rapid price structure changes. Demand - driven impacts are relatively moderate [86]. - Capital is almost necessary for price fluctuations in the medium - to - short - term but not in the long - term. For soda ash, capital is highly sensitive, and open interest is an important indicator [86].