1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Before the official Russia-Ukraine talks, crude oil may continue the low-volatility oscillating market. Although the market will still engage in a game around the peace talks, considering the strong willingness of both sides to negotiate, the probability of unexpected events has decreased [4][69]. - In addition to the talks, short-term attention should be paid to Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting [4][69]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Volatility Decline and Oscillation**: The two rounds of talks between the US and Russia and the US and Ukraine were relatively smooth, leading to a decline in oil price volatility and oscillation. As of August 21, the closing price of the active contract of WTI crude oil futures was $63.48 per barrel, Brent crude oil was $67.67 per barrel, and the active contract of SC crude oil futures closed at 490.9 yuan per barrel [9]. - **Weakening of Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of Brent and WTI weakened [10]. - **Decrease in Net Long Positions of Funds**: As of the week ending August 12, the net long positions of WTI funds were 48,865 lots, a decrease of 32,472 lots compared to the previous period; Brent funds' net long positions were 199,820 lots, a decrease of 30,594 lots compared to the previous period. In the refined oil market, gasoline had a net long position of - 2,860 lots, diesel had a net long position of + 2,111 lots, and heating oil had a net long position of + 611 lots [14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC +**: At the meeting on August 3, OPEC + agreed to increase daily production by 547,000 barrels in September. The voluntary production cut exit process may be suspended or reversed. OPEC's production has gradually increased since May, but the increase is currently limited. In July, OPEC's crude oil production was 27.543 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 262,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 705,000 barrels per day, mainly contributed by Saudi Arabia and the UAE [19]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the production increase capacity is limited due to the limited change in the number of rigs and the low willingness of producers to expand production at low oil prices. As of the week ending August 15, 2025, the weekly US crude oil production was 13.382 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.327 million barrels per day [27]. - **Risk**: Attention should be paid to the Russia - Ukraine talks. The two rounds of talks between the US and Russia and the US and Ukraine were smooth, resulting in a decline in crude oil option volatility. Ukraine's security demands have been partially met, while Russia's territorial demands may be difficult to satisfy, which may be the point of contention in subsequent talks [28]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: US distillate oil demand has rebounded, while gasoline demand is relatively poor. As of the week ending August 15, US gasoline demand was 8.842 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 158,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 351,000 barrels per day; distillate oil demand was 3.967 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 266,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 391,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 1.899 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 144,000 barrels per day. The total demand for US petroleum products was 21.506 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 149,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.084 million barrels per day. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have rebounded slightly, but the gasoline crack spread is still at a five - year low, corresponding to the weak gasoline consumption compared to previous years. The diesel crack spread is at a neutral level in the past five years. The downstream refinery operations have remained at a high level. As of the week ending August 15, the US refinery capacity utilization rate was 96.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.3 percentage points; the crude oil processing volume was 17.208 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 519,000 barrels per day [30][39][43]. - **China**: The anti - involution policy does not directly affect crude oil. The key is whether it can drive the recovery of the domestic manufacturing industry and then boost crude oil demand. In July, the crude oil processing volume continued to increase, reaching 63.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 815,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.998 million tons, mainly due to the high - level operation of major refineries. The operation rate of local refineries has increased but remains at a low level, affected by the adjustment of refined oil tax policies and the transformation of domestic energy demand [47]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) decreased slightly. As of the week ending August 15, US crude oil inventories (excluding SPR) were 420.684 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6.014 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 5.345 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 403.425 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 223,000 barrels. The weekly crude oil inventory in the Cushing area was 23.47 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 420,000 barrels. In terms of refined oil, gasoline inventories continued to decline but remained at a relatively high level, and the continuous accumulation of distillate oil inventories alleviated the previous tight inventory situation. As of the week ending August 15, US gasoline inventories were 223.57 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.72 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 29.73 million barrels; distillate oil inventories were 116.028 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 67.83 million barrels; jet fuel inventories were 43.296 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 448,000 barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 35.33 million barrels [55][60]. - **OECD**: In July, the global crude oil supply - demand surplus pressure increased. The monthly global crude oil supply was 105.52 million barrels per day, and the demand was 104.34 million barrels per day, with a supply - demand difference of 1.18 million barrels per day (the previous value was 470,000 barrels per day). OECD inventories increased slightly, reaching 2.804 billion barrels at the end of July, a month - on - month increase of 80 million barrels [65].