资金面继续转松；市场情绪仍弱，债市震荡调整 【内容摘要】11 月 21 日，资金面继续转松，主要回购利率延续下行；市场情绪仍弱，债市震 荡调整；转债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要 欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【储蓄国债（电子式）将纳入个人养老金产品范围】财政部、央行 11 月 21 日发布《关于储蓄 国债（电子式）纳入个人养老金产品范围有关事宜的通知》，明确自明年 6 月起，个人养老金 储蓄国债（电子式）业务开办机构开办个人养老金储蓄国债（电子式）业务，即为在本机构开 立个人养老金资金账户的养老金投资者，提供购买储蓄国债（电子式）的相关服务。 【前 10 月全国新设外商投资企业增长 14.7%】11 月 21 日，商务部数据显示，今年前 10 个月， 全国新设立外商投资企业 53782 家，同比增长 14.7%；实际使用外资金额 6219.3 亿元人民币， 同比下降 10.3%。 【国债密集发行积极财政政策持续发力】据中国证券报，当前，国债发行进入密集期。11 月 24 日，财政部招标发行 970 亿元记账式附息国债和 60 ...

石油石化 2025 年 11 月 23 日 石油石化周报 俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 行 业 报 告 行 业 报 告 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 深 度 报 行 业 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 告 告 陈潇榕 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523110001 chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524070002 mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 石油石化：俄乌"28 点"和平计划草案披露，油价下行压力加大。 据 ifind 数据，2025 年 11 月 14 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日，WTI 原油期 货收盘价下跌 3.22%，布伦特油期货价下跌 2.77%。地缘政治方面， 俄乌"28 点"和平 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Developments - The Trump administration is preparing a backup plan for tariffs amid potential Supreme Court challenges to a key tariff authorization [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative's Office are exploring options under Trade Act Sections 301 and 122, which grant the president unilateral tariff authority [2] - If the court ruling is unfavorable, the U.S. government may be forced to refund over $88 billion in tariffs, but analysts expect immediate reimplementation of tariffs [2] Group 2: U.S.-Brazil Trade Relations - The U.S. has announced the cancellation of a 40% additional tariff on certain Brazilian goods, including coffee, meat, and fruits, while approximately 22% of exports to the U.S. remain affected [3][4] - This tariff adjustment is seen as a significant progress in bilateral negotiations, with Brazil expressing optimism about ongoing talks [4] - The White House's decision also includes the removal of a 40% tariff on Brazilian aircraft parts, aimed at balancing national security concerns with trade relations [5][6] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices have been declining, with WTI crude futures down 1.59% to $58.06 per barrel, and Brent crude down 1.29% to $62.56 per barrel, amid geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures [13] - Analysts suggest that a potential resolution in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could significantly reduce geopolitical risks and lead to a drop in oil prices as Russian oil returns to the market [13][14] - Current oil supply is under pressure, with OPEC+ increasing production while demand is in a seasonal decline, leading to expectations of significant inventory build-up in 2025-2026 [14][15]

每经AI快讯，11月21日，WTI原油期货跌幅扩大至2%，报57.819美元/桶。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，11月20日，WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至1%，报59.841美元/桶。 ...

每经AI快讯，11月19日，WTI原油期货跌幅扩大至3%，报58.847美元/桶。 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: November 19, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The 1Q 2026 production increase suspension has some support for the supply side but the effect is insufficient. Non - OPEC supply continues to rise, leading to obvious supply surplus in Q4 and Q1 2026 with an accelerating inventory build - up. Short - term sanctions on Russia and the situation in Venezuela may push up oil prices, but the supply surplus expectation is clear. The operation should follow a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [6][7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestion Market Review | Oil Type | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Daily Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (Main Contract) | 59.67 | 59.66 | 60.30 | 59.21 | - 0.48 | 18.14 | | Brent (Main Contract) | 64.03 | 64.03 | 64.72 | 63.67 | - 0.56 | 25.88 | | SC (Main Contract, Yuan/barrel) | 462.8 | 458.8 | 466.0 | 457.8 | - 0.43 | 7.76 | [6] Operation Suggestion - Adopt a short - selling strategy, such as shorting on rebounds or reverse spreads [7] Group 5: Industry News - Goldman Sachs lowers the average prices of WTI and Brent crude oil in the next year to $52/barrel and $56/barrel respectively. - UBS expects the target price of Brent crude oil to be $62 by the end of this year and $67 by the end of next year. - Sudan's energy facilities are attacked, and oil exports are interrupted. - Sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) may have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, reducing Russia's oil revenue and pushing Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), EIA crude oil inventory (thousand barrels), US crude oil production growth rate (thousand barrels per day), Dtd Brent price ($/barrel), WTI spot price ($/barrel), Oman spot price ($/barrel), US gasoline consumption (thousand barrels per day), and US diesel consumption (thousand barrels per day) [10][11][18][22]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6785 | 6852 | 6906 | 6392 | 6497 | 6546 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6843 | 6902 | 6949 | 6467 | 6565 | 6606 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -58 | -50 | -43 | -75 | -68 | -60 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.85% | -0.72% | -0.62% | -1.16% | -1.04% | -0.91% | | 场 | 成交量 | 260592 | 69005 | 445 | 314026 | 61784 | 1579 | | | 持仓量 ...

标普500指数连续四个交易日收跌，为8月以来最长连跌纪录。 *科技板块领跌大盘 *银行板块五日累跌4.5%，逼近关键技术位 中概股方面表现分化，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.42%。爱奇艺涨超6%，百度涨超2.6%，阿里巴巴与网 易均涨超1%；拼多多大跌超7%，创5月以来最大单日跌幅，老虎证券跌超2%，蔚来跌超1%。 银行股亦同步承压。KBW银行指数过去五个交易日累计跌4.5%，跌幅显著大于标普500同期的2.9%； KBE银行ETF在55美元附近反复测试支撑，自9月中旬以来已累计回落约10%。 Miller Tabak + Co.首席策略师马特·马利（Matt Maley）表示，如果银行股接下来继续走弱，将对整体市 场构成"重要警示"。他表示，随着市场对12月降息的押注下降，银行股此前依赖的利好基础正在动摇。 美国劳动力市场呈现更多疲态。劳工部数据显示，在截至10月18日的一周内，持续申领失业救济人数增 加1万人至195.7万人，较9月中旬的191.6万人明显上升。 由于政府停摆影响统计流程，劳工统计局未能正常完成10月就业调查。白宫警告，10月失业率大概率无 法公布。 High Frequency Econo ...