gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 上周原油市场上涨，布伦特10合约涨2.51%，SC10合约涨1.13%。特朗普分别与普京和泽连斯基会 谈后,俄乌和平协议的推动未如市场此前预期的顺利,8月以来乌克兰再次顿繁袭击俄罗斯炼厂，21 日夜间俄罗斯友谊输油管再次遭到破坏,导致向匈牙利和斯洛伐克供油至少中断5天,市场此前定价 的俄乌地缘缓和走向出现修正。此前我们谈到海外原油期货及期权净多持仓已达区间低位,短期地 缘风险仍有不确定性,建议继续持有虚值期权双买策略避险,待波动率放大后再个入中期空单。 (责金属) 周五美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会讲话表示就业下行风险正在上升，风险平衡变化可能 要求调整政策立场。讲话后美元跳水抹去一周涨幅，贵金属短线跳涨，美联储9月降息基本板上钉 钉。本周继续关注俄乌和平谈判进展，国际金银处于震荡区间之中，上方仍存关键阻力位。 【铜】 上周五铜价短线拉高，伦铜收在9800美元。杰克逊霍尔年会鲍威尔态度转鸽，谨慎暗示更关注劳动 力市场风险,9月中旬降息概率极大,美元指数下滑,带动贵金属及风险资产涨势。沪铜夜盘突破 7.9万,暂时 ...

[原ta油ble周_r报eportdate] 2025 年 8 月 22 日 短期或延续降波震荡行情 风险提示：俄乌会谈。 [table_main] 宏源公司类模板 分析师：范智颖 从业资格号：F03117807 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022690 研究所 Tel：010-82292099 Email：fanzhiying@swhysc.com 相关研究 《原油 2025 年展望：增产预期压制上方 空间》 《宏源原油周报 20250110：低库存下油 价对于供给的潜在减量较为敏感》 《宏源原油周报 20250117：特朗普即将 上台，关注其地缘政策》 《宏源原油周报 20250207：特朗普重申 降低油价承诺》 《原油周报 20250228：短期支撑有效， 减产底继续面临考验》 《宏源原油二季度报告：等待利空因素 消化，不必过度悲观》 《原油月报：转机与阴霾同在》 《原油周报 20250509：短期以反弹修复 看待》 《原油周报 20250516：回落风险并未完 全释放》 《原油 6 月展望：6 月仍有下行压力》 《原油 2025 年 H2 展望：利空因素逐步 消化，下半年谨慎看涨》 《原油周报202507 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading in crude oil and holding long - short spreads [1]. 2. Core View - The report provides the latest prices and price changes of international crude oil futures, along with relevant news and data, and indicates the current trend strength of crude oil [1][4]. 3. Detailed Summaries International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed up $1.31 per barrel, a 2.09% increase, at $63.96 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed up $1.21 per barrel, a 1.84% increase, at $66.84 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed up 4.60 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase, at 490.50 yuan per barrel [1]. News and Data - The US announced additional tariffs on Indian goods due to India's purchase of Russian oil and threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the US. Trump said he has no current plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil but might reconsider in two or three weeks [2]. - As of the week ending August 12, the speculative net short position in WTI crude oil decreased by 27,177 contracts to 4,048 contracts [2]. - The market speculates that if Putin opposes a cease - fire, the US may sanction Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil [2]. - Putin asked Ukraine to withdraw from the Donetsk region during his meeting with Trump in Alaska. In exchange, he would freeze the front lines in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and not launch new offensives. Zelensky is unwilling to give up Donetsk but is willing to discuss territorial issues with Trump in Washington [3]. Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price declined last week, and the geopolitical risk premium dropped significantly. The market refocused on the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and US reciprocal tariffs on oil prices. The outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting and the situation in Russia-Ukraine will still cause high volatility in oil prices [1]. - The precious metals oscillated at a high level on Friday. The official implementation and intensification of US reciprocal tariffs, concerns about the US economic outlook, and the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts pushed the international gold price to test the important resistance at the upper limit of the operating range in the past three months. Maintain the idea of buying on dips during the oscillation [2]. - The copper price rebounded last Friday, but the market still lacks a clear main line. Part of the underground copper mines in Chile resumed work, and the indicators are waiting for the impact of tariffs. Pay attention to the changes in the premium or discount during the delivery of the 2508 contract this week [3]. - The Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly in the night session on Friday. The consumption in the aluminum market remains in the off-season, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month-on-month, and the inventory peak may appear in August. The short-term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly oscillatory, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [4]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The "anti-involution" theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties, and the price of bauxite overseas during the rainy season is firm, corresponding to the cost of 3,000 - 3,100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to oscillate, but the downside space is also relatively limited [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The spot price of Baotai has been raised to 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain resilience relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [6]. - The expiration date of the main zinc contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, but the resonance between the macro and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand is insufficient, and the capital congestion has significantly decreased. The fundamental situation is strong overseas and weak domestic. The rebound of LME zinc has a pulling effect on the domestic market, but the willingness of downstream buyers to accept high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is under pressure, waiting for the short-selling opportunity above 23,500 yuan/ton [7]. - The lead price oscillated at a low level, with low capital attention and light trading. Scrap battery recyclers have difficulty in purchasing at low prices, and secondary lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses, resulting in a premium of 25 yuan/ton for primary lead over secondary lead. The willingness of downstream buyers is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase more cost-effective primary lead. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans at the end of August, and the overall supply of lead ingots is expected to increase month-on-month. The peak-season consumption still needs to be verified by the social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. The Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - The Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The "anti-involution" theme in China is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to the fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. In terms of inventory, the nickel iron inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory has decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de-stocking. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stages of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [9]. - The tin price oscillated and closed down on Friday. Pay attention to the support of the moving average combination. In China, pay attention to the changes in the high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and tin consumption. The SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly by 90 tons to 10,235 tons last week. Adopt a wait-and-see approach or choose short-term long positions opportunistically [10]. - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with heavy volume, and the market trading was active. The price structure is weak in the near term, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory is 143,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of ownership is obvious, and the downstream has increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week-on-week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for short-selling opportunities at high positions [11]. - The polysilicon futures rebounded after reaching above 49,000 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon reclaimed materials remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM), and the upward push resistance is relatively large. The downstream component price has decreased, and the end-users still have resistance to high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations. Pay attention to the progress of capacity management. The spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range oscillation [12]. - The industrial silicon closed slightly higher, and the spot price quoted by manufacturers remained stable. The current market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month-on-month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both the downstream polysilicon and organic silicon have production increase expectations, the expected increase is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. - The steel price oscillated weakly in the night session on Friday, and the billet price in Tangshan decreased by 10 yuan/ton over the weekend. The apparent demand and output of rebar have both increased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The demand for hot-rolled coils has dropped significantly, and the output has also decreased, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The molten iron output has declined moderately but remains at a high level. Under the low-inventory pattern, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. Pay attention to the subsequent production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places. From the perspective of downstream industries, real estate investment continues to decline significantly, infrastructure growth has slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity has slowed down, and the overall domestic demand is still weak. The steel export in July remained at a relatively high level. The real estate market in Beijing continues to relax, and the decline in PPI in July has narrowed. The strong expectation brought by the "anti-involution" and the weak reality of the fundamentals are repeatedly gaming, and the market sentiment is still cautious. The disk may still fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the overall trend of the commodity market [14]. - The iron ore disk oscillated last week. On the supply side, the global shipments are expected to increase seasonally in August, the domestic arrivals have increased, and the port inventory has stabilized. There is no obvious short-term pressure to accumulate inventory. On the demand side, the terminal demand is weak due to the weather, the molten iron output has decreased slightly in the short term, but the steel mills currently have insufficient motivation to actively reduce production. It is expected that the molten iron will remain at a relatively high level in the short term, and the replenishment demand for iron ore still exists. Pay attention to the progress of policy production restrictions in the future. At the macro level, there is still uncertainty in overseas trade, and the "anti-involution" sentiment in China has cooled down. It is expected that the iron ore will oscillate at a high level in the short term [15]. - The coke price oscillated during the day. The sixth round of price increase for coking is pending, and the profit has improved. The daily coking output has increased slightly. The overall coke inventory continues to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coke disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [16]. - The coking coal price oscillated during the day, and the market has high expectations for the coal over-production inspection. The output of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, and the transaction price has mainly increased. The terminal inventory remains unchanged. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, and the production-end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de-stocking in the short term. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the molten iron in the downstream remains at a high level during the off-season. The market sentiment has been boosted by the coal over-production inspection. The coking coal disk has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. The volatility will increase in the short term, and the downside space is relatively small [17]. - The manganese silicon price oscillated during the day. On the demand side, the molten iron output remains above 2.4 million tons, still at a relatively high level. The weekly output of silicon manganese has been increasing, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing certain support for the price. The price of manganese ore has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will still accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, the supply exceeded the demand, and the on-balance inventory continued to decrease. Pay attention to when the on-balance inventory of silicon manganese will start to increase. The bottom of the silicon manganese price is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [18]. - The silicon iron price oscillated during the day. The molten iron output has decreased slightly but remains above 2.4 million tons. The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a relatively small marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal has decreased slightly month-on-month, and the secondary demand has decreased marginally. The overall demand is acceptable. The supply of silicon iron has increased slightly, the market transaction level is average, and the on-balance inventory has increased slightly. The silicon iron mainly follows the trend of silicon manganese, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti-involution" policy expectation. Pay attention to the pressure near the previous high [19]. - The current spot price of the container shipping index (European line) is clearly in a downward trend, and the freight rate is accelerating its decline. The price reduction mode has changed from "taking turns to test" to "competitive follow-up reduction". However, it showed a tug-of-war between long and short positions last week. The core contradiction lies in the game between the "weak reality" and the "high basis". The main contract is deeply discounted to the spot. The current futures price of 1,400 - 1,450 points corresponds to a spot valuation of about 2,000 - 2,100 US dollars/FEU, while the actual spot central level is still above 2,800 US dollars/FEU. Looking forward, the reduction of blank sailings and the addition of extra ships in late August will increase the supply pressure, and the shipping companies are likely to accelerate the "price-for-volume" strategy to maintain their market share. If phenomena such as frequent and significant price cuts by multiple shipping companies occur, the market pessimism will spread comprehensively, and the market will strengthen the expectation that the freight rate central level in October will be lower than 2,000 US dollars/FEU (corresponding to the underlying index of 1,400 points) and even gradually approach the cost line (corresponding to the lowest spot level in the first half of the year around 1,250 points), pushing the disk down [20]. - The fuel oil arrival volume in the Asian market is abundant in August, and the ship bunkering demand lacks support. The ship bunkering volume in Fujairah has been declining month-on-month since June. The Singapore inventory remains at a high level, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore has continued to decline by 7 US dollars/barrel since the high in mid-July. The fundamental situation of the low-sulfur fuel oil market is weak, and combined with the recent weakening of the cost, the short-term pressure on LU is difficult to change. The decline of high-sulfur resources is relatively smaller than that of low-sulfur, and the price spread between high and low sulfur fuel oils continues to narrow [21]. - The sample refinery's asphalt shipment volume has increased slightly month-on-month, and the cumulative year-on-year increase has remained stable. The de-stocking of refinery inventories has slowed down, and the social inventory has increased slightly. The overall commercial inventory has remained unchanged month-on-month and is still at a relatively low level in recent years. In summary, the production increase space on the asphalt supply side is currently regarded as neutral. The actual production release of major refineries needs to be tracked and observed in the future. The demand is in a weak reality and has the expectation of recovery. The asphalt single-sided trend follows the crude oil. Against the background of the weakening of crude oil, the BU crack spread has rebounded significantly recently [22]. - After the CP reduction, the spot market of liquefied petroleum gas is running weakly, and the North American market is relatively under pressure. The import cost continues to put pressure on the domestic market with the increase in the arrival volume at the beginning of the month. The chemical profit has stabilized due to the decline in the finished product price. The PDH operating rate is still increasing, and there is bottom support for the domestic demand. The crude oil has weakened recently, but the current basis has rebounded to a relatively high level. The fundamental negative factors have been gradually realized, and the disk is running at a low level [23]. - After the policy was implemented last week, the urea market continued to decline, and downstream buyers and traders mainly adopted a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Currently, it is the off-season for agricultural demand, and the demand for autumn fertilization has started slowly. Compound fertilizers are expected to gradually enter the concentrated production period in the future. There are both departures and arrivals at the port, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. There are many domestic urea plant overhauls, and the daily output has decreased slightly, but it is still abundant compared to the same period last year. The short-term supply and demand situation is loose, and the market focus is on the changes in export policies [24]. - The overall operating rate of methanol olefin plants along the coast is not high, the arrival volume has increased, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The operating rate of domestic production enterprises has decreased slightly, and downstream buyers maintain rigid demand procurement. The inventory in the inland is at a low level and continues to decrease. In the future, the import is likely to return to the historical high level. The short-term apparent demand along the coast is weak, and the port is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation. The market is expected to run weakly in the short term. In the long term, the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching. Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and downstream replenishment rhythm [25]. - The pure benzene price oscillated and declined with the weakening of the oil price, and the sentiment in the现货 market has cooled down. The domestic production has continued to increase, the import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. In the short term, it is mainly dragged down by the cost. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in supply and demand in the middle and late third quarter, and it may be under pressure in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to conduct band operations on the month spread [26]. - PVC is oscillating. The upstream price has increased, but the profit of chlor-alkali integration is still acceptable, and the cost support is not obvious. The supply has increased month-on-month due to the reduction of overhauls and the addition of new production capacity. It is the off-season for both domestic and foreign demand, and the social inventory has continued to increase since July. The demand is poor, and the production is at a high level. The short-term futures price is expected to oscillate weakly. Caustic soda oscillated strongly in the night session on Friday. The industry inventory continues to increase. The price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali has improved month-on-month. The plants in the northwest region have resumed operation, and the supply has increased month-on-month. The demand support from alumina is acceptable, but the non-aluminum downstream demand is average. The downstream has resistance to high prices, and the spot price has declined slightly. The industry continues to accumulate inventory, and the long-term supply pressure remains. The futures price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [27]. - Affected by the weakening of the oil price, the prices of PX and PTA oscillated weakly. The processing margins of PTA spot and

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Copper - Copper prices are influenced by U.S. non - farm data increasing the expectation of a September interest rate cut, a weaker dollar, and a low inventory in China. The market is overall weak, and attention should be paid to the support level of 78,000 yuan/ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is cooling, and the market is currently oscillating strongly. If the news of supply - side production cuts is false, the market may turn weak [8] Crude Oil - Due to the seasonal peak travel season and low U.S. crude oil inventories, but with an unexpected large increase in U.S. crude oil stocks and OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate [10] Asphalt - With开工率 changes, inventory status, and cost factors, asphalt is expected to oscillate in the near term [11][12] PP - Given factors such as downstream开工率, supply, cost, and policy expectations, PP is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13] Plastic - Considering开工率, demand, cost, and policy factors, plastic is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15] PVC - With supply, demand, inventory, and policy conditions, PVC is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16] Coking Coal - Although the market sentiment is cooling, due to the expectation of supply tightening, the downward space for coking coal price correction is limited [18] Urea - The market is oscillating, and future trends depend on the purchasing progress of compound fertilizer plants and export conditions. The 09 contract has limited upward and downward space [19] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of August 4, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Logs and coking coal rose by over 2%, while eggs fell by over 4%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 1.063 billion yuan, while CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 1.092 billion yuan [4] Copper - The U.S. non - farm data increased the probability of a September interest rate cut. China's copper production increased in July, and the TC/RC fee stopped falling. The market is in a slack season with weak demand, and the inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is low [7] Lithium Carbonate - The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply - side开工率 increased, and there is an expected reduction in supply. The cost support is weakening, and downstream demand is expected to increase [8] Crude Oil - It's the seasonal peak travel season, and U.S. crude oil inventories are low. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus for 2025 [10] Asphalt - The开工率 of asphalt production has rebounded, and the expected production in August has decreased. The downstream开工率 varies, and the inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level. The cost support is weakening [11][12] PP - The downstream开工率 of PP has slightly increased, and the enterprise开工率 has risen. The upstream propane import is restricted, and there is new production capacity. The downstream recovery is slow, and the inventory pressure is high [13] Plastic - The plastic开工率 is at a neutral level, and the downstream开工率 has increased slightly. There is new production capacity, and the downstream is in a slack season with weak demand and high inventory [14][15] PVC - The PVC开工率 has increased slightly, and the downstream开工率 is low. Exports are affected by policies, and the social inventory is high. The real - estate market is still in adjustment [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price showed a mixed trend. The supply from Mongolia is high, and the domestic coal production has not significantly decreased. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand may be affected by the decline in iron - water production [18] Urea - The urea price weekend decline attracted orders. The production is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizer plants is increasing. The inventory has started to accumulate [19]

Group 1 - The main contract for eggs opened lower and continued to weaken, with a decline of over 5% in the last three trading days due to weak spot prices and significant adjustments in basis [1] - As of July 31, the average price of brown-shelled eggs in China was 3.09 yuan per jin, with the basis remaining around -300 yuan per ton, indicating expectations for convergence as the delivery month approaches [1][2] - The increase in the number of laying hens in July has continued, with a larger increase compared to the previous month, while the number of older hens in production areas is low, leading to reduced pressure for culling [2] Group 2 - The demand for eggs is expected to increase in late August, which may support egg prices, indicating a near-term supply pressure but potential for price recovery in the long term [4] - The egg price may continue to decline in the short term due to supply-side pressures and basis return, but there is a possibility of a stronger market in the future [4] - The overall market for futures contracts showed mixed results, with significant declines in egg prices and other commodities like industrial silicon and low-sulfur fuel oil [3]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors such as potential OPEC+ production increases and the structural shift of Russian crude oil supply to Asia cap the upside of oil prices, while demand is suppressed by factors like the decline in Indian imports and the Fed's tightening expectations. The domestic SC crude oil performs weaker than the international market due to the sharp increase in warehouse receipts and the expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Analysis - As of July 28, 2025, the SC crude oil futures price closed at 505.9 yuan per barrel, down 7.0 yuan (-1.36%) from the previous Friday (July 25). In contrast, WTI and Brent rose by $1.91 (+2.94%) and $2.0 (+2.96%) respectively. The spread between domestic and international oil prices narrowed significantly, and the near - month premium of SC contracts widened to 30.7 yuan per barrel, indicating strengthened expectations of spot tightness [1]. - Intensified capital games in the industrial chain. The SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels to 5.249 million barrels on July 28, hitting a recent high, suggesting rising domestic spot delivery pressure. The warehouse receipts of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil remained stable, indicating that the refinery's finished product supply did not accumulate in tandem with raw material inventories [2]. b. Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: On July 28, the OPEC+ ministerial meeting did not adjust the production plan. US President Trump's threat to impose sanctions on Russia raised concerns about restricted Russian energy exports [3]. - Demand: India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month to 20.32 million tons (the lowest since February), reflecting that high oil prices are suppressing emerging market demand. The expected suspension of refined oil price adjustments may further dampen domestic purchasing willingness [4]. - Inventory: The sharp increase in domestic SC medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts indicates significant spot market selling pressure. The accumulation of bonded delivery warehouse inventory may be related to the import arrival rhythm. The positive impact of US commercial crude oil inventory reduction is not clear, and the expected OPEC+ production increase may delay the arrival of the inventory inflection point [5]. c. Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate within a range. Supply - side factors and demand - side constraints will cap the upside of oil prices. The domestic SC performs weaker than the international market. The widening Brent - WTI spread reflects the resilience of non - US market demand. Attention should be paid to the Sino - US trade negotiations and the OPEC+ production decision for September [6][7]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.36%, WTI rose by 2.94%, and Brent rose by 2.96%. Spot prices of some crude oils remained stable or changed slightly. The spreads between different crude oils also changed, such as the narrowing of SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads and the widening of Brent - WTI spread [8]. - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 0.75%, Cushing inventory increased by 2.13%, and the US strategic reserve inventory decreased slightly. The API inventory decreased by 0.13%. - Refinery operations: The US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.70%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 0.52% [8]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased by 1.58%, LU decreased by 1.88%, and NYMEX fuel oil rose by 1.14%. Spot prices, paper - cargo prices, and spreads of fuel oil also showed different degrees of change. Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 1.34% [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On July 28, OPEC+ considered another production increase and urged member countries to comply with oil quotas. The price of Russia's Urals crude oil strengthened, and its discount to Brent narrowed to the lowest level since 2022. India's economic report expected global crude oil prices to remain low after OPEC's production increase exceeded expectations, and India's crude oil imports in June decreased by 4.7% month - on - month [10][11]. b. Demand - Mexico's state - owned oil company PEMEX's crude oil processing volume in the second quarter increased by 11% year - on - year. The refined oil price adjustment window will open on July 29. Russian Airlines canceled dozens of flights due to system problems [12]. c. Inventory - Fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts increased by 732,000 barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged [13]. d. Market Information - The market is cautious, and oil prices are expected to remain weakly volatile. The international crude oil price in this cycle fluctuated, and the retail price of refined oil is expected to be suspended. The market is trading on demand, and prices in the shipping fuel market are generally stable [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on the current market situation and future expectations [2][3][4] - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as international policies, economic data, supply and demand relationships, and seasonal patterns, and the trends of different products vary [15][16][20] Summary by Category Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, international oil prices declined, with Brent 09 contract down 1.98% and SC09 contract up 2.3%. After the EU's 18th round of sanctions against Russia, oil prices first rose and then fell. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices has weakened, and the oil price trend has shifted from strong to volatile [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Under the OPEC+ production increase path, there is an expected increase in the supply of high - sulfur heavy resources. The impact of sanctions on major high - sulfur fuel oil producing areas is limited, and demand lacks drive. FU cracking continues to decline. LU's unilateral trend follows crude oil, but its increase has been less than that of SC since mid - July, and its cracking has also declined [21] - **Asphalt**: In August, refinery production is expected to decline significantly compared to July. Social inventory has slightly increased, while factory inventory has decreased significantly. Overall, supply increase resilience needs to be observed, demand remains weak but has recovery expectations, and low inventory supports prices, with the BU price showing an upward trend [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Middle - East production pressure persists, and overseas prices continue to fluctuate weakly. Import costs have declined, but PDH margins remain stable. Domestic supply and demand are both weak, and the domestic gas price is under pressure at the top. The market is in a summer off - season pattern, and the futures price fluctuates weakly [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: The recent macro - sentiment is positive, and precious metals are relatively stable. Due to high uncertainty in US tariff policies, precious metals are mainly in a volatile state, and the gold - silver ratio still has room to decline [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Last Friday, LME copper rose close to $9,800, and SHFE copper's main contract shifted to 2509. The domestic copper industry's capacity regulation space is limited. The previous 2508 option portfolio expired this week [4] - **Aluminum**: Affected by the news of the upcoming ten - key - industry growth - stabilization plan, non - ferrous metals are generally strong. Aluminum ingot and billet inventory accumulation is not smooth, and SHFE aluminum may maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term [5] - **Zinc**: Black prices have rebounded, and the market sentiment has improved. The import window is closed, and the external market drives the internal market up. However, downstream acceptance of high - priced zinc is low, and supply is expected to increase. The SHFE zinc term structure has flattened, and it is still considered a rebound - under - pressure situation [8] - **Lead**: Both domestic and foreign inventories have increased, and the export of lead - acid batteries is affected by tariffs. The price has declined. However, the cost support is strong. The price has stopped falling at 16,800 yuan/ton and may face resistance at the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel has rebounded, and the market trading is active. The stainless - steel market is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. Technically, SHFE nickel still has room to rebound, and short - selling opportunities are awaited [10] - **Tin**: LME tin has been volatile, and SHFE tin is supported at 260,000 yuan. The main contract has shifted to 2509. Social inventory has increased. High - level short positions from the previous period are held [11] - **Other Metal - related Products** - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows SHFE aluminum and is in a strong - volatile state, but trading is inactive. Despite weak industrial demand, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and it may be more resilient than aluminum prices [6] - **Alumina**: On Friday night, alumina prices rose sharply. Supply - side policy expectations have strengthened, but domestic operating capacity has reached a historical high, and there is a possibility of mine restart in Guinea. After the sharp rise driven by expectations, there is a risk of correction [7] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: As of July 15, about 7% of US soybean - producing areas were affected by drought. The US - India trade agreement and Indonesia's potential B50 biodiesel plan have boosted US agricultural product prices. In China, oil - mill operating rates are high, and soybean - meal inventory is increasing. The price of soybean meal is mainly guided by US soybean - producing area weather [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil and Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has risen strongly, and soybean oil has followed. Indonesia's potential increase in biodiesel blending ratio and the competitiveness of its palm oil in the export market have pushed up prices. Long - term, a long - at - low strategy is recommended for vegetable oils [37] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed exports may be affected by Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to be volatile in the short term, and factors such as weather, policies, and biodiesel should be monitored [38] - **Corn**: Dalian corn rose on Friday night. Cofco's increased auctions have affected market expectations, and the auction success rate of US - imported corn was low. Dalian corn futures may continue to bottom - oscillate [40] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: Pig prices have rebounded slightly. However, the overall supply is abundant in the medium - term, and the industry can participate in short - hedging at high prices [41] - **Eggs**: Large - sized egg prices have strengthened slightly, while small - sized egg prices have weakened. Cold - storage eggs are being released, suppressing price increases. Long - term, the egg - price cycle has not bottomed out [42] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton has risen continuously, but there are concerns about a potential short - squeeze. Pure - cotton yarn prices have increased, but downstream procurement is still cautious. Attention should be paid to the impact of the textile - industry growth - stabilization plan [43] - **Sugar**: US sugar is in a downward trend, and the Brazilian production outlook is negative. In China, sugar imports are low, and domestic sugar sales are fast. The uncertainty of Guangxi's sugar production in the 25/26 season has increased, and sugar prices are expected to be volatile [44] - **Apples**: Apple futures are volatile. New - season early - maturing apples are on the market, and prices have increased year - on - year. The market is focused on new - season yield estimates, and a short - biased strategy is recommended [45] - **Wood and Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood futures have rebounded significantly. Spot prices are stable, and due to low inventory and historical - low prices, there is an expectation of price increase. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the upward momentum is insufficient [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp futures have continued to rise. Port inventory has decreased, but domestic imports are still high. Demand is in the traditional off - season, and a wait - and - see or short - term trading strategy is recommended [47] Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index**: A - shares have increased in volume and oscillated higher. US economic data has been positive, and policies have boosted market risk appetite. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese economy, and a strategy of increasing technology - growth stocks on the basis of dividend - asset allocation is recommended [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury - bond futures have oscillated. The market has fully priced in the expectation of monetary easing. In the short - term, there is a risk of increased volatility [49] Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is still strong, and most airlines may raise prices in early August. The market is in a game between strong reality and weak expectations. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations [20] Chemicals - **Methanol**: Methanol imports have increased significantly, and port inventory has accumulated rapidly. Domestic producers are planning autumn maintenance, but some may postpone it due to good profits. Demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to macro and downstream - device changes [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Domestic pure - benzene production has increased slightly, and port supply is abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the third - quarter mid - to - late stage, but pressure in the fourth quarter. A month - spread band - trading strategy is recommended [26] - **Styrene**: Styrene futures are in a consolidation pattern. Main - port inventory has increased significantly, and the basis has weakened, dragging down the futures market [27] - **Polypropylene and Polyethylene**: The cost - side oil price is volatile. Polyethylene supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Polypropylene has some support from ongoing maintenance, but downstream demand is still sluggish [28] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: Affected by the news of backward - capacity elimination, PVC has shown a strong trend. Caustic soda is also strong, but there are concerns about long - term supply increases and weak downstream acceptance [29] - **PX and PTA**: PTA's processing margin is low, and demand is weak, which drags down PX. There are expectations of PTA processing - margin repair [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production has declined, and port inventory has decreased. The price has strengthened, and a short - term long - position strategy is recommended [31] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Chips**: Short - fiber production has increased, and inventory has decreased slightly. Bottle - grade chips production has decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. The short - fiber spot processing margin has repaired, while the bottle - grade chips processing margin has oscillated [32]

Group 1 - The majority of domestic futures main contracts have risen, with coking coal increasing by over 2% [1] - SC crude oil, European shipping, rubber, and palm oil have all risen by more than 1.5% [1] - In terms of declines, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) has dropped by over 1%, and polysilicon has decreased by nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that domestic futures main contracts have mostly risen, with coking coal increasing by nearly 4% [1] - Other commodities such as logs, polysilicon, SC crude oil, rubber, No. 20 rubber (NR), coke, and PX have all seen increases of over 2% [1] - In contrast, lead and gold futures have experienced slight declines [1]