| 序号 | 合打名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 秀价 | 大型图片 | 英语 | 老店 | 成交量 | 液肤 | 持创学 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 线材2601 M | 3420 | I | 3419 | 3441 | 3.01% | 3 | 1 | 446 | 100 | 140 | 70 | | 2 | #1 2601 M | 11145 | 5 | 11145 | 11150 | 2.29% | 91 | 152 | 286431 | 250 | 157984 | 10391 | | 3 | 焦炭2601 M | 1666.5 | 1 | 1666.0 | 1667.5 | T.86% | 0 | 1 | 16954 | 30.5 | 41385 | -499 | | 4 | 焦煤2601 M | 1161.0 | 22 | 1160.5 | 1161.0 | 1.22% | 51 | 85 | 700639 | 14.0 | 596 ...

| BNB | 1027 | +2.4% | | --- | --- | --- | | $18.1亿 -2.7% | | | | SUI | 3.446 | +7.53% | | $17.7亿 +6.0% | | | 根据Coinglass数据，近24小时全球共有超过16万人被爆仓，爆仓总金额达6.24亿美元。 欧美股市、加密货币全线大涨，超16万人爆仓 昨日，美股三大股指集体低开，但盘中均转涨。截至今晨收盘，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指涨0.09%，纳指涨0.42%，标普500指数涨0.34%，标普和道 指齐创新高。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨1.44%，热门中概股普遍上涨，百度、世纪互联涨超4%，京东涨超3%，阿里巴巴涨超2%，哔哩哔哩、小鹏汽车 涨超1%。 欧洲主要股指收盘普涨，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.99%，英国富时100指数涨1.05%，德国DAX30指数涨1.08%，法国CAC40指数涨0.9%。 加密货币全线大涨，比特币涨3.7%。以太坊站上4300美元/枚，日内涨超4%。 | BTC | 117135 | +3.7% | | --- | --- | --- | | $848.6亿 +5.9% | ...

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai silver rose 3.90%, fuel oil nearly 2%, SC crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) over 1%. On the downside, coking coal and glass dropped over 3%, coke and pulp over 2%, and soda ash, caustic soda, rebar, and rubber over 1% [3]. - International precious metals generally closed higher. COMEX gold futures rose 0.50% to $3789.8 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 2.27%; COMEX silver futures rose 2.77% to $46.365 per ounce, with a weekly gain of 7.95% [4]. - International oil prices fluctuated narrowly. WTI crude futures rose 0.32% to $65.19 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.47%; Brent crude futures rose 0.35% to $68.82 per barrel, with a weekly gain of 4.21% [5]. - London base metals all declined. LME zinc fell 1.37% to $2886.50 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.09%; LME nickel fell 0.81% to $15155 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.76%; LME lead fell 0.69% to $2001.50 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.25%; LME copper fell 0.53% to $10205 per ton, with a weekly gain of 2.16%; LME aluminum fell 0.36% to $2649 per ton, with a weekly loss of 0.84%; LME tin fell 0.07% to $34415.00 per ton, with a weekly gain of 0.71% [5]. - International agricultural futures showed mixed trends. US soybeans rose 0.17%, US corn fell 1.00%, US soybean oil fell 0.24%, US soybean meal rose 0.62%, and US wheat fell 1.52% [7]. 2. Important Information Macro Information - The National Energy Administration released power industry statistics for January - August. As of the end of August, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.69 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 18%. Among them, solar power installed capacity was 1.12 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 48.5%; wind power installed capacity was 0.58 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. From January to August, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment were 2105 hours, a decrease of 223 hours compared to the same period last year [9]. - The third-quarter (110th) meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China was held on September 23. The meeting mentioned implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthening counter - cyclical adjustment, and enhancing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic stability and reasonable prices [9]. - Shanghai Shipping Exchange data showed that as of September 26, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1114.52 points, a decrease of 83.69 points from the previous period; the China Export Containerized Freight Index was 1087.41 points, a 2.9% decrease from the previous period [9]. - The Party Secretary and Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council held a symposium on the economic operation of some state - owned enterprises, focusing on stabilizing electricity and coal prices and preventing "involutionary" vicious competition [10]. - US consumer spending in August exceeded expectations, and underlying inflation remained stable. Real consumer spending increased 0.4% for the second consecutive month. The Fed's preferred core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and remained at 2.9% year - on - year, indicating economic robustness [10]. - On September 28, the UN Secretary - General's Office confirmed that six Iran - related sanctions resolutions of the UN Security Council had been re - enacted since 8 p.m. EDT on September 27 [11]. - Hamas stated that it had not received new proposals from mediators, and negotiations with Israel had been at a standstill since an assassination attempt on its leader in Doha [11]. - If the US federal government shuts down, the September employment report scheduled for release this Friday may be delayed [11]. - Trump said he was okay with a government shutdown if necessary. He will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday and attend a meeting with senior military generals on Tuesday [11]. - Richmond Fed President Barkin said upcoming data would determine further Fed rate cuts; Fed Governor Bowman strongly supported the Fed holding only Treasuries and ignoring one - time tariff impacts [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 25, East China port methanol inventory was 82.40 tons, a decrease of 2.78 tons from the previous week [14]. - As of September 25, PVC social inventory increased 1.84% month - on - month to 97.13 tons, a 16.23% year - on - year increase. East China inventory was 91.33 tons, a 2.18% month - on - month and 14.86% year - on - year increase [16]. - Seven government departments issued a work plan for the petrochemical industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of over 5% and addressing issues like fertilizer supply and capacity control [16]. - The arbitrage window for US crude oil exports to Asia may close due to soaring tanker freight rates and lower Middle East oil prices [16]. - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at this week's meeting [17]. Metal Futures - Global alumina production in August 2025 was 1.3301 million tons, compared to 1.2555 million tons in the same period last year and a revised 1.3182 million tons in the previous month. China's estimated production was 0.798 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [19]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a decrease in copper inventory by 7035 tons, aluminum by 3108 tons, lead by 8123 tons, nickel by 826 tons, and tin by 429 tons last week, while zinc inventory increased by 1229 tons [20]. - As of September 25, the national lead ingot social inventory was 42,200 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons from September 22 [20]. - The Indonesian mining minister said that mining companies meeting land - restoration fund requirements could have their mining licenses restored from "suspended" to "normal" [22]. - Eight government departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual value - added growth of about 5%, a 1.5% average annual increase in ten non - ferrous metal production, and other goals [22]. Black - series Futures - Mysteel data showed that the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 145.5068 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.69 million tons; at 45 ports, it was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.45%, a 0.47 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.22 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.01%, a 0.86 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week but a 39.40 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The daily hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a 13,400 - ton increase from the previous week [24]. - The China Coking Industry Association refuted false information about "forced production cuts" and "joint price increases" [24]. - SteelSilver e - commerce data showed that the total urban inventory this week was 9.0242 million tons, a 3.36% (313,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week. Construction steel inventory was 4.9196 million tons, a 5.10% (264,300 - ton) decrease from the previous week [25]. Agricultural Futures - The US agreed to consider tariff exemptions for Malaysian cocoa and palm oil products [28]. - Analyst Thomas Mielke predicted that global palm oil and soybean oil prices would rise by $100 - $150 per ton from January to June 2026 due to supply tightness [28]. - SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 25, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased 3.19% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased 0.18% month - on - month, and production decreased 4.14% month - on - month [28]. - SGS data showed that the estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from September 1 - 25 were 795,947 tons, a 14.73% decrease from the same period last month [29]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced the premium for alternative delivery products of jujube futures for contracts starting from 2612 [29]. - As of September 25, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports decreased 3.08% week - on - week to 277,200 tons [29]. - As of September 26, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was a loss of 74.11 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 236.57 yuan per head [29]. 3. Financial Market Finance - With the A - share market stabilizing, the private placement market has become active. As of September 28, 218 funds from 28 fund companies participated in private placement projects, with a cost of 5.864 billion yuan, exceeding last year's total, and over 90% of placements had floating profits [32]. - Bank wealth management subsidiaries have been more active in the equity market, conducting over 2100 research on A - share listed companies this year, focusing on the GEM and STAR Market. The issuance scale of equity and hybrid wealth management products has reached 72.7 billion yuan, exceeding last year's level [32]. - Many securities analysts expect the A - share market to gradually rise in the fourth quarter, with a focus on the technology growth sector [32]. - 1311 A - share listed companies have issued equity incentive plans this year, compared to 381 in 2024 [33]. - Hefei Youai Zhihé Robot Technology Co., Ltd. applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. If successful, it may become the "first mobile operation robot stock" [33]. - JD Industry submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange again, planning to issue about 253.3 million common shares [35]. - Micro - billion Intelligent Manufacturing, a provider of industrial embodied intelligent robots, applied for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [35]. - Hitcard, a four - year - old card company, is advancing its listing process after obtaining multiple rounds of financing [35]. Industry - Eight departments issued a work plan for the non - ferrous metal industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for value - added growth, resource development, and other goals [36]. - From January to August, national transportation fixed - asset investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with railway investment at 504.1 billion yuan, highway at 1.5412 trillion yuan, waterway at 143.3 billion yuan, and civil aviation at 70.7 billion yuan [36]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation issued regulations on food safety responsibilities of catering service chain enterprises [36]. - As of September 27, about 200 Chinese cities and counties have issued over 470 policies to stabilize the real estate market this year, and more policies are expected in the fourth quarter [38]. - Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing provident fund withdrawals for housing purchases and elevator renovation [38]. - Changchun adjusted its housing provident fund loan policy, with a minimum down payment of 15% for certain home purchases [38]. - Jiangsu Province suspended its automobile replacement subsidy policy at 24:00 on September 28 [38]. - Shanghai Future Industry Fund completed a capital increase from 10 billion yuan to 15 billion yuan and has invested in cutting - edge fields [39]. - The CSRC announced the 2025 classification evaluation results of securities companies, with 53 A - class companies, 43 B - class companies, and 11 C - class companies [39]. - The cement industry has increased production cuts due to the real estate market. Under the influence of a new work plan, the industry may reduce inefficient clinker production capacity by about 10% this year, and the cement price is expected to rebound [39]. - The predicted box office for the first day of the 2025 National Day holiday is 343 million yuan, with "The Volunteers: To the War," "Assassin in Red 2," and "Life of a Loser" leading the list [41]. Overseas - Trump will meet with four congressional leaders on Monday due to the risk of a US government shutdown. If the two parties cannot reach an agreement by September 30, some government agencies may shut down [42]. - Goldman Sachs analysts said the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising, which will impact the Fed's monetary policy [42]. - Due to the US tariff policy adjustments, the global trade friction index reached 110 in July, with the amount of trade friction measures increasing year - on - year and month - on - month [42]. - Over 3000 food products in Japan will see price increases in October [43]. Commodity - OPEC+ may approve an oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at the October 5 meeting [44]. Bond - On September 28, the bond market was stable, with small fluctuations in yields. The central bank conducted 181.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 181.7 billion yuan [46]. - The National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors reminded underwriting institutions to comply with regulations on debt - financing tool issuance [46]. - As of September 28, Henan Province has issued 270.635 billion yuan of special bonds this year, mainly for infrastructure and other fields [46]. Foreign Exchange - South Korea and the US reached an agreement on the exchange rate issue, and the US recognized that South Korea did not manipulate the exchange rate, clearing the way for South Korea to be removed from the US Treasury's exchange - rate manipulation monitoring list [47]. 4. Upcoming Events Economic Indicators - Japan's July coincident/leading indicators final value will be released at 13:00 [49]. - Spain's September CPI preliminary value will be released at 15:00 [49]. - The UK's August central bank mortgage approvals will be released at 16:30 [49]. - The Eurozone's September industrial/economic sentiment index and consumer confidence index final value will be released at 17:00 [49]. - The US's August pending home sales index will be released at 22:00 [49]. - The US's September Dallas Fed business activity index will be released at 22:30 [49]. Events - 240.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will mature at 09:20 [51]. - Bank of Japan board member Noguchi Akira will give a speech at 13:30 [51]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on cultural and tourism development achievements at 14:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Madis Müller will speak on the digital euro at 14:30 [51]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a September press conference at 15:00 [51]. - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a press conference on China - Nordic economic and trade cooperation at 15:00 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone will speak on the digital euro at 15:10 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno will give a speech at 16:30 [51]. - ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel and the German Banking Association will exchange views on monetary policy at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel will give a speech at 17:00 [51]. - ECB Governing Council member Boris Vujčić will give a speech at 19:35 [51]. - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will participate in a policy

本周原油期货价格开启连续反弹模式，近3个交易日内，国际标杆油价表现亮眼。其中，布伦特原油、 WTI原油期货价格涨幅均为4.6%，内盘SC原油期货价格涨幅为3.8%，同时内外盘价差有所回落。 海通期货分析师赵若晨认为，当前对油价最直接的支撑来自两方面：一方面是地缘冲突导致的供应担 忧，乌克兰对俄罗斯能源设施的袭击，直接削弱了俄罗斯的炼油能力与出口能力；另一方面是美国周度 库存数据的"助攻"，近期美国原油呈现去库态势，说明供需层面暂时未给油价带来强下行压力，油价底 部仍有支撑。同时，月差在油价反弹时同步走强，也意味着当前市场多头力量仍较强势，油价短期难以 破位下行。 记者在采访中了解到，本周油市的偏强表现，并非单一因素推动，而是俄乌局势、伊朗核问题谈判、委 内瑞拉出口限制等多方面因素共同作用的结果，其中俄乌局势的动态尤其牵动市场神经。 不过，需注意的是，原油市场的基本面在夏季需求旺季之后已逐渐转向宽松。采访中，多位业内人士提 到，美联储降息落地后，当前主导原油市场走势的核心矛盾，正围绕 "地缘溢价"与"供应过剩担忧"展 开，这一博弈将直接决定油价未来的方向。 赵若晨认为，虽然地缘冲突会带来风险溢价，但支撑作用往往 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper remain tight. Domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly, supporting the upward movement of copper prices. It is recommended to buy on dips in moderation [9]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are gradually tightening, and its price is expected to be strong in the short term [11]. - The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term. Recently, the oil price is oscillating, and it is advised to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt will both increase, and its price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [14]. - PP is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate in the near term with limited downside [17]. - The upside space of PVC is expected to be limited in the near term [19]. - Coking coal still maintains a relatively strong trend [20]. - Urea is still building a bottom in oscillation, with a chance of rebound later, but the loose pattern has not reversed [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 19, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Container shipping to Europe dropped 6%, PX and PTA fell over 2%, and SC crude oil, bottle chips, and staple fiber dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, industrial silicon rose over 3%, rapeseed meal rose over 2%, and caustic soda, lithium carbonate, coking coal, and rapeseed oil rose over 1% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of CSI 300 (IF) rose 0.55%, the main contract of SSE 50 (IH) rose 0.34%, the main contract of CSI 500 (IC) rose 0.34%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 (IM) fell 0.21% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of 2-year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.05%, the main contract of 5-year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.13%, the main contract of 10-year treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.21%, and the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.77% [7]. - As of 15:17 on September 19, in terms of capital inflow of domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai gold 2512 inflowed 2.922 billion yuan, Shanghai silver 2512 inflowed 1.823 billion yuan, and iron ore 2601 inflowed 816 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai copper 2510 outflowed 867 million yuan, SSE 50 2512 outflowed 537 million yuan, and polysilicon 2511 outflowed 284 million yuan [7]. Specific Futures Analysis Shanghai Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened low and moved high. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years [9]. - As of September 12, China's spot smelting fee (TC) was -$41.42 per dry ton, and the RC fee was -4.16 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable [9]. - Factory seasonal maintenance plans will still lead to production cuts in September and October. Currently, the profitability of small and medium-sized smelters is under pressure, and the supply of refined copper remains tight [9]. - In August, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1715 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.24% and a year-on-year increase of 15.59%. Affected by policies, the supply of scrap copper in September will decrease significantly, and smelters have maintenance plans in September. It is expected that the electrolytic copper production in September will drop significantly [9]. - Currently, it is approaching the peak season. Although the price has been pushed up recently, the downstream trading atmosphere has improved. The realization of the peak season expectations still needs to be observed [9]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased slightly, with an increase of 6,633 tons compared with last week. The import volume has increased, and the high price has suppressed copper demand, gradually starting the inventory accumulation trend [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high today. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan per ton, a increase of 50 yuan per ton compared with the previous working day. The spot transaction price continued to rise in an oscillating manner [10]. - On the supply side, affected by the mine license, the proportion of lithium carbonate produced from lepidolite raw materials has dropped to 15%. Spodumene has gradually become the most important raw material for lithium carbonate. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo mining area. Currently, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate is at a relatively high level year-on-year [11]. - On the demand side, the total domestic demand for lithium carbonate in August reached 102,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.49%. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, the customer collection in the first half of September increased by 1.2% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 8.8% compared with the second half of August. The orders in the first half of September increased by 2.0% compared with the same period in August and decreased by 16.6% compared with the second half of August. Before the double festivals, the downstream restocking sentiment has improved [11]. Crude Oil - The peak travel season for crude oil is basically over. Currently, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased significantly more than expected, but refined oil inventories have increased more than expected, alleviating the previous supply concerns. The overall oil product inventory continues to increase, and the operating rate of US refineries has dropped by 1.6 percentage points [12]. - On September 7, eight OPEC+ countries decided to adjust the production by 137,000 barrels per day from the additional voluntary production cut of 1.65 million barrels per day announced in April 2023, which will be implemented starting from October 2025. This 1.65 million barrels per day of production can be partially or fully restored according to market conditions and will be carried out in a gradual manner [12]. - This will increase the pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The latest IEA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil again. Saudi Aramco has lowered the shipping price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, to Asia in October by $1 per barrel [12]. - Currently, after the discount of Russian crude oil has widened, India continues to import Russian crude oil, and India and the US are still in negotiations. Attention should be paid to the progress of the ceasefire agreement negotiation between Russia and Ukraine and India's procurement of Russian crude oil [12]. - The subsequent consumption peak season is about to end. The weak US non-farm payrolls data has made the market worried about crude oil demand, and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases. The supply and demand of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium and long term [12]. - Recently, the previous sharp drop in crude oil prices has partially released the negative impact of the OPEC+ meeting. The market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil [12]. - Trump said that Putin was disappointing and urged countries to stop buying oil from Russia, but at the same time said that the oil price needed to be further lowered to force Russia to withdraw from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [12]. - In addition, countries such as Iraq have submitted the latest compensation plans, with a cumulative compensation of 4.779 million barrels per day, of which the compensation production in October 2025 is 235,000 barrels per day, alleviating the pressure of supply increase [12]. - Israel launched an attack on the Hamas ceasefire negotiation delegation in Qatar, and the geopolitical risk in the Middle East has increased. Ukraine has increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Crude oil is oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [12]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week decreased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 34.4%, which is 6.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The asphalt operating rate has decreased slightly and is still at a relatively low level in recent years [14]. - According to Longzhong Information data, the expected asphalt production in China in September is 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons, an increase of 11.3%, and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons, an increase of 34.1% [14]. - This week, the operating rates of various downstream industries of asphalt have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt has increased by 1.69 percentage points month-on-month to 30.31%, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [14]. - This week, North China has mainly executed previous contracts, and the shipment volume has increased significantly. The national shipment volume has increased by 31.10% month-on-month to 313,600 tons, at a neutral level [14]. - The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries has decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [14]. - The US has allowed Chevron to resume oil production in Venezuela, which may reduce the discount of asphalt raw materials purchased by China [14]. - Next week, the devices of Dongming Petrochemical, Shandong Jincheng, etc. will operate stably, and Henan Fengli has a plan to resume production. The asphalt production will increase. The weather in the north is okay, and many projects are rushing to work. However, the rainfall in some southern areas has increased, and the funds are restricted. The market is cautious, which affects the demand for asphalt [14]. - Recently, the crude oil futures price has oscillated narrowly, and the cost support for asphalt is limited [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has increased by 0.59 percentage points month-on-month to 51.45%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving has increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 43.6%, and the plastic weaving orders have continued to increase slightly, slightly higher than the same period in the previous two years [15]. - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as the second line of Yangzi Petrochemical restarted. The operating rate of PP enterprises has dropped to about 81%, at a neutral and relatively low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawn yarn has dropped to about 28.5% [15]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [15]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [15]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 450,000 tons per year of the second line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production at the end of August, and another production line of 450,000 tons per year of the first line of CNOOC Ningbo Daxie PP Phase II was put into production in early September. Recently, the number of overhaul devices has decreased slightly [15]. - The weather has improved, and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rate of plastic weaving continues to increase. Most downstream industries of PP are expected to continue to rise. The pre-holiday restocking of the downstream may bring some boost, but the current peak season demand is lower than expected, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement [15]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the PP industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [16]. Plastic - On September 19, the overhaul devices such as Jinghai Chemical's HDPE restarted. The operating rate of plastic has increased to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level [17]. - The downstream operating rate of PE has increased by 0.75 percentage points month-on-month to 42.92%. The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season. The orders for agricultural film and the raw material inventory of agricultural film continue to increase, but the growth rate has slowed down. The orders for packaging film have also increased, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years [17]. - The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September is average, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period over the years [17]. - On the cost side, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The inventory of US distillate oil has increased significantly, and the crude oil price has dropped [17]. - On the supply side, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Jilin Petrochemical's HDPE was put into production at the end of July, and the operating rate of plastic has increased [17]. - The agricultural film is gradually entering the peak season, the prices of agricultural film in various regions are stable, and the subsequent demand will further increase. The agricultural film enterprises are continuously restocking before the double festivals, the orders are gradually accumulating, and the operating situation has improved slightly, which may bring some boost, but the current peak season is not as good as expected [17]. - There is still no actual anti-involution policy in the plastic industry. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [17]. PVC - The price of upstream calcium carbide in the northwest region has continued to increase by 25 yuan per ton [18]. - Currently, on the supply side, the operating rate of PVC has decreased by 2.98 percentage points month-on-month to 76.96%. The operating rate of PVC has decreased and dropped to a neutral and relatively high level in the same period over the years [18]. - During the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream operating rate of PVC has continued to increase and has begun to exceed the same period last year, but it is still lower than other years [18]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China has raised its quotation in September by $10 - 25 per ton. On August 14, India announced the latest anti-dumping duty on imported PVC, of which the duty on the Chinese mainland has been raised by about $50 per ton. The export expectation of Chinese PVC in the second half of the year has weakened [18]. - However, after the recent decrease in export prices, the export orders have strengthened month-on-month [18]. - This week, the social inventory has continued to increase and is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large [18]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. The year-on-year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year-on-year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion have further decreased [19]. - The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities has decreased month-on-month and is still near the lowest level in the same period over the years. The improvement of the real estate market still needs time [19]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor-alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC has increased this week and is still relatively high [19]. - In terms of new production capacity, Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 tons per year production capacity has been put into mass production in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 tons per year production capacity is expected to be stably produced at the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 tons per year production capacity was put into production in early September, and Gansu Yaowang's 300,000 tons per year production capacity is in the trial production stage in September [19]. - The anti-involution sentiment has resurfaced, but there is still no actual policy in the PVC industry. Most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. Of course, anti-involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro policies, which will affect the subsequent market [19]. - The cost support for PVC has strengthened, and the downstream has restocked before the festival. However, the devices of Heilongjiang Haohua, Gansu Jinchuan, etc. will resume production next week. The basis of PVC is relatively low, and the upside space of

Group 1 - The domestic futures main contracts mostly declined on September 19, with significant drops in various commodities [1] - The shipping index for Europe fell over 4%, while PX decreased by more than 2% [1] - SC crude oil dropped nearly 2%, and PTA, short fiber, bottle chips, and styrene (EB) all fell by over 1% [1] Group 2 - In contrast, there were increases in caustic soda, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and lithium carbonate, each rising by over 1% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Group 1 - The majority of domestic commodity futures closed lower on September 17, with significant declines in various contracts [2] - The main contract for container shipping on the European route fell nearly 7%, while soybean meal and polysilicon dropped over 2% [2] - Other commodities such as alumina, Shanghai silver, and soybean No. 2 also experienced declines close to 2%, with live pigs and soybean meal dropping over 1% [2] Group 2 - In contrast, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) increased by nearly 2%, while SC crude oil and fuel oil rose by over 1% [2]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The report suggests to continue watching the crude oil market unilaterally, while the monthly spread may still rebound [1]. Detailed Summary by Section 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $67.49/bbl, up $1.1, with a $3.90 premium over WTI due to North Sea field maintenance and geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) at $63.67/bbl, up $1.04, with Cushing inventory down 2.8 million barrels and strategic reserve repurchase started [2]. - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium over Oman due to strong refinery feed demand [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with OSP cut to compete for Asian buyers [2]. - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, with a $9.58 discount to Brent and increased shipments [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread at $3.9/bbl, influenced by Cushing inventory decline and export facility congestion [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread at $0.28/bbl, affected by Middle - East OSP reduction and market competition [3]. - ESPO - Dubai spread at -$1.41/bbl, due to increased Russian exports [3]. - Midland - Cushing spread at $0.95/bbl, caused by pipeline capacity issues [3]. 3. Device Impact - Ukraine's attack on Russia's Primorsk terminal affected Urals crude, increasing price by $2.1/bbl immediately [5]. - Saudi's October OSP cut affected Middle - East medium crude, decreasing price by $1.02/bbl for a month [5]. - US strategic reserve repurchase is expected to affect WTI, increasing price by $0.5/bbl [5]. - Indonesia's Pertamina增产计划 will affect Southeast Asian light crude, decreasing price by $0.75/bbl in the long - term [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan VLCC freight at w64.5, up 0.15, due to Red Sea route insurance premium increase [6]. - US Gulf - China VLCC freight at $8.45m, up $1.9m, because of Panama Canal restrictions [6]. - West Africa - China Suezmax freight at w107.5, up 0.08, due to India's procurement shift [6]. 5. Different Oil Types Comparison - 92 unleaded gasoline cracking spread at $22/bbl, up 1.1, due to low Southeast Asian inventory and emergency procurement [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel cracking spread at $6.93/bbl, up 0.84, due to increased Chinese bunker fuel demand [7]. - 10ppm diesel cracking spread at $19/bbl, up 1.35, due to high African import demand [7]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread at -$2.25/bbl, down 0.95, due to delayed refinery restart in Australia [7]. 6. Key Market News - Iran's highest national security council explained the cooperation agreement with the IAEA [8]. - Ukraine attacked Russia's Kirishi refinery, causing a fire [8]. - Trump threatened new sanctions on Russia and mentioned NATO's oil purchase from Russia [8]. - US oil drilling rig count increased to 416 as of September 12 [8].

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View The supply increase suppresses the rebound of crude oil, and it is recommended to wait and see again. The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][8]. Section Summaries 1. Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) price is $67.49/bbl with a daily change of $1.1. The North Sea oilfield maintenance reaches its peak, and the shooting down of a Russian drone by Poland boosts the geopolitical premium [2]. - WTI (NYMEX) price is $63.67/bbl with a daily change of $1.04. Cushing inventory decreases by 2.8 million barrels weekly, and the strategic reserve repurchase starts [2]. - Dubai (Platts) price is $71.72/bbl with a daily change of $0.84. Middle - East refinery feed demand is strong, and the November spot premium hits a new high [2]. - Murban (ADNOC) price is $70.1/bbl with a daily change of -$1.02. The official selling price is lowered by $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude oil [2]. - Urals (CIF) price is $57.91/bbl with a daily change of $0.54. Indian refineries make bargain purchases, and the Baltic Sea loading volume increases by 15% month - on - month [2]. 2. Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent - WTI spread is $3.9/bbl, affected by the decline in Cushing inventory. The congestion of US Gulf export facilities intensifies, and the European arbitrage window closes [3]. - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl, due to the Middle - East OSP cut. Saudi Arabia reduces Asian long - term contract volumes, and the spot market competition heats up [5]. - ESPO - Dubai spread is -$1.41/bbl, caused by the increase in Russian exports. Russian oil companies use a new method to avoid price limits: delivering a mixture of Omani crude oil [5]. - Midland - Cushing spread is $0.95/bbl, due to pipeline capacity constraints. An EPIC pipeline failure causes more than 5 million barrels of accumulation in the Permian Basin [5]. 3. Device Impact - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 b/d device is under maintenance from August 27 to early October, affecting Sakai crude oil. Japanese gasoline inventory drops to a five - year low, and emergency reserves are released [5]. - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 b/d device maintenance is postponed to the end of September, affecting ESPO crude oil. Zhoushan's commercial crude oil inventory breaks the historical peak [5]. - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 b/d device is under maintenance from September 15 to November 10, affecting North Sea Forties. The European diesel crack spread widens by $1.2/bbl [5]. - Reliance's 660,000 b/d device is planned for maintenance in October, affecting Middle - East heavy crude oil. India's early stockpiling narrows the Middle - East fuel oil discount [5]. 4. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - Persian Gulf - Japan route (VLCC): Freight is w64.5 with a weekly change of 0.15. Red Sea route insurance premiums increase by 300%, and shipowners detour around the Cape of Good Hope [6]. - US Gulf - China route (VLCC): Freight is $8.45m, an increase of $1.9m. The Panama Canal's traffic restrictions lead to tight shipping capacity [6]. - Singapore - East China route (LR2): Freight is $2.35m with a change of 0.12. China's bonded oil demand surges, and ship schedules are booked until three weeks later [6]. - West Africa - China route (Suezmax): Freight is w107.5 with a change of 0.08. India's procurement shifts to West Africa, squeezing Far - East shipping capacity [6]. 5. Comparison of Different Oil Types - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore): Crack spread is $22/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $83.27. Indonesian Pertamina makes an emergency purchase of October cargoes, and Southeast Asian inventory drops to a three - week low [6]. - 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is $6.93/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $492.08. China's bonded refueling demand surges, and 23 ships are waiting at Zhoushan anchorage [6]. - 10ppm diesel: Crack spread is $19/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $88.12. African diesel power generation demand is in the peak season, and West African imports reach a record high [6]. - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil: Crack spread is -$2.25/bbl, FOB price in Asia is $426. The restart of Australia's Viva refinery is delayed, and regional supply glut persists [6]. 6. Key Market News - OPEC Monthly Report: In August, OPEC+ crude oil production averaged 42.4 million barrels per day, an increase of 509,000 barrels per day compared to July as OPEC+ raised production [9]. - IEA Monthly Report: The 2025 world oil demand growth forecast is raised to 740,000 barrels per day (previously forecasted at 680,000 barrels per day) [9].