Core Insights - The gold market is entering 2026 with strong momentum driven by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite a thin market participation [1][4] - The primary drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are policy uncertainties, high government spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [1][9] - Central banks remain a significant structural support for gold, with many maintaining over 50% of their reserves in gold, indicating substantial reallocation potential [4][6] Demand Dynamics - Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a long-term diversification asset rather than a short-term hedge, with countries like Turkey, Russia, and India actively accumulating gold [6] - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing even during price increases [6] Price Projections - Major banks project gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce for 2026, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain loose [9] - The outlook for gold prices is not contingent on crises but rather on maintaining the current state of high debt, policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar [9]