摘要今日周三(1月7日)亚市时段，黄金带着多年历史性上涨动能进入2026年，虽2024-2025年屡创纪录高 位、频被指"超买"，但市场持仓拥挤度仍合理——贵金属调整中，黄金回撤幅度最小。更关键的是，机 构持仓还有显著扩张空间，本轮涨势并非短期投机推动，而是依托未到顶的结构性需求，可持续性更 强。 今日周三(1月7日)亚市时段，黄金带着多年历史性上涨动能进入2026年，虽2024-2025年屡创纪录高位、 频被指"超买"，但市场持仓拥挤度仍合理——贵金属调整中，黄金回撤幅度最小。更关键的是，机构持 仓还有显著扩张空间，本轮涨势并非短期投机推动，而是依托未到顶的结构性需求，可持续性更强。 黄金价格月线维持多头通道，但RSI处历史高位，乖离需以时间修正;周线围绕10周均线4230震荡， MACD高位死叉，倾向区间运行;日线关键在4318中轨与4520上轨间抉择，4小时布林收口，4380为上 沿、4300为下沿，等待放量突破。 【基本面解析】 关注上方阻力：4516-4544历史压力带;下方支撑：4230-4274、4115，极限4000。策略：区间内高抛低 吸，突破4400跟多、目标4516-4544;跌破423 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience high-level consolidation at the end of the year, with a target of reaching $5,000 in the coming year [1][4][6]. Market Analysis - On December 24, gold prices reached a historical high of $4,525.42 but faced profit-taking before the Christmas holiday, leading to expectations of a short-term correction [1]. - The opening of the market on December 25 saw gold prices strengthen due to the recovery of liquidity post-holiday and bullish sentiment driven by interest rate cut expectations [3]. - The dollar index showed signs of recovery but remained under pressure, suggesting limited impact on gold prices in the short term [3]. Future Projections - Predictions indicate that gold prices could rise by 27% in 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with further increases expected in 2025 driven by tariff policy concerns, geopolitical tensions, and ongoing central bank purchases [4][6]. - The average forecast for gold prices in 2026 is between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce, with a potential high of $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain stable [6]. - The fundamental factors supporting gold prices over the past two years are expected to persist and strengthen, contributing to a bullish market outlook for the next year [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in gold prices, dispelling previous bearish patterns and suggesting the potential for a new bull market [8]. - Weekly charts show a strong opening and breakout to new highs, increasing bullish momentum and indicating a target of $4,600 [9]. - Daily charts maintain an upward trend despite some weakening in bullish momentum, with key support levels identified at $4,480 and $4,460 [11].

Core Insights - The gold market is entering 2026 with strong momentum driven by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite a thin market participation [1][4] - The primary drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are policy uncertainties, high government spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [1][9] - Central banks remain a significant structural support for gold, with many maintaining over 50% of their reserves in gold, indicating substantial reallocation potential [4][6] Demand Dynamics - Central banks are increasingly viewing gold as a long-term diversification asset rather than a short-term hedge, with countries like Turkey, Russia, and India actively accumulating gold [6] - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing even during price increases [6] Price Projections - Major banks project gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce for 2026, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain loose [9] - The outlook for gold prices is not contingent on crises but rather on maintaining the current state of high debt, policy uncertainty, and a weakening dollar [9]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is entering 2026 with a historical upward trend, supported by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite low market participation [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 25, 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,479.42 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.11% with a daily high of $4,525.70 and a low of $4,448.32, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions persist [1]. Group 2: Structural Demand - The core drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are rooted in policy uncertainties, with the U.S. facing high fiscal spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [2]. - Central banks are a crucial support for the structural gold market, maintaining over half of their reserves in gold, while countries like Japan hold significantly less, indicating substantial reallocation potential [3]. - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing power despite high prices [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price failed to break through $4,502, indicating strong resistance at this level, with key support levels at $4,467 and $4,454 [4]. - The market is expected to continue a volatile pattern, with potential for upward movement if resistance levels are breached [4].

Core Viewpoint - Gold is expected to reach all-time highs in 2026, driven by structural factors rather than just reactive market conditions [1][6]. Price Movement - The spot gold price surpassed $4,500 per troy ounce for the first time, currently trading around $4,490 per ounce, marking a more than 70% increase in 2025, the best year since 1979 [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700 per ounce next year, with potential upside towards $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions remain favorable [3]. Market Drivers - Key drivers for gold's strength include elevated debt levels, policy uncertainty, fragile global alliances, and a declining dominance of the US dollar [2][6]. - The expectation of lower interest rates due to persistent inflation and uneven growth could further support gold prices, as gold typically performs well when real yields fall [3]. Investor Sentiment - Investor positioning in gold is relatively balanced compared to previous peaks, indicating that the market is not overcrowded [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold is likely to find support during pullbacks, attracting renewed interest from both retail and institutional buyers [5]. Future Predictions - Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will climb to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026, while other analysts expect gold to continue hitting record highs in 2026 [5][4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell have supported gold prices, as he downplayed inflation risks and emphasized weakness in the labor market, indicating a higher tolerance for inflation than for labor market softness [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The focus this week is on the U.S. non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 57 basis points by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Gold Prices - Strong economic data, particularly in the labor market, could lead to a hawkish adjustment in interest rate expectations, potentially causing gold prices to decline [1] - Conversely, weak data should further support precious metal prices as the market anticipates rate cuts [1] - Due to the Federal Reserve's dovish response mechanism, real yields may continue to decline, suggesting that gold prices should maintain an upward trend [1] - However, short-term hawkish adjustments in rate expectations may exert pressure on the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing renewed focus following a price surge above $63 per ounce, indicating strong upward momentum and potential for further increases [1][2]. Market Dynamics - Analysts note a significant increase in bullish sentiment as the gold-silver ratio briefly surpassed 80 but could not hold, leading to renewed interest from buyers [1][2]. - The recent price increase has prompted market participants to adjust their stop-loss levels, reflecting high confidence in the silver market's future performance [3][4]. Supply and Demand Factors - The ongoing global electrification and expansion of AI infrastructure are driving industrial demand for silver, while supply constraints remain unaddressed [4]. - The supply-demand gap is becoming a crucial factor in driving silver prices, reinforcing the market's belief in a long-term upward trend [4]. Valuation Perspective - Despite silver prices stabilizing above $63, they remain relatively low compared to gold prices, with historical gold-silver ratios typically ranging between 50 and 60 [4]. - Analysts predict the gold-silver ratio may decline to around 40, which could accelerate silver price increases, indicating that its relative value has not been fully realized [4]. Future Outlook - There are expectations that silver prices could reach $75 per ounce by 2026, with potential price adjustments providing attractive buying opportunities [2][5]. - Factors such as anticipated loose monetary policy, balance sheet expansion, and ongoing fiscal stimulus are expected to boost demand for hard assets, including precious metals [2][5]. - A recent 25 basis point interest rate cut has lowered policy rates to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, enhancing expectations for further monetary easing [2][5]. Long-term Investment Logic - The combination of multiple driving forces suggests a solid upward logic for precious metals, with silver offering a more attractive value proposition compared to gold [5]. - The potential for silver prices to rise further remains significant, with long-term investment value still worthy of attention in the current macroeconomic environment [5].

Group 1 - The silver price has surpassed $63 per ounce, attracting significant attention in the precious metals market, with potential for further increases [1] - The recent trend indicates a shift in capital back into the silver market, with $48 per ounce seen as a re-entry point for many investors, laying the groundwork for future price increases [1] - The core driver of rising prices is the expanding real demand, particularly due to the acceleration of global electrification and increased metal material needs in AI infrastructure [3] Group 2 - The silver market is characterized by a long-term tight supply and increasing demand, which is a key reason for the strong price performance [3] - Despite silver prices reaching $63, it remains undervalued compared to gold, with historical gold-silver ratios typically between 50 and 60, and some forecasts suggesting a potential drop to around 40 [3] - Retail investment demand remains resilient, providing additional support to the market, while recent policy rate cuts have contributed to a more accommodative monetary environment [3] Group 3 - Multiple factors, including potential declines in real yields and resistance in the dollar, contribute to a long-term bullish outlook for silver prices [4] - The silver market is currently in a phase of value reappraisal, indicating that the upward trend in silver prices may not be over and warrants ongoing attention [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to record a weekly increase following the Federal Reserve's anticipated 25 basis point rate cut this week, with investors hoping for further policy easing next year [1] Group 1: Gold Market - New York futures prices rose 0.2% to $4,322.20 per ounce, marking a cumulative increase of 1.9% for the week [1] - Gold's price movement is closely tied to broader policy outlooks and real yields, with expectations that it will continue to serve as a reliable macro sentiment indicator [1] Group 2: Silver Market - Silver futures reached a record high of $64 per ounce, driven by speculative interest amid supply shortage narratives [1] - Analysts suggest that while silver attracts speculation, gold's performance remains more influenced by macroeconomic factors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government is set to release a backlog of important data, including employment and inflation indicators, which are expected to show weakness, potentially lowering U.S. Treasury yields and reigniting market expectations for interest rate cuts in early 2026, while providing a rebound opportunity for gold that has been pressured by rising real yields [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming data release is anticipated to indicate a cooling U.S. economy, which could lead to lower Treasury yields [1] - Market expectations are leaning towards weaker U.S. data, which may influence investment strategies [1] Group 2: Gold Market Outlook - Recent declines in gold prices appear to be more of a position adjustment rather than a trend reversal [1] - The outlook for gold remains positive, with investors closely monitoring U.S. real yields, a weakening dollar, and forthcoming economic data [1] - If the data suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy, gold is expected to rebound in the following week [1]