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“反内卷”上升至国家战略行动
财富FORTUNE· 2025-07-25 13:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant revision of the Price Law in China, addressing the challenges of "involution" in various industries and the government's strategic shift towards regulating irrational price competition and promoting orderly exit of excess capacity [1][5][8]. Group 1: Price Law Revision - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have jointly released a draft for the revision of the Price Law, marking the first major update in 27 years [1]. - The draft aims to tackle the new economic challenges, including the prevalence of market-formed prices and the emergence of new economic models, while addressing issues of irrational low-price competition [1][2]. Group 2: Involution and Its Impact - "Involution" is characterized by excess capacity leading to continuous downward pressure on prices, resulting in irrational competition among enterprises [2]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in China has been in a downward trend for three consecutive years, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance [2]. Group 3: Industry Responses - The solar photovoltaic industry has seen a dramatic price drop of 70% over two years, despite record production, highlighting the adverse effects of overcapacity [4]. - Various industries, including glass and cement, are witnessing collective production cuts and regulatory measures to combat involution, indicating a government-led "capacity reduction 2.0" initiative [4][6]. Group 4: Government Regulation and Market Dynamics - The central government is shifting its focus from merely subsidizing struggling enterprises to establishing rules that allow market mechanisms to function effectively [5]. - The recent signals from the government regarding "anti-involution" have led to significant price increases in upstream resources like polysilicon and coking coal, with related stock markets showing positive reactions [6]. Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Some market participants anticipate a "反内卷" bull market in 2025, driven by industry consolidation and restructuring, although concerns about the sustainability of A-share market growth remain [7]. - The process of reducing excess capacity may initially suppress output and employment, but it is essential for long-term economic health and stability [7][8].