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格林大华期货早盘提示:三油,两粕-20260318
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 05:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall vegetable oil market remains relatively strong, with palm oil leading the way, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil being slightly weaker. For the two - meal market, the macro factor is the main driver, and the prices fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to operate with caution, not to chase short positions, and to enter new long positions in small amounts [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On March 17, due to concerns about the受阻 of US soybean export expectations and the increase in US soybean oil inventory, US soybean oil hit the daily limit down, driving the domestic vegetable oil market to diverge. Palm oil remained relatively strong, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil were weak. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed different degrees of decline or increase in positions [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On March 17, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to increased concerns about the deterioration of the global supply outlook. The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the soybean oil inventory of member companies in February 2026 reached a 13 - year high. Indonesia is accelerating the road test of B50 biodiesel. The MPOB report showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory, production, and exports in February decreased compared with the previous month. Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from March 1 - 15 increased by 56.9% compared with the same period last month. As of the 11th weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased slightly week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Paris economic and trade negotiation brought good news, and China promised to maintain the purchase of US soybeans in the next three years. The passage through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult, and crude oil hovers around $100, causing US soybean oil to stop falling and rebound. Indonesia restricts the export of related products. Domestically, China strictly inspects Brazilian soybeans. If the soybean clearance time is extended, the domestic soybean supply will be limited, which will support the futures market [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in oils and enter new long positions in small amounts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] 3.2 Two - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On March 17, domestic double - meal opened low and moved high, digesting overseas negative news, and the trend was relatively independent. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different degrees of price changes and position increases or decreases [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - Analysts predict that the US soybean crushing volume in February may reach a record high. Tensions in the Middle East may lead to a decline in soybean exports from Brazil and the US in the future. China promised to buy 2.5 billion tons of US soybeans annually in the next three years. Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is estimated to increase compared with the same period in 2025. As of the 11th weekend of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, and the inventory and contract volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal also changed [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the Sino - US economic and trade negotiation in Paris led to China's commitment to stable US soybean purchases, causing US soybeans to stop falling and stabilize. The domestic market was affected by the decline of US soybeans but was supported by inventory decline and strong spot prices. For rapeseed meal, the market is mainly driven by long - position funds, and the short - term downside space of the main contract is limited [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Hold existing long positions cautiously and mainly buy on dips. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [3]