Core Insights - South Korea is experiencing a "dual super cycle" driven by the AI chip boom and a structural shortage in real estate, leading to significant economic implications [1][2][5] Semiconductor Super Cycle - The global semiconductor industry is entering a structural upturn driven by AI computing and cloud infrastructure, with HBM and high-end DRAM supply constraints supporting prices and extending the cycle [4][10] - The semiconductor export surge is expected to result in a current account surplus of $164 billion by 2026, accounting for 7.6% of GDP, which is a historical high [18][23] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market in Seoul is entering a new super cycle, with apartment prices rising 7.2% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the national average of 0.5% [11][14] - A drastic decline of nearly 40% in new housing starts since 2022 has created a supply cliff, contributing to panic buying in the real estate market [12][13] Economic Growth Projections - Nomura has raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea from 1.9% to 2.3% for 2026, driven by the wealth effect from rising asset prices [6][23] - The liquidity influx from semiconductor exports is translating into asset price inflation across various categories [6][18] Investment Strategies - The Bank of Korea (BOK) is expected to maintain the policy rate at 2.50%, limiting further rate cuts despite strong economic growth and rising asset prices [3][23] - Investment strategies include focusing on capital-intensive tech stocks, particularly in the semiconductor sector, and benefiting from the consumer recovery in the automotive sector due to recent tariff agreements [20][22]