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长城基金梁福睿:科技为创新药按下发展“加速键”
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-06-26 09:23
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise of the innovative drug sector, with the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index increasing by 55.61% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index's 17.30% growth [1] - The innovative drug industry is transitioning from experience-based competition to technology-driven competition, positioning itself as a "tech-like" asset [1][2] - The trend of Chinese innovative drugs going global is irreversible and expected to strengthen, with a focus on whether Chinese companies can outperform their overseas counterparts in new target selection [2][6] Group 2 - The current price-to-sales (PS) valuation of innovative drugs is around 4 times, which is considered neutral in the context of asset scarcity, indicating potential for continued stock price increases as clinical data and business development improve [2][7] - The innovative drug market is characterized by high unmet medical needs, particularly in areas with few available treatment options, which presents opportunities for the development of blockbuster drugs [3][8] - The "double 10" rule in new drug development indicates an average development cycle of 10 years and costs exceeding $1 billion, highlighting the high-risk nature of the industry [4] Group 3 - China's innovative drug sector has made significant progress, with over 50% contribution to the top 20 global drug targets and surpassing Europe in original drug numbers as of 2021 [5][6] - The competition landscape is evolving into a scenario where both China and the U.S. are advancing in the innovative drug sector, with increased global competitiveness for Chinese companies [6] - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its strong performance, driven by its alignment with current market trends and the recovery of valuations after years of pressure [7][8] Group 4 - Specific areas with strong potential for new drug development include antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), GLP-1 metabolic disease drugs, and gene therapy for rare diseases [8] - For investors looking to enter the innovative drug market, a systematic investment approach through funds is recommended due to the high barriers and complexities involved in the sector [9]