反内卷供应
Search documents
宏观利好支持,煤焦偏强运行:煤焦日报-20251029
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 10:03
Report Information - Report Title: Coal and Coke Daily Report [4] - Report Date: October 29, 2025 [4] - Report Type: Futures Research Report [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Coke**: The spot market prices of coke in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port have increased week-on-week. Driven by macro利好 factors such as the progress of China-US trade negotiations and the expectation of supply improvement, the coke futures contract has shown a strong performance. However, the fundamental upward drivers are limited, and the relative advantages lie in the cost support from coking coal and the positive sentiment from the internal and external macro environment [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: On October 29, the coking coal futures contract closed at 1302 points, with an intraday increase of 3.50%. The spot price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port has also risen week-on-week. Affected by the repeated expectations of China-US trade negotiations and anti-involution, the coking coal market sentiment remains optimistic, and the price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes, and the strong expectations support the coking coal futures contract to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply changes in the main production areas [5][32]. Summary by Directory Industry News - **China-US Leaders' Meeting**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on China-US relations and issues of common concern [7]. - **Coking Coal Auction in Lvliang**: On October 29, the online auction of coking coal in the Lvliang market generally showed an upward trend. Among the 12 reported transaction results, one had a failed auction. The total listed volume was 146,000 tons, and the transaction volume was 139,000 tons. The average transaction price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Linxian County increased by 114 yuan/ton to 1398 yuan/ton; the average transaction price of high-sulfur main coking coal in Xiaoyi City increased by 74 yuan/ton to 1279 yuan/ton; the transaction price of medium-sulfur gas raw coal in Xingxian County decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 412 yuan/ton. The market is expected to remain strong in the short term [8]. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of Rizhao Port's quasi-first-class flat coke is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 3.29%, a month-on-month increase of 6.80%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.10%. The current price of Qingdao Port's quasi-first-class out-of-warehouse coke is 1510 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 1.34%, a month-on-month increase of 3.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.79% [9]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1340 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 2.29%, a month-on-month increase of 4.69%, and a year-on-year increase of 13.56%. The price of Australian coking coal at the Jingtang Port remains unchanged at 1640 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.86% and a year-on-year increase of 10.07%. The price of Shanxi coking coal at the Jingtang Port remains unchanged at 1740 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 1.75% and a year-on-year increase of 13.73% [9]. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active coke futures contract is 1801.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.90%. The highest price is 1810.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1745.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 23,477 lots, the volume difference is 6433 lots, the open interest is 40,489 lots, and the position difference is 756 lots [12]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract is 1302.0 yuan/ton, with an increase of 3.50%. The highest price is 1307.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1238.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 1,073,974 lots, the volume difference is 225,481 lots, the open interest is 706,691 lots, and the position difference is 56,327 lots [12]. Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: The report provides charts of the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, and port coke total inventory [13][14][15]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The report provides charts of the coking coal inventory at the mine mouth, port coking coal inventory, 247 sample steel mill coking coal inventory, and full-sample independent coking plant coking coal inventory [19][22][24][29]. - **Other Charts**: The report also includes charts of domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [26][27][30][31]. Market Outlook - **Coke**: The spot market prices of coke have increased week-on-week. Driven by macro利好 factors, the coke futures contract has shown a strong performance. However, the fundamental upward drivers are limited, and the relative advantages lie in the cost support from coking coal and the positive sentiment from the internal and external macro environment [5][32]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures contract has closed higher, and the spot price has also risen week-on-week. Affected by the repeated expectations of China-US trade negotiations and anti-involution, the coking coal market sentiment remains optimistic, and the price is oscillating strongly. In the short term, the fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes, and the strong expectations support the coking coal futures contract to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply changes in the main production areas [5][32].