Report Information - Report date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Report industry: Soybean meal [1] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points 1. Market Review - **Contract Performance**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3056, the opening price was 3044, the highest price was 3072, the lowest price was 3039, the closing price was 3066, with a gain of 10 and a gain - rate of 0.33%. The trading volume was 798340, the open interest was 2037475, and the change in open interest was - 10640 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3013, the opening price was 3003, the highest price was 3025, the lowest price was 3003, the closing price was 3020, with a gain of 7 and a gain - rate of 0.23%. The trading volume was 7748738, and the change in open interest was - 1163 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3028, the opening price was 3015, the highest price was 3044, the lowest price was 3009, the closing price was 3034, with a gain of 6 and a gain - rate of 0.20%. The trading volume was 55946, the open interest was 534307, and the change in open interest was 11836 [6]. - **External Market and Influencing Factors**: The US soybean futures contract in the external market fluctuated, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent correction of soybean meal was mainly due to the expectation of Sino - US trade consultations and the unexpectedly high previous US soybean good - to - excellent rate. As the US soybean harvest season approaches, the pressure on US farmers is increasing. China, as the largest buyer of US soybeans, has not purchased new - season US soybeans yet. The USDA's latest good - to - excellent rate this week was 65%, down from 69% the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [7]. 2. Core View - In the medium term, with the 23% tariff on imported US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans in the fourth quarter to replace US soybeans, supplemented by some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which may be supplemented by state - reserve auctions. Due to the decreasing supply of Brazilian soybeans, the marginal price may rise. Considering the weather factors, there is no possibility of a significant weakening of the Brazilian FOB quotation in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the受阻 import of Canadian rapeseed, the market should be treated as bullish after corrections [7]. 3. Industry News - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and down from 69% the previous week, the same as the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 94%, up from 89% the previous week, higher than 93% in the same period last year and equal to the five - year average. The defoliation rate was 11%, up from 4% the previous week, slightly lower than 12% in the same period last year and slightly higher than the five - year average of 10% [10]. - **USDA Export Inspection Report**: As of the week ending August 28, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 472,914 tons, in line with expectations (the previous market forecast was 200,000 - 500,000 tons). The previous week's revised volume was 393,189 tons. The export inspection volume to the Chinese mainland was 0 tons. As of the week ending August 29, 2024, the US soybean export inspection volume was 502,934 tons. So far this crop year, the cumulative US soybean export inspection volume was 49,763,188 tons, compared with 44,717,223 tons in the same period of the previous year [9][10][11]. - **USDA Monthly Crushing**: The US soybean crushing volume in July 2025 was 6.14 million short tons (204.7 million bushels), higher than 5.91 million short tons (197 million bushels) in June and 5.8 million short tons (193 million bushels) in July 2024 [11]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [15][19][14]

Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: The prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts, including 2601, 2509, and 2511, all declined. For example, the closing price of the 2601 contract was 3050, down 10 (-0.33%); the 2509 contract closed at 3006, down 7 (-0.23%); and the 2511 contract closed at 3022, down 11 (-0.36%) [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts were volatile, with the main contract at 1045 cents. The recent decline in soybean meal prices was mainly due to the expected Sino - US trade negotiations and the unexpectedly high excellent - rate of US soybeans [6]. Reasons for the Recent Decline - **Trade Negotiations**: With the approaching US soybean harvest season, US farmers are under increasing pressure. As the largest buyer of US soybeans, China has not purchased new - season US soybeans. The US Soybean Association urged Trump to repair trade relations with China, and Trump said he might visit China this year. There were also rumors of direct state - reserve purchases of US soybeans, causing the market to give back the previous optimistic premium [6]. - **Excellent Rate**: The latest excellent rate of US soybeans announced by USDA this week was 69%, higher than the expected 67%, the previous week's 68%, and the same period last year's 67%. The current excellent rate is the highest in the past five years, increasing the pressure of a bumper harvest [6]. Medium - term Outlook - **Import Substitution**: In the fourth quarter, with the 23% tariff on US soybeans remaining unchanged, China may mainly import Brazilian soybeans and supplement with some Argentine soybeans. There may still be a small import gap, which could be filled by state - reserve auctions [6]. - **Cost Trend**: As Brazilian soybeans are being sold out, the marginal price may rise. Considering weather factors, there is little possibility of a significant decline in the Brazilian FOB price in the fourth quarter. The cost of imported soybeans is likely to rise steadily in the fourth quarter. With the import of Canadian rapeseed blocked, the medium - term outlook is still bullish after corrections [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast**: StoneX predicted that the production of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season (sown in September) would reach a record 178.2 million tons, stable compared with the August forecast. If confirmed, the production would increase by 5.6% compared with the previous year due to the expected increase in planting area and average national yield [8]. - **Pakistan's Purchase Agreement**: Pakistan is expected to sign a major purchase agreement with major US soybean exporters, planning to import about 1.1 million tons of soybeans with a total transaction value of about $500 million [8]. - **Brazilian Regulatory Decision**: A Brazilian federal judge approved a ban, temporarily suspending a decision of the Brazilian antitrust regulator CADE, which required global soybean traders to stop the so - called "Amazon soybean ban" plan [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][13]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extension of the tariff suspension between the US and China, highlighting President Trump's approval and the ongoing trade negotiations aimed at increasing US agricultural exports, particularly soybeans, to China [2][4][5][7]. Group 1: Tariff Suspension and Negotiations - The US and China reached an agreement to extend the suspension of additional tariffs for another 90 days, maintaining the current 30% tariff rate until early November [2][5]. - The initial agreement in May led to a 115% reduction in additional tariffs, with both countries agreeing to suspend a 24% additional tariff for 90 days [4]. - Trump's final approval came just before the suspension deadline, indicating a continued commitment to trade discussions [2][4]. Group 2: Agricultural Exports and Market Access - Trump has urged China to increase its imports of US soybeans by four times, aiming to reduce the trade deficit and alleviate concerns among US soybean farmers about losing market share to Brazil [7]. - The ongoing negotiations also include discussions about opening Chinese markets to more US products, with a focus on agricultural exports [7]. - Trump expressed a desire to hold a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping if a trade agreement is reached by the end of the year [7]. Group 3: Broader Trade Context - The article notes that the US has initiated new tariff measures, but these do not apply to China, indicating a selective approach to trade policy [6]. - The discussions have also touched on issues such as China's export restrictions on rare earth materials and cooperation with US sanctions against Russia, although these were not formally on the agenda [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton market is in a destocking state, with tight supply before the new cotton is on the market. The demand side shows characteristics of the off - season in the textile industry, with low profitability and a decreasing operating rate of spinning enterprises. The new cotton planting area has increased, but there are high - temperature risks in some areas of Xinjiang. As prices rise, downstream procurement is cautious, demand is weak, and the upward momentum of the market is gradually weakening. The cotton 2509 contract has recently declined, showing an adjustment trend. It is recommended to wait and see, focusing on weather and the results of Sino - US trade negotiations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closed at 19,995 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan. - Cotton futures' top 20 net positions were - 27,006 hands, an increase of 6,225 hands; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions were - 264 hands, an increase of 293 hands. - The main contract positions of cotton were 413,662 hands, a decrease of 55,334 hands; those of cotton yarn were 7,641 hands, a decrease of 1,770 hands. - Cotton warehouse receipts were 9,156 sheets, a decrease of 70 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 91 sheets, unchanged. - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 20,720 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. [2] 现货市场 - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,721 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) was 22,116 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. - China's imported cotton price index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale tariff) was 14,430 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) was 23,994 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,140 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 1,179 yuan/ton, an increase of 119 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly output of cloth was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars. [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 16.15%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 16.14%, an increase of 1.87 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.65%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 8.52%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points. [2] Industry News - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 55%, compared with 57% the previous week and 49% the same period last year. - On Monday, the December contract of ICE cotton closed up 0.1%, the cotton 2509 contract fell 1.87%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract fell 1.91%. [2]

Group 1 - The third round of China-US trade negotiations is scheduled to take place in Stockholm, Sweden, next week, aiming to postpone the deadline for tariff increases set for August 12 [1] - The Swedish Prime Minister confirmed the hosting of the talks, emphasizing their significance for global trade and economy [1] - Discussions may include China's purchases of oil from Russia and Iran, which could complicate the trade dialogue [1] Group 2 - Experts suggest that using trade negotiations as a geopolitical tool could jeopardize the newly established trade consultation mechanism between the US and China [2] - The US is attempting to pressure other countries to help curb the Russian economy, but it is unlikely that China will comply with such demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Yellen, anticipates meetings with Chinese officials in the coming weeks to advance discussions on trade and other issues, indicating a willingness for broader cooperation between the U.S. and China [1] Group 1: Trade Discussions - Yellen mentioned that previous meetings in Geneva and London were productive, highlighting a respectful attitude from both sides [1] - The upcoming discussions aim to expand cooperation beyond trade to other areas, contingent on China's willingness [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the possibility of an upward breakthrough in stock indices is low without significant positive news. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by macro - economic conditions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock indices: Limited upward breakthrough possibility without positive news, be cautious about Sino - US tariff signals, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks suppress the upward space, with short - term oscillation and a solid long - term upward logic [1]. Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost risk appetite, but weak downstream demand limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and fluctuating macro - sentiment may lead to oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increasing production in the smelting end pressures the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - situation, with long - term pressure from first - grade nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak oscillation, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply shortage in the short term leads to high - level oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Short - term oscillation with heavy warehouse receipt pressure and supply - demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon iron: Oscillation due to weak supply and demand [1]. Building Materials and Energy - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance leads to a weakening price trend [1]. - Soda ash: Supply surplus concerns and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price [1]. - Coking coal: Can continue to short - sell, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse receipt cost of 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: Falls in line with coking coal as the cost of coal for furnace use decreases [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May have a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data in the MPOB report [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Weak fundamentals and the game with other oils, be vigilant against a rebound [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, affected by trade negotiations, weather, and consumption seasons [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the price may be affected by the sugar - alcohol ratio and crude oil prices [1]. - Corn: Tight supply - demand balance expected, with short - term oscillation [1]. - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation is strong, but the increase of MO9 is expected to be limited [1]. Chemicals - PTA: The tight situation is alleviating, and short - fiber costs are closely related [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continues to decline due to profit expansion and inventory reduction [1]. - Styrene: Bullish due to increased device load and concentrated inventory [1]. - PP: Oscillation is strong due to maintenance and rigid demand [1]. - PVC: Oscillation is weak due to increased supply pressure and seasonal factors [1]. - LPG: Supply increase, high port inventory, and weak demand suppress the price, and there are short - selling opportunities [1]. Others - Shipping: For container shipping on the European line, consider short - selling and long - buying strategies according to different contract periods [1]. - Fuel oil: Oscillation, affected by geopolitical situations and consumption seasons [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillation, with cost drag and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillation, with factors such as narrowing price difference, falling raw material prices, and reduced inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Expected to decline due to weak cost support and high inventory [1].

Group 1 - The current total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, stand at 935.91 tons, reflecting a decrease of 0.31 tons from the previous trading day [4] - On June 10, spot gold experienced fluctuations, reaching a high of $3349.20 per ounce and a low of $3300 per ounce, with a daily range of nearly $50, closing at $3322.49 per ounce, down $2.85 or 0.09% [4] - Market sentiment is relatively positive due to ongoing US-China trade negotiations, which may suppress gold prices in the short term if positive outcomes are reported [4] Group 2 - Analysts are closely monitoring the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, which will help assess the health of the US economy and predict the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory [4] - Recent strong performances in silver and platinum have drawn attention, with silver prices soaring over 35% since April's low, surpassing the $36 mark for the first time in 13 years [4][5] - UBS attributes the strong performance of platinum and silver to five common factors, including expected supply shortages and relative value attractiveness compared to gold [5] Group 3 - Technically, the overall outlook for gold remains bullish, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding above the midpoint, indicating a positive short-term outlook [5] - If gold prices gain upward momentum, they may test the strong resistance level at $3350, with further resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $3375 [5] - Conversely, if the daily close falls below the strong support level of $3300, it may challenge the 50-day moving average at $3260, followed by $3230 [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Next week (06.09 - 06.13), the price center of Dalian soybean meal futures is expected to move up, while the soybean No. 1 futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. For soybean meal, continue to focus on the weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas (goodness - of - growth rate, weather forecast) and Sino - U.S. trade consultations. The Sino - Canadian trade friction and consultations also affect the fluctuation of rapeseed meal, which indirectly impacts soybean meal. For domestic soybeans, the upper pressure is still the potential state - reserve soybean auction, while the small amount of market surplus grain and the stable - to - strong spot price support the downside space [7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **U.S. Soybean Sales and Shipment**: In the week of May 29, 2025, the weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans increased month - on - month but were at the lower end of expectations. The 2024/25 U.S. soybean export shipment was about 310,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 47%, and the cumulative export shipment was about 44.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The weekly net sales of U.S. soybeans to China in the 2024/25 crop year was - 0.1 million tons [2]. - **U.S. Soybean Planting Progress and Goodness - of - Growth Rate**: As of the week of June 2, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 84%, compared with 78% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 80%. The initial goodness - of - growth rate was 67%, lower than the market expectation of 68% and significantly lower than last year's 72%. However, the market focused more on the bearish impact of the faster planting progress and normal weather [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean CNF Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit**: As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for July - September delivery increased week - on - week, the average import cost increased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [2]. - **U.S. Soybean - Producing Area Weather Forecast**: According to the June 7, 2025, weather forecast, in the next two weeks (June 7 - June 21), the precipitation in the U.S. soybean - producing areas will be basically normal, and the temperature will be "low first and then high", with a neutral impact [2]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 120,000 tons, compared with about 80,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 186,000 tons in the previous week [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) decreased week - on - week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the weekly average basis was about - 61 yuan/ton, compared with about - 25 yuan/ton in the previous week [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of May 30, 2025, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 260,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of about 50% and a year - on - year decrease of about 66% [5]. - **Soybean Crushing Volume**: The weekly soybean crushing volume decreased slightly week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of June 6, 2025, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.24 million tons, and the operating rate was about 63%. Next week (June 7 - June 13), the oil mills' soybean crushing volume is expected to be about 2.29 million tons, with an operating rate of 64% [5]. Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - **Soybean Price**: The soybean price was stable to strong. In some northeastern regions, the net - grain purchase price of soybeans increased by 20 yuan/ton to 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton; in some inland regions, the price remained flat at 5140 - 5280 yuan/ton; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans increased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton to 4620 - 4840 yuan/ton [6]. - **New - Season Soybean Growth in Northeast China**: In some northeastern producing areas, the new - season soybeans are growing well. As of Friday, the new - season soybeans in Heihe, Bei'an, Qiqihar, and Arongqi areas are growing well, and the soil moisture is normal due to recent rainfall [6]. - **Sales Area Situation**: The soybean price in the sales areas continued to make up for the increase, but the demand remained weak. The downstream market accepted the price increase generally and purchased as needed. The demand for terminal edible soybeans was weak, and the sales of domestic soybeans were slow, but the rigid demand still existed [6]. Futures Price Performance - **U.S. Futures**: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main U.S. soybean 07 contract rose 1.51% week - on - week, and the main U.S. soybean meal 07 contract fell 0.10% week - on - week [1]. - **Domestic Futures**: In the week of June 6, 2025, the main domestic soybean meal m2509 contract rose 1.42% week - on - week, and the main soybean No. 1 a2507 contract rose 0.78% week - on - week [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significance of the recent phone conversation between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, focusing on trade issues, particularly regarding rare earth export controls and the status of Chinese students in the U.S. [1][2] - The conversation lasted for one and a half hours, resulting in positive conclusions for both countries, with Trump indicating that the issue of rare earth export controls should be resolved [1][2] - Both leaders expressed interest in future visits, with Xi welcoming Trump to China and Trump suggesting a visit to the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that the U.S. government had previously announced the cancellation of some Chinese student visas, but Trump reassured that the U.S. welcomes Chinese students to study in America [2] - The first round of ministerial-level consultations took place in Switzerland on May 10-11, where an agreement was reached to mutually reduce tariffs by 115% [2] - Xi emphasized the need for both sides to adhere to the consensus reached and urged the U.S. to reconsider its negative measures against China [2]