1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel, weekly data shows that production declines slightly following apparent demand, with overall apparent demand showing a small decrease. Hot-rolled coil apparent demand remains at a year-on-year high, while rebar apparent demand decreases year-on-year. Recently, steel mills' purchases of iron ore have led to a continuous decline in iron ore port inventories, and the resilient demand during the steel off-season supports the rise of iron ore. With the expectation of supply-side contraction under the "anti-involution" policy, the sentiment for going long on commodities is positive. The fundamentals of ferrous metals, including no inventory accumulation during the steel off-season and continuous de-stocking of raw materials, support the rebound of ferrous metals. From the perspective of the main contract positions, short positions in coking coal have left the market again in the past two days, long positions in steel have increased and prices have risen, and there are signs of long positions in iron ore reducing. The resistance levels for rebar and hot-rolled coil around 3,100 and 3,270 yuan have been removed, and the next pressure levels to watch are 3,250 and 34,000 yuan [1]. - For iron ore, the 09 contract showed a volatile upward trend yesterday. Fundamentally, last week's global iron ore shipments decreased month-on-month, with a slight increase in shipments from Australia and Brazil. Among them, shipments from Australia decreased slightly, while those from Brazil increased significantly. The arrivals at 47 ports increased last week. Based on the shipment data, the average subsequent arrivals are expected to decline. On the demand side, the impact of steel mill maintenance this week has decreased, the Tangshan production restrictions have ended, and the molten iron output has rebounded significantly. Steel mills have a good profit level and a strong demand for raw material replenishment. Currently, steel exports remain strong, and the short-term resilience of molten iron is maintained. Although the terminal demand faces the risk of weakening during the off-season, the current downstream orders provide some support. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes in molten iron. In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly this week, the port clearance volume increased slightly month-on-month, and the steel mills' equity ore inventories decreased significantly. Looking ahead, in July, the molten iron output is expected to continue the downward trend, with an average of around 2.38 million tons. Steel mill profits will continue to improve. In addition, although the steel mill production restriction policy in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 has reduced the demand for iron ore, production will resume after the policy ends. The "anti-involution" meeting has brought new supply-side policy expectations, and the continued high apparent demand for the five major steel products during the off-season indicates that the terminal demand still has support. In the short term, iron ore will operate in a volatile and upward trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2509 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the 9 - 1 spread [3]. - For coke, the futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, and the first round of spot price increases has been implemented. After the fourth round of price cuts on June 23, a phased bottom was formed, and market expectations began to improve. Mainstream coking enterprises initiated the first round of price increases, which were accepted by mainstream steel mills on the 17th, with an increase of 50/55 yuan per ton. It is expected that there will be another price increase next week. On the supply side, as the inspection team leaves, some rectified coal mines have started to resume production, and coking production restrictions have been lifted simultaneously. However, due to the losses of some enterprises, it is difficult to increase production. On the demand side, the environmental production restrictions in Tangshan ended this week, blast furnaces resumed production, and molten iron output increased significantly. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories continued to decline, port inventories decreased slightly, and steel mill inventories increased as they actively replenished. The overall inventory is at a medium level. Due to the low prices, the active replenishment demand of downstream steel mills is beneficial for future price increases of coke. In terms of strategy, the spot market is in the stage of bottoming out and rebounding. The futures premium over the spot provides room for hedging. The "anti-involution" document has brought supply-side policy expectations. For futures and spot trading, hedging operations can be carried out. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coke [7]. - For coking coal, the futures showed a volatile upward trend yesterday, and the spot prices were stable with some increases. Recently, domestic coking coal auctions have recovered, most coal mines have seen improved transactions, and the number of rising coal varieties has increased significantly. The spot market generally shows a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. On the supply side, although coal mines have started to resume production after the inspection team left, and the regional supply is expected to increase, due to good sales, coal mines are mainly holding prices firm. The overall coal mine production recovery is slow, and coal mines are still in short supply. In terms of imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal has rebounded slightly, port transactions have improved, inventory pressure has decreased, and the price of seaborne coal has increased, with the import profit still in an inverted state. Recently, steel mills have carried out replenishment purchases. On the demand side, coking plant operations have declined slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron output has decreased again. However, the downstream replenishment efforts have increased. After the Tangshan production restrictions ended, downstream demand will recover. In July, the molten iron output may remain at around 2.38 million tons per day. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories at high levels have continued to decline, port inventories at high levels have decreased, port inventories have increased, and downstream inventories at low levels have increased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. In terms of strategy, the spot fundamentals have improved. After the basis repair, spot merchants have hedging needs. The spot price rebound and downstream replenishment still have some sustainability. For futures and spot trading, hedging operations can be carried out. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips, and for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,220, 3,180, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +20, 0, and +30 yuan compared to the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are at 3,196, 3,133, and 3,179 yuan respectively, with increases of 34, 27, and 29 yuan [1]. - Hot-rolled coil: Spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3,320, 3,210, and 3,330 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +30, +10, and +30 yuan compared to the previous value. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts are at 3,309, 3,292, and 3,308 yuan respectively, with increases of 37, 30, and 37 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price is 2,960 yuan, up 10 yuan; slab price is 3,730 yuan, unchanged. - Jiangsu electric furnace rebar cost is 3,334 yuan, unchanged; East China hot-rolled coil profit is 181 yuan, down 31 yuan. - Jiangsu converter rebar cost is 3,083 yuan, up 19 yuan; North China hot-rolled coil profit is 91 yuan, down 41 yuan. - East China rebar profit is 91 yuan, down 41 yuan; South China hot-rolled coil profit is 191 yuan, down 41 yuan. - North China rebar profit is 71 yuan, down 41 yuan; the price difference between Southeast Asia and China is 86 yuan, unchanged. - South China rebar profit is 211 yuan, down 51 yuan [1]. Production - The average daily molten iron output is 242.6 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value. - The output of the five major steel products is 868.2 tons, down 4.5 tons or -0.5% compared to the previous value. - Rebar output is 209.1 tons, down 7.6 tons or -3.5% compared to the previous value, including 26.4 tons from electric furnaces, down 0.5 tons or -2.0%, and 182.7 tons from converters, down 7.1 tons or -3.7%. - Hot-rolled coil output is 321.1 tons, down 2.0 tons or -0.6% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products is 1,337.7 tons, down 1.9 tons or -0.1% compared to the previous value. - Rebar inventory is 543.3 tons, up 2.9 tons or 0.5% compared to the previous value. - Hot-rolled coil inventory is 342.9 tons, down 2.6 tons or -0.8% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume is 8.8 tons, up 0.7 tons or 8.6% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 870.1 tons, down 3.0 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - Rebar apparent demand is 206.2 tons, down 15.3 tons or -6.9% compared to the previous value. - Hot-rolled coil apparent demand is 323.8 tons, up 1.3 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: For Carajás fines, it is 785.7 yuan/ton, up 3.3 yuan or 0.4%; for PB fines, it is 810.7 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan or 1.4%; for Brazilian blend fines, it is 820.1 yuan/ton, up 10.8 yuan or 1.3%; for Jinbuba fines, it is 821.9 yuan/ton, up 11.9 yuan or 1.5%. - 09 contract basis: For Carajás fines, it is 0.2 yuan/ton, down 9.2 yuan or -97.4%; for PB fines, it is 25.2 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan or -5.7%; for Brazilian blend fines, it is 34.6 yuan/ton, down 1.7 yuan or -4.8%; for Jinbuba fines, it is 36.4 yuan/ton, down 0.6 yuan or -1.7%. - 5 - 9 spread is -54.5 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -5.8%; 9 - 1 spread is 33.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 4.8%; 1 - 5 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan or 7.5%. - Spot prices: At Rizhao Port, Carajás fines are 867.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.3%; PB fines are 765.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan or 1.3%; Brazilian blend fines are 799.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan or 1.3%; Jinbuba fines are 721.0 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan or 1.5%. - Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap is 98.0 dollars/ton, up 0.5 dollars or 0.5%; Platts 62% Fe is 99.1 dollars/ton, up 0.9 dollars or 1.0% [3]. Supply - 45 - port arrivals (weekly) are 2,662.1 tons, up 178.2 tons or 7.2% compared to the previous value. - Global shipments (weekly) are 2,987.1 tons, down 7.8 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - National monthly import volume is 9,813.1 tons, down 500.3 tons or -4.9% compared to the previous value [3]. Demand - The average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 242.4 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value. - The average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports (weekly) is 319.5 tons, up 0.2 tons or 0.1% compared to the previous value. - National monthly pig iron output is 7,190.5 tons, down 220.9 tons or -3.0% compared to the previous value. - National monthly crude steel output is 8,318.4 tons, down 336.1 tons or -3.9% compared to the previous value [3]. Inventory - 45 - port inventory (weekly, compared to Monday) is 13,723.11 tons, down 42.8 tons or -0.3% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8,979.6 tons, up 61.1 tons or 0.7% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 20.0 days, unchanged [3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1,145 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 4.7% compared to the previous value. - Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke is 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The 09 contract is 1,519 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 1.6% compared to the previous value; the 01 contract is 1,559 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan or 1.3% compared to the previous value. - The 09 basis is - 113 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 01 basis is - 153 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. - J09 - J01 is - 40 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. - The coking profit of the Steel Union (weekly) is - 43 yuan, up 20 yuan [7]. Production - The average daily output of all - sample coking plants is 64.2 tons, up 0.1 tons or 0.2% compared to the previous value. - The average daily output of 247 steel mills is 47.1 tons, down 0.1 tons or - 0.2% compared to the previous value [7]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 242.4 tons, up 2.6 tons or 1.1% compared to the previous value [7]. Inventory - Total coke inventory is 925.7 tons, down 5.3 tons or - 0.64% compared to the previous value. - All - sample coking plant coke inventory is 87.6 tons, down 5.5 tons or - 5.94% compared to the previous value. - 247 steel mill coke inventory is 639.0 tons, up 1.2 tons or 0.2% compared to the previous value. - The steel mill available days are 11.5 days, down 0.2 days or - 1.5% compared to the previous value. - Port inventory is 199.1 tons, down 1.0 tons or - 0.5% compared to the previous value [7]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is - 4.8 tons, up 0.5 tons or 11.1% compared to the previous value [7]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) is 1,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) is 920 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The 09 contract is 919 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan or 2.44% compared to the previous value; the 01 contract is 968 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 2.64% compared to the previous value. - The 09 basis is 2 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the 01 basis is - 48 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. - JM09 - JM01 is - 50 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. - Sample coal mine profit (weekly) is 290 yuan, down 2 yuan or -