1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Domestic "anti - involution" policies have entered the implementation stage. Multiple industries and departments have taken actions, and there may be more forceful policies in the future [3]. - China's economy in the first half of the year showed growth, with consumption supporting the growth. Overseas, the US economic situation has inflation, employment, and interest - rate - related changes [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first half of 2025, GDP was 66.00 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. Q1 GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and Q2 increased by 5.2% [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: From January to June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.4% year - on - year. In June, the added value of the mining industry increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 1.8% [18]. - **Real Estate Data**: In the first half of the year, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2%. In June, relevant real - estate data such as sales area and new - construction area had different trends [17][18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In the first half of the year, fixed - asset investment increased by 2.8%, with private fixed - asset investment decreasing by 0.6%. In June, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.12% month - on - month [17][18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In the first half of the year, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 24,545.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,228.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [18]. - **Demand**: The purchasing manager index (PMI) in June showed an upward trend, indicating improved market demand [8]. - **Import and Export Data**: Specific data on export and import amounts in June are presented in the report, with different trends in monthly and annual comparisons [34]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate remained stable, and the employment situation in the US also had corresponding changes [6][36]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In June, the single - month new social financing was 4.20 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 90.08 billion yuan. The stock of social financing scale reached 430.22 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [37]. - **Credit Data**: In June, financial institutions' new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11 billion yuan. Loans were divided into different sectors such as enterprises and residents [37]. - **Money Supply**: M2 balance was 330.29 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. M1 balance was 113.95 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In June, China's CPI increased by 0.1% year - on - year, ending four consecutive months of decline. The core CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [5][47]. - **PPI**: In June, China's PPI's year - on - year decline expanded by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6% [5][47]. 3.4 Overseas Economy - **US Economy**: In June, the US CPI and core CPI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the employment market remained strong. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in July was almost zero, and the probability in September was about 75% [4][6][56]. - **Eurozone Economy**: Relevant data such as HICP, retail sales index, and PMI in the Eurozone are presented in the report [15][16]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **Exchange Rates**: In July, the RMB exchange rate showed a two - way fluctuation pattern. Affected by the Fed's suspension of interest - rate hikes, the US dollar index fell, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate fluctuated within a certain range [67]. - **Interest Rates**: Data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and bond yields are presented in the report, showing different trends [68][73][76].