固 华福证券 2026 年 02 月 28 日 定 收 益 重构信贷收支表：连接货币政策与银行行为 ——解构宏观流动性系列之一 固 定 收 益 近年来债券投资者对于银行债券配置行为的关注度持续提升，但债券 投资并不是银行最主要的业务类型。银行的存款与贷款分别是 M2 与社融 的主要构成部分，而后者又是货币政策的目标，央行本质上也是通过调控 流动性来影响银行的行为，进而实现其货币政策的目标。因此，研究银行 债券配置需要从中观视角连接货币政策与银行行为。而央行每月公布的信 贷收支表为相关行为提供了相对充分的信息。 深 度 考虑 M2 是货币政策的重要中介目标，因此我们的研究以银行行为如 何影响 M2 作为起点。由于银行存款与 M0 都在信贷收支表的资金来源端， 二者又是 M2 的主要组成部分。理论上如果其他因素不变，银行其他资金 来源的下降与资金运用的上升，都会带来 M2 的上升，因此我们既可以根 据信贷收支表上各类机构各类存款的此消彼长分析 M2 的变动，也可以根 据其他科目的变化来反推 M2 变动的原因。但近年来，M2 的变动常常与信 贷、债券投资等科目的变动相背离，如果反推 M2 可以发现其变动常常由 其他 ...

证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 社融同比增速放缓，权益基金发行回暖 ——流动性周报 2 月第 3 期 2026 年 02 月 24 日 策略周报 研究所： 风险提示：历史数据仅供参考，样本代表性不足的风险，数据处理统计 方法可能存在误差，基于主观认知划分产生的偏差，外部环境变化影响 结论适用性，指标选取不全面风险。 相关报告 《年报预报落地后，市场如何演绎？*赵阳》—— 2026-02-01 《流动性周报 1 月第 3 期：宏观资金均衡偏松，ETF 继续大幅净流出*赵阳》——2026-01-28 袁野》——2026-01-26 1. 本周（2026/02/09-2026/02/13，下同）宏观资金面均衡偏松，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净投放 12089 亿元，开展 10000 亿元 6 个月 买断式逆回购操作。资金价格方面，短端利率、长端利率均小幅下行， 期限利差有所走阔。2026 年 1 月社融规模增量大幅上升至 72208 亿元， 存量同比增长 8.2%，较 2025 年 12 月增速下降 10BP。结构上，新增人 ...

企业短贷回暖，存款搬家趋势持续 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 银行角度看社融 202601 [姓名table_Authors] 电话 邮箱 登记编号 马婷婷(分析师) 021-23185608 matingting@gtht.com S0880525100001 李润凌(分析师) 021-23183283 lirunling@gtht.com S0880525120003 本报告导读： 26 年 1 月社融信贷数据发布，社融同比多增，主要由政府债拉动。信贷方面，企业 短贷增长回暖，中长贷仍待修复；居民短贷季节性改善，按揭需求仍较弱。居民存 款同比少增，非银存款持续多增，存款搬家趋势或仍延续。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 社融结构拆分： 1、社融增速：2026 年 1 月新口径下社融增速 8.2%，较上月下降 0.1pc，剔除政府债券后的社融增速 5.9%，较上月下降 0.2pc。 风险提示：经济修复不及预期；银行资产质量恶化超预期。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《从流动性总量视角看待"存款搬家"》 2026.02.11 2、社融结构：1 月单月新增社融 7.2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the social financing (社融) in January 2026 reached a new historical high for the same period, with an increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, which is 165.4 billion yuan more than the same period last year, exceeding the consensus expectation of 6.51 trillion yuan [4][7] - The report highlights that credit growth has slowed, with a notable decrease in loans to enterprises, while government bonds and corporate bonds have seen significant increases [4][12] - The liquidity and deposit situation shows a narrowing gap between M1 and M2 growth rates, with total deposits increasing by 8.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8 trillion yuan [18][20] Summary by Sections Social Financing Situation - In January 2026, social financing increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, up 165.4 billion yuan year-on-year, with a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 8.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from December 2025 [4][7] - The main contributors to the increase were government bonds and bank acceptance bills, while credit growth was notably lower [8][9] Credit Situation - The total RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan in January, which is 420 billion yuan less than the same period last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [12][14] - The report details that household loans increased by 127 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate loans decreased by 330 billion yuan [12][14] Liquidity and Deposit Situation - M1 and M2 growth rates both increased in January, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0%, leading to a narrowing of the gap between the two [18][20] - Total deposits increased by 8.09 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9%, while household deposits showed a significant decrease [20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a shift in the investment logic for bank stocks from "pro-cyclical" to "weak-cyclical," emphasizing the attractiveness of high dividend yields during periods of economic stagnation [23] - Two main investment lines are recommended: regional banks with strong certainty and large banks with high dividends [23]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In January, the new social financing (社融) increased by 7.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 0.2 trillion RMB[7] - The total social financing stock grew by 8.2% year-on-year, while M2 increased by 9.0% year-on-year[7] - Government bonds and undiscounted bills were the main supports for the increase in social financing[7] Group 2: Loan Trends - Both medium and long-term loans for residents and enterprises saw a year-on-year decrease, while short-term loans increased for both sectors[7] - New loans in January amounted to 4.7 trillion RMB, a decrease of 0.4 trillion RMB year-on-year[7] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Liquidity - M1 and M2 both showed a year-on-year increase, with M1 at 4.9% and M2 at 9.0%[7] - Non-bank deposits continued to increase, indicating a trend towards liquidity in deposits[7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The year-on-year growth of social financing may face downward pressure as the base increases towards July, but is expected to remain above 7%[7] - The central bank is likely to maintain a loose liquidity stance, with M2 expected to stay above 7%[7] Group 5: Risks - Economic recovery may not meet expectations, potentially affecting credit growth and social financing[9] - Uncertainties regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts could impact China's monetary policy[9]

Group 1: Social Financing - In January 2026, the social financing stock growth rate was 8.2% (previous value 8.3%), with new social financing of 7.22 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.4 billion yuan year-on-year[7] - Government bonds contributed significantly with an increase of 976.4 billion yuan, up 283.1 billion yuan year-on-year[10] - Loans remained relatively stable with an increase of 4.9 trillion yuan, down 319.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and the loan balance decreased to 6.1% year-on-year (previous value 6.4%)[7] Group 2: Credit Trends - In January, new credit was 4.71 trillion yuan, a decrease of 420 billion yuan year-on-year, with corporate and household loans remaining stable[13] - Notably, there is a trend of short-term debt: corporate short-term loans increased by 310 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans decreased by 280 billion yuan[13] - This indicates a conservative outlook for medium to long-term economic conditions among the private sector, while short-term activity remains robust[13] Group 3: Monetary Supply - M2 growth rate reached a two-year high at 9.0% (previous value 8.5%), while M1 growth was 4.9% (previous value 3.8%)[15] - Household deposits decreased by 339 billion yuan year-on-year, while corporate deposits increased by 281.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant capital inflow[15] - The rise in M2 is attributed to expectations of currency appreciation and a historic wave of cross-border capital repatriation[18] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The trend of corporate currency settlement is expected to continue, potentially driving further domestic liquidity expansion[25] - A risk to monitor is the slower-than-expected recovery of the private sector's balance sheets, which may impact economic stability[30]

Core Viewpoint - The January social financing data indicates a stable start to the year, with a total increase of 7.22 trillion yuan, surpassing market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. However, the growth rate of social financing stock has slightly decreased to 8.2% [1][5][11]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In January, social financing increased by 7.22 trillion yuan, exceeding the market average expectation of 6.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1654 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock is 8.2%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][5][6]. Entity Loans - Entity loans increased by 4.9 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 3194 billion yuan. This is attributed to several factors, including a high base from the previous year and a balanced credit supply-demand environment [2][7][9]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 9764 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2831 billion yuan, indicating a proactive fiscal approach. Corporate bonds saw an increase of 5033 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 579 billion yuan [3][9][10]. Bank Acceptance Bills - Undiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 6293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1639 billion yuan, primarily due to a reduction in the scale of bills discounted to banks [3][9]. Monetary Supply - M1 grew by 4.9% year-on-year, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, driven by cross-border capital flows and improved risk appetite among micro-entities. M2 increased by 9%, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, supported by factors such as interbank investment expansion [4][10]. Overall Assessment - Overall, the January credit and social financing data shows a stable start. Despite the lack of significant recovery in medium to long-term loans indicating weak entity investment activities, improvements in non-entity activities have enhanced liquidity in the real sector, contributing to the rebound in M1 and M2 growth rates [4][11].

Economic Outlook for January Industry Overview - The report focuses on the economic outlook for January, highlighting key indicators such as CPI, PPI, and financial forecasts related to the Chinese economy [1] Key Points and Arguments Price Predictions - January CPI is projected to increase by 0.6% year-on-year (previous value: 0.8%), with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] - For industrial products, January PPI is expected to decrease by 1.8% year-on-year (previous value: -1.9%), with a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% (previous value: 0.2%) [1] Financial Forecasts - In January, new RMB loans are expected to reach 5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 130 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate falling by 0.2 percentage points to 6.2% [1] - New social financing in January is projected to be 6.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 98 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate declining by 0.2 percentage points to 8.1% [1] - M2 growth rate is expected to be 8.5%, unchanged from the previous month; M1 growth rate is projected to be 2.2%, down from 3.8%, a decline of 1.6 percentage points [1] Future Monetary Policy Predictions - Economic growth and the promotion of reasonable price recovery will be key considerations for monetary policy throughout 2026, alongside financial stability [1] - A total easing operation of 25-50 basis points in reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and a 10 basis point interest rate cut is anticipated, with a gradual approach and infrequent adjustments [1] - Structural policy tools will continue to be emphasized, with a focus on guiding credit structure and supporting areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Important but Overlooked Content - There is a risk that an escalation of geopolitical conflicts could unexpectedly boost China's economic performance by addressing overcapacity issues [1] - The potential for policy implementation to fall short of expectations is highlighted as a risk factor [1]

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - The social financing scale in China is projected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, reaching 442.12 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with an annual increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - M2 money supply is expected to reach 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, while M1 is projected to grow by 3.8%, leading to an expanded gap between M2 and M1 [2] - Financial institutions are expected to maintain reasonable growth in RMB loans to the real economy, with an annual increase of 15.91 trillion yuan [2][3] Group 2: State Grid Investment - The State Grid Corporation plans to invest 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, marking a 40% increase from the previous plan [4] - The investment will focus on enhancing renewable energy capacity, optimizing energy storage, and supporting zero-carbon initiatives [4][5] - This investment is expected to inject new momentum into the domestic economy and strengthen energy security [4][5] Group 3: Real Estate and Housing Market - A secondary market for housing vouchers has emerged in cities like Guangzhou and Suzhou, with transactions being facilitated through social media platforms [6][7] - The Guangzhou government has integrated all unregistered properties into a "housing source supermarket," allowing voucher holders to purchase new properties [6] - The trading of housing vouchers may present risks such as fraud, especially with significantly discounted vouchers [7] Group 4: AI Industry and Office Space Demand - The TMT sector in Shenzhen is driving significant demand for Grade A office space, with AI-related companies accounting for 5.7% of total leasing demand in 2025 [8] - The growth in AI and technology sectors is supported by a strong local ecosystem and government initiatives to foster innovation [8][9] - Despite the demand, the overall office market in Shenzhen is still adjusting, with new supply pressures and a need for time to balance supply and demand [9] Group 5: Meituan's Entry into Automotive Sales - Meituan has signed a strategic partnership to enter the automotive sales market, aiming to create a one-stop service platform for car buying and local services [10] - This move is seen as a way for Meituan to diversify its revenue streams amid intense competition in its core business [10][11] - The automotive sales sector presents unique challenges, including ensuring service quality and building consumer trust [10][11] Group 6: West Restaurant Chain's Store Closures - West Restaurant plans to close 102 stores, representing 30% of its total, due to significant declines in customer traffic and cash flow pressures [12][13] - The chain has implemented various promotional strategies to attract customers back, but these have increased operational costs without restoring previous traffic levels [12] - The perception of West's food quality has been impacted by its central kitchen model, which consumers associate with pre-prepared meals [13] Group 7: Stock Market and Regulatory Environment - Several companies have been warned by regulators for excessive stock price increases that do not align with their fundamentals, highlighting the speculative nature of the market [14][15] - The regulatory focus aims to curb excessive speculation and promote a more rational investment environment in the A-share market [14][15] - The market is currently experiencing high trading volumes, indicating strong speculative interest despite regulatory scrutiny [16][17]

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for December 2025 indicates a mixed performance in social financing, with a notable decline in government bond financing, while corporate financing shows significant improvement compared to 2024. Group 1: Social Financing - In December 2025, new social financing amounted to 2.21 trillion yuan, a decrease of 646.2 billion yuan compared to the same period in 2024, but higher than in 2022 and 2023 [1][8] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in December was 8.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from November [1][8] - New government bond financing in December was 683.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.08 trillion yuan compared to 2024 [8][9] Group 2: Corporate Financing - Corporate bond financing in December reached 154.1 billion yuan, an increase of 170 billion yuan from 2024 [8] - Total corporate bond financing for 2025 was 2.39 trillion yuan, up 25.3% from 2024, driven by a narrowing credit spread [2][8] - Equity financing for corporations in 2025 was 476.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 64.2% compared to 2024, with the A-share market performing strongly [2][9] Group 3: Loan Dynamics - The overall trend in RMB loans remains "weak for households, strong for enterprises," with corporate short-term loans at 4.8 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 8.8 trillion yuan for 2025 [3][14] - Household short-term loans decreased by 835.1 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans increased by 1.3 trillion yuan, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment [3][14] - The decline in household medium to long-term loans was 43.1% compared to 2024, largely due to the ongoing downturn in the real estate market [3][14] Group 4: Monetary Policy - On January 15, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced eight supportive monetary policies, including a 25 basis point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates [21][22] - The policies aim to enhance support for small and medium-sized enterprises and promote financing in key sectors such as technology innovation and service consumption [21][23] - The increase in the quota for technology innovation and technical transformation re-loans from 800 billion yuan to 1.2 trillion yuan reflects a focus on optimizing the economic structure [23]