东海期货 短期矿石预计以区间震荡思路对待 金信期货：铁矿石维持宽幅震荡思路看待 随着西芒杜项目投产，供应宽松预期进一步发酵；需求端来看，终端除出口尚有余温外，地产基建尚在 寻底，内需支撑偏弱；技术面上，维持宽幅震荡思路看待，高抛低吸。 12月17日盘中，铁矿石期货主力合约高位震荡，最高上探至769.5元。截止发稿，铁矿石主力合约报 769.0元，涨幅1.38%。 铁矿石期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 金信期货 铁矿石维持宽幅震荡思路看待 新世纪期货 铁矿石寻找反弹抛空机会 新世纪期货：铁矿石寻找反弹抛空机会 铁矿石"供给宽松、需求低位、港口累库"的主线不变：2026年全球矿山新增6400–6500万吨，增速远超 粗钢；当下铁水环比再降、板材库存高压，钢厂检修预期升温，现实需求疲弱，铁矿价格震荡偏弱运 行。钢材出口实施许可证管理制度，最直接的影响就是买单出口被"限制"，对于明年钢材出口的预期需 要下调，同时关注是否匹配粗钢产量管控政策，对于原料而言是确定性的利空。策略上，依托年底成材 高结转库存以及铁矿过剩预期，寻找反弹抛空机会。 东海期货：短期矿石预计以区间震荡思路对 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Rebound and Short" investment rating for the egg industry, suggesting selling on price rebounds [11][12][13] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, due to pre - holiday stocking in early September, the supply - demand relationship may tighten slightly, and egg prices are expected to rise, but the increase is limited due to large supply and cold - storage egg release. After mid - September, as stocking ends, the supply - demand contradiction will expand, and egg prices will decline. The futures market may pre - realize the peak - season price increase, so the "Rebound and Short" strategy is maintained [11] - The overall egg market shows high - level decline and oscillation. Newly - opened production and inventory are increasing, but the replenishment volume is decreasing, and old - hen culling is increasing [11][20][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot Market**: Since August, domestic egg prices have shown high - level decline and oscillation, weaker than expected. At the end of the month, prices rose slightly due to stocking for the start of school. In early September, prices may rise, but the increase is limited. After mid - September, prices will fall [11][20] - **Replenishment and Culling**: In August, the national replenishment volume dropped to 79.62 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. Old - hen culling increased significantly, and the chicken age dropped to 495 days [11][33][36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of August, the inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, higher than expected. It is expected to peak at 1.368 billion in November, indicating an overall supply surplus in the future [11][38][41] - **Demand**: After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption improved. With pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to recover [11][46] - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, short contracts 10 and 11 on rebounds, with a profit - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended cycle of 1 month. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities [13] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price Trend**: Egg prices have been oscillating after a high - level decline. Specific prices in different regions have different changes. In early September, prices may rise slightly, but the increase is limited [20] - **Basis and Spread**: In the short - term, the spot is strong, and near - month contracts are relatively strong. In the future, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities in the spread [23] - **Culled Chicken Price**: As the peak season for egg prices is not prosperous, the culling of old hens has increased, and the price of culled chickens has dropped significantly [26] 3.3 Supply Side - **Egg - Laying Hen Replenishment**: In August, due to low egg prices and breeding losses, the national replenishment volume decreased to 79.62 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [33] - **Culled Chicken Slaughter**: In August, due to the under - performance of the egg - price peak season and seasonal factors, the culling of old hens increased significantly, and the chicken age dropped to 495 days [36] - **Inventory and Trend**: As of the end of August, the inventory of laying hens was 1.365 billion, higher than expected. It is expected to continue to increase in the future, indicating an overall supply surplus [38][41] 3.4 Demand Side - After the plum - rain season, inventory consumption improved. With pre - holiday stocking for the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, egg consumption is expected to gradually get out of the off - season shadow and reach a consumption peak in the second half of the year [46] 3.5 Cost and Profit - The cost has increased slightly, but it is still low year - on - year. The profit is at a seasonally low level [51] 3.6 Inventory Side - With the start of spot consumption, inventory pressure has eased, showing a seasonal downward trend, but it is still relatively high year - on - year [56]