山海：黄金陷入大范围震荡中，暂时难以突破区间！ 沪银（2602合约）本周的11950多单提示在12200出局，目前11840多单还在持有中，不过今天白银再次回落，力度有点大，现在收盘在11730附近，按照走势 来看，白银大概率还是震荡，只要维持在11500支撑上，就难以大跌，所以，建议可以以11500为防守继续做多看涨沪银，今天短线看上方压制在12000，大 力度的话看12300即可。近期走不出区间，就以震荡看待。 国际原油还是没有涨上去，目前再次下跌到58附近，前面提示在58支撑附近做多看涨，虽然前面有部分利润，但是还是没有延续上涨，所以，现在也就只能 继续持有58的多单不变，本周大概率没有什么表现了，主要看周内尾盘的收盘变化，如果能起来下周再看上涨。 国内燃油（2602合约）微跌了一点，但是力度不大，收盘还是在2510附近，目前还是没有确定筑底，但可以尝试性加仓做多，看看这个周期的变化，本周确 定筑底的话，下周再看上涨空间，现在就多观察市场变化。 撰文/山海 (以上文章由山海原创，转载请注明出处。山海温馨提示，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。以上仅代表山海个人观点，不作操作依据，据此操作风险自担） 黄金周期性还是 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：区间震荡 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 强势 | 偏强 | 区间震荡 | 资金止盈意愿与政策利好预期相 互博弈 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅回调。沪深京三市全天成交额 17226 亿元，较上日缩量 200 亿 元。目前股指处于政策利好预期发酵节奏与获利资金止盈节 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and briefly mentions macro - related news. It shows that aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,530 yuan, down 40 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 169,843 lots and an open interest of 338,582 lots. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,815 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day. The LME cancellation warrant ratio was 10.89%, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,732 yuan, down 8 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 266,933 lots and an open interest of 411,305 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,780 yuan, down 35 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 4,864 lots and an open interest of 12,349 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic average price of aluminum ingots was 21,530 yuan, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,861 yuan, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 345 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Related Products**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887 yuan, the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 360 yuan, and the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 50 yuan [1]. 3.3 Macro News - As of the week ending November 15th, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. However, the number of continued unemployment claims slightly rose to 1,974,000, higher than the expected 1,950,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [3]. - There is a new divergence between hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Hammack strongly opposes further interest rate cuts, warning that inflation is difficult to control and monetary policy needs to be tightened [3].

中信建投研报指出，展望2026年，我们认为转债资产在权益资产催化与高强赎概率制约下，整体上可能 依然呈现较为显著的区间震荡特征。一方面，在权益资产预期回报率提升与转债自身稀缺性影响下，转 债资产出现大幅回撤难度较大；而另一方面，受制于转债资产整体不断提升的强赎概率以及不断缩短的 平均剩余期限，转债资产的时间价值可能进一步衰减，市场亦难以对其定价更高的估值。因此建议关注 转债估值与价格中枢的波动，灵活调整转债的配置力度，获取交易型收益。对于新发转债，除在一级市 场积极申购外，在转债上市初期依然可以持续关注，具备统计套利机会。 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by two main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and geopolitical changes affecting safe-haven demand [2][3] - Gold has entered a consolidation phase after a significant drop, with a trading range established between 4000 and 4150. A breakout from this range will determine the market's direction [3][4] - The domestic gold market has shown low volatility, with support levels at 930 and 925, and resistance at 955 and 950. The market is expected to remain in a low volatility phase unless these key levels are breached [4][5] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing a similar consolidation pattern, with key resistance at 50 and support at 47.5. A sustained move above 50 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend [4][5] - The domestic silver market has shown a bullish trend after a drop to 11300, with a focus on maintaining support at this level. A breakout above 11700 could lead to further gains [5] - The oil market has seen fluctuations, with a recent rise from 56 to 63. The market is currently observing whether it can maintain above 63 to confirm a bullish trend [5][6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 区间震荡 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 22 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。供给方面，铜矿端扰动限制铜价跌幅，前期印 尼铜矿事故对市场的利多支撑暂未消除，本周铜精矿港口库存数量去化，目前铜精矿库 存同比去年大幅偏低。冶炼厂检修仍在继续，产出水平低，目前长单进入初步探讨阶 段，铜矿贸易商手持货源偏少。目前铜处于银十旺季阶段，但受宏观刺激大幅上涨的铜 价格难以被下游接受，市场交投气氛弱，近日价格下跌后带动需求或环比有好转，国内 电力电网及新能源稳定发展，为需求提供刚性支撑，且美联储降息周期内，全球工业需 求前景乐观。综合来看，美国政府停摆接近尾声，市场不确定性减弱，基本面来看，国 内高价抵触情绪高，但国内铜出口窗口打开，累库压力减小，正值银十消费旺季，基本 面提供支撑，铜矿事故限制跌幅，且前期盘面已突破长期震荡区间，盘面偏强运行为 主，但随着需求支撑的转弱，上涨动能亦不足，区间震荡为主。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。 ...

Market Overview - As of September 22, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a shift towards inventory reduction [1] - The actual arrival volume last week was 235,600 cubic meters, down by 234,400 cubic meters, with New Zealand accounting for 210,000 cubic meters of this volume, a decrease of 209,000 cubic meters; the expected arrival volume from New Zealand is projected to increase to approximately 336,000 cubic meters this week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily outflow of coniferous logs from 13 ports across 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a slight decrease of 90 cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The current market for raw wood is stable, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand; however, there is a weak reality against strong expectations, leading to weaker spot transactions [2] Price Trends - As of September 24, the spot market prices for raw wood remain unchanged, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine at 770 yuan per cubic meter [2] - The overall price trend in the spot market is stable, with expectations of increased arrivals and tightening supply; however, there is currently no clear upward momentum in prices, leading to an anticipated range-bound fluctuation in raw wood prices [3]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The net inflow of funds into the top three industries (according to Shenwan's first-level classification) includes: Banking (2.023 billion yuan), Power Equipment (4.519 billion yuan), and Automotive (3.400 billion yuan) [2] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation between 3700 and 3900 points in the short term, driven by profit-taking ahead of the holiday [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF by Huabao focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, providing investors with a diversified option to invest in China [2] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply is diversified during the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period. The competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. The market is expected to maintain range - bound trading. It's necessary to be vigilant about the risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations. If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On September 17, 2025, the spot sugar prices varied by region: 5970 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5860 yuan/ton in Kunming, Yunnan (down 5 yuan); 5715 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; 6000 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. SR09 futures price was 5519 yuan (down 11 yuan), and SR01 was 5529 yuan (down 18 yuan). The spread between SR09 - 01 was - 10 (up 7) [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1276 (down 0.0093), the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004). The ICE raw sugar main contract price was 15.88 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract price was 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract price was 68.49 (unchanged) [4].