期 货 研 究 2026 年 02 月 26 日 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 PTA：成本支撑偏强 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 所 | PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 7432 | 5312 | 3747 | 6722 | 488.3 | | | 涨跌 | -46 | -40 | 10 | -68 | -5 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.62% | -0.75% | 0.27% | -1.00% | -1.01% | | | 月差 | PX5-9 | PTA5-9 | MEG5-9 | PF3-4 | SC2-3 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 20 | 14 | -118 | -98 | 5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 26 | 32 | -112 | -66 | -0.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate, which reinforces the Federal Reserve's expectation to maintain high interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. However, gold prices quickly rebounded after a brief pullback, indicating strong bullish momentum [1]. Group 1 - The support level at 5000 for gold is considered strong, making it difficult for prices to drop below this point [1]. - The market is currently experiencing high volatility, with resistance levels noted around 5100 and 5150, while support is observed in the 5000-5020 range [1]. - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on the 5120-5000 range for high short and low long positions, with a wait for new fundamental indicators to guide direction [1]. Group 2 - The previous trading recommendation to go long at 5025 was deemed accurate [3]. - Continuous monitoring of real-time market trends is emphasized for effective trading decisions [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of I2605 was 761.5 yuan/ton with no change, and the position was 513,940 hands with an increase of 556 hands [1] - **Spot Prices**: The prices of various types of iron ore, including imported and domestic ores, remained unchanged [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis and spreads of different iron ore varieties showed little change, except for the spread between I2605 - I2609 which decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton and the spread between I2609 - I2701 which increased by 1.0 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 50.1 [1] - Many real - estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report the "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real - estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in their headquarters city regularly [1] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both weak before the Spring Festival, and the post - festival trend depends on the game between upstream and downstream**: In the coking coal segment, production is adjusted due to the Spring Festival and safety production constraints, and it is expected to decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival. In the coke segment, poor profits suppress production enthusiasm, and supply is in a contraction state. In the steel mill segment, production will remain at a low level during the Spring Festival, and the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but the actual recovery height depends on the game between terminal demand release intensity and steel mill profit levels. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise. The supply of coking coal is expected to be loose, while the supply of coke will continue to contract. The demand depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit space. Overall, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate within a range, with coke in the range of 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton and coking coal in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/ton [3][33]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Futures market**: In January, coking coal and coke futures fluctuated widely, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Coking coal futures first rose due to winter storage expectations, then fell due to high Mongolian coal customs clearance and sufficient domestic supply, and finally entered a shock phase. Coke futures basically followed the trend of coking coal [8]. - **Spot market**: Mongolian coal prices were closely linked to futures, while Shanxi - produced coking coal prices were relatively lagging. In January, the mainstream coal types in Shanxi generally rose by 80 - 150 yuan/ton in the middle of the month and then weakened in the late month [8]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal, the supply pressure gradually accumulated, with increased domestic coal mine production and high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance. The downstream winter storage brought phased demand but with limited intensity. For coke, the supply - demand pattern was loose, the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises increased slightly, but profits continued to shrink [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Upstream Coking Coal Production Declined Slightly - In January, coking coal production decreased by 3.2% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year, mainly affected by the Spring Festival and weak downstream demand. Shanxi's production decreased by 4% month - on - month, while Inner Mongolia's increased by 2.1%. State - owned key coal mines accounted for 72% of the total output, and private small and medium - sized mines had a low start - up rate of 52%. In February, production is expected to decline seasonally and recover quickly after the festival [9][11]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import Had a Good Momentum - In 2025, China's coking coal imports were low in the first half and high in the second half, with a total import volume of 118.6256 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.66%. Mongolia and Russia accounted for 78.3% of the total imports. In January, Mongolian coal customs clearance increased significantly year - on - year, and the port inventory was high. After the Spring Festival, customs clearance is expected to remain at a high level [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Inventory Analysis - In January, the coking coal market was in a state of inventory accumulation. The inventory was transferred from upstream to mid - and downstream. By the end of January, the upstream coal mine raw coal inventory increased by 660,000 tons month - on - month, the port inventory decreased by 130,000 tons, the coking plant inventory increased by 1.95 million tons, and the steel mill coking coal inventory increased by 76,000 tons [17]. 3.2.4 Overall Contraction of Coke Supply - In January, coking enterprises' profits were poor, and the start - up rate increased limitedly. The national coking profit was - 50 - 60 yuan/ton, and the independent coking enterprise start - up rate was stable at around 72%. Coke production was at a relatively low level, and the supply continued to contract. Steel mill coke production remained stable, with a daily average output of 465,000 - 470,000 tons [19]. 3.2.5 Coke Import and Export - In 2025, China's coke exports showed a downward trend, with a total export volume of 794,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. Exports were mainly to Indonesia, India, and Japan. In 2026, coke exports are expected to be generally stable. Domestic coke self - sufficiency rate is high, and imports have little impact on the market [21][22]. 3.2.6 Coke Inventory - Before the Spring Festival, coke inventory increased, mainly driven by steel mill replenishment. By the end of January, the total domestic coke inventory was about 9.2 million tons, an increase of 500,000 tons month - on - month. The coking plant inventory decreased by 60,000 tons, the port inventory increased by 200,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 360,000 tons [23]. 3.3 Demand Side: Contracted Before the Festival and Recovered After the Festival - Affected by the Spring Festival and pre - festival stockpiling, coke demand weakened before the festival. In January, overall consumption was stable, slightly better than the same period last year. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills remained in the range of 80% - 85%, and the daily average pig iron output was about 2.28 million tons, a slight decrease of 5,000 tons month - on - month. It is expected that the start - up rate will remain low in early February and gradually recover after the Lantern Festival, but it depends on the game between steel mill profit repair and raw material costs [28]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Coking coal**: Affected by the Spring Festival and safety production, production will decline seasonally in February and recover quickly after the festival, and the supply will be generally stable [32]. - **Coke**: Coking enterprises' profits are poor, and the supply continues to contract. Steel mill self - produced coke remains stable [32]. - **Steel mills**: During the Spring Festival, production will remain at a low level. After the Lantern Festival, the start - up rate is expected to gradually recover, but the actual recovery height depends on terminal demand and steel mill profit levels [32]. - **Macro - level**: The domestic economy is stable, with weak real estate investment and strong infrastructure and manufacturing investment. Overseas, there are geopolitical conflicts and trade frictions, and the global economy has uncertainties. In the next month, the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will first decline and then rise, and they are expected to fluctuate within a range [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **豆粕期货**: The soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Brazil's soybean harvest is abundant and gradually hitting the market, leading to significant global supply pressure. Domestic downstream demand is weak, while high oil - mill operation rates and low breeding profits suppress consumption growth. However, Argentina's drought and the continuous reduction of domestic soybean meal inventory provide bottom support [6]. - **豆油期货**: The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation. As the oil - mill operation rate recovers, soybean oil supply is becoming looser, and terminal consumption is weak, with inventory pressure still existing. But the US biodiesel policy expectations and international crude oil price fluctuations support the soybean oil futures price [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 豆粕期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound stage. The 4th - week oil - mill soybean actual crushing volume is 2.1021 million tons, the operation rate is 57.83%, and the soybean meal inventory is 898,600 tons. Pay attention to South American weather, Brazil's new - crop arrival rhythm, and domestic breeding demand [6]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend last week, with a slightly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 was expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean meal futures price is currently in a sideways trend, with a strongly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak - range fluctuation, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [19][21][24] 豆油期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range fluctuation stage. The 125 oil - mills' actual soybean oil output in the 4th week is 39,940 tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory is 956,000 tons. Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward trend last week, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 was expected to continue a slightly bullish range - bound pattern [32]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 is expected to be in a high - level range - bound stage [32]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazil's premium. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [42][45][47]

Core Insights - The stainless steel market is experiencing price fluctuations, with recent data indicating a decline in cold-rolled stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan [1] - Nickel ore prices are on the rise, particularly in the Philippines and Indonesia, with significant increases in benchmark prices [1][3] - Domestic stainless steel production is expected to increase in January, driven by improved profit margins for steel mills [2] Supply - In December, the crude steel output from 43 domestic stainless steel mills was 3.2605 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 232,600 tons (6.7%) and a year-on-year decrease of 5.3% [2] - January's stainless steel crude steel output is projected to be 3.4065 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.48% and a year-on-year increase of 19.05% [2] - The production of the 300 series is expected to rise to 1.7632 million tons in January, with a month-on-month increase of 0.92% and a year-on-year increase of 12.58% [2] Inventory - Social inventory is continuing to decrease, although the pace of reduction has slowed compared to the previous week [2] - As of January 16, social inventory for the 300 series in Wuxi and Foshan was 450,700 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,700 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's stainless steel futures inventory was 46,118 tons, down 911 tons week-on-week [2] Market Dynamics - The stainless steel market is currently experiencing narrow fluctuations, influenced by nickel ore news and cautious purchasing behavior [3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points, creating space for further interest rate cuts [3] - Expectations of tightened nickel ore supply from Indonesia and rising prices in the Philippines are contributing to market sentiment [3] Price Trends - The market price for high-nickel pig iron has risen, with the negotiation range moving up to 1,020-1,030 yuan per nickel [3] - Retail prices for ferrochrome remain strong due to limited resource circulation and a slowdown in supply growth [3] - Overall, while cost support is strengthening, the combination of ample supply and weak demand is limiting upward price movement, with short-term expectations of price fluctuations in the range of 13,800-14,600 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the Shanghai lead futures may experience wide - range fluctuations after a decline. Although the domestic supply and demand both increase, the low - level inventory continues to rise, causing the supply - demand situation to weaken marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend. Mid - term attention should be paid to the production dynamics of recycled lead, downstream demand, and domestic inventory changes [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Changes Processing Fees In November 2025, China imported 110,000 tons of lead concentrates in physical volume, with a year - on - year increase of 15.8% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7%. The import volume was higher than the average level in recent years. The domestic lead concentrate market demand was high in winter, and the tight situation of domestic mines continued. The processing fees of domestic and foreign lead concentrates remained stable at a low level. In January, the domestic monthly processing fee was 200 - 400 yuan/ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported monthly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the monthly ring - to - ring was flat. For spot processing fees, the domestic weekly processing fee for lead ore was 250 - 350 yuan/ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat; the imported weekly processing fee was - 160 - - 130 US dollars/dry ton, and the weekly ring - to - ring was flat [2]. Supply In December 2025, the output of primary lead was 332,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56% and a year - on - year increase of 1.56%, and the monthly output was higher than expected; the output of recycled refined lead was 268,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.35% and a year - on - year increase of 0.83%. Last week, the operating rate of primary lead smelters in three provinces monitored by SMM was 67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4%. For primary lead enterprises, there were both maintenance and resumption of production, and the supply increased mainly on a month - on - month basis. The operating rate of recycled lead in four provinces monitored by SMM was 50.4%, a week - on - week increase of 1.4%. The refined lead import window remained open, and the import profit margin narrowed slightly. The cost of waste batteries increased, and the profit of recycled lead was still acceptable, with only a slight narrowing of profit. The future growth of recycled lead production was limited but still had room for improvement [3]. Consumption Last week, the weekly comprehensive operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises in five provinces monitored by SMM was 70.77%, a week - on - week increase of 4.18%. After the New Year's Day holiday, lead - acid battery enterprises gradually resumed production, and the weekly operating rate increased. In December, the inventory in the battery industry chain accumulated, and in November, the net export of lead - acid batteries decreased month - on - month. In January, orders decreased, and the production enthusiasm was lower than that in December. Orders from automotive battery and energy - storage battery enterprises were relatively stable, and medium - and large - sized enterprises' production was okay. The operating rates of medium - and large - sized enterprises ranged from 60% to 80%, and a few enterprises even considered early holidays before the Spring Festival. Due to changes in tariff policies, orders from some export - oriented enterprises were sluggish, and there were large differences in the operating rates of production enterprises. At the initial stage of implementing the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers were more wait - and - see, and the production of electric bicycles declined [4]. Spot As of the week ending January 16, the domestic lead spot basis turned to a premium, and the lead spot basis was at a premium of 115 yuan last weekend. The LME lead spot remained in a deep discount state, with a discount of - 44.18 US dollars last weekend [4]. Inventory As of the week ending January 16, the LME lead weekly inventory decreased by 16,375 tons to 206,400 tons. The LME inventory had been falling continuously from a high level but was still at a high level in recent years; the weekly inventory of lead on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 6,933 tons to 37,044 tons. As of January 15, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions monitored by SMM reached 27,400 tons, and the inventory continued to rise month - on - month but was at an absolute low level in the past four years [4]. 2. Market Outlook and Strategy The LME lead inventory has been falling continuously, but it is still at an absolute high level, and the spot remains in a deep discount state, indicating that the overseas lead supply - demand surplus situation continues. The import volume of lead ore increased month - on - month in November, slightly higher than the average level, but the increment was limited. Due to the seasonal off - season of domestic mines in winter, the domestic mine supply remains in a deficit state, and domestic processing fees are operating at a low level. For primary lead, there are both maintenance and resumption of production, and the operating rate has increased slightly; the cost of waste batteries has increased, the profit of recycled lead is still acceptable, and the profit has only narrowed slightly. The future growth of recycled lead production is limited but still has room for improvement. The Shanghai - London price ratio has decreased slightly, the domestic import window remains open, and the pressure of import inflow is relatively large. Overall, the domestic supply and demand both increase, but the low - level inventory continues to rise, and the supply - demand situation weakens marginally. Considering the rising cost - end support, the Shanghai lead is expected to show an interval - oscillation trend after a decline [5].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market in 2026 is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations within a range of 16,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton. Seasonal factors may create temporary supply-demand gaps that could elevate prices [4]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of December 26, 2025, Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons [1]. - On January 2, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered lead warrants of 162,500 tons, with canceled warrants down by 6,025 tons to 76,825 tons, and total lead inventory reduced by 2,600 tons to 239,325 tons [1]. - A medium-sized recycled lead smelting enterprise in Southwest China plans to reduce production by 20%-30% in January due to ongoing raw material supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is seeing a slight increase in ore and waste battery recovery, with refined lead production continuing to grow [4]. - Demand is supported by policies encouraging replacements, with positive growth in electric two-wheelers and potential increases in energy storage and lead-carbon batteries. However, exports of lead-acid batteries may decline due to high Shanghai-London price ratios, trade frictions, and tariffs in the Middle East [4]. - The overall assessment indicates a slight domestic surplus, with seasonal consumption expected to pressure prices after a minor uptick at the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Recommendations - Recent reductions in recycled lead production are primarily due to raw material supply issues, compounded by environmental controls in East and North China [4]. - Downstream large manufacturers are experiencing weaker operations, attributed to the end-of-month accounting period, although there remains some buying activity in the spot market [4]. - The terminal demand is showing significant differentiation, with replacement demand affected by new national standards and automotive battery consumption entering a peak season, though the seasonal effect may not match previous years due to competition from lithium alternatives [4]. - Inventory levels are currently fluctuating downwards, with no significant short-term recovery expected, leading to limited upward potential for lead prices. A cautious trading approach is recommended [4].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. In a situation of double reduction in supply and demand, the upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton for range-bound consolidation. The risk control measures of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have raised the trading and holding threshold and affected market sentiment. Currently, it is waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On December 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,705 yuan/ton and closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.08%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 216,220 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 29, 2025, was 10,027 lots, a change of 120 lots from the previous day. [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Consumption of Industrial Silicon - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. SMM reported that the weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production of polysilicon in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, with limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. [2] - The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly from the previous week. In early December, monomer plants successively reduced production, and the production schedule decreased compared to November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons. [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and it is expected that the operating rate will be mainly stable with a weak trend in the future. [2] Group 5: Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Group 6: Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On December 30, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated downward, opening at 56,500 yuan/ton and closing at 57,890 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of -0.19% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 83,335 (95,631 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 42,713 lots. [3] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 (0.10) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. [3] - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 30.30, a change of 3.40% from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a change of 0.88% from the previous period, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,300.00 tons, a change of 1.20% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.33 GW, a change of -3.19% from the previous period. [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 (0.10) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.65 (0.10) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.45 (0.10) yuan/piece. [3] Group 7: Market Analysis - Battery Cells and Components of Polysilicon - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] Group 8: Strategy - Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]