消息面 9月24日原木现货市场报价:山东3.9米中A辐射松原木现货价格为750元/方，较昨日持平，江苏4米中A辐 射松原木现货价格为770元/方，较昨日持平。供需关系上没有太大矛盾，强预期和弱现实博弈，现货成 交较弱，关注旺季现货端价格，进口数据，库存变化以及宏观预期市场情绪对价格的支撑。 新世纪期货： 整体来看，现货市场价格偏稳运行，本周原木到港预计环增，供应端趋紧，日均出库量减少，目前暂无 明显上涨动力，预计原木区间震荡。 中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为6.33万立方米，较上周降0.09。 机构观点 国新国证期货： 截止2025年9月22日当周，中国针叶原木港口样本库存量：292万m ，环比减少10万m ，库存转为去 化。 上周实际到港量23.56万方（-23.44），其中新西兰口径到港量21万方（-20.9）；本周新西兰预计到港量 将增加至33.6万方左右。 ...

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The net inflow of funds into the top three industries (according to Shenwan's first-level classification) includes: Banking (2.023 billion yuan), Power Equipment (4.519 billion yuan), and Automotive (3.400 billion yuan) [2] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation between 3700 and 3900 points in the short term, driven by profit-taking ahead of the holiday [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF by Huabao focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, providing investors with a diversified option to invest in China [2] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply is diversified during the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period. The competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. The market is expected to maintain range - bound trading. It's necessary to be vigilant about the risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations. If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On September 17, 2025, the spot sugar prices varied by region: 5970 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5860 yuan/ton in Kunming, Yunnan (down 5 yuan); 5715 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; 6000 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. SR09 futures price was 5519 yuan (down 11 yuan), and SR01 was 5529 yuan (down 18 yuan). The spread between SR09 - 01 was - 10 (up 7) [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1276 (down 0.0093), the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004). The ICE raw sugar main contract price was 15.88 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract price was 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract price was 68.49 (unchanged) [4].

肥贵声明:宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的教您营权内，已具备阶段交易咨询业务资格。本报告分析及建议所保描的信息均来源于公开资村，本公 司时这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不依证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正、但文中的观点、结论本建议 仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。投资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果，本公司概不负责。（风险提示:朝市有风险 人市需返快! | 交易日期(日) | 近两周走势 | 2025-09-09 | 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-02 | 较昨日变化 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 120520.00 | 122220.00 | 121820.00 | -1,300.00 | 5 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货连一合约 | 5 | 120700.00 | -1,440.00 | 收盘价 | 122140.00 | 1225 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a "Sugar Data Daily" by ITG Guomao Futures [3] - The report date is September 2, 2025 [4] - The analyst is Xie Wei with futures qualification number F03087820 and investment consulting number Z0019508 [4] Group 2: Sugar Price Data Spot Prices - The spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi is 6000 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan is 5825 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Dali, Yunnan is 5725 yuan/ton with no change [4] - The spot price in Rizhao, Shandong is 6050 yuan/ton with no change [4] Futures Prices - SR09 is 5623 yuan with an increase of 32 [4] - SR01 is 5609 yuan with an increase of 5 [4] Price Spreads - The spread between SR09 and SR01 is 14, up 27 [4] Group 3: Exchange Rate and Other Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.1489, up 0.0005 [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212 [4] - The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4] - The ice raw sugar主力 price is 16.34 with no change [4] - The London white sugar主力 price is 573, up 3 [4] - The Brent crude oil主力 price is 67.46 with no change [4] Group 4: Core View - During the new crushing season alternation, the supply is diverse, the competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies, and the market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation [4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with industrial silicon futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.36% to 8695.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Side - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase as the hydropower season progresses in the southwest region, leading to a rise in production from silicon factories [1] - New furnace installations in Sichuan and Yunnan are on the rise, with expectations of a week-on-week production increase in the southwest region [1] - In Xinjiang, while some large factories maintain stable production, smaller silicon plants are less motivated to resume production due to low profit margins from previous low prices, resulting in overall stable production levels [1] Demand Side - There is an anticipated significant increase in the production of polysilicon in August, which will boost demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy sector is operating steadily, while demand remains relatively average; organic silicon also has production increase expectations [1] - Despite a continuous decrease in standard warehouse receipts, the overall industry inventory remains at a high level [1] Market Overview - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, leading to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term, although there is still pressure on inventory absorption [1] - Market sentiment has slightly diminished, but related products like coking coal have seen significant price increases, providing support for the lower end of the market [1] - The main contract is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Group 1 - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is exhibiting a "passive defensive" characteristic despite ongoing weak domestic economic data, primarily influenced by fluctuations in the US dollar (USD) [1] - The CAD is showing relative strength among non-USD currencies due to the lack of clear monetary easing signals from the Bank of Canada, leading to a "weakness selection" market logic [1] - The options market for CAD reflects a cautious but not pessimistic sentiment, with a slight dominance of put options indicating short-term downside risk, yet overall volatility remains stable without signs of panic [1] Group 2 - The USD/CAD pair is currently trading above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.3740, indicating a consolidation trend [2] - A breakout above the August 1 high of 1.3880 could open up upward potential towards the May 15 high of 1.4000, with further targets at the April 9 low of 1.4075 [2] - Conversely, a drop below the June 16 low of 1.3540 may lead to a decline towards the psychological level of 1.3500 and the September 25 low of 1.3420 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The polyolefin market is gradually shifting to a pattern of strong supply and demand. New production capacities are being released, and maintenance devices are restarting, leading to a significant increase in production. Although social inventories are accumulating, they are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm [4]. - The PP market maintains a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge, with enterprises and traders' inventories accumulating, while downstream maintains low inventories. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the peak season [8]. - The propylene market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price trend is more likely to be range - bound. In August, the weak pattern of the propylene market is difficult to change, and the monthly average price is expected to fluctuate around 6350 yuan/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Plastic Market - **This Week's Review**: The L2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7251, 7344], with an opening price of 7312 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7290 yuan/ton. The market followed cost and sentiment for range - bound fluctuations. The far - month L2601 contract was firm [3][16]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Production is expected to increase by 1.5 tons week - on - week. The import volume in June decreased by 10% month - on - month, reaching the lowest level in the past five years. Social inventories are accumulating but are still at a relatively low level. The start - up rate of agricultural film has improved for three consecutive weeks [4]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The L2509 contract should focus on the range of [7200 - 7350]. Hold the long LP09 arbitrage. Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell for hedging [6]. 3.2 PP Market - **This Week's Review**: The PP2509 contract fluctuated in the range of [7047, 7108], with an opening price of 7098 yuan/ton and a closing price of 7062 yuan/ton. The market followed macro - sentiment fluctuations, with significantly reduced volatility and a downward - shifting center of gravity. The fundamentals showed little supply - demand contradiction, with both supply and demand being weak [7][55]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand. The upstream operating rate has remained at around 77% for six consecutive weeks, and downstream demand is at the transition point between the off - season and peak season. The inventory structure of the upper and middle reaches continues to diverge [8]. - **Strategy**: Close short positions and look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks. The PP2509 contract should focus on the range of [7000 - 7200]. Wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3.3 Propylene Market - **This Week's Review**: The PL2601 contract fluctuated in the range of [6416, 6555], with an opening price of 6480 yuan/ton and a closing price of 6451 yuan/ton [10][83]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: A new propylene plant in Ningbo has produced products and plans to export. A large number of propylene shipments may enter the market in the short term, suppressing the US dollar market price. The demand side has seen some improvement in production enthusiasm. The market may show a pattern of "both supply and demand increasing", and the price is expected to be range - bound [11]. - **Strategy**: Look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks at the current low price level. The PL2601 contract should focus on the range of [6300 - 6500]. Hold the long PP - PL01 spread arbitrage [12]. 3.4 Macro Review and Outlook - **This Week's Review**: The overall weekly increase was PVC > polyolefin = commodity > energy - chemical. Coking coal continued its upward trend, and PVC was more affected by the cost - side coal. WTI oil prices fell below the key support level, and the oil - chemical sector was weak [13]. - **Next Week's Outlook**: Pay attention to tariff dynamics and domestic anti - involution policy changes [13].

Group 1 - The article discusses the volatility in gold prices, indicating a range between 3375 and 3320, with expectations of continued fluctuations within this range unless a breakout occurs [4][5] - The analysis suggests that if gold breaks above 3400 or below 3285, it may lead to further movements, but currently, the market is expected to respect the established range [4] - The article emphasizes a bullish long-term outlook for gold, recommending low-buy strategies within the established support levels [5] Group 2 - International crude oil prices experienced a drop but found support around 65.5, leading to a rebound and closing at 66.7, indicating a low-level consolidation rather than a strong trend [6] - The outlook for crude oil remains bullish, with a target of 69, and if that level is broken, the next target would be 72 [6] - Domestic fuel oil is experiencing low volatility, with a focus on maintaining positions below 2850 for potential long positions, while short-term targets are set at 2900 and 3000 [6] Group 3 - Silver prices are showing minor fluctuations, with a support level at 37.3, and expectations of a potential upward movement towards 38.6 [5] - The article notes that silver's recent adjustments suggest it is nearing the end of its correction phase, with trading strategies focused on either buying at support or selling at resistance [5] - The domestic silver market is also experiencing limited movement, with a focus on short-term trading strategies around the 8950 support level [5]