反身性原理

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924行情一周年:投资能不能赚钱,靠的不是牛市,而是这一点
雪球· 2025-09-25 08:08
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of having a personal investment system to navigate market fluctuations and make informed decisions, rather than relying on external advice or luck [6][10][14]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett began reducing his holdings in Apple from Q4 2023, while George Soros increased his investment in the same stock during Q2 and Q3 of 2024, showcasing contrasting investment strategies [4][5]. - The differing decisions of Buffett and Soros stem from their unique investment philosophies: Buffett focuses on value investing and long-term holding, while Soros capitalizes on market momentum and the reflexivity principle [6][7][8]. Group 2: Importance of a Personal Investment System - A user’s experience illustrates the pitfalls of not having a personal investment system, as they missed out on gains during a bull market due to a lack of confidence and understanding of their investment decisions [10][12][14]. - Successful investors maintain a consistent investment system that aligns with their personal values and risk tolerance, which is crucial for long-term success [14]. Group 3: Asset Allocation as an Investment System - The article advocates for asset allocation as the most suitable investment system for ordinary investors, emphasizing the need for understanding the underlying investment philosophy and decision-making process [15][16]. - The "three-part method" of asset allocation is introduced, which includes determining what to buy, how much to invest based on risk tolerance, and when to buy and sell [17][18][20]. Group 4: Practical Application of Asset Allocation - The three-part method encourages diversification across various asset classes to mitigate risks and enhance overall returns, with a focus on long-term investment rather than timing the market [17][20]. - The method also includes a rebalancing feature, allowing investors to adjust their portfolio based on performance, which promotes disciplined investment practices [21].