证 券 研 究 报 告 【资产配置快评】2026 年第 9 期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 ❖ 投资摘要： It always seems impossible until it's done. 资产配置快评 2026 年 03 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：郭忠良 邮箱：guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090002 相关研究报告 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 8 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-02-24 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 7 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-02-09 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 6 期：Riders on the Charts：每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2026-02-04 《金银巨震，大类资产风波又起——总量"创" 辩第 121 期》 2026-02-03 《资产配置快评 2026 年第 5 期：美联储重回"观 望"模式——1 月美联储议息会议点评 2026 年 第 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 外部烽烟再起，稳健为主 策略周报 分析师：郝一凡 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《波动明显上升，适度回归稳健 —策 略周报》2026-02-01 2、《理性降温，景气度仍是避风港 —策 略周报》2026-01-18 3、《跨年波动或有上升，不改高景气主 线 —策略周报》2026-01-04 4、《继续耐心布局高景气 —策略周报》 2025-12-21 5、《由守转攻，布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 投资要点 分析师：刘芳 【债市方面】止盈意愿有望减弱，区间震荡为主。春节后在两会前，债市存 在一定止盈压力，观望情绪上升。但外部冲突风险上升，风险偏好回落或利于 债市，债市调整风险有限。后续关注政策目标设定，若经济增长、赤字率目标 等设定并未明显强于预期，则债市风 ...

业内人士指出：上证指数接近4200点压力位，A股热点轮动加快，相比追涨单一热门题材，投资者更需 注意均衡、分散布局。投资工具方面，可以借助均衡型宽基指数，把握"模糊的正确"，例如沪深300指 数，全面覆盖科技、消费、周期等板块龙头，成分股兼顾业绩优和结构均衡，是布局"政策预期"和"业 绩景气"的好工具。 三月渐近，全国重要会议即将召开。按照惯例，重要会议上将发布政府工作报告，有望提出2026年工作 目标，包括GDP增速、通胀、赤字率目标、货币政策与财政政策安排等，通过已经召开完毕的地方会 议，预计"稳定经济增长、扩大内需"是今年会议的重点；2026年同时还是"十五五"开局之年，三月重要 会议预计将审查国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要草案，"发展未来科技产业""反内卷"等也成 为市场关注的方向。 截至目前，被动跟踪沪深300指数的ETF数量多达30余只，华夏基金管理的沪深300ETF华夏 （510330.SH）流动性较优，且管理费率为最低一档，为0.15%/年。场外基金投资者可以逢低定投华夏 沪深300ETF联接C（005658.OF），免申购费，持有期限超7日后亦免赎回费。 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - Significant style shift in overseas stock markets, particularly in the U.S., with value stocks outperforming growth stocks[5] - As of February 20, the value long/short hedge fund strategy index rose by 9.7%, while the growth long/short hedge fund strategy index fell by 1.6%, resulting in a performance gap exceeding 10%[7] - The equal-weighted S&P 500 index's monthly performance difference compared to the market-cap weighted S&P 500 index reached 3.4%, the highest level since 2010[16] Group 2: Risk and Returns - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index was 4.2% as of February 13, which is one standard deviation below the 16-year average, indicating potential for valuation uplift[19] - The forward arbitrage return for China's 10-year government bonds was 29 basis points, 59 basis points higher than the level in December 2016[21] - The total return ratio of domestic stocks to bonds was 28.7 as of February 13, above the 16-year average, suggesting increased attractiveness of equity assets relative to fixed income[29] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Indicators - The copper-gold price ratio reached 2.5 as of February 20, indicating a convergence with the offshore RMB exchange rate of 6.9, suggesting alignment in signals from both indicators[27] - The 3-month USD/JPY basis swap was -16.8 basis points as of February 20, indicating increased offshore dollar financing pressure relief due to higher usage of the Fed's standing repo facility[24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of investing in resilient assets that can withstand market fluctuations, highlighting the value ETF E Fund (fund code: 159263) which tracks the Guozheng Value 100 Index, known for its solid fundamentals and ability to provide stable returns regardless of market conditions [1]. Performance Summary - Since 2013, the Guozheng Value 100 Index has achieved an annualized return of 18%, outperforming the Zhongzheng Dividend Index which returned 11.3% [2]. - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has demonstrated strong performance across various market conditions, with only one year (2015) in the past 13 years where it underperformed the Zhongzheng Dividend Index [2]. Historical Performance Data - The Guozheng Value 100 Index has shown resilience during bear markets, gaining 48.2% from 2021 to 2024 while the Zhongzheng Dividend Index only increased by 21.3% [3]. - In bullish markets from 2016 to 2018, the Guozheng Value 100 Index rose by 117.0%, outperforming the Zhongzheng Dividend Index by 57.7% [3]. Investment Strategy - The Guozheng Value 100 Index combines high dividend yield, strong free cash flow, and low valuation to select stocks, addressing the common issues of high dividend but low growth and volatility associated with pure free cash flow strategies [5]. - This dual approach provides investors with a "double insurance" by ensuring stable dividends during downturns and growth potential during upturns, making it suitable for long-term holding regardless of market conditions [7]. Historical Holding Performance - Historical data indicates that holding the Guozheng Value 100 Index for one year results in a profit in 84.8% of the periods, and 96.5% for two years, with an average one-year return of 20.8% [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that investors are advised to "hold stocks during the festival" based on historical patterns, improving fundamentals, and potential recovery in risk appetite [1][2][3] - Historical data indicates a significant "Spring Festival effect" in the A-share market, with an 81% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the week before the festival and a 76% probability in the week after [2][6] - Multiple securities firms, including Dongwu Securities and Huajin Securities, believe that the current market conditions, characterized by a gradual reduction of suppressive factors, will create space for a post-festival rally [2][3] Group 2 - The market style typically shifts significantly before and after the Spring Festival, with a preference for defensive sectors like banks and food and beverage before the festival, and a transition to cyclical and growth stocks afterward [4][6] - Historical quantitative data shows that the CSI 300 Index (representing large caps) outperforms the CSI 2000 Index (representing small caps) in the week before the festival, while the reverse is true in the week after [4] - Analysts from Galaxy Securities note that the market is currently exhibiting typical "pre-festival risk aversion," with funds moving away from high-valuation technology and cyclical sectors towards value and consumption themes [4][8] Group 3 - Despite the optimistic outlook for the Spring Festival market, potential risks remain, particularly from external uncertainties that could impact post-festival market sentiment [5][6] - The upcoming long holiday may lead to a short-term market fluctuation as some funds may choose to exit the market to avoid overseas volatility [6][8] - Analysts emphasize the need to monitor two main areas: uncertainties in overseas markets, including fluctuations in Federal Reserve policy and geopolitical tensions, and potential short-term liquidity shocks from pre-festival fund exits [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing interest in cash flow assets amid market fluctuations, with nearly 1 billion yuan net inflow into cash flow ETF (159399) over the past 10 days [1] - Huachuang Securities points out that the current A-share bull market exhibits high Sharpe characteristics, attributed to continuous shareholder returns exceeding financing scale for four consecutive years, and a reversal in the investment and financing landscape leading to high Sharpe ratios for stocks [1] - The stable free cash flow generation capability of A-shares, with the proportion of non-financial free cash flow remaining stable at 20-25%, is expected to reduce reliance on financing environments and short-term economic cycles, thereby lowering price volatility [1] Group 2 - The FTSE cash flow index, which the cash flow ETF (159399) tracks, has outperformed the CSI Dividend Index and the CSI 300 Index for nine consecutive years from 2016 to 2024 [1] - The cash flow ETF (159399) focuses on large and mid-cap stocks, with a higher proportion of central state-owned enterprises compared to similar cash flow indices, allowing for monthly dividend assessments [1] - Investors are encouraged to pay attention to the cash flow ETF (159399) as corporate profitability is expected to improve with the completion of the transition from old to new growth drivers, and the drag from real estate nearing its end [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic direction of state-owned enterprises during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on the integration and optimization of resources, innovation, and the development of emerging industries [1] Group 1: Strategic Initiatives - State-owned capital will drive the "three concentrations" strategy to promote restructuring and optimization [1] - There will be a strong emphasis on independent and original innovation, alongside the implementation of the "AI+" special action plan [1] - The focus will be on emerging industries such as renewable energy, aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, and 6G, with future planning for intelligent embodiment, biomanufacturing, marine energy, and green shipping [1] Group 2: Industry and Market Performance - The CSI A500 index emphasizes industry balance and leading companies, providing a more diversified and growth-oriented investment opportunity compared to the CSI 300 index [1] - As of the end of 2025, the CSI A500 index has increased by 464.28% since its base date, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which has risen by 361.15%, resulting in an excess return of 103.13% [1] - The number of clients for the Guotai CSI A500 ETF is the highest in its category, being more than three times that of the second-ranked competitor [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company "Bank Screw" has completely suspended subscriptions to its stock-related fund advisory portfolio, indicating that the current stock market is relatively high and investors may face a volatility risk of 20-30% if they enter now [2][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - The current stock market is perceived as being at a high level, prompting the suspension of fund subscriptions [3][19]. - For ordinary investors, dividend index funds are recommended due to their relatively lower volatility, making them more suitable as an entry point [3][10]. - The recent performance of the STAR Market and ChiNext has shown significant volatility, making them more appropriate for experienced investors with higher risk tolerance [3][9]. - In 2026, two key signals to watch are the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of fundamentals, which could impact market conditions significantly [4][22]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A notable phenomenon exists where funds may be profitable while individual investors are not, with 37% of investors still losing money despite a bull market [7][8]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [8][10]. - The growth of dividend products has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [11][12]. Group 3: Valuation and Investment Timing - The historical price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the CSI 300 is between 8-15, with the current P/E ratio slightly above this range, indicating a potential overvaluation [14][15]. - Investors are advised to be cautious during bull markets, as significant price increases may not be sustainable, leading to potential mean reversion [16][17]. - The optimal investment strategy varies by market phase, with dividend stocks being more suitable in the latter stages of a bull market and early stages of a bear market [12][13]. Group 4: Key Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the overall recovery of corporate earnings are critical indicators for market performance in 2026 [22][27]. - Observing the year-on-year growth of corporate earnings in the first half of the year will be essential to gauge market momentum [28].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market and investment strategies, emphasizing the risks associated with high market valuations and the importance of cautious investment approaches for ordinary investors [2][24]. Group 1: Market Conditions and Investment Strategies - "Banking Screw" has completely suspended the subscription of stock-related fund advisory portfolios, indicating a belief that the current stock market is relatively high, with potential volatility risks of 20-30% for new investors [2][24]. - Ordinary investors are advised to consider low-volatility dividend index funds as a more suitable entry point due to their relative stability compared to high-volatility sectors like the Sci-Tech Board and Growth Enterprise Market [4][12]. - The article highlights the importance of understanding market cycles, suggesting that in a bull market's later stages, investors should be cautious and consider dividend strategies, while growth stocks may be more suitable during bear market recovery phases [18][19]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Fund Performance - A significant portion of fund investors have experienced losses despite overall fund profitability, with 37% of investors losing money even in a bull market as of September 2025 [9][10]. - The primary reasons for investor losses include chasing market trends and frequent trading, which lead to higher transaction costs and lower average returns [10][11]. - The article notes that the growth of dividend funds has been accelerated by declining interest rates, making their cash flow more attractive compared to traditional savings [13][14]. Group 3: Key Signals for 2026 - Two critical signals for 2026 include the Federal Reserve's interest rate cycle and the recovery of corporate earnings, which could significantly impact market conditions [5][30]. - The article emphasizes the need to monitor the recovery of earnings growth to historical averages, as this could provide a positive push for the overall market [37][38]. - The potential tightening of global liquidity due to the end of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is highlighted as a risk factor that could affect previously high-performing assets [33][34].