证券研究报告 港股通 我们认为此次股权出售对长江基建归母净利的影响主要体现在以下三个方 面：1）出售的股权对应的归母净利贡献：我们测算 2020-2024 年 UKPN 对 长江基建年均贡献归母净利 22.33 亿港元。2）股权出售录得的一次性收益： 据公司公告，长江基建预期录得收益 145 亿港元。3）回笼现金贡献的利息 收益：据公司公告，长江基建/电能实业所持 40/40%股权交易对价~443/443 亿港元，考虑长江基建对电能实业持股 36%，我们按年收益率 3%进行粗略 计算（参考恒生银行保本投资存款回报率），将贡献归母净利 18.08 亿港元。 即回笼现金带来的利息收益能弥补部分因股权出售带来的应占合联营公司 业绩下滑，若不考虑一次性收益，此次股权出售后，长江基建或存在~4 亿 港元的年度利润缺口。 出售 UKPN 增厚现金储备，全球扩张能力再上新阶 公司坚持并购驱动成长，受疫情与利率影响，2019-2023 年公司未进行并 购。2024 年公司重启并购，4/8 月收购北爱尔兰配气商 Phoenix Energy/ 英国风电场 UK Renewables Energy，5 月收购英国可再生能源资产 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of HKD 22.09 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 43.48 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year. The company maintains a strong risk resilience in its business model and anticipates potential increases in returns from various assets in 2025/26, leading to a stable or increasing profit outlook, thus maintaining a "buy" rating [1]. Group 1 - The UK business contributed a profit of HKD 22.23 billion in 1H25, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, benefiting from the strong performance of regulated assets and the appreciation of the GBP [2]. - The Australian business reported a profit contribution of HKD 7.93 billion in 1H25, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year, primarily due to the expiration of several contracts and a decline in market electricity prices [2]. - The Canadian business's profit contribution was HKD 2.75 billion in 1H25, down 8.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in generation and electricity prices at Canadian Power gas plants [2]. Group 2 - The company expects an increase in allowed returns for regulated assets entering new regulatory periods in 2025/26, which will support future earnings growth [3]. - The Northumbrian Water (NW) is set to enter a new regulatory period on April 1, 2025, and is currently seeking a re-determination from regulators to secure better terms, with an expected increase in allowed returns [3]. - The company adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 87.9 billion, and HKD 92.9 billion respectively, reflecting slight adjustments from previous estimates [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of HKD 3.52 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 22.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 30.42 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year, aligning closely with previous forecasts [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company declared an interim dividend of HKD 16.62 billion, unchanged year-on-year, representing 54.6% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a corresponding DPS of HKD 0.78, also unchanged year-on-year [1] - The UK and Hong Kong segments contributed profit increases of 11.2% and 5.7% respectively, while the Australian segment saw a profit decrease of 4.3% due to expiring contracts and declining market electricity prices [2] - The company expects profit contributions from regulated assets to improve in the future, particularly as several assets enter new regulatory periods in 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment and Future Outlook - The company anticipates an increase in allowed return rates for regulated assets entering new regulatory periods, which is expected to support stable profit growth [3] - In the UK, Northumbrian Water is set to enter a new regulatory period in April 2025, with an appeal for better terms currently pending [3] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of HKD 61.6 billion, HKD 65.7 billion, and HKD 68.7 billion respectively, with a target price of HKD 67.13 based on a projected PB of 1.64x for 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HKD 22.09 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 10.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 43.48 billion, reflecting a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year. The interim dividend declared was HKD 18.39 billion, representing 42.3% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a corresponding DPS of HKD 0.73 [1][2][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in profit due to the anticipated adjustment in return rates for several assets in 2025/26, which will enhance earnings stability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The UK business contributed a profit of HKD 22.23 billion in 1H25, up 19.2% year-on-year, driven by the robust operation of regulated assets and a strong GBP exchange rate. The contribution from the Australian business was HKD 7.93 billion, down 8.2% year-on-year, primarily due to contract expirations and declining market electricity prices. The Canadian business reported a profit of HKD 2.75 billion, down 8.6% year-on-year, due to reduced generation and pricing at gas plants [2][4]. Regulatory Environment - Several regulated assets that entered the previous regulatory period during the low-interest rate environment of 2020/21 are expected to enter a new regulatory period in 2025/26, which is anticipated to lead to an increase in allowed return rates, supporting future earnings growth [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected net profits of HKD 81.2 billion, HKD 87.9 billion, and HKD 92.9 billion respectively. The corresponding EPS for 2025 is projected at HKD 3.22. The target price is set at HKD 64.62, based on a price-to-book ratio of 1.32x for 2025 [4][10].