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棕榈油:油价扰动持续,高位震荡运行;豆油:豆系驱动不大,RVO利多出尽表现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil prices are continuously affected by oil price fluctuations and are operating in a high - level volatile range; soybean oil shows a situation where the driving force of the soybean series is not significant, and the positive effects of RVO have been fully realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton with a 1.60% increase, and night - session was 9,692 yuan/ton with a - 0.78% decrease; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,688 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and night - session was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% decrease; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price was 9,877 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and night - session was 9,762 yuan/ton with a - 1.16% decrease. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil was 4,630 ringgit/ton with a 1.03% increase, and CBOT soybean oil was 67.22 cents/pound with a - 1.18% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 348,165 lots with an increase of 26,169 lots, and open interest was 288,414 lots with an increase of 8,470 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 201,453 lots with an increase of 15,480 lots, and open interest was 537,668 lots with a decrease of 7,724 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 147,326 lots with a decrease of 14,319 lots, and open interest was 213,002 lots with a decrease of 5,414 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no change; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,185 dollars/ton with a 10 - unit increase [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 118 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 332 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 273 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 109 yuan/ton (previously 226 yuan/ton), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,080 yuan/ton (previously - 968 yuan/ton), the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 44 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 97 yuan/ton (previously 102 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The EPA has finalized the renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026 and 2027, which are the highest in the program's history. The total renewable fuel obligation in 2026 is 25.82 billion RINs, and in 2027 is 25.98 billion RINs [3] - Malaysia, a major palm oil exporter, is taking measures to ensure fertilizer supply due to the increase in fertilizer prices and domestic supply shortage caused by the Middle East conflict [4] - The Rural Economics Institute of Paraná, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean crop yield in the state in the 2025/26 season to be 21.89 million tons, lower than the February estimate of 22.12 million tons [4] - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 13th week of 2026 (March 21 - 27) was 1.8352 million tons, 0.1553 million tons less than the previous week and 0.1021 million tons lower than the estimated volume, with an actual startup rate of 50.53% [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched a devastating drone attack on Israeli military support bases, military transportation centers, and military force assembly areas at Ben - Gurion Airport, which is expected to threaten Israel's supply lines and affect its offensive combat capabilities [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [6]