国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货油脂月报 油脂 美国生物柴油或逐步落地 利多能否兑现成关键 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2026 年 3 月 1 日 国际方面，3月美豆油市场则面临多项生物柴油政策落地，政策与预期能 否兑现成为关键，市场希望美豆油强预期的兑现。目前美豆油供给增加明显， 但需求增幅不明显，库存压力明显，如果政策利好落地，强预期向强现实转化， 那么美豆油或继续走高，如果掺混政策不及预期，那么美豆油则面临利多出尽， 回吐涨幅的可能。 对于马棕油市场而言，沉重的库存压力是制约价格走高的关键所在。从 库存来看，2025年以来马棕油库存变动情况与2018年-2019年同期较为相似， 2019年2月马棕油库存见顶回落，而2025年12月马棕油库存见顶回落。马棕油 价格在7月止跌反弹因库存降至240万吨以下。由此可以预计，短期马棕油价格 或因库存高企而低位震荡反复。一旦库存降至240万吨以下，价格或迎来上涨 契机。2月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is affected by repeated macro - sentiment and has limited fundamental drivers, and soybean oil is in a range - bound adjustment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Price and Volume**: Palm oil futures (main contract) closed at 9,026 yuan/ton in the day session with a - 0.18% change and 8,996 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.33% change; soybean oil futures (main contract) closed at 8,102 yuan/ton in the day session with a - 0.02% change and 8,122 yuan/ton at night with a 0.25% change; rapeseed oil futures (main contract) closed at 9,144 yuan/ton in the day session with no change and 9,156 yuan/ton at night with a 0.13% change. The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil and rapeseed oil futures also changed [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,080 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; the price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,650 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,090 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil (Guangdong) was 54 yuan/ton, soybean oil (Guangdong) was 548 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 946 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures main contracts was 118 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures main contracts was - 924 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - From February 1 - 5, 2026, the yield of Malaysian palm oil increased by 5.71% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.37% month - on - month, and the output increased by 7.65% month - on - month according to SPPOMA data [2] - Brazilian soybean sales in the 2025/26 season reached 33.9% of the expected output, lower than 42.4% in the same period last year according to a report by Safras & Mercado [3] - In the 6th week of 2026 (January 31 - February 6), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.484 million tons, an increase of 187,900 tons from the previous week and 112,400 tons higher than the estimated volume, with an actual startup rate of 68.33% [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is 0 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of US soybean oil increased significantly, while the price of Malaysian palm oil declined relatively. Affected by this, the price of domestic oils dropped significantly, with rapeseed oil experiencing the largest decline [6]. - The market anticipates that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January will decrease, ending the consecutive 10 - month growth trend due to seasonal production decline and increased exports [11]. - The new US 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule has boosted the market's optimistic expectations for the demand outlook of US soybean oil [6]. - Next week, the MPOB and USDA reports are due. The market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect palm oil production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern, while the domestic oil market is weaker and awaits the guidance of the two key reports [62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 3.1.1 Oil Market Review - This week, the US dollar and international crude oil prices dropped at the beginning of the week, putting pressure on US soybean oil. However, after the US Treasury issued the 45Z proposed rule, the price of US soybean oil soared, with two consecutive days of about 2% growth. On Thursday, international crude oil prices fell sharply, and US soybean oil oscillated at a high level [6]. - The price of Malaysian palm oil declined. At the beginning of the week, a collective plunge in commodities led to panic selling by long - position holders. Although supported by rising surrounding oils and the possible decline in January inventory, it still oscillated within a narrow lower range due to falling international crude oil prices and inventory pressure [6]. - Domestic oils dropped significantly, with a weekly decline of about 3%. Rapeseed oil led the decline due to increased supply pressure after the entry of Australian rapeseed into the crushing process. Subsequently, Dalian soybean oil and Dalian palm oil followed the downward trend. In the following days, the domestic oil market oscillated around the lowest point on Monday [6]. 3.1.2 Recent International Oil Information - In January, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 14.9% - 17.9%. The production in South Malaysia decreased by 13.08% month - on - month, and the estimated production in Malaysia decreased by 14% to 1.57 million tons [10]. - Analysts expect the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of January to drop to 2.89 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% from the end of December. The production in January is estimated to be 1.62 million tons, a 11.5% decrease from December, and exports are estimated to be 1.42 million tons, a 7.6% increase from December [11]. - Indonesia will ban the export of palm oil waste, aiming to ensure domestic demand and promote energy self - sufficiency [11]. - The US IRS issued the 45Z bio - tax credit proposed rule, with a 60 - day public comment period and a hearing scheduled for May 28, 2026. The policy is applicable until December 31, 2029 [12]. - As of December 31, 2025, the US soybean oil inventory was 2.179 billion pounds, a 0.7% increase from the end of November and a 29.2% increase from the end of December 2024, but lower than market expectations [13]. - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol - blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 but has to postpone the plan due to limited ethanol supply [13]. - From February 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 239,675 tons, a 1.87% decrease from the same period last month [13]. 3.1.3 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 5th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 1.9939 million tons, a weekly decrease of 51,000 tons, a 2.49% month - on - month decrease, and a 2.88% year - on - year decrease [29]. - Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.0912 million tons, a weekly decrease of 5,100 tons, a 0.47% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.61% year - on - year increase; the edible palm oil inventory was 639,300 tons, a weekly decrease of 32,600 tons, a 4.85% month - on - month decrease, and a 48.26% year - on - year increase; the rapeseed oil inventory was 263,400 tons, a weekly decrease of 13,300 tons, a 4.81% month - on - month decrease, and a 56.67% year - on - year decrease [29]. 3.1.4 Oil Basis Analysis - The report presents the basis analysis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions and different contract months, showing the basis trends over time [34][37][41]. 3.1.5 Oil - to - Oil Futures Spread Relationship - This week, the overall oil price trend was soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread slightly rebounded [46]. 3.1.6 Oil Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil slightly declined, while the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil had limited fluctuations [49]. 3.2 Part 2: Future Market Outlook 3.2.1 Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal indices of domestic and international soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal, showing their price trends and seasonal characteristics throughout the year [54][56][59]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level (Main Contracts)**: For soybean oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are intertwined; for palm oil, short - term indicators are intertwined, and medium - and long - term indicators are bullish; for rapeseed oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are all intertwined [61]. - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, geopolitical risks are high, and international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply. If the price of international crude oil stays above $60 per barrel, it will boost biodiesel production. The MPOB and USDA reports are due next week, and the market expects a significant decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in January. Increased rainfall in Southeast Asian palm oil - producing areas may affect production. The international oil market remains in a high - level and relatively strong oscillation pattern. Domestically, the oil market is weaker than the international market. As the Spring Festival approaches, spot sales have stagnated, and the futures market mainly follows the international oil market. Capital is leaving the market before the festival, and the market may find support at the lower end of the range, waiting for the guidance of the two key reports [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall financial market shows a complex and volatile trend, with different sectors affected by various factors such as macro - economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand relationships. For example, the stock index futures market is affected by risk preferences and commodity price fluctuations; the bond market has opportunities due to the change of risk preferences; the agricultural product market is influenced by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply and demand; the black metal market is affected by factors such as production, inventory, and downstream demand; the non - ferrous metal market is influenced by factors such as the US economic data, geopolitical risks, and supply and demand; the energy and chemical market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks, supply and demand, and cost [19][22][25] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences continue to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a slightly stronger direction due to the strength of heavy - weight stocks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips; for arbitrage, conduct IM\IC long 2609 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; for options, use bull spreads [20][21] Bond Index Futures - Core view: Risk preferences are fluctuating. The bond market performs relatively strongly, but the sentiment is still cautious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips for TF and T contracts; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [22][23] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Core view: The demand side of US soybeans has improved, and the domestic soybean meal cost is supported, but the supply is becoming looser. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be on the sidelines in the short term; for arbitrage, expand the MRM spread; for options, use the short straddle strategy [25][26] Sugar - Core view: International sugar prices are at the bottom and oscillating, while domestic sugar prices are relatively strong and are also expected to oscillate at the bottom. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to pay attention to whether the previous low of international sugar prices can be effectively broken, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [31][32][33] Oil and Fat Sector - Core view: Oils and fats maintain a wide - range oscillation. The market is affected by factors such as trade and policy expectations, and there is a callback demand. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly or go long on dips after the callback; for arbitrage, consider the y59 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [34][35] Corn/Corn Starch - Core view: The spot price in the production area is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on the US 03 corn contract after it stabilizes and short on the 03 corn contract lightly on rallies; for arbitrage, widen the spread between 05 corn and starch; for options, stay on the sidelines [37][38] Live Pigs - Core view: The supply pressure has improved, and the spot price has risen slightly, but there is still pressure in the follow - up. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading and arbitrage are recommended to be on the sidelines; for options, use the short straddle strategy [40][41] Peanuts - Core view: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates in a narrow range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies lightly for the 03 peanut contract; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [42][43][44] Eggs - Core view: Pre - festival stocking is coming to an end, and egg prices have fallen. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to short on rallies for the June contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [45][46][47] Apples - Core view: Pre - festival sales are good, and apple prices are firm. The May contract price is expected to rise easily and fall hard. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the May contract and short on rallies for the October contract; for arbitrage, long the May contract and short the October contract; for options, stay on the sidelines [48][49][50] Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Core view: The fundamentals change little, and cotton prices are supported. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips for the Zhengzhou cotton contract in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [52][53] Black Metals Steel - Core view: The demand is weakening marginally, and steel prices continue to oscillate following raw materials. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to follow the raw materials and oscillate weakly; for arbitrage, short the coil - coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [55][56] Coking Coal and Coke - Core view: The market is mainly driven by funds and emotions, with large fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to trade in bands and wait for opportunities to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [57][58][59] Iron Ore - Core view: Market expectations are fluctuating, and iron ore prices are running weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [60][61] Ferroalloys - Core view: The cost support is strong, and the previous long positions can be held. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the previous long positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options [62][63] Non - ferrous Metals Gold and Silver - Core view: Pessimistic sentiment is spreading, and short - term fluctuations are intensifying. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [65][67][68] Platinum and Palladium - Core view: Under the strong US dollar, the metals are oscillating. Be cautious when participating in unilateral trading. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be long on dips cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [68][69] Copper - Core view: Pay attention to the change of sentiment before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [70][73][74] Alumina - Core view: Short - term marginal changes in production capacity cause fluctuations. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly in the short term; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [75][76][77] Electrolytic Aluminum - Core view: Wait for the volatility to decline before the Spring Festival, and the medium - term expectation remains unchanged. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be cautious; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [78][79] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Core view: Oscillate following the sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options are recommended to stay on the sidelines [80][81] Zinc - Core view: Pay attention to the change of market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the short positions and move the stop - loss line down; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [82][84][85] Lead - Core view: Oscillate within a range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly within a range; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [86][88] Nickel - Core view: Oscillate following the non - ferrous metal sector. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then go long; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [89][91] Stainless Steel - Core view: Supported by cost, follow the nickel price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival and go long on dips after the price stabilizes; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines [93][96] Industrial Silicon - Core view: The expectation of organic silicon production reduction increases, revising the previous view. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [97][99] Polysilicon - Core view: Industry self - discipline and price - support expectations rise again, and the market fluctuates more. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be strong in oscillation and operate cautiously; for arbitrage and options, there is no recommendation for now [100][101] Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Before the Spring Festival, it is dominated by sentiment, and wait for the volatility to decline. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to reduce the exposure; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the out - of - the - money put options after the price stabilizes [102][104] Tin - Core view: Pay attention to the market sentiment. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate cautiously; for options, stay on the sidelines [105][106] Shipping Container Shipping - Core view: Shipping companies announce price increases in March, and pay attention to the geopolitical situation in Iran. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, conduct the 6 - 10 calendar spread [107][108][109] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Core view: Wait for the outcome of events. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to be weak in oscillation; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [110][111][113] Asphalt - Core view: There are still concerns about the increase in raw material costs and supply gaps in the medium term. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level and go long on dips for the BU2606 contract; for arbitrage, pay attention to the long BU and short LU spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [114][115][116] Fuel Oil - Core view: The high - sulfur spot market is always strong, and pay attention to the short - term geopolitical risks. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate strongly and pay attention to geopolitical fluctuations; for arbitrage, hold the FU59 calendar spread and pay attention to the LU near - month reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [118][119][120] LPG - Core view: Oscillate and consolidate before the Spring Festival. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [121][123] Natural Gas - Core view: Geopolitical risks reach a critical point, and cold weather is about to affect Eurasia. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to continue to hold the short positions for the TTF and JKM third - quarter contracts and the HH second - quarter contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [123][124] PX&PTA - Core view: Polyester production cuts are gradually implemented, and textile sales are gradually stopping. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [126][127] BZ&EB - Core view: The supply - demand balance is expected to improve, and benzene ethylene is in a stage of destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage, conduct the calendar spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [128][130][131] Ethylene Glycol - Core view: The inventory accumulation pressure is obvious. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [132][133] Short - fiber - Core view: Short - fiber factories reduce production as planned. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [134][135] Bottle Chips - Core view: The processing margin is strengthening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate and consolidate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [136][137] Propylene - Core view: The supply - demand support is acceptable, and the spot price is running strongly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate at a high level; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [139][140][141] Plastic PP - Core view: The PP production profit margin has improved slightly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the L 2605 contract and the PP 2605 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [142][143] Caustic Soda - Core view: The caustic soda price is weak. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate weakly; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [144][146][147] PVC - Core view: Oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [150][151] Soda Ash - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [152][155][156] Glass - Core view: The price is weakening. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies before the Spring Festival; for arbitrage, short glass and long soda ash; for options, short the call options [157][159] Methanol - Core view: Run weakly. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 59 calendar spread; for options, short the put options on the callback [160][161][164] Urea - Core view: The market turns weak again. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to oscillate; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [165][167] Pulp - Core view: The pulp price continues to oscillate in a wide range. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to operate within the range and long on dips for aggressive investors; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the SP2605 - C - 5350 option [168][169][171] Offset Printing Paper - Core view: High inventory suppresses the paper price. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to go short on rallies; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for options, short the OP2604 - C - 4200 option [171][172][178] Logs - Core view: The change of delivery rules is beneficial to the log valuation. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to hold the long positions; for arbitrage, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse spread; for options, stay on the sidelines [175][176][180] Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - Core view: As the Spring Festival approaches, the tire production starts to increase marginally. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the RU 05 contract and the NR 04 contract; for arbitrage, hold the NR2605 - RU2605 spread; for options, reduce the position of the RU2605 call 18250 contract and stay on the sidelines [180][181][183] Butadiene Rubber - Core view: The synthetic rubber inventory turns to year - on - year destocking. - Trading strategy: Unilateral trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the BR 04 contract; for arbitrage and options, stay on the sidelines [184][185][186]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the kinetic energy of US soybeans is limited, and the soybean oil market will mainly operate within a certain range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil (day session) is 8,724 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil (day session) is 7,994 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 512,074 lots, with an increase of 145,968 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil (24 - degree in Guangdong), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong, and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi, along with their price changes, are given. For example, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, as well as various spreads such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month. The yield decreased by 20.49% during this period, and the inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3][5]. - **Global Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production increased by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons. As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6% [5]. - **US Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The 2025/2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 100,000 acres, and the soybean production is expected to increase by 9 million bushels. The US soybean oil production is expected to decrease by 210 million pounds, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 26 million pounds [6][7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting rate of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.6%, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 1 [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, attention should be paid to the situation of negative impacts from the MPOB report being realized [1] - For soybean oil, the momentum of US soybeans is limited, and the unilateral movement will be mainly within a range [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,682 yuan/ton (up 0.81% during the day, down 0.25% at night), soybean oil主力 at 7,994 yuan/ton (up 0.63% during the day, down 0.38% at night), and rapeseed oil主力 at 9,042 yuan/ton (up 0.96% during the day, down 0.71% at night). The Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,038 ringgit/ton (down 0.12%), and the CBOT soybean oil主力 at 49.66 cents/pound (up 0.42%) [1] - **Trading and Positions**: Palm oil主力 had 366,106 lots traded yesterday (a decrease of 264,124 lots), with a position of 400,553 lots (an increase of 6,659 lots); soybean oil主力 had 203,820 lots traded (a decrease of 54,998 lots), with a position of 681,661 lots (an increase of 16,768 lots); rapeseed oil主力 had 199,123 lots traded (a decrease of 110,870 lots), with a position of 245,121 lots (a decrease of 3,461 lots) [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton (a price change of 60 yuan), the first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,530 yuan/ton (a price change of 30 yuan), the fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,950 yuan/ton (a price change of 100 yuan), and the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,025 US dollars/ton (a price change of 20 US dollars) [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 2 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 536 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 908 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 360 yuan/ton (compared to 344 yuan/ton the day before), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 688 yuan/ton (compared to - 668 yuan/ton the day before), the palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 112 yuan/ton (unchanged), the soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 156 yuan/ton (compared to 130 yuan/ton the day before), and the rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 21 yuan/ton (compared to 13 yuan/ton the day before) [1] **Macro and Industry News** - On January 10, 2026, a 7.1 - magnitude earthquake occurred in the sea near North Sulawesi Province, Indonesia [2] - Analysts on average expect the US soybean production in the 2025/26 season to be 4.229 billion bushels, with an estimated range between 4.176 - 4.3 billion bushels, compared to the USDA's previous estimate of 4.253 billion bushels in November [3][4] - The State Council executive meeting pointed out the need to strengthen the coordination and linkage between fiscal and financial policies, and optimize loan discount policies for service - sector businesses and individual consumer loans [4] - In the second week of 2026 (from January 3 to January 9), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, an increase of 12,500 tons compared to the previous week, and 61,100 tons lower than the estimated crushing volume. The actual operating rate was 48.58% [4] **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and that of soybean oil is also 0 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as important fundamental information, macro news, fund flow, and arbitrage tracking [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [1] - The latest prices and percentage changes are also presented for several currency pairs including the US dollar index, Chinese Yuan, Malaysian Ringgit, and others [1] Spot Market - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are reported for different regions in China [2] - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also provided [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - Brazil's soybean - growing regions may experience scattered showers, with pod - filling and grain - swelling accelerating in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern part are a concern for soybean growth [4] - In Argentina, the northern part of the main soybean - producing area may have local showers, while the central and southern parts are mostly dry, which may put pressure on soybean growth [4] International Supply and Demand - USDA reported that private exporters sold 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 tons to unknown destinations for the 2025/2026 season [6] - Anec estimated Brazil's December soybean exports at 302 tons and December soybean meal exports at 187 tons, down from previous forecasts [6] - The deadline for soybean planting in Brazil's Goiás state is January 2, 2026, and farmers must complete crop registration within 15 days after planting [7] - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 67.6% to 9.62 tons in the week ending December 21, but decreased by 42.2% year - to - date compared to the previous year [7] - Canada's grain deliveries increased by 14.2% in November 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, with wheat and rapeseed deliveries rising significantly [8] Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 35,200 tons, a 153% increase from the previous trading day [10] - On December 30, the total trading volume of soybean meal in major Chinese oil mills was 23.73 tons, an increase of 15.14 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 53.46%, up 2.60% [10] - As of December 30, the soybean oil port inventory in China was 103.9 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons from December 23 [10] - On December 30, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased, while the prices of some agricultural products such as pork, eggs, and white - striped chickens increased [11] Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1% [14] - The year - on - year growth rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales in the week ending December 27 was 7.6% [15] - The US Chicago PMI in December was 43.5, higher than the expected 39.8 [15] - The year - on - year growth rate of the US S&P/CS20 major cities' unadjusted housing price index in October was 1.3% [15] - The month - on - month growth rate of the US FHFA housing price index in October was 0.4% [15] - The Fed agreed to cut interest rates in December but had in - depth discussions on the risks faced by the US economy. There are differences among Fed officials [15] - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending December 26 was 174.7 tons, contrary to the expected decrease [16] Domestic News - On December 30, the US dollar/Chinese Yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.0348, up 17 points (depreciation of the Chinese Yuan) [18] - On December 30, the central bank of China conducted 312.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 253.2 billion yuan [18] Fund Flow - On December 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 4.02 billion yuan. The net capital outflow from commodity futures was 15.1 billion yuan, while the net capital inflow from stock index futures was 11.725 billion yuan, and the net capital outflow from treasury bond futures was 0.502 billion yuan [22] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the given content

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and fund flows. It provides insights into the supply and demand dynamics of various commodities, as well as the economic and policy environment at both international and domestic levels [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight prices and price changes are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates and their changes are also presented [1] Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are reported for different regions for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal. CNF premiums and quotes are given for imported soybeans from different origins [2] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - Brazil's soybean - producing regions are expected to receive precipitation this week, which will accelerate soybean pod - filling in January. However, the hot and dry conditions in the central - eastern regions may pose concerns for soybean growth. Argentina's soybean - producing regions are expected to have dry weather this week, which may stress soybean growth [3] 国际供需 - A private exporter reported selling 100,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 season. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending December 25, 2025, was 750,312 tons, meeting expectations. As of December 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 97.9%, and the harvesting rate was 0.1% [5][6] 国内供需 - On December 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 4200 tons (43%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The palm oil inventory increased by 4.87% week - on - week, while the soybean oil inventory decreased by 3.07%. The imported soybean port inventory decreased by 6203 tons. Agricultural product prices showed mixed trends [8][9] Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2026 is 16.1%. The US November existing - home sales contract index monthly rate was 3.3%. Various EIA inventory data for the week ending December 19, 2025, are provided [10] 国内要闻 - On December 29, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 27 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4823 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 4150 billion yuan [12] Fund Flows - On December 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 43.66 billion yuan, including 21.944 billion yuan from commodity futures and 20.358 billion yuan from stock index futures [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It also provides data on domestic and international supply and demand, as well as weather conditions in major producing regions [1][2][4][6][9][11][12][15] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures contracts, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil, are presented. Additionally, the latest prices and percentage changes of several currency indices are provided [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The report shows the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions of China, as well as the CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [2] 3.3 Key Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Producing Area Weather - In Brazil, rainfall in eastern São Paulo and Minas Gerais decreased last week but is expected to return this week; weather conditions in other regions are generally favorable for soybean growth. In Argentina, soil moisture in the major soybean - producing areas is mostly suitable for soybean growth [4] 3.3.2 International Supply and Demand - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while export volume increased according to different institutions. In Brazil, the nutritional growth of soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul is satisfactory, and the yield is expected to increase significantly. In Argentina, the soybean planting rate as of December 23 was 77% [6][7] 3.3.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 52nd week of 2025 decreased, and the estimated crushing volume in January 2026 increased year - on - year. Pig farming is in a loss, and the prices of agricultural products have changed slightly [9][10] 3.4 Macro News 3.4.1 International News - Japan's November unemployment rate remained stable at 2.6%. Japan's December Tokyo CPI and core CPI annual rates decreased, and the unadjusted CPI monthly rate was negative [11] 3.4.2 Domestic News - On December 26, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased (the yuan appreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection on the day and a net withdrawal for the week. The profit of national industrial enterprises from January to November increased slightly year - on - year, but decreased in November [12] 3.5 Fund Flows - On December 26, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 34.966 billion yuan, with different inflow and outflow situations in various sub - markets [15] 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content