【国富期货早间看点】SGS马棕11月前20日出口环比减40.6% Patria巴西大豆播种率为79.61% 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4068. 00 | -2. 05 | | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 62. 51 | -1.08 | 0. 86 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 57.98 | -1. 33 | 0. 89 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1126. 50 | 0. 31 | 0. 74 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 319.80 | 0.66 | 0. 41 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50. 61 | -0. 90 | 0. 76 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 15 | -0. 08 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0875 | -0. 04 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It analyzes data from multiple agricultural and energy commodities, as well as currency exchange rates, to offer insights into market trends and potential investment opportunities [1][6][8][16][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and percentage changes are provided for various futures, including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4124.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.02% and an overnight increase of 0.32% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are given for multiple currency indices, such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 99.56, with a 0.02% increase [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes are presented for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8780, with a basis of 100 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [3]. Important Fundamental Information Region Weather - In Brazil, rainfall may increase in the coming week, which is beneficial for soybean crops. However, growers may be concerned about soil moisture for soybean germination and early growth. In Argentina, current weather is favorable for soybean sowing, but long - term models suggest a possible return to dry conditions [6]. International Supply - Demand - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory at the end of October increased by 4.4% to 2460000 tons, with production up 11.02% to 2040000 tons and exports up 18.58% to 1690000 tons [8]. - AmSpec and ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5% and 12.28% respectively compared to the same period last month [8][9]. - India's soybean oil imports in 2025 may jump by about 40% to 4.7 - 4.9 million tons, while palm oil imports are expected to drop to about 8 million tons [9]. - US soybean and corn harvests are nearly complete, with a 96% soybean harvest rate and a 92% corn harvest rate [9]. - As of November 6, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1088577 tons, in line with expectations [10]. - As of November 8, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 58.4%, and AgRural reported a 61% sowing rate as of last Thursday [10]. - Anec data shows Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for the weeks of October 26 - November 1 and November 2 - 8 [10]. - The Baltic Dry Index ended a four - day increase, mainly due to the decline in Capesize ship freight rates [11]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 40300 tons, a 104% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 193600 tons, an increase of 129700 tons from the previous day. The overall operating rate of oil mills was 56.06%, up 5.26% from the previous day [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 597300 tons, a 0.76% increase from the previous week and a 10.86% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 1157200 tons, a 4.82% decrease from the previous week but a 5.09% increase year - on - year [12]. - As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils (soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil) in key domestic regions was 2204700 tons, a 5.16% decrease from the previous week but an 8.52% increase year - on - year [13]. - As of November 10, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 767077 tons, a decrease of 50337 tons from the previous week [13]. - The estimated production, import, and consumption of edible vegetable oil in China for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are provided [13]. - On November 10, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, while the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market decreased by 0.5% [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 64.1%, and Fed Governor Milan believes a 50 - basis - point cut in December is appropriate [16]. - The US Senate advanced a federal government temporary appropriation bill, which may end the 40 - day government shutdown, but its passage in the House is uncertain [16]. - The Eurozone's November Sentix Investor Confidence Index is - 7.4, lower than the expected - 4 [16]. Domestic News - On November 10, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0856, up 20 points (depreciation of the Chinese yuan) [18]. - On November 10, the People's Bank of China conducted 1199 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 416 billion yuan [18]. - The US will suspend the 301 investigation measures on China's shipbuilding and other industries for one year, which is a step towards implementing the Sino - US Kuala Lumpur economic and trade consultation consensus [18]. Fund Flows On November 10, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 18.119 billion yuan, including 9.752 billion yuan in commodity futures (592 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.372 billion yuan in chemical futures, - 227 million yuan in black - series futures, and 8.015 billion yuan in metal futures), 7.867 billion yuan in stock index futures, and 435 million yuan in Treasury bond futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy futures markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also provides forecasts on the supply and demand of key agricultural products such as palm oil and soybeans. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes are given for various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 01 is 4139.00 with a previous day's increase of 0.70% and an overnight decrease of 0.12% [1]. - Latest prices and percentage changes are provided for multiple currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. For instance, the US dollar index is at 100.20 with a 0.34% increase [1]. 现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil 2601, DCE豆油 2601, and DCE豆粕 2601 in different regions are presented. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8720 with a basis of 100 and no change in basis [3]. - CNF升贴水 and CNF报价 for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF升贴水 for Brazilian soybeans is 235 cents per bushel and the CNF报价 is 503 dollars per ton [5]. 重要基本面信息 - **产区天气**: Rainy weather has returned to central Brazil, which is beneficial for soybean crops. Different states in Brazil have different weather conditions and temperature trends [6]. - **国际供需** - MPOB月报前瞻: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to rise 3.5% to 2440000 tons in October, with production reaching 1940000 tons (up 5.6% from the previous month) and exports increasing 3.8% to 1480000 tons [8]. - StoneX: Reduced the US 2025 soybean yield forecast from 53.9 to 53.6 bushels per acre, and the production forecast to 4.303 billion bushels [8]. - S&P Global Commodity Insights: Predicted the 2025 US soybean average yield at 53.0 bushels per acre and production at 4.260 billion bushels [8]. - StoneX: Kept the forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean and summer corn harvests largely unchanged, with a 0.1% increase in the 2025/26 soybean production forecast [9]. - Imea: The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso state from October 27 - 31 was 502.44 Brazilian reals per ton [9]. - Deral: The soybean planting area in Parana state reached 79% of the expected area, with 93% of the evaluated area having good growth [9]. - EU: As of November 2, the 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports were 960000 tons, 3.81 million tons, 6.11 million tons, and 1.26 million tons respectively, all lower than the previous year [10][11]. - Kazakhstan: Exports of livestock feed meal in September 2025 reached a record high of 305000 tons, 2.5 times the previous year [11]. - Baltic Dry Index: Rose 13 points or 0.7% to 1958 points due to increased demand for Capesize vessels [11]. - **国内供需** - On November 4, soybean oil and palm oil total sales were 23200 tons, a 121% increase from the previous day [13]. - On November 4, the total soybean meal sales of major domestic oil mills were 70100 tons, a decrease of 34200 tons from the previous day. The national oil mill operating rate was 51.51%, a 2.37% decrease [13]. - As of November 4, the national soybean oil port inventory was 1199000 tons, a decrease of 35000 tons from October 28 [13]. - The average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork in China changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [13]. - On November 4, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased by 0.13 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index decreased by 0.16 points [14]. 宏观要闻 - **国际要闻** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.9% [17]. - The US Red Book commercial retail sales annual rate increased 5.7% in the week ending November 1 [17]. - The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill on November 4, and the government "shutdown" is set to become the longest in history [18]. - The US API crude oil inventory in the week ending October 31 was 6.521 million barrels [18]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the benchmark interest rate at 3.60% and is cautious about further easing [18]. - **国内要闻** - On November 4, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.0885, up 18 points [20]. - On November 4, the People's Bank of China conducted 117.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [20]. - On November 5, the People's Bank of China will conduct 700 billion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [20]. 资金流向 On November 4, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.329 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 9.065 billion yuan in commodity futures and 6.369 billion yuan in stock index futures, and a net inflow of 0.01 billion yuan in treasury bond futures [23]. 套利跟踪 No specific content is provided in the given report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the latest market information for agricultural products and energy commodities, including overnight and spot market prices, important fundamental data, macro - economic news, and capital flow trends. It also analyzes the supply - demand situation from both international and domestic perspectives. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are provided. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 01 (BMD) is 4132.00, with a previous day's decline of 2.14% and an overnight increase of 0.41% [1]. - Exchange rate information including the US dollar index, and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 99.86 with a 0.16% increase [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are presented. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 8770, with a basis of 100 and a basis change of 0 [3]. - CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different regions are shown. The CNF premium for US Gulf soybeans is 232 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 498 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - Regional Weather - US soybean - producing states' weather outlook from November 8 - 12 shows that temperatures will be near to above normal, and precipitation will be near or below the median. The Midwest may experience variable weather that could disrupt harvesting [6][8]. - Brazil is expected to have widespread precipitation this week, which is beneficial for crops [8]. - International Supply - Demand - In October 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.55% month - on - month, and exports increased by 26.54% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Indonesia's palm oil and refined palm oil exports in the first 9 months of 2025 increased by 11.62% year - on - year [9]. - The estimated US soybean harvest rate as of last Sunday is 91%, and the corn harvest rate is 83%. The US is expected to have a bumper harvest of both crops [10]. - As of November 1, Brazil's soybean sowing rate is 47.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average [11]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - On November 3, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 2600 tons (20%) compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also decreased [16]. - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventories of palm oil and soybean oil in key regions decreased compared to the previous week, while the port inventory of imported soybeans increased [16]. 04 Macroeconomic News - International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 67.3%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 32.7% [19]. - US manufacturing PMI data for October shows that the ISM manufacturing PMI is 48.7, lower than expected, while the S&P Global manufacturing PMI is 52.5, higher than the previous value [19]. - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in October is in line with expectations at 50 [19]. - Domestic News - On November 3, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the yuan appreciated) by 13 points [21]. - The Chinese central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2590 billion yuan [21]. 05 Capital Flow - On November 3, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.399 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.76 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 252 million yuan and bond futures had a net outflow of 88 million yuan [24]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil. It presents price, trading volume, and position data for these oils in both the futures and spot markets. Additionally, it includes macro and industry news that may impact the market, such as palm oil export data, Indonesia's palm oil reference price and export tax, USDA report schedules, and soybean crushing and inventory forecasts. Detailed Summary Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, Malaysian palm oil, and CBOT soybean oil futures all showed declines, with palm oil down 0.72% (day session) and 1.26% (night session), soybean oil down 0.49% (day session) and 0.44% (night session), and rapeseed oil down 1.12% (day session) and 1.19% (night session) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil and soybean oil trading volumes decreased, while rapeseed oil trading volume increased. Palm oil and soybean oil open interest increased, while rapeseed oil open interest decreased [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil spot prices decreased, while soybean oil spot prices remained unchanged [1]. - **Basis**: The basis for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the Guangdong and Guangxi regions are -64 yuan/ton, 372 yuan/ton, and 428 yuan/ton, respectively [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between rapeseed oil and palm oil, soybean oil and palm oil, and the 1 - 5 spreads for each oil all showed changes [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Exports**: AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 31 increased by 4.31% month - on - month to 1,501,945 tons, and ITS reported an increase of 5.19% to 1,639,089 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Policy**: Indonesia set the November reference price for crude palm oil at $963.75 per ton, slightly higher than October, with an unchanged export tax of $124 per ton and a 10% special tax [5]. - **USDA Reports**: Due to the government shutdown, the USDA's October reports were not released. The crop production report and global agricultural supply - demand forecast report are now scheduled for November 14 [5]. - **US Soybean Crushing and Inventory**: Analysts expect US soybean crushing in September to reach 6.163 million short tons (205.4 million bushels), a 10.1% increase from September 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory as of September 30 is 1.681 billion pounds, an 8.4% increase from September 2024 [6]. - **US Biodiesel Production**: US biodiesel production using soybean oil decreased to 1.041 billion pounds in August from 1.108 billion pounds in July [7]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Planting and Harvesting**: In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average. In Canada, the rapeseed harvesting progress in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Alberta is high, and the export volume in the week ending October 26 increased by 25.4% [7][8]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity for palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the soybean meal market, South American soybean sowing will fully commence in November, with potential weather - related speculation. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, but the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. US soybean prices depend on export improvement and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. Domestic soybean meal supply may decline in November, and inventory may decrease steadily, boosting the basis. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases after the Sino - US talks are crucial for the soybean meal market [2][58][133]. - In the oil market, the US soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors such as cost, oil - meal arbitrage, industrial consumption, and bio - diesel policies, remaining range - bound. In November, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, and Malaysia's high palm oil inventory pressure may ease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low, but the B50 bio - diesel policy is still unclear. The domestic oil market faces an oversupply situation, with inventory likely to increase steadily. However, there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound in November [3][131][134]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, influenced by factors such as the USDA quarterly inventory report, Sino - US trade relations, and the NOPA report. Domestic soybean meal markets fluctuated lower due to reduced supply concerns and weak terminal demand. International oils were range - bound, with US soybean oil showing weakness and Malaysian palm oil being relatively strong [7][8]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Sowing - As of October 16, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the previous week and last year but lower than two years ago. With increased rainfall, the sowing progress has accelerated significantly. In November, Brazilian soybean sowing will fully start, with potential weather - related speculation in the northeast and south. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. If US soybean exports improve, Brazilian soybean premiums may decline [13][18][23]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Demand - The US government shutdown has affected the release of USDA reports. As of October 21, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. US soybean exports are far lower than last year, and the possibility of a significant reduction in exports is high. Mississippi River transportation bottlenecks and uncertain bio - diesel policies also affect US soybean demand. If the USDA report is released in November, US soybean yield and exports are expected to be adjusted downward, and inventory may increase [24][29][42]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - As of October 21, the procurement of imported soybeans for different shipping dates showed different progress, with relatively limited procurement in December and January. Domestic soybean inventory is currently abundant but may start to decline in December. Domestic oil mills' operating rates may remain high in November but may decline compared to the previous period. Domestic soybean meal demand has increased slightly in 2025, but the decline in pig prices may affect demand. Domestic soybean meal inventory may decline steadily in November, and the basis may stop falling and rise slightly. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases are crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [44][49][58]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - Since mid - October, US soybean oil has declined from its high due to the unwinding of oil - meal arbitrage. In November, the oil - meal ratio may decline. The US biodiesel policy has not been finalized, and the market's demand expectations for US soybean oil have decreased. In November, US soybean oil will be affected by multiple factors and will continue to fluctuate within a range [60][62][67]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil production reduction cycle will start in November. In October, production increased, but exports faced resistance. Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy is still uncertain, which will affect the Malaysian palm oil market. Malaysian palm oil inventory may start to decline in November, and there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound [74][82][91]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In November, domestic oil demand is expected to decline steadily due to the delayed Spring Festival. Supply may decrease after November but still exceeds demand, and inventory may continue to increase. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Palm oil inventory may increase, and the basis may be under pressure. Rapeseed oil supply may increase in November but is subject to policy risks. The current inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil may continue, and the oil - meal ratio may be adjusted in the short term [94][99][131]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - For soybean meal, maintain an interval - oscillation mindset, focusing on low - buying and high - selling. For oils, try to buy at the lower limit of the range or buy on dips after the market stabilizes in November [135].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Limited drivers from production areas, continue to hold reverse spreads [1] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation, pay attention to China-US economic and trade relations [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,322 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.09%, closing price (night session) was 9,322 yuan/ton with no change; trading volume was 448,936 hands with a decrease of 77,751 hands, and open interest was 353,041 hands with an increase of 2,263 hands [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 8,252 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.15%, closing price (night session) was 8,234 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.22%; trading volume was 206,030 hands with a decrease of 52,905 hands, and open interest was 497,389 hands with an increase of 3,429 hands [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) was 9,932 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%, closing price (night session) was 9,922 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.10%; trading volume was 203,023 hands with a decrease of 19,449 hands, and open interest was 296,642 hands with a decrease of 3,196 hands [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price was 4,474 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.31%, closing price (night session) was 4,480 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.07% [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price was 50.83 cents/pound with an increase of 0.51% [2] 3.1.2 Spot - Palm oil (24 degrees, Guangdong): Spot price was 9,200 yuan/ton with a decrease of 80 yuan/ton [2] - Grade 1 soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price was 8,590 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Grade 4 imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price was 10,150 yuan/ton with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB (continuous contract): Spot price was 1,105 dollars/ton with a decrease of 5 dollars/ton [2] 3.1.3 Basis - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis was -122 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis was 338 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis was 218 yuan/ton [2] 3.1.4 Spread - Rapeseed oil - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread was 610 yuan/ton, compared with 629 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Soybean oil - palm oil futures主力 spread: The spread was -1,070 yuan/ton, compared with -1,090 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 84 yuan/ton, compared with 108 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 202 yuan/ton, compared with 222 yuan/ton two days ago [2] - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The spread was 428 yuan/ton, compared with 495 yuan/ton two days ago [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - According to shipping survey agency ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 862,724 tons, a 16.2% increase compared to the same period last month [3] - Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil (CPO) from the current 10% to 15% to fund the transition from the B40 to the B50 biodiesel program. The tax increase plan is still under discussion among ministries [4][5] - Brazil's Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) expects Brazil's soybean production this year to be 165.866 million tons, a 14.4% increase compared to last year's 144.947 million tons [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2 (integers). The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 indicates the most bearish and 2 indicates the most bullish [6]

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong among varieties due to the early B50 road test. - Soybean oil is likely to fluctuate with US soybeans and is difficult to reach new highs [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil: The daytime closing price was 9,570 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 3.71%, and the night - session closing price was 9,596 yuan/ton with a 0.27% increase. Trading volume was 509,596 lots, up 110,994 lots, and open interest was 379,054 lots, up 46,907 lots [2]. - Soybean oil: The daytime closing price was 8,332 yuan/ton with a 2.36% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,374 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase. Trading volume was 336,990 lots, up 136,756 lots, and open interest was 506,255 lots, down 8,109 lots [2]. - Rapeseed oil: The daytime closing price was 10,248 yuan/ton with a 2.03% increase, and the night - session closing price was 10,197 yuan/ton with a - 0.50% decrease. Trading volume was 209,869 lots, up 28,319 lots, and open interest was 329,150 lots, up 25,710 lots [2]. - Malaysian palm oil: The closing price was 4,594 ringgit/ton with a 1.06% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4,595 ringgit/ton with a 0.09% increase [2]. - CBOT soybean oil: The closing price was 50.97 cents/pound with a - 0.99% decrease [2]. - **Spot Data** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The spot price was 9,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [2]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The spot price was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton [2]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The spot price was 10,450 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton [2]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: The spot price was 1,120 dollars/ton, up 30 dollars/ton [2]. - **Basis Data** - Palm oil (Guangdong): The basis was - 110 yuan/ton [2]. - Soybean oil (Guangdong): The basis was 348 yuan/ton [2]. - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The basis was 202 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spread Data** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was 678 yuan/ton, compared with 816 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean - palm oil futures spread: The previous trading day's spread was - 1,238 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,088 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Palm oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 210 yuan/ton, compared with 192 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Soybean oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 258 yuan/ton, compared with 244 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. - Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread: The previous trading day's spread was 519 yuan/ton, compared with 523 yuan/ton two trading days ago [2]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a mandatory B50 biodiesel program starting in the second half of 2026, which will eliminate the need for diesel imports [3]. - The B50 biodiesel program in Indonesia in 2026 will generate an additional demand for 530,000 tons of crude palm oil [4]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 0 - Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6].