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棕榈油:b30消息刺激,短期偏强表现,豆油:播种面积不及预期,豆系情绪提振
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation [1] - Soybean oil is boosted by the sentiment of the soybean sector as the sown area is lower than expected [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,866 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.64%, and (night session) is 10,094 yuan/ton with an increase of 2.31%. Trading volume is 587,524 lots with an increase of 86,323 lots, and open interest is 245,751 lots with a decrease of 34,398 lots [2] - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,668 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.53%, and (night session) is 8,768 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.15%. Trading volume is 272,706 lots with a decrease of 25,494 lots, and open interest is 464,075 lots with a decrease of 34,825 lots [2] - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,884 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%, and (night session) is 9,951 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.68%. Trading volume is 201,426 lots with a decrease of 6,379 lots, and open interest is 195,830 lots with a decrease of 3,815 lots [2] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,829 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.19% (day session), and 4,903 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.55% (night session) [2] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 68.97 cents/pound with an increase of 0.73% [2] - **Spot Price Data**: - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,930 yuan/ton with an increase of 150 yuan/ton [2] - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 9,150 yuan/ton with an increase of 130 yuan/ton [2] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 10,220 yuan/ton with an increase of 70 yuan/ton [2] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price (continuous contract): Spot price is 1,215 dollars/ton with an increase of 25 dollars/ton [2] - **Basis Data**: - Palm oil (Guangdong): Basis is 64 yuan/ton [2] - Soybean oil (Guangdong): Basis is 482 yuan/ton [2] - Rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Basis is 336 yuan/ton [2] - **Spread Data**: - Rapeseed - palm oil futures main contract spread: 18 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 39 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean - palm oil futures main contract spread: - 1,198 yuan/ton (previous trading day), - 1,216 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Palm oil 5 - 9 spread: - 22 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 30 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] - Soybean oil 5 - 9 spread: 40 yuan/ton (both previous trading day and two trading days ago) [2] - Rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread: 93 yuan/ton (previous trading day), 98 yuan/ton (two trading days ago) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia will implement a fuel procurement rationing system starting from July 1, 2026, and will implement the B50 biofuel policy [3] - The 2026 US soybean planting area is 84.7 million acres, lower than the Reuters' expectation of 85.549 million acres; the US corn planting area is 95.338 million acres, higher than the Reuters' expectation of 94.371 million acres [4][5] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of US old - crop soybeans is 2.1 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The farm inventory is 900 million bushels, a year - on - year increase of 3%; the non - farm inventory is 1.2 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 16%. The soybean consumption from December 2025 to February 2026 is 1.18 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1% [5] - Analysts predict that the US soybean processors' soybean crushing volume in February 2026 may reach 6.43 million short tons (214.3 million bushels). If the average prediction of eight analysts is accurate, the crushing volume in that month will decrease by 5.9% compared with January and increase by 13.1% compared with February 2025. The average daily crushing volume in February will reach 7.654 million bushels, a record high. As of February 28, 2026, the US soybean oil inventory is expected to be 2.626 billion pounds, an 8.0% increase from the end of January and a 36.5% increase from the end of February 2025 [6] - As of the week of March 27, 2026, the US soybean crushing profit is 4.35 dollars/bushel, a 5.8% increase from the previous week, reaching the highest level since the week of October 27, 2023. The average crushing profit in 2025 is 2.46 dollars/bushel, higher than 2.44 dollars/bushel in 2024. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price of soybean processing plants in Illinois is 332.10 dollars/short ton, equivalent to 7.72 dollars/bushel. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Iowa is 67.35 cents/pound, equivalent to 7.95 dollars/bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans is 11.56 dollars/bushel, up from 11.49 dollars/bushel a week ago [7] - Brazil's soybean export volume in March 2026 is estimated to be 15.86 million tons, slightly lower than last week's forecast of 15.87 million tons; the soybean meal export volume is estimated to be 2.24 million tons, lower than last week's forecast of 2.44 million tons [7] - In February 2026, Canada's rapeseed crushing volume is 951,353 tons, a 9.69% decrease from the previous month and a 7.79% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed oil production is 408,564 tons, a 9.04% decrease from the previous month and a 9.41% increase from the same period last year. The rapeseed meal production is 548,424 tons, an 11.3% decrease from the previous month and a 5.75% increase from the same period last year. The cumulative rapeseed crushing volume in the 2025/26 season is 7.06655 million tons, the rapeseed oil production is 2.999801 million tons, and the rapeseed meal production is 4.131511 million tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity: 1; Soybean oil trend intensity: 0 [9]
棕榈油:b30消息刺激,短期偏强表现,豆油:关注季度库存与种植意向报告
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 02:04
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil shows a short - term strong performance due to B50 news stimulation; for soybean oil, attention should be paid to the quarterly inventory and planting intention report [1] - Indonesia will officially promote the B50 biodiesel blending policy plan this year, which was previously put on hold due to technical and financial concerns but is being discussed for restart due to global energy supply disruptions [3][5] - The US EPA has finalized the 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) annual obligation volumes (RVOs), with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil主力 had a daily - session closing price with a 1.66% increase and a night - session closing price with a 0.75% increase; soybean oil主力 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session increase of 0.46%; rapeseed oil主力 had a daily - session increase of 0.14% and a night - session increase of 0.13%. The Malaysian palm oil主力 increased by 3.07% in the daily session and 0.59% in the night session, and CBOT soybean oil主力 increased by 1.47% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For palm oil主力, the trading volume was 501,201 lots with a change of 153,036, and the open interest was 280,149 lots with a decrease of 8,265; for soybean oil主力, the trading volume was 298,200 lots with a change of 96,747, and the open interest was 498,900 lots with a decrease of 38,768; for rapeseed oil主力, the trading volume was 207,805 lots with a change of 60,479, and the open interest was 199,645 lots with a decrease of 13,357 [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton with a price change of 130 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no price change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no price change; the FOB offshore price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,190 US dollars/ton with a price change of 5 US dollars/ton [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 150 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 306 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 259 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The futures price spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was - 39 yuan/ton; the futures price spread between soybean oil and palm oil was - 1,216 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 30 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 40 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 98 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from March 1 - 20 was estimated to increase by 0.92%, with a decrease of 3.61% in the Malay Peninsula, an increase of 5.59% in Sabah, an increase of 9.87% in Sarawak, and an increase of 6.67% in East Malaysia [2] - The US EPA finalized the 2026 and 2027 RFS annual obligation volumes, with the traditional biofuel production target remaining at 15 billion gallons, and the blending volume of biomass - based diesel increasing by nearly 60% to between 5 and 5.7 billion gallons per year [6] - As of March 28, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 74.3%, compared with 67.7% last week, 81.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 72.4% [7] - Iran plans to implement stricter access and toll systems for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz [7] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [8]
棕榈油:油价扰动持续,高位震荡运行;豆油:豆系驱动不大,RVO利多出尽表现
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 03:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil prices are continuously affected by oil price fluctuations and are operating in a high - level volatile range; soybean oil shows a situation where the driving force of the soybean series is not significant, and the positive effects of RVO have been fully realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,768 yuan/ton with a 1.60% increase, and night - session was 9,692 yuan/ton with a - 0.78% decrease; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,688 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase, and night - session was 8,648 yuan/ton with a - 0.46% decrease; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price was 9,877 yuan/ton with a 0.38% increase, and night - session was 9,762 yuan/ton with a - 1.16% decrease. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil was 4,630 ringgit/ton with a 1.03% increase, and CBOT soybean oil was 67.22 cents/pound with a - 1.18% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 348,165 lots with an increase of 26,169 lots, and open interest was 288,414 lots with an increase of 8,470 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 201,453 lots with an increase of 15,480 lots, and open interest was 537,668 lots with a decrease of 7,724 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 147,326 lots with a decrease of 14,319 lots, and open interest was 213,002 lots with a decrease of 5,414 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,020 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,150 yuan/ton with no change; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,185 dollars/ton with a 10 - unit increase [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 118 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 332 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 273 yuan/ton. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 109 yuan/ton (previously 226 yuan/ton), the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,080 yuan/ton (previously - 968 yuan/ton), the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 44 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 97 yuan/ton (previously 102 yuan/ton) [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The EPA has finalized the renewable fuel blending obligations for 2026 and 2027, which are the highest in the program's history. The total renewable fuel obligation in 2026 is 25.82 billion RINs, and in 2027 is 25.98 billion RINs [3] - Malaysia, a major palm oil exporter, is taking measures to ensure fertilizer supply due to the increase in fertilizer prices and domestic supply shortage caused by the Middle East conflict [4] - The Rural Economics Institute of Paraná, Brazil (Deral) expects the soybean crop yield in the state in the 2025/26 season to be 21.89 million tons, lower than the February estimate of 22.12 million tons [4] - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 13th week of 2026 (March 21 - 27) was 1.8352 million tons, 0.1553 million tons less than the previous week and 0.1021 million tons lower than the estimated volume, with an actual startup rate of 50.53% [4] - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched a devastating drone attack on Israeli military support bases, military transportation centers, and military force assembly areas at Ben - Gurion Airport, which is expected to threaten Israel's supply lines and affect its offensive combat capabilities [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [6]
棕榈油:油价扰动持续,高位震荡运行,豆油:豆系驱动不大,上方空间有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 02:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are affected by oil price fluctuations and are expected to fluctuate at a high level; the upward space of soybean oil is limited due to weak drivers from the soybean sector [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 9,942 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.31%, and the night - session price was 9,588 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3.56%. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 8,740 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.30%, and the night - session price was 8,588 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.74%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,950 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.75%, and the night - session price was 9,770 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1.81%. The price of CBOT soybean oil futures was 65.71 cents/pound with an increase of 0.31% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 465,152 lots, an increase of 57,742 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 317,752 lots, a decrease of 1,698 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 270,684 lots, an increase of 44,960 lots, and the open interest was 612,272 lots, an increase of 18,176 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 224,994 lots, an increase of 23,990 lots, and the open interest was 239,709 lots, an increase of 2,276 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,920 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,215 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was - 22 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 300 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 270 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spread**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 8 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,202 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 54 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 74 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 119 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - As of last Thursday, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 68%, 7 percentage points higher than the previous week but lagging behind 80% in the same period last year [2] - In the first three weeks of March, Brazil exported 9,501,524.99 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 633,435.00 tons, a 18% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in March last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5]
棕榈油:高位易有恐慌,防范回调风险;豆油:豆系驱动有限,关注中美磋商进程
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 02:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is prone to panic at high levels, and investors should guard against callback risks [1] - The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the progress of China-US consultations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,796 yuan/ton during the day session with a 1.07% increase and 9,738 yuan/ton at night with a -0.59% decrease; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,616 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.89% increase and 8,584 yuan/ton at night with a -0.37% decrease; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,854 yuan/ton during the day session with a 0.76% increase and 9,865 yuan/ton at night with a 0.11% increase; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,612 ringgit/ton with a 1.77% increase; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.23 cents/pound with a -0.46% decrease [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 491,200 lots with a decrease of 90,211 lots and an open interest of 331,096 lots with a decrease of 1,763 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 251,021 lots with a decrease of 29,647 lots and an open interest of 594,494 lots with an increase of 9,710 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 192,755 lots with a decrease of 5,077 lots and an open interest of 234,514 lots with an increase of 5,030 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 degrees) in Guangdong was priced at 9,870 yuan/ton with a 10 yuan increase; first-grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,990 yuan/ton with a 40 yuan increase; fourth-grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,230 yuan/ton with a 110 yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,200 US dollars/ton with a 10 US dollars decrease [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 74 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 374 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 376 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 58 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was -1,180 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 86 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 146 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 - 20, 2026, were 1,166,586 tons, a 49.6% increase compared to the same period last month [3] - SPPOMA data showed that from March 1 - 15, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 2.96% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.44% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 5.28% month - on - month [4][5] - A study showed that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 51 million tons, with an estimated range of 46 - 56 million tons, a decrease of less than 1% from the previous estimate; Thailand's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 3.82 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.32 - 4.32 million tons; Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 19.6 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 19.1 - 20.1 million tons [5] - Abiove expects Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons; Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 177.85 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons [5] - The IGC's latest monthly report shows that the global soybean production in the 2026/27 season is expected to increase by 16 million tons year - on - year to 442 million tons, the trade volume to increase by 3 million tons to 190 million tons, the consumption to increase by 12 million tons to 442 million tons, and the ending stocks to increase by 1 million tons to 79 million tons [5] - A farmer survey by Allendale Inc showed that US farmers plan to reduce the corn planting area by 5.2% year - on - year in 2026 and expand the soybean planting area by 5.5% [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is -1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is -1 [7]
豆油:豆系驱动有限,关注中美磋商进程:棕榈油:地缘冲突持续,短期偏强基因仍在
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-19 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict continues, and palm oil still has a short - term strong tendency. The driving force of the soybean system for soybean oil is limited, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of palm oil futures (day session) was 9,692 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.63%, and the night - session closing price was 9,844 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.57%. The closing price of soybean oil futures (day session) was 8,540 yuan/ton with a decline of 1.20%, and the night - session closing price was 8,630 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.05%. The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (day session) was 9,780 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 9,902 yuan/ton with an increase of 1.25%. The closing price of Malaysian palm oil futures (day session) was 4,532 ringgit/ton with a decline of 1.11%, and the night - session closing price was 4,592 ringgit/ton with an increase of 1.41%. The closing price of CBOT soybean oil futures was 65.50 cents/pound with a decline of 0.71% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of palm oil futures was 581,411 lots, an increase of 14,670 lots, and the open interest was 332,859 lots, a decrease of 27,367 lots. The trading volume of soybean oil futures was 280,668 lots, a decrease of 29,528 lots, and the open interest was 584,784 lots, a decrease of 19,737 lots. The trading volume of rapeseed oil futures was 197,832 lots, a decrease of 6,077 lots, and the open interest was 229,484 lots, a decrease of 4,185 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,860 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, with no change. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,210 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 168 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 410 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 88 yuan/ton, compared with - 121 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 1,152 yuan/ton, compared with - 1,310 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 84 yuan/ton, compared with 144 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 88 yuan/ton, compared with 98 yuan/ton two trading days ago. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 141 yuan/ton, compared with 134 yuan/ton two trading days ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Trump administration temporarily waived the century - old shipping mandate, the Jones Act, to reduce the transportation costs of oil, natural gas, and other commodities in the United States [2]. - S&P Global Energy reported that it expects US farmers to plant 95.2 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans in 2026. The corn planting area forecast was raised from 95 million acres in January to 95.2 million acres. In 2025, US farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn. The expected soybean planting area in 2026 is higher than the 84.5 million acres forecast in January and the 81.2 million acres sown in 2025 [3][4]. - Due to a significant reduction in Argentina's crushing volume and a decline in US exports, the global soybean oil export volume in February dropped significantly to 569,000 tons, but Brazil's export volume increased [4]. - The crisis in the Middle East has caused fluctuations in the edible oil market. The retail prices of palm oil and soybean oil at the consumer level in Bangladesh are higher than the maximum retail prices set by the government [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 0, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is 0 [5].
棕榈油:炒作题材频发,短期偏强基因仍在;豆油:豆系驱动有限,关注中美磋商进程
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Palm oil has frequent speculation themes and still has a short - term strong gene; soybean oil has limited drivers from the soybean system, and attention should be paid to the Sino - US consultation process [1] - The price outlook of edible oil remains unclear as weak import demand offsets the optimistic expectations of the biodiesel industry [4] 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,954 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.56% change and 9,876 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.78% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,644 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 0.83% change and 8,622 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.25% change; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,833 yuan/ton (day session) with a - 1.16% change and 9,814 yuan/ton (night session) with a - 0.19% change; Malaysian palm oil主力 closed at 4,583 ringgit/ton (day session) with a - 1.72% change and 4,591 ringgit/ton (night session) with a 0.22% change; CBOT soybean oil主力 closed at 65.89 cents/pound with a 3.05% change [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 566,741 lots with a change of - 251,773 lots and an open interest of 360,226 lots with a change of 560 lots; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 310,196 lots with a change of - 53,950 lots and an open interest of 604,521 lots with a change of - 22,619 lots; rapeseed oil主力 had a trading volume of 203,909 lots with a change of - 27,343 lots and an open interest of 233,669 lots with a change of - 11,060 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was priced at 9,960 yuan/ton with a - 80 yuan change; first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was priced at 8,950 yuan/ton with a - 110 yuan change; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was priced at 10,150 yuan/ton with a - 140 yuan change; Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price was 1,220 dollars/ton with a 25 dollars change [1] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 6 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) had a basis of 306 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) had a basis of 317 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 121 yuan/ton (previous trading day) compared to - 62 yuan/ton (two trading days ago); the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 1,310 yuan/ton compared to - 1,294 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 144 yuan/ton compared to 152 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 98 yuan/ton compared to 64 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 134 yuan/ton compared to 119 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News - International companies suspended some Brazilian soybean exports last week, and the slow progress of Brazilian soybean harvesting has led to concerns about the tightening of imported soybean supply in China from March to April, resulting in a significant increase in soybean meal trading volume [2] - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 15 was 443,812 tons, a 12.68% increase compared to the same period last month [3][4] - US President Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to an "agricultural celebration" at the White House on March 27. The US Environmental Protection Agency has submitted the draft biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027 to the White House, and the final regulations are expected to be released by the end of March [4] - From July 2025 to early March 2026, EU's palm oil imports decreased significantly compared to the same period last year, reflecting a general decline in EU internal consumption. The German Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Plants (UFOP) attributes this to the exclusion of palm - based biofuels from the calculation for meeting national quota obligations, which is planned to be implemented in 2030 and has been partially implemented by some member states. However, UFOP warns that the import of palm oil mill effluent (POME) may undermine this regulation. The total EU palm oil imports from July 1, 2025, to March 3, 2026, were about 1.9 million tons, lower than nearly 2 million tons in the same period last year [5] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [6]
棕榈油:RVO公布在即,油脂偏强运行;豆油:美豆成本支撑,短期高位震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 01:59
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is expected to be strongly influenced by the upcoming RVO announcement and is likely to run strongly. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's closing price in the day session was 9,526 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and 9,612 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's closing price in the day session was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and 8,588 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.21% increase. Rapeseed oil's closing price in the day session was 9,778 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase, and 9,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.29% decrease. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,499 ringgit/ton with a 1.60% increase, and 4,526 ringgit/ton with a 0.60% increase. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 67.18 cents/pound with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 507,766 lots with a decrease of 374,636 lots, and open interest was 339,375 lots with an increase of 1,068 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume was 396,105 lots with a decrease of 108,399 lots, and open interest was 617,170 lots with an increase of 5,771 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 227,366 lots with a decrease of 60,687 lots, and open interest was 253,670 lots with a decrease of 4,128 lots [2] - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,530 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,210 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,165 dollars/ton with a 30 - dollar decrease [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 4 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 380 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 432 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 252 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 956 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 56 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 114 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 117 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang pointed out that due to the expected increase in exports offsetting the rise in production, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March 2026 may decrease by 8% month - on - month to 2.48 million tons. If the Middle East conflict continues, palm oil prices still have room to rise [3] - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and production increased by 1.55% month - on - month [5] - The IEA will provide 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to the market due to the significant and rising risks in the oil market caused by the Middle East situation [5] - The GAPKI said that new palm oil export orders have slowed down due to the increase in logistics and insurance costs caused by the Middle East conflict [5] - The BCR maintained its estimates of soybean and corn production in Argentina as the widespread rainfall in February helped stabilize the crop conditions in major planting areas [5] - Soybean harvesting in Brazil's Paraná state is in full swing. Dry weather has facilitated the harvesting work, but irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations during the growing season have affected the crops. Drought has caused water shortages in some areas, and recent rainfall has interrupted field operations in other areas [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 1 [6]
棕榈油:高位波动加剧,关注原油影响;豆油:美豆成本支撑,短期或有回调
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 02:12
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of palm oil is experiencing heightened volatility at high levels, and attention should be paid to the impact of crude oil [1]. - Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans, and there may be a short - term correction [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Fluctuations**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,720 yuan/ton with a 5.45% increase, and a night - closing price of 9,742 yuan/ton with a 0.23% - 0.18% change; soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,672 yuan/ton with a 3.09% increase, and a night - closing price of 8,656 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,954 yuan/ton with a 2.98% increase, and a night - closing price of 9,952 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change. The main contract of Malaysian palm oil had a closing price of 4,570 ringgit/ton with a 4.70% increase and a night - closing price of 4,574 ringgit/ton with a 0.15% increase. The main contract of CBOT soybean oil had a closing price of 66.07 cents/pound with a - 0.77% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's main contract had a trading volume of 892,943 lots with a change of 363,533 lots, and an open interest of 385,075 lots with a change of 9,545 lots; soybean oil's main contract had a trading volume of 936,143 lots with a change of 585,844 lots, and an open interest of 656,575 lots with a change of - 12,368 lots; rapeseed oil's main contract had a trading volume of 362,000 lots with a change of 133,709 lots, and an open interest of 273,150 lots with a change of - 19,239 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices and Changes**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,830 yuan/ton with a change of 630 yuan/ton; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 9,350 yuan/ton with a change of 500 yuan/ton; the spot price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,610 yuan/ton with a change of 460 yuan/ton; the FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,135 US dollars/ton with a change of 35 US dollars/ton [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 110 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 678 yuan/ton; the basis of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 656 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil's main futures contracts was 234 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil's main futures contracts was - 1,048 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 88 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 72 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 122 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US President Trump stated that the US military action against Iran would end "soon", and the overnight crude oil price dropped significantly. He also mentioned that he knew in advance that oil and gas prices would rise, and the increase was lower than his expectation. He was "disappointed" with the new leader of Iran and threatened to strike harder if Iran disrupted oil supply, and would lift some sanctions to lower oil prices [3]. - Indonesia may resume the plan to launch mandatory B50 - grade palm - based biodiesel in the middle of this year due to the soaring crude oil price caused by the Middle - East conflict, but no decision has been made yet [5]. - Thailand will increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 5% to 7% starting from March 14 to reduce diesel use [6]. - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had harvested 51% of the 2025/26 soybean crop, 12 percentage points higher than the previous week but still lower than the 61% of the same period last year. The current progress is the slowest since the 2020/21 season [6]. - According to CONAB, as of March 7, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 50.6%, up from 41.7% last week, compared with 60.9% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 48.5% [6]. - After the timely rainfall in February, the crop conditions in Argentina stabilized, and the estimated soybean production for the 2025 - 26 season remained at 48 million tons [6]. - The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) raised the estimated soybean production for the 2025 - 26 season due to the higher yield in major producing states [7]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle - East, the soybean exports from Brazil and the US may decline in the next few weeks [7]. - In 2025, Iran imported 1.4 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a 25.3% year - on - year decrease, and Brazil exported 675,091 tons of soybeans to Iraq, an 11.7% year - on - year increase [7]. - Brazil is expected to export 17.249 million tons of soybeans in March, more than the estimated amount of the same period last year. The initial estimate of the shipment volume in April 2026 is 2.127 million tons. The cumulative estimated shipment volume from January to April 2026 is 30.695 million tons, while Brazil exported 22.155 million tons of soybeans from January to March 2025 [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is - 1, and the trend intensity of soybean oil is - 1 [9].
棕榈油:能源外溢终至,或有破万表现;豆油:美豆成本支撑,短期偏强突破
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 02:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Palm oil may exceed 10,000 due to energy spill - over; soybean oil is supported by US soybean cost and is expected to break through in the short - term [1] Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,218 yuan/ton with a 1.63% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,454 yuan/ton with a 2.56% increase; soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,412 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,514 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil's day - session closing price was 9,666 yuan/ton with a 1.87% increase, and night - session closing price was 9,814 yuan/ton with a 1.53% increase. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,365 ringgit/ton with a 3.76% increase, and CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 66.47 cents/pound with a 1.17% increase [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume was 529,410 lots with an increase of 12,935 lots, and open interest was 375,530 lots with an increase of 10,859 lots; soybean oil's trading volume was 350,299 lots with an increase of 75,028 lots, and open interest was 668,943 lots with an increase of 9,088 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume was 228,291 lots with an increase of 60,410 lots, and open interest was 292,389 lots with an increase of 13,493 lots [2] - **Spot Prices**: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,200 yuan/ton with a 200 - yuan increase; first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,850 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi) was 10,150 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; Malaysian palm oil FOB price was 1,100 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [2] - **Basis**: Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 18 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 438 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was 484 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread was 448 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread was - 806 yuan/ton; palm oil 5 - 9 spread was 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 5 - 9 spread was 48 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 5 - 9 spread was 105 yuan/ton [2] Macro and Industry News - On March 10, Malaysia's March 1 - 10 ITS, Amspec, SGS palm oil export volume data will be released; at 12:30 on March 10, the February MPOB Malaysia palm oil supply - demand report will be released; at 00:00 on March 11, the USDA supply - demand report will be released [3] Crop Insurance Prices - The 2026 federal crop insurance spring prices for corn, soybeans, and spring wheat have been finalized. Corn price is $4.62 per bushel, a decrease of 8 cents from the previous year; soybean price is $11.09 per bushel, a 55% increase from 2025; spring wheat price is $6.19 per bushel, a decrease of 36 cents year - on - year [5] Soybean Harvest Progress - As of the week of March 6, the soybean harvest progress in Mato Grosso state for the 2025/26 season has reached 89.15% of the sown area, exceeding the five - year average of 81.99%. The single - week harvest progress advanced 10.81 percentage points [5] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 2; soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [6]