可持续棕榈油(MSPO)认证体系
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棕榈油周报:洪灾引发供应担忧,棕榈油V型反弹-20251201
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-01 02:00
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 46 to close at 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; palm oil 01 contract rose 76 to close at 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; soybean oil 01 contract rose 54 to close at 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.66%; rapeseed oil 01 contract fell 59 to close at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.6%; CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.47 to close at 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90%; ICE canola active contract rose 9.9 to close at 651.7 Canadian dollars/ton, up 1.54% [4][7] - Palm oil prices first declined and then rebounded in a V - shape during the week. The decline was due to weak export demand and strengthened inventory accumulation expectations, with expected inventory increase in November. The rise was due to floods in Southeast Asia affecting palm oil harvesting and transportation, which may lead to reduced production, combined with the seasonal production - reduction season [4][7] - Macroscopically, waiting for the release of US PCE data to guide the December interest - rate cut, paying attention to the US - Russia talks this week, and international oil prices fluctuating weakly. Fundamentally, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to continue to increase at the end of November with inventory pressure, but recent floods in Southeast Asia have affected supply, and the palm oil market rebounded in a V - shape. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [4][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main contract rose from 50.61 cents/pound to 52.08 cents/pound, up 2.90%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 4,068 ringgit/ton to 4,114 ringgit/ton, up 1.13%; DCE palm oil rose from 8,550 yuan/ton to 8,626 yuan/ton, up 0.89%; DCE soybean oil rose from 8,190 yuan/ton to 8,244 yuan/ton, up 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil fell from 9,816 yuan/ton to 9,757 yuan/ton, down 0.6% [5] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose from 8,470 yuan/ton to 8,570 yuan/ton, up 1.18%; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose from 8,350 yuan/ton to 8,450 yuan/ton, up 1.20%; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu fell from 10,170 yuan/ton to 10,110 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 22 yuan/ton to - 382 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 135 yuan/ton to 1,131 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Production: From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 5.49% month - on - month, fresh fruit bunch yield increased by 3.34%, and oil extraction rate increased by 0.41%. From November 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian crude palm oil production increased by 3.24% compared with the same period last month [8] - Exports: From November 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 18.8% (ITS data), 16.4% (AmSpec data), and 40.77% (SGS data) compared with the same period last month. Indonesia exported 2.2 million tons of palm oil in September 2025, lower than 2.26 million tons in the same period last year [8][9] - Inventory: As of the week of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.224 million tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week and 0.253 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1799 million tons, an increase of 0.0314 million tons from last week and 0.114 million tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 0.6671 million tons, an increase of 0.0139 million tons from last week and 0.1592 million tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 0.377 million tons, a decrease of 0.0443 million tons from last week and 0.0202 million tons from the same period last year [9] - Trading volume: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 15,080 tons, down from 21,180 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,720 tons, up from 1,600 tons in the previous week [9] 3. Industry News - Malaysia's use of palm - derived raw materials to produce sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has no negative perception risk from European buyers, and the country plans to implement a 1% SAF mandatory blending standard for international flights departing from Kuala Lumpur International Airport [11] - From January to October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to China decreased by about 29% year - on - year, indicating challenges in competitiveness, logistics, pricing dynamics, and market positioning [11] - Continuous heavy rain in Sumatra, Indonesia, has caused floods and landslides, resulting in 52 deaths as of November 27, 2025 [11] 4. Related Charts - The report includes 22 charts showing the price trends, spreads, production, exports, inventory, etc., of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and their related products in Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as the commercial inventory and trading volume of domestic three major oils [12 - 50]