2026年01月05日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周三白银 COMEX 提保，压制金属整体价格。中国 PMI 超预期。美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，市场担忧 | | | | 铜 | 南美铜供应问题。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。需求端，铜价调整后贴水缩小。精废价差 3400 元附近。 | | | | | 交易策略：逢低做多。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周三电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.60%，收于 22925 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-370 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 3021 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境延续积极态势，LME 铝价突破 3000 美元/吨形成强劲外部带动，不过国内库存仍在持续 | | | | ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-12-30 原料补库预期，钢价震荡运行 钢材：原料补库预期，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3130元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3287元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 上午涨价过程中低价拿货好转，投机情绪增加，午后盘面回落，成交转弱，但依然挺价为主，全天基差先缩后扩。 全国建材成交11.77万吨。 供需与逻辑：建材供需基本面暂无矛盾，保持低产量，低消费，低库存状态。板材依旧受制于高库存压制，价格 边际波动有限，短期市场原料补库预期开启，建材基本面矛盾不足，关注环保及季节性减产情况、需求去库变化、 利润状况、成本支撑、原料补库、钢材出口及国内政策。 宏观政策、成材产销情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪缓解，矿价小幅上涨 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡运行，最终铁矿石2605合约收盘796.5元/吨；现货方面，报价整体小幅上涨、 成交一般，贸易商报盘积极性一般，钢厂维持按需补库，采购价格多随行就市。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 供需与逻辑：供需格局持续趋紧，港口库存显著增加，但下游采购需 ...

2025年12月19日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续高位震荡。 金 属 基本面：美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈 塞特称 CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以降息；美国上周首申人数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前 激增趋势；英国央行"鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难；德国上调明年 发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血；欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动。国内黄金 ETF 小幅流出，COMEX 黄金库存为 1121.8 吨， +2.5 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.7 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1052.5 吨，维持不变；伦敦 11 月黄金库 存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14093.8 吨，+7 吨；上期所白银库存为 912 吨，+0.2 吨；金交所 上周库存 714.4，+21 吨，iShares 白银 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each product, the strategies suggest a "sideways" movement: - Steel: Sideways [1] - Iron ore: Sideways [2][3] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [3][4] - Thermal coal: The report does not provide a clear strategy but indicates a weak price trend [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall market of black building materials is affected by multiple factors such as environmental protection production restrictions, seasonal production cuts, and changes in supply - demand relationships. Each product shows different supply - demand characteristics and price trends, and most products are in a state of price fluctuations. 3. Summary by Product Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,081 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,246 yuan/ton. The spot trading volume of steel was average. The low - price transactions in the morning were good, but there were few transactions after price increases, and the basis shrank. The national building materials trading volume was 99,186 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For building materials, there is no significant production pressure currently, and inventory is continuously decreasing. For plates, high inventory continues to suppress prices, but demand resilience remains. In the short term, the supply side is affected by environmental protection and seasonal production cuts, and raw material support may weaken [1]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [1] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The iron ore 2605 contract closed at 761 yuan, up 0.92%. Spot prices rose slightly, but trading volume was low. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills maintained on - demand restocking, with purchase prices mostly following the market [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The demand side of iron ore is currently weak. The steel product market has weak supply and demand, and steel mills' production enthusiasm is not high under the state of small profits, resulting in a continuous decline in hot metal production. Although the demand is weak, the iron ore price remains high due to the tight supply of some varieties at ports and weak liquidity, temporarily covering up the supply - demand contradiction. In the future, as steel mills start seasonal production cuts and are affected by environmental protection production restrictions, hot metal production is expected to further decline. If the port resource liquidity improves, combined with the fundamental supply - demand contradiction, the iron ore price will face significant downward pressure [2]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2][3] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, coking coal and coke futures continued the previous pattern of sideways and slightly stronger, and continued to rebound slightly. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, port inventory continued to accumulate, prices fluctuated with the market, and downstream market procurement was cautious, with limited overall trading activity [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Coking coal currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. Coal mines are mainly operating with low supply, and supply has slightly shrunk. Downstream coke has the expectation of further price cuts, and enterprises' enthusiasm for restocking is average, mostly for on - demand procurement. Coke also faces pressure on both supply and demand. Supply has slightly declined, and on the demand side, some steel mills are undergoing maintenance and production cuts, and the winter storage restocking plan has not yet been launched, with a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market [4]. - **Strategy**: Sideways for both coking coal and coke in single - side trading; no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3][4] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the producing areas, the coal prices in the main producing areas continued to run weakly. Downstream demand was mainly for on - demand hauling, and speculative demand was weak. Most coal mines sold at reduced prices, but sales did not improve, and mine inventory accumulated. At ports, affected by the continuous weakness in the producing areas, port quotes continued to decline. Some traders were extremely pessimistic about the future market, and the phenomenon of selling at a loss intensified. Currently, port inventory is high, the number of anchored ships is small, and the turnover rate has not increased. Traders at ports generally have a pessimistic attitude, believing that the current decline is large and there is still an expectation of further decline in the future. In terms of imports, affected by domestic coal prices, the tender price of imported coal continued to decline, and the market trading atmosphere was cold [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have continued to run weakly, with downstream consumption falling short of expectations and relatively high inventory. Some coal mines have completed their annual tasks, so it is difficult to have significant improvement in supply in the later period. In the medium and long term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, as well as coal consumption and restocking [5]. - **Strategy**: The report does not provide a clear trading strategy but mentions factors such as coal mine safety supervision dynamics, port inventory accumulation changes, daily consumption of thermal coal and chemical coal, and other unexpected accidents that need to be concerned [5]

【铁矿】 铁矿 今日走势偏弱。 供应端，全球发运环比增加，大幅强于去年同期水平。国内到港量环比继续回落，略低于去年同期水平， 港口库存保持累库趋势并逼近年内高位。需求端，淡季终端需求处于低位，钢厂盈利情况较差，上周铁水继续减产，预计未来 保持季节性减产趋势，但降幅趋缓。海外降息预期升温，国内将要召开重要会议，整体宏观氛围偏暖。铁矿石基本面较为宽 松，短期部分矿种有流动性扰动，中长期来看随着供需逐步过剩，整体走势有震荡下行压力。 【焦炭】 日内价格偏弱震荡。市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需 采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧 性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，价格或偏弱震荡为主。 | | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月09日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | ...

棕榈油周报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 洪灾引发供应担忧 棕榈油 V 型反弹 核心观点及策略 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 棕榈油周报 一、市场数据 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周，BMD马棕油主连涨46收于4114林吉特/吨，涨幅 1.13%；棕榈油01合约涨76收于8626元/吨，涨幅0.89%； 豆油01合约涨54收于8244元/吨，涨幅0.66%；菜油01合 约跌59收于9757元/吨，跌幅0.6%；CBOT豆油主连涨 1.47收于52.08美分/磅，涨幅2.90%；ICE油菜籽活跃合 约涨9.9收于651.7加元/吨，涨幅1.54%。 ⚫ 棕榈油周内先跌后涨，呈 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals - International oil prices rebounded overnight, with the Brent 01 contract up 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains [1]. - Precious metals rose overnight. With multiple Fed officials advocating a December rate cut, the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Copper prices oscillated overnight. The domestic spot market shows a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly overnight. The inventory decreased, and the demand has resilience but lacks highlights. The price adjustment may continue, with support at around 21,100 yuan [4]. - Alumina supply is in an oversupply pattern, and it will mainly operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5]. - Cast aluminum alloy continues to follow the aluminum price, and the spread with AL may narrow [6]. - Zinc prices found support at the 60 - day moving average. The LME zinc 0 - 3 month spot premium remains high. The rebound height of Shanghai zinc is limited, and it is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Lead prices are looking for support at the annual line. The export of lead - acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the stainless - steel cost support continues to move down [9]. - Tin prices are mainly considered for short - selling, and call options can be used to hedge risks [10]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices oscillated sharply at high levels, and risk control should be prioritized [11]. - Polysilicon futures prices maintain an oscillating pattern due to weak supply and demand [12]. - Industrial silicon futures maintain an oscillating operation, and attention should be paid to the dynamics of silicone prices [13]. - Steel prices oscillated narrowly at night. Supply pressure is gradually easing, and demand is still weak. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in a range [14]. - Iron ore fundamentals are becoming more relaxed, and the price is expected to oscillate [15]. - Coke prices may oscillate weakly [16]. - Coking coal prices may oscillate weakly [17]. - Silicomanganese prices oscillated. The bottom support expectation has moved down [18]. - Ferrosilicon prices oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19]. - The SCFIS European route index rose significantly. The 02 contract may maintain a discount, and the price of the 12 contract has limited up - and - down space [20]. - Both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22]. Group 2: Chemicals - Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [23]. - Methanol futures rose sharply. You can try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices, but beware of weak reality [24]. - Pure benzene continues the idea of short - selling on rebounds, and options can be considered for allocation [25]. - Styrene supply and demand are in a tight balance, but the sustainability of support is questionable, and the rebound height is limited [26]. - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices have certain low - level support, but the supply pressure of polyethylene increases, and the demand of polypropylene and polyethylene is weak [27]. - PVC may follow the cost, and caustic soda runs weakly [28]. - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production, and PTA is mainly driven by cost [29]. - Ethylene glycol prices have a short - term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30]. - Short - fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials, and bottle - chip prices are mainly driven by cost [31]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production and wait for the Sino - US trade agreement [35]. - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Palm oil supply is increasing while demand is weak [36]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are supported by supply shortages. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [37]. - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38]. - Corn futures oscillated at a high level. There are still differences in the new - season corn output. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39]. - Live hog futures had a large increase in the far - month contract. The price may have a second bottoming next year [40]. - Egg prices: Pay attention to the spot price performance and the convergence of the basis [41]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate in a range. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - Sugar prices: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production expectations are good. Pay attention to production progress [43]. - Apple prices oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory reduction situation [44]. - Wood prices oscillated. Low inventory supports prices, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - Pulp prices fell slightly. Supply is loose, demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Instruments - A - shares rose in a narrow range with shrinking volume. The short - term macro - liquidity uncertainty restricts the market. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but there may be phased adjustments [48].

Group 1: Energy - The international oil price fell overnight, with the Brent 01 contract down 0.8%. The geopolitical risk premium of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was suppressed, and the oil price rebound due to geopolitical factors was limited. The market is expected to be weak and volatile [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil is stronger than high-sulfur fuel oil. The low-sulfur market is supported by supply disruptions and strong diesel cracking, while the high-sulfur market is expected to face supply increases in the medium term [21] - The cost support for asphalt is weakening, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally. The market sentiment is bearish [22] - The expected import cost of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is rising in December. The demand from both the chemical and combustion sectors is improving, and the LPG market is expected to be strong [23] Group 2: Metals - Precious metals are oscillating at a high level. The employment data is mixed, and the Fed officials' statements are divided. The possibility of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough on the technical side [2] - Copper prices fell overnight due to a stronger dollar and weak demand. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 87,000 yuan [3] - Aluminum prices fluctuated narrowly. The Fed's interest rate cut prospects are uncertain, and the aluminum market may continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to the support of the middle Bollinger Band [4] - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The inventory structure is gradually being repaired, and there is still profit potential for cross-market arbitrage [7] - Lead prices are supported by low inventory levels, but the external market is under pressure due to high inventory. The import window for aluminum ingots may open, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [8] - Nickel prices are weakening. The macro risk is increasing, and the support from the upstream price rebound is weakening. The inventory of nickel and stainless steel is increasing [9] - Tin prices are oscillating. The environmental rectification in Malaysia has limited impact on the market. The import of tin concentrate in China has improved slightly, but the resumption of supply from Myanmar is not strong. Short positions can be held with a stop-loss at 295,000 yuan [10] - Lithium carbonate prices are strengthening. The downstream demand is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The technical analysis shows a range breakthrough, and a buy-on-dip strategy can be adopted [11] - Polycrystalline silicon prices are falling. The photovoltaic demand is weak, and the actual supply-demand improvement is limited. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [12] - Industrial silicon prices are undergoing a technical correction. The downstream demand for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon is expected to improve, which may boost the price [13] Group 3: Building Materials - Steel prices rebounded at night. The demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils is improving, but the supply pressure is gradually easing. Attention should be paid to the environmental protection restrictions in Tangshan [14] - Iron ore prices are oscillating. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to be range-bound in the short term [15] - Coke and coking coal prices are expected to be weak and oscillating. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream demand is stable, but the steel mills' profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is high [16][17] - Manganese silicon and silicon iron prices are falling. The market expects coal supply to increase, which may lower the cost. The demand is stable, but the supply is high, and the bottom support may weaken [18][19] Group 4: Chemicals - Urea prices are oscillating narrowly. The Indian tender results will affect the market sentiment. The agricultural demand is weakening, but the industrial demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [24] - Methanol prices are in a weak position. The overseas supply is high, and the demand is expected to decline. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [25] - Pure benzene prices are rebounding, but the sustainability is uncertain. The supply pressure is easing, and the demand is expected to improve, but the export to the US faces challenges [26] - Styrene prices are supported by cost and supply reduction. The demand from the European market is strong [27] - Polypropylene, polyethylene, and propylene prices are expected to be weak. The supply is high, and the demand is low, and the supply-demand contradiction is increasing [28] - PVC and caustic soda prices are falling. The cost support is weakening, and the demand is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the cost changes and profit margins [29] - PX and PTA prices are oscillating. The supply from overseas may be affected, and the demand is weakening. The market is cautiously bullish [30] - Ethylene glycol prices are expected to be bearish. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. A short strategy can be adopted [31] - Short fiber and bottle chip prices are under pressure. The demand is weakening, and the prices are expected to follow the raw material prices [32] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Soybean and soybean meal prices are oscillating. The US soybean planting area is expected to increase, and the impact of La Nina on South American soybean production needs to be monitored. A buy-on-dip strategy can be considered after the correction [36] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices are affected by the US biodiesel policy. The palm oil price may have bottomed out [37] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil prices are under pressure. The import volume has decreased, and the demand is weak. A bearish strategy is recommended [38] - Corn prices are oscillating. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving. The Dalian corn futures 01 contract may continue to decline [40] - Hog prices are at a low level. The futures market is trading on the potential supply pressure in the future. The pig price may form a double bottom in the first half of next year [41] - Egg prices are rebounding strongly. The spot price is stable. Attention should be paid to whether the previous price decline has ended [42] - Cotton prices are range-bound. The US cotton export sales are increasing, but the domestic demand is average. The Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be range-bound in the short term [43] - Sugar prices are oscillating. The international market supply is sufficient, and the domestic market is focusing on the new season's production estimate. The production in Guangxi is expected to be good [43] - Apple prices are oscillating at a high level. The short-term price is strong due to low inventory, but the long-term inventory pressure may exist. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction [44] Group 6: Others - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in early December and may improve in late December. The 02 contract may be slightly discounted compared to the 12 contract, and the far-month contracts are expected to be low and oscillating [20] - Wood prices are oscillating. The low inventory supports the price, and a wait-and-see strategy is recommended [45] - Pulp prices are falling. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [46] - Stock index futures are falling. The A-share market is volatile, and the external market is uncertain. A wait-and-see strategy is recommended, and attention can be paid to stable, consumer, and cyclical sectors [47] - Treasury bond futures are falling. The market is trading lightly, and the structure is differentiated. The change in market risk preference may bring new opportunities [48]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand and production decreased, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. Due to a sharp decline in steel mill margins and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than normal seasonal levels, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coal - coke and iron ore prices have weakened, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a short - term rapid rise but faced resistance from the 60 - day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The mid - term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the sample steel mills' hot metal production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, hot metal production is likely to decline seasonally, and steel mills' production cuts will suppress raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventory is rising, suppressing the futures price. The slow inventory reduction of steel products also dampens market sentiment. Technically, the 01 - contract price broke through the middle Bollinger Band but faced resistance from the dense trading area, remaining in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices showed different trends. For example, the rebar futures price decreased slightly compared to the previous day but increased compared to last week. The hot - rolled coil futures price also decreased slightly from the previous day but increased from last week. Some spot prices increased, while others decreased [3]. - **Production and Profitability**: The 247 - steel - mill blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, and the daily average hot metal output was 236.88 million tons. The proportion of profitable steel mills was 38.96%. National rebar and hot - rolled coil production decreased last week, with rebar production dropping by 4.10% and hot - rolled coil production by 1.41% [3]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel - mill inventories of the five major steel products decreased. Rebar social and steel - mill inventories decreased by 2.34% and 3.85% respectively, while hot - rolled coil social inventory decreased slightly by 0.01%, and steel - mill inventory increased by 0.12% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 0.73% compared to last week, with rebar and hot - rolled coil showing similar downward trends [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of iron ore increased compared to the previous day and last week. For example, the DCE iron ore主力 contract settlement price increased by 0.44% compared to the previous day and 3.80% compared to last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Demand is expected to decline as steel mills cut production. Supply - side global shipments are decreasing, and port inventory is rising. The arrival volume is expected to decline in the future [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before taking long - term positions for mid - term trading [5]. Industry News - **Steel Mill Maintenance**: Shanxi Gaoyi plans to shut down a 1380m³ blast furnace for maintenance on November 23, affecting daily hot metal production by about 0.45 million tons and wire rod production by about 0.5 million tons [7]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 Chinese ports decreased by 20.04 million tons compared to last Monday. From November 10 to 16, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 22.7 million tons, reaching the highest level since the fourth quarter [7]. - **Brazilian Iron Ore Shipment**: In the second week of November 2025, Brazil shipped 1705.39 million tons of iron ore, with a daily average shipment of 170.54 million tons per day, a 3.23% decrease compared to November last year [7]. - **Glass Deep - Processing Orders**: As of November 17, the average order days of national glass deep - processing sample enterprises decreased by 8.9% compared to the previous period and 24.2% year - on - year [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic and international macro environment is in a vacuum, with the core focus of the fundamentals on the domestic demand side. The supply side remains stable with a slight increase. Currently in the seasonal production - reduction period, overall demand is on a marginal decline. However, considering the low inventory level at the steel - mill end, large basis rate, and significant internal - external price difference, the current price is expected to be at a relatively low level. In the short term, there's no need to be overly pessimistic. Overall, the price is expected to move down but remain range - bound [2]. - The price is expected to operate within a range. The main contract of Dalian Iron Ore Futures is expected to be in the range of 750 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 100.5 - 104.5 US dollars/ton. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell put options [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - External iron ore shipments declined on a week - on - week basis but remained at a high level year - on - year, with the supply - side support remaining weak. As of the week ending November 10, the total global iron ore shipments were 3,069.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 144.8 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,548.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 210.6 million tons. From the perspective of the 5 - week average shipments, the global iron ore shipments were 3,242.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 216 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,797.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 295.3 million tons [2]. Demand - The loss - making range of domestic blast - furnace steel mills continues to expand. In addition, environmental protection restrictions in Handan have been tightened, leading to an increase in the number of blast - furnace overhauls. Multiple regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Northeast China have seen a decline in demand and losses. Although the number of blast - furnace restarts in North China has increased, due to the sintering restriction policy in North China, the blast - furnace operating rate has increased while the molten iron output has decreased. Overall, domestic iron ore demand has shown a trend of decline due to environmental protection factors and shrinking production profits, which is in line with the seasonal production - reduction pattern. There is also an expectation of seasonal production cuts by steel mills in regions such as Xinjiang in the later stage. It is likely that the molten iron output will continue to decline slowly [2]. Inventory - Under the pattern of strong supply and weak demand, the inventory at domestic ports has continued to accumulate. In the short term, the pressure on the supply side remains, and although the decline rate of the demand side may slow down, it is still in a downward cycle. As of November 7, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 14,898.83 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356.35 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 370.23 million tons [2].