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赵建:本轮牛市还能持续多久
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-31 05:16
Market Outlook - The current bull market is characterized by a "stronger will remain strong" dynamic, with the A-share market recently breaking through the 4000-point mark, indicating a significant upward trend [1][3][10] - The global financial market is witnessing a rare phenomenon where almost all risk assets are rising, including equities across various markets such as A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and U.S. stocks [3][4] Economic Indicators - The bull market is supported by a "risk-friendly" macro trading environment, influenced by factors such as U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and improved Sino-U.S. relations [2][3][10] - The current economic landscape shows a structural divergence, with deflation in the second-largest economy (China) and inflationary pressures in the largest economy (U.S.), impacting the performance of risk assets [4][10] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in capital allocation, with a significant portion of China's savings moving towards equities as traditional low-yield assets become less attractive [6][10] - The bull market is primarily driven by state financial capital and large institutional investors, rather than retail investors, indicating a more stable market environment [5][6] Future Projections - The upcoming "Fifteen Five" plan is expected to enhance the role of the capital market in supporting economic growth, particularly in areas like technology innovation and consumer expansion [7][10] - The long-term trend for gold remains bullish despite short-term volatility, as it is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as U.S. interest rates and inflation [2][3][9] Global Context - The current bull market is part of a larger global trend, with the U.S. experiencing a prolonged bull market driven by government debt and monetary policy, which contrasts with the private sector's financial health [8][9] - The geopolitical landscape, including improved relations between major economies, is contributing to a more favorable investment climate, further supporting the bull market [11]