1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand and inventory situation of rubber shows a complex pattern. The supply of natural rubber at home and abroad is decreasing, while the demand from downstream tire enterprises is relatively stable. The inventory of both natural and synthetic rubber is increasing. The recent rise of synthetic rubber is mainly due to the movement of chemical products, and the contradiction in naphtha makes BR and ethylene glycol more prominent. In 2026, the ENSO index indicates that the supply of natural rubber may increase, and the investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing suggests that the production pressure of synthetic rubber is not large. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber before the third quarter of 2026 [2][3][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Natural rubber has a dual - decline in domestic and foreign supply. Domestic Yunnan and Hainan have stopped tapping, and overseas, some regions are near the end of the tapping season, with only southern Thailand in the peak production season. The supply of cis - butadiene rubber has a slight contraction, with the average operating load of domestic high - cis cis - butadiene plants at 75.75%, 0.15 percentage points lower than last week, and some plants continue to be shut down, with a weekly maintenance loss of about 2730 tons [2]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand of downstream tire enterprises is generally stable. For natural rubber, the tire enterprise's operation fluctuates little, and the lower rubber price stimulates downstream purchasing. For cis - butadiene rubber, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises is 62.70%, slightly down 0.14 percentage points from last week but 20.70 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a significant improvement in year - on - year demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate. The total inventory in Qingdao is 57.91 tons, an increase of 1.52 tons (2.7% increase) from the previous period. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber also rises, with a weekly increase of 6.83% [2]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side trading**: Try to short a small amount of the RU main 05 contract, and set the stop - loss at the previous high of 16390 points; try to short a small amount of the NR main 03 contract, and set the stop - loss at the recent high of 13150 points; wait and see for the BR main 03 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the BR2605 - RU2605 at - 3195 points, and move the stop - loss up to the recent high of - 3340 points [4]. - **Options**: Hold the RU2605 call option 16500 at 609 points, and set the stop - loss at the previous low of 529 points [4]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Apparent Consumption - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of butadiene increased to 55.63 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 17.4%, and two consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread. The apparent consumption of cis - butadiene rubber decreased to 13.11 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and marginal decrease, which is also beneficial to the BR - RU spread [13]. - In December 2025, the net import of domestic butadiene increased to 5.50 tons (1.65 tons after a 30% conversion), and the net import of domestic cis - butadiene rubber increased to 0.12 tons, with a total of 1.77 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 tons, slightly negative for the BR - RU spread. The domestic butadiene production increased to 50.01 tons for three consecutive months (15.00 tons after a 30% conversion), and the total production of cis - butadiene in China and Japan increased to 15.99 tons, with a total of 30.97 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and three consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [15]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Inventory - Since January, the port inventory of domestic butadiene has increased for five consecutive months to 4.13 tons (1.24 tons after a 30% conversion), the factory inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased to 2.72 tons, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders has increased for two consecutive months to 0.71 tons, with a total of 4.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.3%. There has been six consecutive months of marginal inventory reduction, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [25]. 3.5 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Supply Scale and Cost Support - In December 2025, the apparent consumption of BR&BR (calculated) increased to 32.7 tons. In January, the explicit inventory of BD&BR increased for five consecutive months to 4.7 tons. The sum of the above data with a one - month lag is 37.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, and six consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [31]. - In January, Brent crude oil rebounded to $63.5 per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%, and four consecutive months of marginal decline, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [31]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Capacity Utilization and Profit - The profit of the carbon - four extraction process is 2693 yuan/ton, an increase of 317 yuan/ton from the previous period; the profit of the oxidative dehydrogenation process is 872 yuan/ton, an increase of 191 yuan/ton from the previous period. The cost pressure of butadiene has been slightly relieved, and the prices of suppliers are firm, which affects the improvement of the profits of different processes [41]. - As of January 22, 2026, taking Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber as an example, the theoretical cost of cis - butadiene rubber has further increased to 12697 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production profit has decreased to - 697 yuan/ton. Due to the short - term reduction in overseas butadiene supply and domestic butadiene export transactions, the cost pressure of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to be difficult to significantly relieve, and the production profit is difficult to improve significantly [41]. 3.7 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Processing Margin - In January, the margin of domestic butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation units has improved for two consecutive months to - 50 yuan/ton, and the margin of domestic butadiene carbon - four extraction method has increased for two consecutive months to 1877 yuan/ton. The production margin of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has decreased for two consecutive months to 211 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 1167 yuan/ton, the largest increase since February 2024. The BD margin - BR margin is reported at + 0.17 million yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 0.37 million yuan/ton, and has been deteriorating for two consecutive months, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [45][50]. 3.8 Synthetic Rubber Supply - Margin Variance and Import Margin - In January, the FOB price of butadiene in South Korea has increased for two consecutive months to $930.0 per ton, and the CFR price of butadiene in China has increased for two consecutive months to $965.0 per ton. The margin of BD to South Korea is reported at - $35.0 per ton, a year - on - year increase of $7.5 per ton, and five consecutive months of marginal increase, which is beneficial to the BR - RU spread [56]. - The variance of the three margins is reported at 7.3×10^5, a year - on - year decrease of 188.2%, and has been stable for two consecutive months, which is negative for the BR - RU spread [56]. 3.9 Rubber Supply - Synthetic Rubber Production vs. Natural Rubber Climate - Although the valuation of the chemical industry has been weakening due to over - supply during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the BR - RU spread can offset most of the macro and consumption disturbances and reflect the supply differences between synthetic and natural rubber. The ENSO index indicates that the supply of natural rubber may increase in the first half of 2026, and the investment in chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing suggests that the production pressure of synthetic rubber is not large. It is recommended to go long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber before the third quarter of 2026 [62]. 3.10 Natural Rubber Supply - ANRPC Member Countries' Production and Export - In October, the total production of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 114.4 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, with the growth rate narrowing. The total export of natural rubber in the ANRPC increased to 82.6 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the growth rate has been narrowing for four consecutive months [68]. 3.11 Micro - consumption - The average year - on - year increase in the automobile production of China and South Korea is 7.7%, with ten consecutive months of accelerated production increase, which is beneficial to the single - side trading of BR [69]. - In November, the production of domestic passenger cars increased for four consecutive months to 3.144 million, a record high; in October, the production of South Korean passenger cars decreased to 285,000. The combined production of passenger cars in China and South Korea with a one - month lag is 3.429 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In November, the production of domestic commercial vehicles increased to 388,000; in October, the production of South Korean commercial vehicles decreased for two consecutive months to 18,000. The combined production of commercial vehicles in China and South Korea with a one - month lag is 406,000, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% [74]. - In November, the export value of domestic tires increased to $1.82 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%, and four consecutive months of marginal decrease, which is negative for the single - side trading of BR [74]. 3.12 Micro - consumption - Tires - For semi - steel tires, the all - season tire market is weak, with sufficient supply, and the channels mainly replenish goods according to rigid demand. The snow - tire market is in the stage of terminal demand digestion, and the channels mainly replenish the shortage. For all - steel tires, the market transaction continues to be weak. Due to the off - season demand and capital pressure, the purchasing willingness of merchants at all levels is low, and they mainly digest the existing inventory. As of January 15, the average inventory turnover days of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 47.92 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.56 days and a year - on - year increase of 5.49 days; the average inventory turnover days of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 46.1 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.48 days and a year - on - year decrease of 1.56 days [81]. 3.13 Macro - consumption - Since December 2025, the CSI 1000 index has fallen for two consecutive months to 7321 points, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. In December 2025, the global automobile industry index has rebounded for two consecutive months to - 22.0 points, a year - on - year increase of 35.8 points, with the growth rate narrowing. In October 2025, the electricity consumption of the domestic rubber and plastic industry decreased to 16.65 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, with the growth rate narrowing. In November 2025, the cumulative production of domestic and foreign tires increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with two consecutive months of marginal increase [90].