Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous impact of the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene within the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, further reducing supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 18,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 16,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 65,209 lots, a decrease of 7,028 lots. The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse was 24,980 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 1,415 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 112.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.21 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 17,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,450 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 2,580 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil was 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU, NR, and BR are all cautiously bullish [11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of natural rubber is not significant in the short - term, with cost - side support and downstream tire demand showing certain resilience. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to continue to narrow [11] - The cost of butadiene for BR has weakened, and the supply is expected to decline. With downstream tire demand having some support, the price of BR is expected to remain relatively strong [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 16,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,015 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 19,000 yuan/ton, a change of + 500 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 17,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Tire Exports**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export increment to Africa being the most prominent, and the export center continued to shift to emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia [2] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively [2] - **Rubber Imports and Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Production in 2025**: Thailand's natural rubber production was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The harvesting area decreased slightly, but the yield per mu increased by 0.5% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the RU basis was - 95 yuan/ton (+ 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (- 95), and the NR basis was 338.00 yuan/ton (+ 96.00) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 79.55 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.60), the price of Thai glue was 80.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [6] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%). The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+ 5,814), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (- 30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (- 4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the BR basis was 250 yuan/ton (+ 175). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+ 0) [8] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%). The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9][10] Strategy - **RU and NR**: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, the cost - side support is strong, and the downstream tire operating rate is rising slightly. NR is expected to perform better, and the spread between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - **BR**: Cautiously bullish. The cost has weakened, the supply is expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain relatively strong [12]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene rubber plant's scheduled inspection has further reduced supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate, but some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the futures price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,350 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 375. The open interest of the main contract is 72,237, a decrease of 14,968. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 24,980 tons, a decrease of 30 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are all 18,050 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 112.78 US dollars/barrel, and the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 18,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil is 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.95 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons, and the trader's inventory is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces, and the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. Industry News - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU, NR, and BR [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the short - term supply pressure is not significant, raw material prices are rising slightly, and the cost - side support is strong. The downstream tire start - up rate is rising slightly, and the replacement demand will support natural rubber. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - For BR, although the price of butadiene has stagnated due to downstream load reduction, the core influencing factors remain unchanged. Supply is expected to decline, and with the support of raw material prices, the price of BR will remain strong [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,845 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 18,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export to Africa increasing the most, and the export to developed regions being relatively weak [2] - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; sales were 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [2] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% [2] - In January 2026, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; consumption was expected to increase by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The global natural rubber production in 2026 was expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, with different changes in different countries [3] - In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%; the export of latex was 123,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and price difference: On March 30, 2026, the RU basis was - 140 yuan/ton (+20), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (-90), the NR basis was 242.00 yuan/ton (+11.00); the price of whole latex was 16,400 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton (+120), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 2,035 US dollars/ton (+15), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was - 2,900 yuan/ton (+120) [5] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 78.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.99), the price of Thai glue was 79.50 Thai baht/kg (+2.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.75), and the price difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 20.00 Thai baht/kg (+1.25) [6] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+0.03%), and the start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+0.05%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+5,814), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (-4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (-30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (-4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and price difference: On March 30, 2026, the BR basis was 75 yuan/ton (+115), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 18,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 17,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,831 yuan/ton (+3) [8] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (-12.39%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (-1,750) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. The domestic is in the early stage of tapping, and overseas will also start tapping next month. But the short - term supply pressure is not significant, and the cost - side support is strong. The downstream tire start - up rate is rising slightly, and the replacement demand will support natural rubber. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - For BR, be cautiously bullish. Although the price of butadiene has stagnated due to downstream load reduction, the core influencing factors remain unchanged. Supply is expected to decline, and with the support of raw material prices, the price of BR will remain strong [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar industry in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "oscillating" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating", with the synthetic rubber part being "oscillating and slightly bullish" [4]. 2. Core Views - For the sugar market, the overseas market is focused on India and Thailand's final sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making process. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. In the domestic market, the 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, with a supply - demand structure that is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support for Zhengzhou sugar, which is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - For the rubber market, natural rubber has a mixed fundamental situation. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supports raw material prices, but demand drag from some semi - steel tire enterprises and high inventory in Qingdao suppress prices. The market still has a bullish sentiment due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, and NR performs stronger than RU. Synthetic rubber, especially BR, is in an upward channel. High raw material costs and geopolitical conflicts keep the price rising, and it may continue to oscillate upwards in the short term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Market Conditions - SR605 contract closed at 5441 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.42%, and 5431 yuan/ton at night. SR609 contract closed at 5467 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.36%, and 5464 yuan/ton at night [1]. - ICE raw sugar's main contract was at 15.54 cents/pound yesterday, with a daily decline of 1.33% [1]. Important Information - Guangxi's white sugar spot transaction price was 5446 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. Guangxi's sugar - making group's quotation range was 5430 - 5510 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Yunnan's sugar - making group's quotation was 5280 - 5340 yuan/ton, with some up 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar factories was 5690 - 5860 yuan/ton, with individual prices up 10 yuan/ton [1]. - From the 2025/26 sugar - making season to mid - March, the cumulative crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 603.667 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.65 billion tons (2.21%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.25 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.07 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.61%, an increase of 2.53% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 32.962 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 billion liters (4.21%). The cumulative sugar production was 402.5 million tons, an increase of 282,000 tons (0.71%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season in India's Maharashtra state, 183 out of 210 sugar mills have stopped production, and the remaining 27 are expected to stop in the next 15 days. In Uttar Pradesh, about 78 sugar mills are expected to continue production until mid - April [1]. - From March 27th to 30th, 10 more sugar mills in Guangxi stopped production. As of March 30th, the number of sugar mills that have stopped production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi has reached 38, more than half of the total [1]. - The white sugar warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 16,862 yesterday, a daily increase of 520 [1]. Market Logic - Overseas: ICE raw sugar rose and then fell. The market focuses on India and Thailand's sugar production and Brazil's new - season sugar - making. High oil prices may lead to a higher ethanol - making ratio in Brazil, tightening sugar supply. If oil prices remain high or rise, raw sugar may have more upside potential [1]. - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar rose first and then fell. The 2025/26 sugar - making season is near the end, and the domestic supply - demand structure is relatively loose. However, high raw sugar prices and potential policy support provide some support. Technically, it is in an upward channel but faces pressure and may oscillate in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily observe Zhengzhou sugar and focus on short - term trading in the near future [1]. Rubber Market Market Conditions - As of March 30th, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The closing price of the NR main contract was 13,845 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.80%. The closing price of the BR main contract was 17,725 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 0.64% [4]. Important Information - Thailand's raw material glue price was 79.5 Thai baht/kg, and cup - rubber price was 59.5 Thai baht/kg. In Yunnan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 15,200 yuan/ton. The price of rubber blocks in Yunnan was 13,800 yuan/ton. In Hainan, the price of glue for making whole - milk rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, and for making concentrated latex was 16,500 yuan/ton [4]. - As of March 29th, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,800 tons (0.85%). The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 1.62%. The general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, an increase of 1.38% [4]. - The price of whole - milk rubber was 16,400 yuan/ton, 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 2,035 US dollars/ton (equivalent to 14,087 yuan/ton in RMB), and 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton [4]. - The price difference between the RU and NR main contracts was 2,695 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 80 yuan/ton. The price difference between mixed standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 740 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 90 yuan/ton [4]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was 17,900 - 18,300 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 17,800 - 18,000 yuan/ton [4]. - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber were stable or slightly decreased. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market was stable at 18,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market fell 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton [4]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: It was consolidating at a high level. Seasonal reduction in Southeast Asia supported raw material prices, but some semi - steel tire enterprises' production cuts dragged down overall capacity utilization. High inventory in Qingdao suppressed prices. However, due to high raw material and synthetic rubber prices, the market still had a bullish sentiment, and NR performed stronger than RU [4]. - Synthetic rubber: BR was in an upward channel and was consolidating at a high level due to long - position reduction. High raw material costs and frequent butadiene export news increased the raw material cost of cis - butadiene rubber. Although downstream procurement was cautious, the price may still rise in the short term under geopolitical conflicts [4]. Trading Strategy - Partially take profits on NR long positions; hold BR long positions [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely during the day, and the fundamentals support the price. Geopolitical conflicts may significantly increase the volatility of intraday trends, and the trading logic changes rapidly following geopolitical news. It is recommended that investors manage risks [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 05 contract of butadiene rubber, the closing price decreased by 115 yuan/ton to 17,725 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 278,976 lots to 800,879 lots, the open interest decreased by 14,951 lots to 87,205 lots, and the trading value decreased by 26,775,680,000 yuan to 7,128,557 yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract increased by 315 to 475, and the monthly spread of BR05 - BR06 decreased by 65 to 100 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene (private) remained unchanged at 17,900 yuan/ton, 18,000 yuan/ton, and 18,000 yuan/ton respectively. The market price of Shandong butadiene (delivery product) increased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,200 yuan/ton. The prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1502) decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 18,400 yuan/ton, and the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene (type 1712) decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of butadiene in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 18,100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream prices in Shandong decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 18,100 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 45.5718%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased by 206 yuan/ton to 21,246 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber decreased by 206 yuan/ton to - 2,746 yuan/ton [1]. 2. Industry News - From March 12 - 18, 2026, the domestic butadiene inventory continued to decline. The total sample inventory decreased by 6.33% compared with the previous period. The sample enterprise inventory decreased by 1.09% week - on - week, and the sample port inventory decreased by 10.97% week - on - week [2]. - As of March 25, 2026, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons or 2.58% compared with the previous period. Due to the sharp increase in raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of butadiene rubber deepened significantly, leading to some device load - reduction or shutdown. The inventory of sample production enterprises decreased significantly, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises increased slightly [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber has significantly deepened losses, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, resulting in a decline in supply. The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly last week, and it is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. Towards the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate, but individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, slightly dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see, while paying attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main contract is 87,205 lots, a decrease of 14,951 lots; the 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 25,010 tons, a decrease of 570 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Qilu Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shanghai is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Daqing Petrochemical) in Shandong is 18,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000, Maoming Petrochemical) in Guangdong is 18,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 560 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 112.57 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 4.56 US dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 1,143 US dollars/ton, an increase of 41.5 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,400 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 99.64 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 5.16 US dollars/barrel; the market price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 18,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points; the monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days. As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuates slightly. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles, a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival. As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly focusing on the implications of the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on the energy and chemical markets, especially oil and petrochemicals [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Risks**: The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to continue affecting the Middle East, with potential for further escalation. The resilience of the Iranian regime and its asymmetric warfare capabilities are highlighted as significant factors [2][3]. - **Oil Price Predictions**: If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for more than two months, Brent crude oil prices could surge to $165 per barrel, and potentially reach $200 if the blockade lasts three months or longer [1][4]. - **Domestic Refinery Challenges**: Chinese refineries are facing severe challenges due to the high oil prices and raw material shortages. By April, many refineries are expected to exhaust their low-cost raw materials, leading to reduced output [1][5]. - **Product Price Dynamics**: The price of finished oil products is under pressure, with a significant drop in the throughput of refined products through the Strait of Hormuz. The profit margins for middle distillates are expected to rise in the long term [1][4]. - **Chemical Market Outlook**: Ethylene glycol is expected to remain bullish due to reduced imports from Saudi Arabia, while PX/PTA may face short-term weakness due to high inventory levels but are viewed positively in the long term [1][5][15]. - **Methanol Imports**: Methanol import expectations have been revised down to 500,000 tons, with a supportive de-inventory logic for the 5-9 month contracts [1][5]. - **Food Security in Iran**: Iran's food reserves are estimated to last only 3-4 months, and the blockade could lead to a severe food security crisis [1][23]. Additional Important Content - **Refinery Operations**: Domestic refineries, particularly private ones, are expected to reduce output significantly due to the inability to procure raw materials. This could lead to increased prices for by-products like asphalt and undervalued chemicals [1][5]. - **Global Oil Supply**: The records indicate that the global oil supply is under strain, with a notable decrease in Russian oil exports due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which could further exacerbate the situation [6][7]. - **Market Sentiment**: There is a mixed sentiment regarding the duration of the geopolitical events, with market participants uncertain about the future trajectory of oil prices and supply dynamics [16][22]. - **Trading Strategies**: Recommendations include focusing on long positions in chemical by-products and considering the timing of entering positions in PX and PTA based on refinery output trends [16][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and arguments presented in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the energy and chemical markets amid geopolitical tensions.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared significantly, with the spot price ranging from 15,600 to 18,000 yuan/ton. The continuous impact of the military conflict in the Middle East has led to a reduction in the supply of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products, causing the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber to rise continuously. As of March 26, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 18,500 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 18,500 - 18,600 yuan/ton [7]. - In the near future, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a continuous impact on crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply shortages, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The rotational inspection of the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant has further reduced the supply. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased significantly. Considering that the price of butadiene has not substantially declined and some plants will enter the regular maintenance state, it is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [7]. - On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared this week, with the spot price in the range of 15,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 18,500 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 18,500 - 18,600 yuan/ton as of March 26, 2026 [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene is tight. Production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened, and some plants have reduced production or shut down. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has slight fluctuations, with some short - term maintenance arrangements [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical changes [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 11.6% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in the report. - **Inter - month Spread**: As of March 27, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was 165 [19]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 24,300 tons, an increase of 1,340 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price and Basis**: As of March 26, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 17,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 310 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Naphtha and Ethylene Prices**: As of March 26, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1,101.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory**: As of March 27, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from last week [33]. 3.3.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In February 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39% from last week [36]. - **Production Profit**: As of March 26, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 41,510 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly [47]. - **Tire Exports**: In February 2026, China's tire exports were 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. From January to February, the cumulative tire exports were 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82% and a year - on - year increase of 17.79%; from January to February, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 543,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 344,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52% and a year - on - year increase of 23.97%; from January to February, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core View of the Report - For natural rubber, although domestic production is expected to gradually increase, overseas supply is still in the off - season. Supply is slightly rising but pressure is not obvious, and the cost - side support is strong. The tire factory's opening rate has increased, but factors such as reduced profit margins and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz may suppress future demand. After the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is repaired, the strength of synthetic rubber will drive up the price of natural rubber. - For BR, upstream production losses have led to a decrease in supply. The tire factory's opening rate is increasing, but there are also factors suppressing future demand. The contraction of upstream supply will improve the supply - demand situation of BR, and prices are expected to remain strong before the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,975 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,600 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,010 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 18,000 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - **Tire Exports**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 73.01 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions showed obvious differentiation, with the export increment in Africa being the most prominent and the export center shifting to emerging markets [2]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% [2]. - **Rubber Imports**: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% [2]. - **Heavy - Duty Truck Sales**: In February 2026, the wholesale sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 75,000, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - **Global Natural Rubber**: In January 2026, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to increase by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The global natural rubber production in 2026 was expected to increase by 2.2% year - on - year to 15.324 million tons [3]. - **Thai Natural Rubber Exports**: In January 2026, Thailand exported 214,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The export to China was 77,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3]. - **EU Passenger Car Sales**: In January 2026, the EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Price Difference**: On March 26, 2026, the RU basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 30), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 860 yuan/ton (- 50), and the NR basis was 245.00 yuan/ton (- 7.00) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 76.66 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.77), the price of Thai rubber latex was 77.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 58.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price difference between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 18.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [5]. - **Opening Rate**: The opening rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the opening rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 685,569 tons (+ 8,000), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,440 tons (+ 4,600), and the NR futures inventory was 48,082 tons (- 1,209) [6]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Price Difference**: On March 26, 2026, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+ 345). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 18,000 yuan/ton (+ 400), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 17,700 yuan/ton (+ 600), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,901 yuan/ton (+ 457) [7]. - **Opening Rate**: The opening rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a cautious and bullish view due to factors such as the increase in domestic production, the off - season of overseas supply, cost - side support, and the improvement of downstream demand [10]. - For BR, also maintain a cautious and bullish view. The contraction of upstream supply and the improvement of downstream demand will lead to a better supply - demand situation, and prices are expected to remain strong [10].