合成气制乙二醇装置检修
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对二甲苯:芳烃调油支撑估值,高位震荡市,PTA:需求尚可,供应压力仍存,高位震荡市
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 01:40
Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views - Different commodities are expected to have various trends, including high - level oscillations, weak trends, and sideways movements. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, while MEG shows a weak trend [2][4]. Group 2: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillation market with supply increasing and demand decreasing. Aromatic blending oil demand supports the valuation. Pay attention to future aromatic logistics changes and consider shorting PXN on rallies [2][9][10]. - **PTA**: Demand has a positive feedback effect, and it can be regarded as relatively strong in the short - term. The polyester load starts to rebound unexpectedly, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure in November eases. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and short above a processing fee of 300 [2][10]. - **MEG**: The unilateral price hits a new low, and the supply pressure is still large. Multiple coal - chemical plants plan to conduct maintenance, but overall, the supply pressure from mid - November remains significant. Consider reverse arbitrage on the spread [2][10][11]. Rubber - It is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The price of Thai raw materials and the operating rate of enterprises are relatively stable [2][12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation due to the collapse of costs. The price of butadiene continues to decline, and the inventory in ports has increased. The cost of butadiene is the main factor affecting the price of synthetic rubber [2][16][18]. Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. The inventory of sample factories and social warehouses has decreased. The opening rate of refineries has decreased slightly, and the inventory rate has also decreased [2][19][31]. LLDPE - Planned unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The demand for agricultural films is showing signs of peaking, and the overall market is in an oscillatory situation. The short - term downward driving force is not strong, but medium - term supply - demand pressure exists [2][32][33]. PP - It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term. Although there is a short - term rebound due to factors such as the rebound of oil prices and supply reduction, the long - term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, so it may be in a weak - oscillation pattern [2][36][37]. Caustic Soda - It has cost support and is in an oscillatory market. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped significantly, increasing the cost of caustic soda. However, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support [2][40][42]. Pulp - It is expected to move sideways. The futures market is relatively strong, but the spot market is restricted by high inventory and weak demand. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have increased [2][46][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market price fluctuates, with some areas increasing and some decreasing. The market demand is supported by rigid demand, but the trading atmosphere is generally average [2][51][52]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The supply is high, and the demand side, especially the MTO industry, has increased pressure and compressed profits. The macro - driving force has weakened [2][55][59]. Urea - It is under oscillatory pressure. The supply increases as plants resume production, and both export and domestic demand are weak. The cost support is limited, and the downward trend is expected in the medium - term [2][60][63]. Styrene - It is in a weak - oscillation state. Pure benzene has triple pressures, but the ethylbenzene blending oil window has reopened, so the short - term absolute price is expected to oscillate [2][64][65]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply side has a slight decline, and the downstream demand maintains low - price rigid - demand replenishment. The market is in a weak - stable oscillation in the short - term [2][66][68]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the valuation of the futures price is high. The price of CP paper goods has dropped [2][71][76]. - **Propylene**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the loose pattern has improved. The PDH opening rate has increased [2][72]. PVC - It is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is stable and increasing, the demand in the north weakens seasonally, and the export price competition pressure is large. The cost support is weak, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change [2][79][81]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a relatively strong oscillation but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is a short - term adjustment at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is short - term weak, waiting for the guidance of cabin opening. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts have changed [2][84].