2026年01月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：单边高位震荡市，关注月差正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260109 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:震荡中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产维持偏低，进口利润修复明显 | 8 | | PP：丙烯强于乙烯，一季度PDH检修预期较强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260109 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡运行 | 14 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：关注地缘扰动 | 21 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：偏强震荡，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘上行，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：轻仓试多02做交割；04空单持 ...

能源化工日报 2026-01-09 2026/01/09 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收跌 8.60 元/桶，跌幅 2.02%，报 416.20 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 1.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.04%，报 2458.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 33.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.14%，报 2929.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 3.83 百万桶至 419.06 百万桶，环比去库 0.91%；SPR 补库 0.25 百万桶至 413.46 百万桶，环比补库 0.06%；汽油库存累库 7.70 百万桶 至 242.04 百万桶，环比累库 3.29%；柴油库存累库 5.59 百万桶至 129.27 百万桶，环比累库 4.52%；燃料油库存去库 0.06 百万桶至 22.98 百万桶，环比去库 0.27%；航空煤油库存累库 0.05 百万桶至 44.03 百万桶，环比累库 0.11%。 徐绍祖 聚烯 ...

全球能源格局中，石油产业主导地位直接影响国家经济安全。 中国石油行业通过持续技术升级和资源优化，已实现从资源依赖到全面领先的转变，这一点在2025年表 现尤为突出。 中国石油企业营收规模位居世界前列，中石油以4126亿美元收入排名财富500强第五，中石化紧随其后 位列第六。 这种排名超出美国原先对全球石油市场的控制预期，美国长期依赖页岩技术维持产量优势，但中国企业 通过产业链一体化管理，实现了更高的运营效率。 德国作为欧洲化工强国，注重精细产品开发。 中国石油领先地位源于技术自主创新，水平井技术从基础应用迭代到三维地震指导，采收率提升20%。 中国石油行业在乙烯和对二甲苯产能上已达到自给自足，炼油能力超过9亿吨每年。 这与德国市场规模相比更具集中度优势，推动中国在全球化工品供应中占据更大份额。 法国能源结构偏向核电和可再生，但石油加工领域，中国海上油气产量突破4000万吨，七年行动计划推 动深层开发，相比法国陆上资源有限，中国陆海协同策略更全面，技术应用范围更广。 俄罗斯作为传统产油大国，出口格局在2025年进一步转向亚洲，中国接收份额接近两成，前三季度达 7404万吨。 虽然同比略降，但管道和海运协议延长至 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - **Trend**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - **Trend**: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - **Trend**: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - **Trend**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - **Trend**: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - **Trend**: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - **Trend**: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - **Trend**: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - **Trend**: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - **Trend**: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - **Trend**: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - **Trend**: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - **Trend**: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - **Trend**: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views The report offers insights into the trends and outlooks of various commodities in the futures market on January 8, 2026. It analyzes the fundamentals, news, and trends of each commodity, providing investment suggestions and trend intensities. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe-haven sentiment has rebounded. The trend intensity is 1. China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months [5][6]. - **Silver**: Prices have corrected from high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed. The trend intensity is 0 [9]. - **Zinc**: Prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory is supporting prices. The trend intensity is 0 [15]. - **Tin**: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have retreated after reaching highs. The trend intensity is 0 [18]. - **Aluminum**: Prices have slightly declined. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Alumina**: Prices are oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensity is 0 [21]. - **Platinum**: Prices are oscillating to find a direction. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Palladium**: Prices are maintaining an oscillating pattern. The trend intensity is 0 [24]. - **Nickel**: There is a tug - of - war between real - world pressure and the narrative of a cyclical shift, with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are dragging, and the market is mainly focused on Indonesia's policies. The trend intensity is 0 [28]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and market sentiment changes should be monitored. The trend intensity is 0 [32]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With silicon material production cuts, short positions can be established on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is significantly affected by news. The trend intensity is - 1 [36]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are fluctuating at high levels. The trend intensity is 0 [40]. - **Rebar**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment is causing fluctuations, and prices are oscillating strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Manganese Silicide**: Market sentiment is driving up prices, and the market is oscillating upwards. The trend intensity is 1 [48]. - **Coke**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [52]. - **Coking Coal**: Due to event developments, prices are oscillating at high levels. The trend intensity is 1 [53]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly. The trend intensity is 0 [56]. - **Para - Xylene**: Spot supply is sufficient, and prices are under short - term pressure, with a unilateral high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **PTA**: Prices are in a high - level oscillating market. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still medium - term pressure. The trend intensity is 0 [60]. - **Rubber**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are trending strongly. The trend intensity is 1 [72]. - **LLDPE**: The production of standard products continues to decline, and the basis is weakly stable. The trend intensity is 0 [75]. - **PP**: Macroeconomic sentiment is boosting, but fundamental improvements are limited. The trend intensity is 0 [78]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [80]. - **Pulp**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [85]. - **Glass**: The prices of raw sheets are stable. The trend intensity is 0 [90]. - **Methanol**: Prices are oscillating and falling. The trend intensity is 0 [94]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [99]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [103]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [107]. - **LPG**: The import cost is firm, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. The trend intensity is 0 [113]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising. The trend intensity is 0 [114]. - **PVC**: The rebound is unlikely to be sustained. The trend intensity is 0 [122]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices are oscillating in a narrow range, and there is still support at the bottom. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Volatility is decreasing, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to narrow. The trend intensity is 0 [126]. Agricultural Products - **Short - Fiber**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Bottle Chip**: The market is oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [141]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [144]. - **Pure Benzene**: Prices are mainly oscillating in the short term. The trend intensity is 0 [148]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macroeconomic sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Oil**: Prices are rebounding within a range, and attention should be paid to the spread opportunities between months. The trend intensity is 0 [153]. - **Soybean Meal**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Soybean**: Affected by market sentiment, it is advisable to wait and see. The trend intensity is 0 [159]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The trend intensity is 0 [162]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating within a range. The trend intensity is 0 [166]. - **Cotton**: Prices are fluctuating with the overall market sentiment. The trend intensity is 0 [170]. - **Egg**: Sentiment for the far - month contracts is weakening. The trend intensity is 0 [177]. - **Live Pig**: There is negative feedback in demand. The trend intensity is - 1 [180]. - **Peanut**: Prices are oscillating. The trend intensity is 0 [186]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The freight rate peak has emerged; for the 02 contract, wait and see, and for the 04 contract, short on price increases. The trend intensity is 0 [128].

能源化工日报 2026-01-08 2026/01/08 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 11.00 元/桶，跌幅 2.57%，报 416.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 34.00 元/吨，跌幅 1.38%，报 2437.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 67.00 元/吨，跌幅 2.29%，报 2860.00 元/吨。 富查伊拉港口油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 2.24 百万桶至 6.15 百万桶，环比去库 26.73%； 柴油库存累库 0.35 百万桶至 2.27 百万桶，环比累库 18.47%；燃料油库存去库 2.25 百万桶至 8.77 百万桶，环比去库 20.44%；总成品油去库 4.14 百万桶至 17.19 百万桶，环比去库 19.42%。 【策略观点】 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散，OPEC 虽做增产但量级极低，与此同时我们观测到 OPEC 供给仍未放量，因而油价短期仍然不宜过于看空。基于此我们维持对油价低多高抛的区间策略， 但当前油价仍需测试 OPEC 的出口挺价意愿，建议短期观望为主，等待油价下跌时 OPEC 出口下 滑做出验证。 2026/1/8 甲醇 ...

人民财讯1月7日电，国内期货主力合约收盘多数上涨。涨幅方面，焦煤涨近7%，焦炭涨超3%，纯碱、 玻璃涨超1%。跌幅方面，对二甲苯、甲醇、纸浆、原油跌超1%。 （原标题：国内期货主力合约收盘多数上涨 焦煤涨近7%） ...

| -2.39% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5776 | 44.30% | 硅铁 (SF603) | -138 | 5638 | 5900 | 5918 | -0.30% | 硅罐 (SM603) | -18 | 22.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5.43% | 169 | 67.00% | 3280 | 3111 | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2605) | -3 | -0.09% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3260 | 3263 | 17.40% | 热卷(HC2605) | | | | | | ୧୪ | 870 | 8.56% | 53.50% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 801 | 铁矿石 (12605) | ટે | 1.52% | 1680 ...

2026年01月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强20260107 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产回落，现货坚挺 | 8 | | PP：存量检修不多，基差被动走弱 | 9 | | 烧碱：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡偏强20260107 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：进口成本坚挺，关注负反馈兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：需求平稳，现货小幅探涨 | 22 | | PVC：短期偏强，但上方空间或有限 | 25 | | 燃料油：转入强势，短期易涨难跌 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨走势，外盘现货高低硫价差小幅收窄 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：02补贴水，远月关注补贴 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market is strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a record-long winning streak, and the stock index futures can be considered for trend-following operations [9][13]. - The bond market is under pressure, and the strategy for treasury bond futures is to maintain a flattening yield curve [15]. - Steel is expected to maintain a sideways trend, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term, and attention should be paid to the disturbances from coal mine production and safety inspections [19]. - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. - For soda ash, it is advisable to wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes [22]. - The short-term price of lithium carbonate will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations [24]. - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out-of-the-money call options on rallies; for polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25][26]. - For cotton, operate by buying on dips and rolling; for sugar, trade short-term in the low range [28][30]. - The near-term contracts of eggs are expected to have limited upside space, while the far-term contracts are supported by strong expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. - The apple futures may be strong, and the corn futures will be sideways to strong in the short term [34]. - The jujube market will maintain a sideways trend, and the short-term spot price of live pigs is likely to decline [36][38]. - The oil price will be sideways without new events, and the prices of fuel oil and plastics will follow the oil price [40][42][43]. - The rubber futures will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips; the synthetic rubber may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions [45][46]. - For methanol, consider a slightly long allocation for the far-term contracts; for caustic soda, maintain a long position [47][48]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and pay attention to the price bottom after the winter storage game [49]. - The polyester industry chain prices will follow the cost, and consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads [51]. - The LPG price has support, but the upside space is limited; the pulp futures are advisable to wait and see; the urea market will be strong in the short term [52][53][55]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - On January 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to 4083.67 points, achieving a 13 - day winning streak and hitting a new high in over 10 years [9]. - The 2026 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES 2026) kicked off on January 6. NVIDIA announced the full production of the new - generation AI chip platform Vera Rubin, and launched the world's first open - source VLA autonomous driving inference model Alpamayo [9]. - The People's Bank of China deployed key tasks for 2026, including using various monetary policy tools flexibly and efficiently, and strengthening financial market supervision [9]. - China decided to ban the export of all dual - use items to Japanese military users and military purposes [10]. - Four departments jointly issued a document to promote employees' cultural and sports consumption [10]. - Regulatory authorities surveyed some wealth management companies to address the bottlenecks for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [10]. - As of January 5, over 280 Hong Kong - listed companies released their 2025 fiscal year performance forecasts. The performance of non - ferrous metal and innovative drug companies was generally good, while some traditional industries faced pressure [10]. - The China Securities Index Company announced index adjustments, which will take effect after the market closes on January 9 [11]. - More than a dozen small and medium - sized banks adjusted their deposit interest rates, showing a differentiated pattern [11]. - Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor plans to produce 30,000 Atlas humanoid robots annually in the US starting in 2028 [11]. - A US senior official said that Trump's team is discussing various options to acquire Greenland [11]. - A large number of US military planes flew to Europe recently, and Iran's armed forces are on high alert [12]. - The US Secret Service launched a large - scale recruitment campaign to prepare for major events in 2028 [12]. Stock Index Futures - The A - share market continued to rise with enlarged trading volume. The three major PMI indexes all rose to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity. It is recommended to consider trend - following operations [13][14]. Treasury Bond Futures - The capital market is balanced and slightly loose, and the stock index is strong, putting pressure on the bond market. The strategy is to flatten the yield curve [15]. Black Metals Steel and Iron Ore - Policy has little impact on steel production. The demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is okay. The supply of steel mills is stable, and the inventory is high. The valuation of iron ore is reasonable, and the supply is strong while the demand is stable. Steel is expected to be sideways, and iron ore is recommended to be shorted on rallies [17][18]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may rise sideways in the short term. The supply of coking coal may shrink, and the potential negative feedback risk restricts the price increase. The inventory of upstream enterprises is increasing, and the downstream replenishment is slow [19][20]. Ferroalloys - The market is affected by emotions, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. It is advisable to short on rallies in the medium term, paying attention to position management [21]. Soda Ash and Glass - For soda ash, wait and see; for glass, try to go long after the market sentiment stabilizes. The supply of soda ash is at a high level, and new capacity may be put into production. The market expects cold - repair of glass production lines, and attention should be paid to the implementation of cold - repair [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Lithium Carbonate - The short - term price will be strong, but beware of significant fluctuations. The fundamentals are slightly weak, but the mine disturbances reduce the复产 expectation, and the long - term demand is good [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the opportunity to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies. For polysilicon, hold the previous long positions and continue to look for opportunities to buy on dips. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are in a loose balance, and the supply and demand of polysilicon are stable, with the anti -内卷 policy dominating the market [25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The short - term supply is loose, but the long - term supply is expected to shrink. It is advisable to buy on dips and roll. The international cotton price is affected by the planting area and export, and the domestic cotton price is affected by the pre - holiday replenishment and the decline in production before the Spring Festival [28][29]. Sugar - The domestic sugar market is in a season of strong supply and demand. It is recommended to trade short - term in the low range. The global sugar supply is in surplus, but some institutions have lowered the surplus forecast [30][31]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is rising seasonally before the Spring Festival, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose. The upside space of the near - term contracts is limited, and the far - term contracts are supported by expectations but also have limited upside [32][33]. Apples - The futures price may be strong. The出库 of apples is slightly lower than last year, the sales in the sales area are weak, and attention should be paid to the price changes in the sales area [34]. Corn - The short - term futures price will be sideways to strong. The price is affected by the farmers' selling sentiment and policy - related grain auctions [34][35]. Jujubes - The market will maintain a sideways trend. The prices in the production and sales areas are stable, and attention should be paid to the sales in the peak consumption season [36][37]. Live Pigs - The spot price is expected to decline in the middle of January. The futures main contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies. The second - fattening entry is active, and the supply pressure before the Spring Festival is increasing [38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The geopolitical trading is over, and the market focuses on fundamentals. The oil price is facing a serious supply surplus, and it will be sideways without new events. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [40]. Fuel Oil - The price follows the oil price. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The geopolitical situation in Iran affects the oil price, and the inventory is increasing [42]. Plastics - The supply pressure of polyolefins is large, and the demand is weak. The upstream is in heavy losses, which may support a small rebound. It is advisable to take a sideways view and beware of callback risks [43][44]. Rubber - The price will be sideways, and it is advisable to go long on dips. The raw material price in Thailand is rising, and the fundamentals have no obvious contradictions [45]. Synthetic Rubber - The price may be strong in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see if there are no positions. The price is driven by cost and market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the downstream procurement sentiment [46]. Methanol - The fundamentals are improving in the medium - long term. The far - term contracts can be considered for a slightly long allocation. The supply may be affected by the situation in Iran, and attention should be paid to the port inventory [47]. Caustic Soda - Maintain a long position. The impact of fundamentals on the futures is weak, and the spot price in Shandong is stable or declining [48]. Asphalt - The price is expected to fluctuate more significantly, and attention should be paid to the price bottom after the winter storage game. The supply of raw materials is uncertain due to geopolitics [49][50]. Polyester Industry Chain - The prices follow the cost. Consider the PX and PTA 5 - 9 inter - month positive spreads. The supply and demand of PX and PTA are expected to weaken, and the market for ethylene glycol and short - fiber will be sideways [51]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price has support, but the upside space is limited. The supply in the Middle East is tight, but the global supply is abundant. The demand in winter is strong, but the chemical end is under pressure [52]. Paper Pulp - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot trading is weak, the port inventory is increasing, and the valuation does not provide a good opportunity [53]. Logs - The fundamentals are slightly weak, and the price will be sideways. The domestic spot market is stable, and the port inventory is increasing [54]. Urea - The spot and futures markets are expected to be strong in the short term. The spot price is rising, and the futures price is also strong [55][56].