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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250827
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 01:59
2025年08月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 对二甲苯:供需紧平衡,趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:三房巷新装置投产,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:基本面偏中性,跟随宏观运行 | 6 | | 沥青:窄幅震荡 | 8 | | LLDPE:区间震荡 | 11 | | PP:中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:近月仓单和出口压制盘面 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:短期偏弱,中期震荡格局 | 18 | | 尿素:弱势运行 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:中期偏空 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:原油成本走弱 | 24 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,短期震荡运行 | 24 | | PVC:趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:新仓单出现,盘面开始翻空 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油:反转下跌,外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 28 | | 集运指数(欧线):或延续弱势震荡 | 29 | | 短纤:高位震荡 | ...
全品种价差日报-20250826
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 05:04
叶倩宁 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月26日 | 122 | 2.07%! | 47.30% | 硅锰(SM601) | 2898 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 6020 | 172 | 3310 | 68.10% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 5.48% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3138 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 35.50% | 3430 | 41 | 1.21% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3389 | ਦੇਰੇ | 7.49% | 48.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 846 | 787 | 铁矿石 (12601) | | | | | | 1624 | 1736 | -112 | -6.44% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7 ...
能源化工期权策略早报-20250826
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:47
能源化工期权 2025-08-26 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要:能源类:原油、LPG;聚烯烃类期权:聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯;聚酯类期 权:对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片;碱化工类:烧碱、纯碱;其他能源化工类:橡胶等。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
五矿期货文字早评-20250826
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-26 01:27
文字早评 2025/08/26 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 消息面: 1、国家发改委主任郑栅洁主持召开座谈会,听取"十五五"时期扩内需稳就业意见建议。郑栅洁表示, 希望企业增强信心、抓住机遇,充分利用国内国际两个市场两种资源,有序开展市场竞争,为扩内需、 稳就业多作贡献; 2、相关部门近期将会发放卫星互联网牌照。专家表示,牌照的发放,意味着我国卫星互联网商业运营 迈出第一步; 3、沪指 3900 点在望,两市 ETF 交投火爆,收盘成交额达到 5558.48 亿元。全市场 ETF 规模前一个交易 日已经达到 4.97 万亿,即将突破 5 万亿元; 4、百济神州:RoyaltyPharma 同意在交割时支付 8.85 亿美元 购买单克隆抗体 Imdelltra 在中国以外 地区的特许权使用费。 期指基差比例: IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季:0.12%/0.05%/-0.26%/-0.60%; IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.61%/-1.08%/-2.40%/-4.07%; IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季:-0.88%/-1.51%/-2.88%/-4.94%; IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季:0.07%/0.1 ...
全品种价差日报-20250825
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 15:05
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5648, up 6 (0.11%) from the previous day, with a historical quantile of 59.40%. The spot price is 5832, with a basis of 188 and a basis rate of 3.22% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 6020, with a spot price of 6517, a basis of 497, and a basis rate of 8.25% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2730, up 232 (9.29%), with a historical quantile of 93.50%. The spot price is 2498 [1] - Rebar (RB2510): Futures price is 3280, up 161 (5.16%), with a historical quantile of 66.20%. The spot price is 3119 [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510): Futures price is 3400, up 39 (1.16%), with a historical quantile of 34.60%. The spot price is 3361 [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 832, up 62 (8.05%), with a historical quantile of 50.10%. The spot price is 770 [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1624, down 54 (3.24%), with a historical quantile of 32.01%. The spot price is 1679 [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1145, down 17 (1.46%), with a historical quantile of 22.20%. The spot price is 1162 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Futures price is 78830, up 140 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 59.79%. The spot price is 78690 [1] - Aluminum (AL2510): Futures price is 20710, up 80 (0.39%), with a historical quantile of 72.50%. The spot price is 20630 [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 3245, up 107 (3.41%), with a historical quantile of 61.23%. The spot price is 3138 [1] - Zinc (ZN2510): Futures price is 22130, down 145 (0.65%), with a historical quantile of 19.16%. The spot price is 22275 [1] - Tin (SN2509): Futures price is 266000, up 70 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 49.79%. The spot price is 265930 [1] - Nickel (NISE10): Futures price is 119650, up 40 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 57.29%. The spot price is 119610 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2510): Information about price changes and historical quantiles is not clearly presented in a standard format, but the spot price is 13170 and the futures price is 12750 [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 83900, up 4940 (6.26%), with a historical quantile of 90.52%. The spot price is 78960 [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Futures price is 771.6, down 1.8 (0.23%), with a historical quantile of 47.30%. The spot price is 773.4 [1] - Silver (AG2510): Futures price is 9182.0, down 10.0 (0.11%), with a historical quantile of 64.90%. The spot price is 9192.0 [1] Agricultural Products - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2240, up 65 (2.99%), with a historical quantile of 77.10%. The spot price is 2175 [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 6030, up 360 (6.35%), with a historical quantile of 66.00%. The spot price is 5670 [1] - Soybean Meal (M2601): Futures price is 2980, down 108 (3.50%), with a historical quantile of 18.80%. The spot price is 3088 [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2601): Futures price is 8540, up 82 (0.97%), with a historical quantile of 9.40%. The spot price is 8458 [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9490, down 102 (1.06%), with a historical quantile of 4.60%. The spot price is 9592 [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2540, down 3 (0.12%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 2543 [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol601): Futures price is 10010, up 120 (1.21%), with a historical quantile of 48.30%. The spot price is 9890 [1] - Eggs (JD2510): Futures price is 3220, up 187 (6.17%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 3033 [1] - Apples (AP510): Futures price is 8600, up 506 (6.25%), with a historical quantile of 40.70%. The spot price is 8094 [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 14030, up 1075 (7.66%), with a historical quantile of 69.50%. The spot price is 12955 [1] Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX511): Futures price is 6966, up 78.9 (1.13%), with a historical quantile of 47.40%. The spot price is 7044.9 [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510): Futures price is 6614, down 14 (0.21%), with a historical quantile of 40.10%. The spot price is 6600 [1] - Styrene (EB2510): Futures price is 7378, down 3 (0.04%), with a historical quantile of 25.60%. The spot price is 7375 [1] - Urea (UR601): Futures price is 1739, up 1 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 12.40%. The spot price is 1740 [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 7038, up 12 (0.17%), with a historical quantile of 26.10%. The spot price is 7050 [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4740, down 279 (5.56%), with a historical quantile of 10.00%. The spot price is 5019 [1] - LPG (PG2510): Futures price is 4478, up 91 (2.07%), with a historical quantile of 36.50%. The spot price is 4387 [1] - Asphalt (BU2510): Futures price is 3483, up 47 (1.35%), with a historical quantile of 61.50%. The spot price is 3530 [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2510): Futures price is 11660, up 240 (2.06%), with a historical quantile of 55.20%. The spot price is 11900 [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1173, down 113 (9.66%), with a historical quantile of 25.00%. The spot price is 1060 [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1326, down 100 (8.16%), with a historical quantile of 5.88%. The spot price is 1226 [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4868, down 3 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 51.30%. The spot price is 4865 [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4474, up 36 (0.80%), with a historical quantile of 71.90%. The spot price is 4510 [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2405, down 110 (4.57%), with a historical quantile of 10.20%. The spot price is 2295 [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7380, down 90 (1.22%), with a historical quantile of 4.20%. The spot price is 7290 [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15625, down 975 (6.66%), with a historical quantile of 32.29%. The spot price is 14650 [1] Others - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 9250, up 505 (5.77%), with a historical quantile of 34.75%. The spot price is 8745 [1] - Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - IC2509.CFE: Futures price is 6822.8, down 12.4 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 64.70% [1] - IH2509.CFE: Futures price is 2942.0, up 13.4 (0.46%), with a historical quantile of 98.30% [1] - IM2509.CFE: Futures price is 7348.6, down 14.3 (0.20%), with a historical quantile of 95.30% [1] - 10 - Year Bond (T2509): Futures price is 107.66, up 0.57 (0.53%), with a historical quantile of 75.80% [1] - 2 - Year Bond (TS2509): Futures price is 100.26, up 0.03 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 35.30% [1] - 30 - Year Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 131.64, up 1.01 (0.87%), with a historical quantile of 98.50% [1] - 5 - Year Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 99.20, up 0.10 (0.10%), with a historical quantile of 41.90% [1]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20250825
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:08
2025年08月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期偏强,中期仍在区间震荡 | 6 | | 沥青:油价稍偏强,裂解愈回落 | 8 | | LLDPE:短期偏强震荡 | 11 | | PP:短线反弹,中期震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱:偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇:短期震荡有支撑 | 17 | | 尿素:弱势运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯:短期偏强,中期偏空 | 21 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG:进口成本存支撑,但供需缺乏明显改善 | 23 | | 丙烯:供需紧平衡,价格偏强整理 | 23 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油:涨势明显,短期强势延续 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油:相对高硫偏弱,外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 27 | | 集运指数(欧线):弱势震荡 | ...
对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套,PTA:趋势偏强,正套,MEG:趋势偏强
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 05:07
对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套 PTA:趋势偏强,正套 MEG:趋势偏强 期 货 研 究 2025 年 08 月 25 日 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6966 4868 4474 6614 493.6 涨跌 6958 8 1 0 2.7 涨跌幅 0.11% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00% 0.55% 月差 PX9-1 PTA9-1 MEG9-1 PF9-1 SC9-10 昨日收盘价 138 -20 -54 -58 -6.6 前日收盘价 162 -14 -54 -42 -6.2 涨跌 -24 -6 0 -16 -0.4 现货 PX CFR 中国(美 金/吨) PTA 华东(元/吨) MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 857.33 4865 4512 587 68.23 前日价格 852.33 4830 4518 584.5 68.12 涨跌 5 35 -6 2.5 0.1 现货加工费 PX-石脑油价差 PTA 加工费 短纤加工费 瓶片加工费 MOPJ 石脑油-迪 拜原油价差 昨 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250822
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:49
2025年08月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 对二甲苯:趋势偏强,正套 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA:装置计划外停车,正套 | 2 | | MEG:趋势偏强 | 2 | | 橡胶:震荡运行 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:区间运行 | 6 | | 沥青:原油略强,裂解愈弱 | 8 | | LLDPE:区间震荡 | 11 | | PP:趋势偏弱,但低位追空要谨慎 | 12 | | 烧碱:偏多对待 | 13 | | 纸浆:震荡运行 | 15 | | 玻璃:原片价格平稳 | 17 | | 甲醇:区间震荡运行 | 18 | | 尿素:仍在区间震荡内,但上方压力逐步增加 | 20 | | 苯乙烯:压缩利润 | 22 | | 纯碱:现货市场变化不大 | 23 | | LPG:宏观情绪溢价支撑,进口成本预期上涨 | 24 | | 丙烯:供需收紧,价格存支撑 | 24 | | PVC:短期震荡,趋势仍有压力 | 27 | | 燃料油:震荡走势为主,短线转强 | 28 | | 低硫燃料油:偏弱怕盘整,外盘现货高低硫价差小幅反弹 | 28 | | 集运指数(欧 ...
全品种价差日报-20250821
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 05:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5728, the futures price is 5622, the basis is 106, and the basis rate is 1.89% with a historical quantile of 70.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 6020, the futures price is 5836, the basis is 184, and the basis rate is 3.15% with a historical quantile of 56.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3402, the futures price is 3290, the basis is 112, and the basis rate is 5.04% with a historical quantile of 65.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3402, the basis is 28, and the basis rate is 0.82% with a historical quantile of 29.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price is 826, the futures price is 769, the basis is 57, and the basis rate is 7.35% with a historical quantile of 47.10% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1678, the futures price is 1624, the basis is 54, and the basis rate is 3.21% with a historical quantile of 32.64% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1163, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 1.03% with a historical quantile of 27.90% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 79100, the futures price is 78890, the basis is 210, and the basis rate is 0.27% with a historical quantile of 67.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The spot price is 20590, the futures price is 20545, the basis is 45, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 63.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 3245, the futures price is 3120, the basis is 125, and the basis rate is 4.01% with a historical quantile of 66.07% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The spot price is 22205, the futures price is 22130, the basis is 75, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 33.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 268090, the futures price is 266200, the basis is 1890, and the basis rate is 0.70% with a historical quantile of 10.41% [1] - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The spot price is 120825, the futures price is 120330, the basis is 495, and the basis rate is 0.41% with a historical quantile of 80.00% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: The spot price is 13270, the futures price is 12885, the basis is 385, and the basis rate is 2.99% with a historical quantile of 77.68% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 87540, the futures price is 85700, the basis is 1840, and the basis rate is 2.10% with a historical quantile of 27.31% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (212511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8390, the basis is 860, and the basis rate is 10.25% with a historical quantile of 57.57% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 772.7, the futures price is 769.8, the basis is 2.9, and the basis rate is 0.37% with a historical quantile of 24.00% [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9042.0, the futures price is 9022.0, the basis is 20.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 3160.0, the futures price is 2980, the basis is 180.0, and the basis rate is 5.70% with a historical quantile of 4.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8414.0, the basis is 86.0, and the basis rate is 1.02% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9554.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 54.0, and the basis rate is 0.57% with a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2627.0, the futures price is 2610, the basis is 17.0, and the basis rate is 0.65% with a historical quantile of 44.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The spot price is 9950, the futures price is 9828.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.24% with a historical quantile of 49.40% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The spot price is 2260, the futures price is 2170.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 4.15% with a historical quantile of 86.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The spot price is 2730, the futures price is 2489.0, the basis is 241.0, and the basis rate is 9.68% with a historical quantile of 94.60% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The spot price is 13850, the futures price is 13775.0, the basis is 75.0, and the basis rate is 0.54% with a historical quantile of 44.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The spot price is 3310, the futures price is 3072.0, the basis is 238.0, and the basis rate is 7.75% with a historical quantile of 51.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 15080, the futures price is 14055.0, the basis is 1025.0, and the basis rate is 7.29% with a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5676.0, the basis is 354.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 6.65% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8064.0, the basis is 536.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 11530.0, the futures price is 8300, the basis is 3230.0, and the basis rate is 28.01% with a historical quantile of 3.00% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: The spot price is 6894.8, the futures price is 6844.0, the basis is 50.8, and the basis rate is 0.74% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4778.0, the futures price is 4705.0, the basis is 73.0, and the basis rate is 1.53% with a historical quantile of 25.40% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4515.0, the futures price is 4477.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.85% with a historical quantile of 72.90% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6504.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 14.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **Styrene (EB2510)**: The spot price is 7285.0, the futures price is 7275.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.14% with a historical quantile of 24.80% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2424.0, the futures price is 2300.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 5.12% with a historical quantile of 7.40% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1776.0, the futures price is 1770.0, the basis is - 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 7347.0, the futures price is 7255.0, the basis is 92.0, and the basis rate is 1.25% with a historical quantile of 4.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 7056.0, the futures price is 7050.0, the basis is 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.09% with a historical quantile of 21.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 5008.0, the futures price is 4720.0, the basis is 288.0, and the basis rate is 5.75% with a historical quantile of 8.70% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2655.0, the futures price is 2625.0, the basis is 30.0, and the basis rate is 1.13% with a historical quantile of 43.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2510)**: The spot price is 4478.0, the futures price is 4354.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 2.85% with a historical quantile of 37.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3530.0, the futures price is 3454.0, the basis is 76.0, and the basis rate is 2.20% with a historical quantile of 66.80% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: The spot price is 11900.0, the futures price is 11715.0, the basis is 185.0, and the basis rate is 1.58% with a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The spot price is 1162.0, the futures price is 1072.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 8.40% with a historical quantile of 34.03% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1209.0, the futures price is 1309.0, the basis is - 100.0, and the basis rate is 8.27% with a historical quantile of 5.88% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15675.0, the futures price is 14600.0, the basis is 1075.0, and the basis rate is 7.36% with a historical quantile of 23.75% [1] Stock Index Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4271.4, the futures price is 4270.0, the basis is - 1.4, and the basis rate is 0.03% with a historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2851.2, the futures price is 2847.0, the basis is 4.2, and the basis rate is 0.15% with a historical quantile of 80.70% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6728.1, the futures price is 6695.2, the basis is - 32.9, and the basis rate is 0.49% with a historical quantile of 37.40% [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 7305.5, the futures price is 7276.0, the basis is - 29.5, and the basis rate is 0.40% with a historical quantile of 46.90% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.32, the futures price is 100.26, the basis is 0.02, and the basis rate is 0.02% with a historical quantile of 34.10% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.45, the futures price is 100.48, the basis is 0.06, and the basis rate is 0.06% with a historical quantile of 36.80% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 107.94, the futures price is 100.37, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.05% with a historical quantile of 21.70% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 131.12, the futures price is 116.24, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:能源化工-20250821
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 01:50
Report Overview - The report is the Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report on August 21, 2025, covering various energy and chemical products [1]. 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual product ratings: - Bullish: p-Xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Caustic Soda [2][4][11][42] - Bearish: Glass, Soda Ash [52][65] - Neutral: Synthetic Rubber, Asphalt, LLDPE, PP, Pulp, Methanol, Urea, Styrene, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel Oil, Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][15][18][34][38][47][54][59][62][67][79][82] - Hold 10 short positions (discretionary): Container Shipping Index (European Line) [2] 2. Core Views - **p-Xylene, PTA, MEG**: p-Xylene has cost support and improving demand, PTA has strong cost support and improving terminal demand, and MEG has reduced imports and inventory, all expected to be bullish in the short term [4][9][10]. - **Rubber**: It shows a volatile and bullish trend, with futures prices rising and inventory decreasing [11][12][14]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increased butadiene supply and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [15][17]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and bearish, with a decline in cracking spread, increasing production in September, and decreasing capacity utilization [18][32]. - **LLDPE**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term influence from industry sentiment, decreasing maintenance in August, and improving demand in the future [34][35]. - **PP**: It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious due to uncertain cost and policy factors [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: It should be treated bullishly, with increasing demand from alumina and export support, despite potential supply limitations [42][44]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to trade in a range, with weak demand and limited support from the paper market [47][48]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable, with general market trading and limited improvement in downstream demand [51][52]. - **Methanol**: It is expected to trade within a range, with short-term pressure from increasing port inventory and mid-term support from policies and fundamentals [54][57][58]. - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term, with increasing inventory and support from export information [59][60][61]. - **Styrene**: It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range, with downstream inventory at a medium-high level and limited replenishment power [62][63]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak market trends, stable production, and general downstream demand [65]. - **LPG, Propylene**: They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes, and the PDH operating rate has increased [67]. - **PVC**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure, due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory [79]. - **Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night with reduced short - term fluctuations, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly with a falling high - low sulfur spread [82]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions discretionarily, with declining European shipping rates [84]. 3. Summary by Product p-Xylene, PTA, MEG - **p-Xylene**: Yesterday's closing price was 6844, up 1.03%. PX9 - 1 closed at 88. The spot price was 838 dollars/ton, up 2.83 dollars. Overnight crude oil inventory decreased, and PX is expected to rebound with cost support and improving demand. Pay attention to the 11 - 01 positive spread [5][9]. - **PTA**: Yesterday's closing price was 4778, up 0.93%. PTA9 - 1 closed at - 56. The spot price was stable at 4690 yuan/ton. It has strong cost support, and the 9 - 1 reverse spread can be held [5][8][10]. - **MEG**: Yesterday's closing price was 4477, up 1.20%. MEG9 - 1 closed at - 50. The spot price was 4502 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. Korean petrochemicals will cut capacity, and MEG is expected to be bullish in the short term with reduced imports and inventory. The 9 - 1 spread can be operated in the - 50 - 0 range [5][8][10]. Rubber - Yesterday's day - session closing price was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, and the night - session closing price was 15,755 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - The day - session closing price of butadiene rubber was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The inventory of domestic high - cis butadiene rubber increased slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [15]. Asphalt - BU2509 closed at 3,493 yuan/ton, up 0.09%, and BU2510 closed at 3,454 yuan/ton, up 0.03%. The refinery operating rate decreased to 35.61%. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [18]. LLDPE - L2601 closed at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.37%. The market price continued to decline slightly. It is expected to trade within a range [34]. PP - PP2601 closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 0.40%. The market price was weak. It shows a weak trend, but shorting at low levels should be cautious [38][39]. Caustic Soda - The 11 - contract futures price was 2698 yuan/ton, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 850 yuan/ton. It should be treated bullishly due to increasing demand [42][44]. Pulp - The day - session closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,136 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The demand from the paper market was weak. It is expected to trade in a range [48]. Glass - FG601 closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 4.36%. The spot price was stable with general trading. It shows a bearish trend [52]. Methanol - The main contract closed at 2,424 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. The port inventory increased. It is expected to trade within a range [55][57]. Urea - The closing price was 1,776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan. The enterprise inventory increased. It is expected to be volatile with support in the short term [59][60]. Styrene - The 2509 contract closed at 7,261 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The downstream inventory was at a medium - high level. It is expected to compress profits and trade in a range [62][63]. Soda Ash - SA2601 closed at 1,309 yuan/ton, down 5.01%. The spot market was weak. It is expected to be weak and volatile [65]. LPG, Propylene - PG2509 closed at 3,890 yuan/ton, up 0.99%, and PL2601 closed at 6,446 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The PDH operating rate increased. They are supported by macro - sentiment premiums with limited fundamental changes [67]. PVC - The 01 - contract futures price was 5008 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China was 4720 yuan/ton. It is expected to be volatile in the short term with continuous pressure [79]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - FU2510 closed at 2,718 yuan/ton, up 0.41%, and LU2510 closed at 3,446 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. Fuel oil strengthens slightly at night, and low - sulfur fuel oil consolidates narrowly [82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - EC2510 closed at 1,355.0, down 1.33%. The European shipping rates declined. Hold 10 short positions discretionarily [84].