| 62 | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 1.14% | 62.90% | 5478 | 5416 | 2.49% | 140 | 5770 | 51.50% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰 (SM601) | 5630 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 151 | 4.87% | 3250 | 63.30% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3099 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -14 | 3290 | -0.42% | 热卷 (HC2601) | 3304 | 12.30% | | | | | | 62 | 797 | 7.716% | 铁矿石 (12601) | 850 | 49.00% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 5 | 0.32% | 焦炭 (J2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After recent continuous declines, the index is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology growth is still the market's main line. The medium - to long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a situation of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, maintaining an overall volatile trend. Pay attention to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly increased. The overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue, and the further driving force will be released in December. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and macro - economic conditions, showing different trends of volatility, strength, or weakness. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: Six ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued a document to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand; the Cyberspace Administration of China strengthened the management of financial "self - media" and MCN accounts; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the listing benchmark prices of platinum and palladium futures; US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: After recent declines, the index may stabilize in the short - term. The long - term strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts decreased. The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December; the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds were lower than the ChinaBond valuations. The central bank conducted 2133 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 972 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic data in October was weak, and the year - end social financing growth rate may remain weak. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the fourth quarter, and pay attention to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Shanghai gold rose 0.37%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73%. COMEX gold and silver prices are also provided. A Fed governor made dovish remarks, and the market expects an 82.9% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [8]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has increased. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: Overnight, US stocks rose, and the offshore RMB strengthened. LME copper prices increased, and domestic copper inventories and premiums showed certain changes [11]. - **Strategy**: Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the probability of a December interest - rate cut. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and downstream demand is strong. Copper prices are expected to oscillate strongly [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: Supported by overseas supply disruption news, aluminum prices rose. LME and domestic aluminum inventories and premiums changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Global aluminum inventories are low, and supply disruptions support prices. Although the downstream is entering the off - season, aluminum prices may strengthen after adjustment [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai zinc index prices decreased slightly. LME and domestic zinc inventories and basis are provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Zinc ore imports decreased in October, and the supply of zinc ore is tight during the winter stockpiling period. However, in the long - term, the zinc industry is still in an over - supply cycle. Zinc prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: On Wednesday, Shanghai lead index prices rose slightly. LME and domestic lead inventories and basis are provided [17]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing, while the demand for lead - acid batteries is declining. Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, nickel prices rebounded. Spot prices and cost factors are provided [18]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals of nickel are under pressure. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase short or bottom - fish. Wait for the nickel - iron price to stabilize [18]. Tin - **Market News**: On November 26, Shanghai tin prices rose. Supply, demand, and inventory information are provided [19]. - **Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand of tin is in a tight balance. Considering the high - price suppression of consumption and the marginal improvement of ore shortages, tin prices are expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, while the futures price of LC2605 decreased [21]. - **Strategy**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts bullish sentiment, but there are concerns about off - season demand. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Alumina - **Market News**: On November 26, the alumina index decreased. Information on basis, overseas prices, and inventory is provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is over - supplied. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices, raw material prices, and inventory information are provided [24]. - **Strategy**: The spot market price rose slightly, but the demand is affected by the real - estate market. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy oscillated. Information on contract prices, inventory, and demand is provided [26]. - **Strategy**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy provides support, and the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices [27]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, registered warrants, and inventory is provided [29]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in the off - season, and the export is affected by anti - dumping duties. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term but may improve with policy implementation [30]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Yesterday, the iron - ore main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and inventory is provided [31]. - **Strategy**: Overseas iron - ore shipments decreased, and the demand for iron ore is stable. The overall inventory is high, and the price is expected to oscillate [32]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the glass main contract price rose slightly. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [33]. - **Strategy**: The supply of glass may decrease in December, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [34]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market News**: On Wednesday, the soda - ash main contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, inventory, and positions is provided [35]. - **Strategy**: The supply of soda ash is in excess, and the demand is divided. The price is expected to be weak [35]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: On November 26, the prices of manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and price trends is provided [36]. - **Strategy**: The market risk appetite has weakened, and the prices of ferrous alloys have decreased. However, with the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, there may be a turning point. It is recommended to pay attention to market sentiment [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the industrial - silicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [40]. - **Strategy**: The production of industrial silicon is decreasing, and the demand is affected by the polysilicon and organic - silicon industries. The price is expected to oscillate [41]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market News**: Yesterday, the polysilicon main contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and production is provided [43]. - **Strategy**: The production of polysilicon is decreasing, and the supply - demand pattern may improve marginally. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to platform company progress and price feedback [44]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices rebounded. Thailand's rubber - producing areas were affected by floods, and the inventory of exchange - traded RU was low. The opinions of bulls and bears are different [46]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to take a bullish short - term strategy and partially build positions for hedging [50]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: INE crude - oil futures prices decreased. The inventory of refined oil products in the Fujairah port increased [51]. - **Strategy**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see and test OPEC's export price - support willingness [52]. Methanol - **Market News**: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract increased. Information on basis and spread is provided [53]. - **Strategy**: The positive impact of Iranian device shutdowns is being realized, but the near - term high - inventory pattern remains. It is recommended to wait and see [53]. Urea - **Market News**: The prices of urea in different regions and the main contract changed. Information on basis and spread is provided [54]. - **Strategy**: The urea price is oscillating at the bottom. The supply is high, and the demand has improved. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The spot price of pure benzene was unchanged, and the futures price of styrene rose. Information on basis, spread, and supply - demand is provided [56]. - **Strategy**: The supply of styrene is under pressure, but the demand is in the seasonal peak. The price may stop falling [57]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC01 contract price decreased. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [58]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [60]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The EG01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [61]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decrease in December, but the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [62]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [63]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA may increase, and the demand is affected by inventory and the off - season. The processing fee has limited upward space [64]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: The PX01 contract price rose. Information on spot prices, basis, and supply - demand is provided [65]. - **Strategy**: The load of PX is high, and the downstream PTA is in maintenance. PX may accumulate inventory in November, and the valuation may be adjusted downward [66]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PE decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [67]. - **Strategy**: The price of PE is expected to be volatile at a low level. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is in the seasonal peak [68]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The futures and spot prices of PP decreased. Information on basis, inventory, and supply - demand is provided [69]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PP is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal low. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [70]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market News**: Yesterday, domestic hog prices mostly decreased. The supply is high, and the demand is weak [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of hogs is under pressure, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short near - month contracts or conduct reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - **Market News**: Yesterday, the national egg prices were mostly stable. The supply and demand are in a stalemate [74]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has not followed the futures price increase. The price is expected to be oscillating in the short - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: CBOT soybean prices rose. The domestic soybean inventory is high, and the meal inventory is large [76]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply has decreased, and the import cost has a bottom support. The meal price is expected to oscillate [77]. Oils - **Market News**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production increased. The domestic oil inventory may decrease in the future [78]. - **Strategy**: The high production of palm oil suppresses the price. It is recommended to take an oscillating view and turn bullish if production decreases [79]. Sugar - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price oscillated. The production of sugar in Brazil and India is expected to increase [81]. - **Strategy**: The global sugar supply is expected to be in excess, and the international sugar price may be weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [82]. Cotton - **Market News**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated. The global cotton production is expected to increase [83]. - **Strategy**: The demand for cotton is not too bad after the peak season, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [84].

Group 1 - Southbound funds increased their holdings in Shanghai Petrochemical Company (00338.HK) by 2.058 million shares on November 26, 2025, representing a change of 0.19% [1][2] - Over the past 5 trading days, there were 3 days of net increases in holdings, totaling 6.286 million shares [1][2] - In the last 20 trading days, there were 12 days of net increases, accumulating to 10.022 million shares [1][2] Group 2 - As of now, southbound funds hold 1.074 billion shares of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, accounting for 33.4% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1][2] - The company operates primarily in the petrochemical sector, with three main divisions: refining products, chemical products, and petrochemical product trading [2]

| 硅铁(SF603) | 1.10% | 62.50% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 5448 | 60 | 5508 | 2.73% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 5790 | 154 | 5636 | 54.10% | 硅锰(SM601) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 144 | 4.64% | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3250 | 61.30% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3106 | 热卷 (HC2601) | -9 | 3300 | -027% | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 3309 | 14.10% | | | | | | 54.20% | 863 | 794 | ୧୦ | 8.71% | 铁矿石 (12601) | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | -114% | -19 | 52.99% | ...

2025年11月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：短期不追高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 | 2 | | MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持，多MEG空PX | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏弱 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：估值区间内弱势运行 | 7 | | 沥青：窄幅震荡 | 9 | | LLDPE：进口报盘或有减少，裂解负荷有扰动 | 11 | | PP：短期不追空，中期趋势仍有压力 | 12 | | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：估值低位反弹 | 17 | | 尿素：震荡承压 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | 23 | | 丙烯：上涨驱动转弱，成本支撑偏强 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：震荡走势延续，短期或强于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：转入调整，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时企稳 | 27 | | 短纤：短期震荡市 | ...

| 52 | 0.95% | 折算价:72硅铁合格块:内蒙-天津仓单 | 硅铁 (SF603) | 61.60% | 5508 | 5456 | 160 | 2.84% | 5790 | 55.10% | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 硅锰 (SM601) | 5630 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 151 | 4.89% | HRB40020mm:上海 | 3240 | 63.40% | 螺纹钢 (RB2601) | 3089 | -5 | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | -0.15% | 3290 | 3562 | 15.90% | 热卷 (HC2601) | | | | | | 67 | 8.51% | 791 | 52.80% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF)：淡水河谷:日照港 | 铁矿石 (12601) | 858 | -8 | -0. $1% | 焦炭 (J2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the document Core Views - The report offers trading suggestions and trend analyses for various energy - chemical futures including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., based on their fundamentals, market news, and price trends [2][4][8] - Each product has a unique trend intensity, which reflects the strength of its market trend [8][12][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Asian PX price rose slightly, PXN reached 260 USD/ton. Suggest to exit long positions, short PXN, go long MEG and short PX. Pay attention to month - spread reverse arbitrage [4][6][8] - **PTA**: Operating rate declined, overall in a tight - balance but with a recent inventory build - up. Valuation is high, recommend exiting long positions [4][8][9] - **MEG**: Supply is expected to contract, the supply - demand balance sheet is improving. Suggest to stop loss on short positions and reverse - arbitrage positions, and go long MEG and short PX [8][9][10] Rubber - Rubber is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The trading volume decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased. The price of natural rubber raw materials remained high due to rain affecting tapping [11][12][14] Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to run weakly within the valuation range. The domestic butadiene market is weak, and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber has increased slightly. The short - and medium - term fundamentals of butadiene are bearish [15][16][17] Asphalt - Asphalt's operating rate increased significantly, and the inventory continued to decline. The weekly output increased, and the inventory in both refineries and social warehouses decreased [18][23][24] LLDPE - LLDPE's import offers may decrease, and the cracking load is disturbed. The futures price rebounded slightly, and the basis was gradually repaired. The supply - demand pressure in the medium - term needs attention [25][26] PP - PP should not be shorted in the short - term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term. The supply is high, and the demand peak has passed. The low profit restricts the downward space [29][30][31] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda still faces pressure. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand is weak. The cost support is limited [33][35][36] Pulp - Pulp is expected to move in a sideways pattern. The futures price fluctuated slightly, the basis of some varieties weakened, and the supply pressure persisted while the demand was flat [38][39][41] Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price rose, the basis weakened, and the cost support increased, but the processing factory orders were average [44][45] Methanol - Methanol rebounded from a low - valuation level. The price increased with the decline of short positions in the 01 contract. The supply - demand situation is still under pressure in the medium - term [47][49][50] Urea - Urea is expected to have a sideways correction. The price fluctuated, and the inventory decreased slightly. The supply pressure is large, but the downward driving force is weakened by policies [51][53][54] Styrene - Styrene is expected to move sideways in the short - term. The pure benzene market is under pressure due to inventory build - up and weak terminal demand. The rebound of styrene is also restricted [55][56] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The production is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for low - price rigid needs. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term [58][59] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The downstream demand is differentiated, and attention should be paid to cost changes. The futures price fluctuated, and the operating rates of related industries changed slightly [61][62][66] - **Propylene**: The upward driving force is weakening, but the cost support is strong. The price difference between propylene and related contracts changed [62][66] PVC - PVC should not be shorted, and it is expected to move in a low - level sideways pattern. The futures price is at a historical low, and some devices may cut production due to losses, but the impact may be limited in the short - term [69][70] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is expected to move in a narrow range and may be stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term [72] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is still weak, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [72] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to have a short - term restorative rebound. The futures price fluctuated, and the freight rate index of European routes increased [74]

能源化工期权 2025-11-25 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on various commodities and financial futures, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and historical quantiles, covering metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. Summary by Category Metals - **Ferrous Metals**: The prices of silicon iron, silicon manganese, rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, and coking coal show different degrees of change. For example, the price of silicon iron (SF603) has a basis rate of 66.40%, and the price of rebar (RB2601) has increased by 5.33% [1]. - **Non-ferrous Metals**: The prices of copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, and other non-ferrous metals also fluctuate. For instance, the price of copper (CU2601) has a basis rate of 0.18%, and the price of aluminum (AL2601) has a basis rate of 4.51% [1]. Energy and Chemicals - The prices of energy and chemical products such as crude oil, natural gas, PTA, ethylene glycol, and methanol show different trends. For example, the price of PTA (TA601) has a basis rate of 0.97%, and the price of ethylene glycol (EG2601) has a basis rate of 0.74% [1]. Agricultural Products - The prices of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, wheat, cotton, and sugar also change. For instance, the price of soybean meal (M2601) has a basis rate of 2.44%, and the price of corn (C2601) has a basis rate of 1.14% [1]. Financial Futures - The prices of stock index futures and bond futures show different degrees of change. For example, the price of IF2512.CFE has a basis rate of -0.32%, and the price of 2-year bond futures (TS2512) has a basis rate of 0.03% [1].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 11 月 24 日 对二甲苯：短期不追高 PTA：单边震荡市，不追高 MEG：供需格局改善，空单减持 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 所 PX PTA MEG 基本面数据 期货 PX 主力 PTA 主力 MEG 主力 PF 主力 SC 主力 昨日收盘价 6750 4666 3808 6162 447.4 涨跌 -80 -30 -14 -58 -8.1 涨跌幅 -1.17% -0.64% -0.37% -0.93% -1.78% 月差 PX1-5 PTA1-5 MEG1-5 PF12-1 SC11-12 昨日收盘价 -20 -44 -93 -50 2.8 前日收盘价 -12 -48 -104 -50 3.3 涨跌 -8 4 11 0 -0.5 现货 PX CFR 中国（美 金/吨） PTA 华东（元/吨） MEG 现货 石脑油 MOPJ Dated 布伦特 (美 金/桶) 昨日价格 823.67 4603 3848 561.88 62.38 前日价格 832.67 4633 3876 573.12 63.53 涨跌 -9 -30 ...