2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡偏强 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：短期震荡运行 | 7 | | 沥青：跟随油价偏弱 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：弱势运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡为主，不追空 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：成本端偏弱，关注低位反弹风险 | 23 | | 丙烯：供需紧平衡，现货价格存支撑 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：弱势仍在，短线进入调整 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：暂时弱于高硫，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：2-4正套轻仓入场 | 28 | | 短纤：短期低 ...

2025年10月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：中期仍偏弱 | 2 | | MEG：1-5月差反套 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：震荡承压 | 7 | | 沥青：华南独累库，美委再生波 | 9 | | LLDPE：中期震荡行情 | 11 | | PP：中期或是震荡市 | 12 | | 烧碱：弱现实压制，但成本支撑强 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：短期震荡运行 | 17 | | 尿素：偏弱运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：节中外盘弱势运行 | 23 | | 丙烯：节中现货止跌反弹 | 23 | | PVC：低位震荡 | 26 | | 燃料油：短线转弱，波动将放大 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：开盘或下跌，外盘现货高低硫价差继续收窄 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：地缘快速降温，关注下行风险 | 28 | | 短纤：趋势偏弱 | 31 | | ...

通讯员严晨范喜娟胡欣雨 记者了解到，新材料作为如东三大主导产业之一，港区份额占到六成。截至10月5日，今年如东洋口港已累计靠泊液化品原料船舶296艘次，新材料原料吞 吐量突破300万吨。这些原料涵盖乙二醇、对二甲苯、丙烯腈等关键品类，通过口岸快速接卸后，直接供给九州星际、嘉通能源等本地重点企业，为如东 500亿级安防与特纤产业集群、高端化工新材料产业链提供了稳定的原料支撑。 由于新材料原料多具有高温高压、易燃易爆特性，且考虑海上恶劣天气易导致船舶延误、装卸作业风险升高，口岸监管需兼顾效率与安全。如东边检站构 建"边检+应急+气象+码头"四方联勤机制，通过实时共享船舶动态、货物特性等信息，提前制定监管方案；依托视频监控系统与现场定点巡查相结合的方 式，对船舶靠泊、卸载全流程进行安全把控；同时推出7×24小时通关服务与"一船一策"定制化保障方案，在确保监管到位的前提下，最大限度压缩船舶在 港时间，截至目前已为企业节约物流成本近千万元。 10月5日11时许，巴拿马籍"金豹"轮缓缓靠泊如东洋口港液化码头G5泊位，如东边检站阳光岛警务室民警迅速登上甲板，第一时间开展边防检查工作。作 为国庆假期第一艘新材料原料船，"金豹 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong Petrochemical has successfully trial-produced three new product grades in full-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, and polypropylene, showcasing its commitment to developing high-quality products and overcoming technical challenges since its inception nearly three years ago [1] Group 1: Export Market Expansion - Guangdong Petrochemical has exported over 2 million tons of various products to more than 10 countries and regions, including Europe, Australia, and Japan, achieving a product qualification rate of 100% [3] - The company has optimized its refining processes to meet international standards, successfully increasing the smoke point of aviation kerosene from 22 mm to over 26 mm and achieving a corrosion level below 0 [3][4] Group 2: Aromatics Production and Purity - The aromatics unit at Guangdong Petrochemical has maintained a paraxylene purity of over 99.75%, significantly exceeding international standards, and has implemented various optimizations to enhance operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has reduced the circulation of ineffective materials and improved energy efficiency, with comprehensive energy consumption far below industry benchmarks [4] Group 3: New Product Development - Guangdong Petrochemical has completed over 230 production transitions across its four polyethylene units, focusing on new product development [7] - The company successfully trial-produced three new grades in one week, including a high-strength polyethylene suitable for dairy packaging, enhancing product value [7][8] - A total of 20 new high-efficiency materials have been developed, with total new product output exceeding 1.7 million tons, leading the industry in both variety and volume among Chinese petroleum refining enterprises [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text about the report industry investment rating. Core Views - The stock market's high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term indices face uncertainty due to reduced trading volume, but in the long - run, it's advisable to buy on dips as policy support remains unchanged [4]. - The bond market may improve in the fourth - quarter supply - demand pattern and is likely to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - Precious metals are likely to benefit from the Fed's future easing cycle, and it's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver [9]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous sector, prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals, trade situations, and Fed policy expectations, with different short - term trends [12][14][17]. - In the black building materials sector, prices are expected to remain weakly oscillating before the Fourth Plenary Session, but may have long - term potential [42]. - In the energy - chemical sector, different products have different trends based on supply - demand, inventory, and policy factors [54][56]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products' prices are influenced by supply, demand, and seasonal factors, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed [79][81]. Summary by Category Macro - Financial Stock Index - **Market News**: The Politburo met to discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the NDRC is promoting a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool [2]. - **Base Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have specific base ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: After a continuous rise, high - flying sectors have diverged, and short - term indices face uncertainty, but long - term buying on dips is recommended [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market News**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had specific price changes on Monday, and relevant policies were announced [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4.81 billion yuan [6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market may oscillate in the fourth quarter, and its performance is related to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: Gold and silver prices in different markets had specific changes, and the US government faces a "shutdown" crisis [8]. - **Strategy**: It's recommended to buy on dips, especially for silver, and use put options for risk hedging during holidays [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market News**: LME copper and SHFE copper prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term copper prices may continue to oscillate strongly, with potential risks from trade situations [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [13]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices have strong support at the bottom, affected by trade situations and Fed policy [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: SHFE zinc and LME zinc prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [15]. - **Strategy**: Short - term SHFE zinc is expected to be weakly running [17]. Lead - **Market News**: SHFE lead and LME lead prices changed, and inventory and premium data were provided [18]. - **Strategy**: SHFE lead is expected to show a wide - range oscillating pattern [19]. Nickel - **Market News**: SHFE nickel prices oscillated, and spot and cost data were provided [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and buying on dips can be considered if prices fall enough [21]. Tin - **Market News**: SHFE tin prices oscillated, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [22]. - **Strategy**: Short - term tin prices may remain high and oscillate, and observation is recommended [23]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: Carbonate lithium prices changed, and contract and spot data were provided [24]. - **Strategy**: Carbonate lithium is likely to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply and demand [24]. Alumina - **Market News**: Alumina index prices changed, and base and overseas price data were provided [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: Stainless steel contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [28]. - **Strategy**: Stainless steel prices may face downward pressure if supply - demand imbalance worsens [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: AD2511 contract prices changed, and inventory and price difference data were provided [29]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy futures are expected to be weaker than spot, with support from scrap aluminum prices [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market News**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil contract and spot prices changed, and inventory data were provided [32]. - **Strategy**: Steel prices are likely to remain weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: Iron ore contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [34]. - **Strategy**: Short - term iron ore prices may be affected by supply, demand, and inventory after the holiday [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: Glass and soda ash contract and spot prices changed, and inventory and position data were provided [36][38]. - **Strategy**: Glass is recommended to be viewed bullishly in the short - term, and soda ash is expected to oscillate [37][39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon contract prices changed, and spot and base data were provided [40]. - **Strategy**: Black building materials may first decline and then rise, and long - term buying opportunities may appear after the Fourth Plenary Session [42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon contract prices changed, and spot and inventory data were provided [44][47]. - **Strategy**: Industrial silicon may oscillate in the short - term, and polysilicon may decline in the short - term [46][48]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - **Market News**: Rubber prices were affected by factors such as coal prices and expected reserve sales [50]. - **Strategy**: A medium - term bullish view is held, but short - term observation is recommended [54]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: Crude oil and refined oil contract prices changed, and inventory data were provided [55]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long - positions should be stopped, and observation is recommended [56]. Methanol - **Market News**: Methanol prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [57]. - **Strategy**: Methanol fundamentals have improved marginally, and short - term long - positions can be considered on dips [58]. Urea - **Market News**: Urea prices changed, and base and price difference data were provided [59]. - **Strategy**: Urea is in a low - valuation and weak - driving situation, and long - positions can be considered on dips [60]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [61]. - **Strategy**: Styrene prices may stop falling during the seasonal peak season [62]. PVC - **Market News**: PVC prices changed, and cost, supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [63]. - **Strategy**: PVC has a poor supply - demand situation, and short - term short - positions can be considered on rallies [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: Ethylene glycol prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [65]. - **Strategy**: Ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter, and short - positions can be considered on rallies [66]. PTA - **Market News**: PTA prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [67]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of PTA is recommended [69]. p - Xylene - **Market News**: p - Xylene prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [70]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of p - Xylene is recommended [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: PE prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [72]. - **Strategy**: PE prices may oscillate upward [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: PP prices changed, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [74]. - **Strategy**: PP has a supply - demand imbalance, and short - term no prominent contradictions [76]. Agricultural Products Live Hogs - **Market News**: Hog prices continued to decline, and supply and demand were expected to be stable [78]. - **Strategy**: Short - term hog prices may remain weak, and short - positions on near - month contracts are recommended [79]. Eggs - **Market News**: Egg prices were stable or declined, and supply and demand were in a wait - and - see state [80]. - **Strategy**: Short - term observation of eggs is recommended, and long - positions on far - month contracts can be considered after price declines [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: Soybean meal prices were stable, and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [82]. - **Strategy**: Soybean meal is in a weakly oscillating state, and short - term declines may occur [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market News**: Palm oil export and production data in Malaysia were provided, and domestic oils and fats oscillated [84]. - **Strategy**: Oils and fats may oscillate strongly in the medium - term, and buying on dips can be considered [85]. Sugar - **Market News**: Sugar futures prices oscillated, and spot prices and production forecasts were provided [86]. - **Strategy**: Sugar prices are expected to decline in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: Cotton futures prices declined, and spot prices and supply, demand, and inventory data were provided [88][89]. - **Strategy**: Cotton prices are affected by multiple factors, and short - term observation is recommended [90].

能源化工日报 2025-09-30 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收涨 3.50 元/桶，涨幅 0.72%，报 492.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 燃料油收涨 5.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.17%，报 2919.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 10.00 元/吨，涨幅 0.29%，报 3480.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.39 百万桶至 213.76 百万桶，环比累库 0.18%； 汽油商业库存累库 0.63 百万桶至 91.39 百万桶，环比累库 0.69%；柴油商业库存累库 0.72 百 万桶至 103.95 百万桶，环比累库 0.70%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.35 百万桶至 195.34 百万 桶，环比累库 0.70%。 【策略观点】 我们认为宏观因子偏多，但短期 O ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue reaching new highs, while silver will experience a volatile adjustment [2][5]. - The decline of the US dollar has pushed up the price of copper [2][10]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][13]. - The decline in lead inventory limits the price decline [2][16]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][19]. - Aluminum will trade within a range, alumina will continue to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will fluctuate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and cost [2][25]. - For lithium carbonate, pay attention to changes in mining licenses and suggest light - position operations before the holiday [2][32]. - The supply - demand of industrial silicon has weakened, and for polysilicon, pay attention to policy expectations [2][35][36]. - Iron ore prices will fluctuate at a high level with repeated expectations [2][39]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will fluctuate weakly as raw material trends weaken [2][41]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will fluctuate weakly due to sector sentiment resonance [2][44]. - Coke and coking coal prices will fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [2][47][48]. - Log prices will fluctuate repeatedly [2][50]. - Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term, and for MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage, and pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. - Rubber will trade in a volatile manner, and synthetic rubber will operate weakly [2][31][33]. - Asphalt's factory and warehouse inventories have both declined [2][35]. - LLDPE will have a medium - term volatile market, and PP may be in a volatile market in the medium term [2][37][38]. - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but has strong cost support [2][39]. - Pulp will trade in a volatile manner [2][41]. - The price of glass original sheets is stable [2][43]. - Methanol will trade in a volatile manner in the short term, and urea will fluctuate in the short term with a weakening trend [2][44][46]. - Close short positions in styrene and pure benzene before the National Day [2][48][63]. - The short - term support for LPG is not weak, and pay attention to cost changes; propylene will operate weakly in the short term [2][50]. - PVC will trade at a low level [2][53]. - The price of fuel oil rose at night and then fell back, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened in the short term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has rebounded slightly [2][54]. - For the container shipping index (European line), pay attention to the implementation of price increases and the fermentation of geopolitical events [2][55]. - Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices will fluctuate in the short term with pressure, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][60]. - The short - term rebound height of palm oil is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday; soybean oil's upside space is difficult to open as US soybeans fluctuate weakly [2][64]. - Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - For corn, pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Suggest light - position operations in eggs during the holiday [2][73]. - The bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - For peanuts, pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 863.60 with a daily increase of 1.29%, and the night - session closing price was 870.42 with a night - session increase of 1.02%. The trend intensity is 0 [6][8]. - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10912 with a daily increase of 3.07%, and the night - session closing price was 10907.00 with a night - session increase of 0.66%. The trend intensity is 1 [6][8]. Base Metals - Copper: The closing price of SHFE copper's main contract was 82370 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 83680 with a night - session increase of 1.59%. The trend intensity is 2 [10][12]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc's main contract was 21800 with a daily decrease of 0.82%. The trend intensity is 0 [13][14]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead's main contract was 16855 with a daily decrease of 1.49%. The trend intensity is 0 [16][17]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin's main contract was 272410 with a daily decrease of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 279670 with a night - session increase of 2.62%. The trend intensity is 0 [20][22]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum's main contract was 20730, down 15 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Alumina will continue to be weak (trend intensity: - 1), and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum (trend intensity: 0) [23][24]. - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel's main contract was 121100, down 280 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0. Stainless - steel's main contract closing price was 12760, down 80 from the previous day, and its trend intensity is also 0 [25][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 73920, up 1040 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [32][34]. - Industrial Silicon: The Si2511 contract's closing price was 8610. The supply - demand has weakened, and the trend intensity is - 1 [35][38]. - Polysilicon: The PS2511 contract's closing price was 51280. Pay attention to policy expectations, and the trend intensity is 0 [36][38]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the 12601 contract was 784.0, down 6.0 from the previous day. The trend intensity is 1 [39]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3097, down 42 from the previous day; the closing price of HC2601 was 3289, down 41 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [41][42][43]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5610, down 50 from the previous day; silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5802, down 26 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [44][45][46]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1154, down 42.5 from the previous day; the closing price of J2601 was 1647, down 45.5 from the previous day. The trend intensities of both are 0 [48][49]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 810.5, up 0.2% from the previous day. The trend intensity is 0 [50][51][53]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will remain weak in the medium term. For MEG, conduct a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to position management before the holiday [2][54]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The short - term rebound height is limited, and suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][64]. - Soybean Oil: US soybeans fluctuate weakly, and the upside space of soybean oil is difficult to open [2][64]. - Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1: Soybean meal will fluctuate, and avoid risks during the long holiday; soybean No.1 will fluctuate [2][66]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grains [2][68]. - Sugar: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][70]. - Cotton: Both domestic and overseas cotton futures are weak [2][71]. - Eggs: Suggest light - position operations during the holiday [2][73]. - Live Hogs: The bottom of the spot market has not been reached [2][74]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy - chemical futures on September 30, 2025, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc. Some products are expected to be weak in the medium - term, while others may show short - term fluctuations or maintain a certain trend [2][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The unilateral trend may remain weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is recommended to take profit on PXN positions. The domestic PX operating rate is 86.7% (+0.4%), and the Asian PX operating rate is 78% (-0.2%). Demand pressure is high, and there is limited upward drive [11]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. It is advisable to short the PTA processing fee on the 01/05 contracts. PTA inventory is rising, and the polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%) [12][13]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend may be weak, with a 1 - 5 reverse spread. The ethylene glycol operating rate in the Chinese mainland is 73.08% (down 1.85% from the previous period). The polyester operating rate is 90.3% (-1.3%), and the supply - demand balance sheet is currently strong in the short - term [14]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.47 million tons from the previous period, with a decline of 1.01% [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is in a weak operation. The trend strength is - 1. The supply of butadiene is high, and the inventory pressure of synthetic rubber is increasing. The decline rate may slow down from a valuation perspective [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt shows a decline in both factory and warehouse inventories. The trend strength is - 1. From September 23 - 29, 2025, the domestic asphalt weekly output decreased by 30,000 tons, a decline of 4.3%. As of September 29, the factory inventory decreased by 1.1%, and the social inventory decreased by 0.6% [22][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The trend strength is 0. The cost side strongly supports the PE market. The demand is improving, and the inventory pressure is not significant. The short - term is strong, and the medium - term may oscillate [34][35]. 3.6 PP - PP may be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The trend strength is 0. The short - term demand has improved, and the cost side has strengthened. The supply - side maintenance has increased, and the market is expected to oscillate before the National Day [38][39]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The trend strength is 0. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased. The cost support is strong, and the market may oscillate widely [42][43]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The trend strength is 0. The futures market led the decline, and the spot market was divided. The port inventory decreased by 3.7% week - on - week, but the absolute inventory was still high, and the demand did not improve [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is 0. The domestic float glass market price was stable with partial increases, and the downstream提货 volume was limited [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is 0. The port inventory decreased by 656,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 4.21%. The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations [54][56]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term with a weakening trend. The trend strength is 0. As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of urea enterprises increased by 529,000 tons from the previous week, a 4.54% increase. The short - term price may oscillate, and the medium - term trend is weak [59][60]. 3.12 Styrene - It is recommended to take profit on short positions in styrene before the National Day. The trend strength is 0. The industrial chain valuation has declined, and the high - inventory problem is difficult to solve in the short - term [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is 0. The domestic soda ash market is stable, the supply is high, and the downstream demand is average [65][67]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - LPG has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes; propylene is expected to be weak in the short - term. The trend strength of both is 0. The PDH operating rate is 69.5%, and there are many domestic device maintenance plans [70][71]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The market has strong low - level support, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and the medium - term trend still has pressure [77]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price rose and then fell, with the price center remaining high; low - sulfur fuel oil is weakening in the short - term, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market has slightly rebounded. The trend strength of both is 0 [80]. 3.17 Container Freight Index (European Line) - Attention should be paid to the price increase announcements and the fermentation of geopolitical events for the container freight index (European line). The trend strength is not mentioned. The freight rates of European and US - West routes have declined, and the market is affected by multiple factors [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Categories Black Series - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5678, spot price is 5610, basis is 68, basis rate is 1.21%, historical quantile is 90% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 5950, spot price is 5820, basis is 130, basis rate is 2.23%, historical quantile is 30% [1] - Rebar (RB2601): Futures price is 3240, spot price is 3097, basis is 143, basis rate is 4.62%, historical quantile is 61.90% [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2601): Futures price is 3289, spot price is 3350, basis is -61, basis rate is -1.85%, historical quantile is 44.00% [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 837, spot price is 784, basis is 53, basis rate is 6.80%, historical quantile is 44.70% [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1647, spot price is 1613, basis is 34, basis rate is 2.09%, historical quantile is 44.16% [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1160, spot price is 1154, basis is 6, basis rate is 0.52%, historical quantile is 24.80% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2511): Futures price is 82370, spot price is 85510, basis is -3140, basis rate is -3.67%, historical quantile is 28.75% [1] - Aluminum (AL2511): Futures price is 20690, spot price is 20730, basis is -40, basis rate is -0.19%, historical quantile is 41.04% [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 2904, spot price is 2982, basis is 78, basis rate is 2.61%, historical quantile is 49.55% [1] - Zinc (ZN2511): Futures price is 21560, spot price is 21800, basis is -240, basis rate is -1.10%, historical quantile is 20.83% [1] - Tin (SN2511): Futures price is 272410, spot price is 271400, basis is 1010, basis rate is 0.37%, historical quantile is 61.45% [1] - Nickel (NI2511): Futures price is 121100, spot price is 121200, basis is -100, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 300 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2511): Futures price is 13220, spot price is 12760, basis is 460, basis rate is 3.61%, historical quantile is 86.69% [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 73920, spot price is 73550, basis is -370, basis rate is -0.50%, historical quantile is 49.11% [1] - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 8610, spot price is 840, basis is 7770, basis rate is 9.25%, historical quantile is 57.93% [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2512): Futures price is 866.5, spot price is 865, basis is -1.5, basis rate is -0.17%, historical quantile is 11.80% [1] - Silver (AG2512): Futures price is 10939, spot price is 10878, basis is -61, basis rate is -0.56%, historical quantile is 5.30% [1] Agricultural Products - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2416, spot price is 2530, basis is 114, basis rate is 4.72%, historical quantile is 66.30% [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ole01): Futures price is 10093, spot price is 10340, basis is 247, basis rate is 2.45%, historical quantile is 75.90% [1] - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2159, spot price is 2280, basis is 121, basis rate is 5.60%, historical quantile is 92.40% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2483, spot price is 2550, basis is 67, basis rate is 2.70%, historical quantile is 30.40% [1] - Soybean Meal (NSe01): Futures price is 2890, spot price is 2933, basis is -43, basis rate is -1.47%, historical quantile is 29.90% [1] - Soybean Oil (V2601): Futures price is 8150, spot price is 8300, basis is 150, basis rate is 1.84%, historical quantile is 30.00% [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9234, spot price is 9318, basis is -84, basis rate is -0.90%, historical quantile is 6.00% [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 13350, spot price is 14942, basis is 1592, basis rate is 11.93%, historical quantile is 7.50% [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 5479, spot price is 5890, basis is 411, basis rate is 7.00%, historical quantile is 73.90% [1] - Apple (AP601): Futures price is 8486, spot price is 8600, basis is 114, basis rate is 1.34%, historical quantile is 25.80% [1] - Red Dates (C601): Futures price is 10915, spot price is 9500, basis is -1415, basis rate is -14.86%, historical quantile is 33.60% [1] Energy and Chemicals - Paraxylene (PX511): Futures price is 6686.1, spot price is 6670, basis is -16.1, basis rate is -0.24%, historical quantile is 29.30% [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4585, spot price is 4652, basis is 67, basis rate is 1.44%, historical quantile is 28.60% [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4295, spot price is 4224, basis is -71, basis rate is -1.68%, historical quantile is 83.80% [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF511): Futures price is 6435, spot price is 6336, basis is -99, basis rate is -1.54%, historical quantile is 68.50% [1] - Styrene (EB251): Futures price is 6915, spot price is 6932, basis is -17, basis rate is -0.25%, historical quantile is 23.30% [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2250, spot price is 2262, basis is -12, basis rate is -0.53%, historical quantile is 11.40% [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7175, spot price is 7181, basis is -6, basis rate is -0.08%, historical quantile is 20.00% [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 6785, spot price is 6903, basis is -118, basis rate is -1.71%, historical quantile is 4.10% [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4896, spot price is 4730, basis is -166, basis rate is -3.40%, historical quantile is 35.30% [1] - Caustic Soda (SH601): Futures price is 2515, spot price is 2500, basis is -15, basis rate is -0.60%, historical quantile is 45.80% [1] - LPG (PG2511): Futures price is 4548, spot price is 4293, basis is 255, basis rate is 5.94%, historical quantile is 47.30% [1] - Asphalt (BU2511): Futures price is 3466, spot price is 3500, basis is 34, basis rate is 0.98%, historical quantile is 60.00% [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2511): Futures price is 11500, spot price is 11340, basis is 160, basis rate is 1.41%, historical quantile is 45.10% [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1128, spot price is 1228, basis is -100, basis rate is -8.14%, historical quantile is 33.54% [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1188, spot price is 1278, basis is -90, basis rate is -7.04%, historical quantile is 18.00% [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15470, spot price is 14700, basis is -770, basis rate is -5.08%, historical quantile is 14.00% [1] Financial Futures - IF2512.CFF: Futures price is 4604.6, spot price is 4620.1, basis is -15.5, basis rate is -0.34%, historical quantile is 28.30% [1] - IH2512.CHE: Futures price is 2973, spot price is 2976, basis is 3, basis rate is 0.10%, historical quantile is 73.80% [1] - IC2512.CFE: Futures price is 7232.2, spot price is 7350.6, basis is -118.4, basis rate is -1.61%, historical quantile is 1.10% [1] - IM2512.CFE: Futures price is 7337.4, spot price is 7497.8, basis is -160.4, basis rate is -2.14%, historical quantile is 7.00% [1] - 2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512): Futures price is 102.33, spot price is 102.34, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 21.90% [1] - 5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 105.51, spot price is 99.22, basis is -0.01, basis rate is -0.01%, historical quantile is 25.40% [4] - 10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512): Futures price is 107.66, spot price is 105.87, basis is 0.21, basis rate is 0.19%, historical quantile is 42.40% [4] - 30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 113.79, spot price is 120.74, basis is 0.36, basis rate is 0.32%, historical quantile is 51.20% [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings but provides trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment ratings: - **Weak or Bearish**: Synthetic rubber, rubber,纯碱, with trend intensities of -1 [17][11][64] - **Neutral**: PX, PTA, MEG, LLDPE, PP,烧碱,甲醇,尿素,苯乙烯, LPG,丙烯, PVC, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil,集运指数（欧线）, with trend intensities of 0 [7][8][9][33][37][43][56][59][60][71][75][77][79] - **Bullish**: Glass, with a trend intensity of 1 [51] Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various energy - chemical commodities, including their current market conditions, supply - demand situations, and future trends. Most commodities are expected to show different degrees of price fluctuations in the short - to - medium term, affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and policy changes. Traders are advised to pay attention to position management before the National Day holiday [2]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. PXN should take profit. Weak demand and high inventory pressure during the National Day holiday limit upward drive. Domestic PX开工率 is 86.7% (+0.4%), and Asian PX开工率 is 78% (-0.2%) [7]. - **PTA**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Rebound in PTA processing fees on 01/05 contracts should be shorted. Demand pressure is high, and supply - demand imbalance persists. PTA负荷 is 76.8% (-) [8]. - **MEG**: Unilateral trend may remain weak, with 1 - 5 reverse spread. Supply pressure eases marginally with upcoming maintenance plans. Polyester开工率 is 90.3% (-1.3%), and post - holiday inventory pressure may increase [9]. Rubber - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak - oscillating state. Futures prices have declined, and trading volume has increased. Multiple tire raw material prices have dropped, reducing tire production costs [10][11][13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak operation. High supply pressure and inventory accumulation lead to downward pressure on prices. However, the decline rate may slow down due to valuation factors [17]. Asphalt - **Market Situation**: Cost support exists, but factory inventories continue to accumulate. Production has increased, and different regions show different inventory trends. The market may follow the oil price in a range - bound oscillation [18][30]. LLDPE - **Market Situation**: In the short term, it is relatively strong, and in the medium term, it may oscillate. Cost support is strong, demand from the agricultural film industry is improving, and inventory pressure is low [32]. PP - **Market Situation**: It is expected to be in an oscillating market. Short - term demand has improved, cost support is strong, and supply - side low - profit factors limit price fluctuations [36]. Caustic Soda - **Market Situation**: It is suppressed by weak reality but strongly supported by cost. The market is in a wide - range oscillation, with multiple factors such as supply - demand, export, and cost in play [41]. Pulp - **Market Situation**: It is in a weak - oscillating state. The import market shows a differentiation pattern of weak coniferous pulp and strong broad - leaf pulp, affected by supply - demand and cost factors [44][48]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The price of the original sheet is stable. The market price fluctuates, and the trading atmosphere varies by region. Some downstream factories have orders before the holiday, but overall, the market is affected by factors such as price and demand [51]. Methanol - **Market Situation**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term. High inventory pressure restricts the upward space, while policy expectations provide support [55]. Urea - **Market Situation**: It will oscillate before the National Day and trend weakly in the medium term. Short - term price stability is due to pre - holiday order collection, while long - term pressure comes from weak domestic demand [58][59]. Styrene - **Market Situation**: Short - term empty orders should be closed before the National Day. High inventory problems persist, but low - valuation speculation may occur [61]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The spot market changes little. Supply remains high, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to adjust weakly and stably [64]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: It has strong short - term support, and attention should be paid to cost changes [67]. - **Propylene**: It runs weakly in the short term, affected by factors such as supply - demand and price differentials [68]. PVC - **Market Situation**: It oscillates at a low level. Although there is support from anti - deflation and anti - involution factors, high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals persist [74]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: Its strong trend continues, and it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [77]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It oscillates strongly, and the price differential between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market narrows slightly [77]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Market Situation**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to the emotional impact of price increase announcements. Freight rates have declined, and the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand and exchange rates [79].