PTA期货：短期供需有所改善 师秀明 投资咨询从业资格号：F0255552 shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货研究报告 2025年11月17日 周报 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周PTA盘面呈现4550-4800区间震荡，供需偏好格局成为能化板块多配；价格震 荡上行，持仓量先降后升，基差持续负值，市场情绪偏谨慎。 2、近期芳烃调油逻辑再次强化，汽油裂解价差持续走强，芳烃环节MX和甲苯需求增长，甲苯调油-歧化 经济性维持高位，对PX支撑偏强。11月PTA供应端有较多检修计划公布，下游聚酯需求11月预计高位维持， 下游聚酯低库存低利润，聚酯和涤纶长丝开工率偏高，阶段性对PTA需求有支撑。PTA供需边际有较大好转， 加工费得到阶段性修复。整体上，PX调油需求叠加PTA供需结构阶段性相对较好，短期对PTA价格有支撑。风 险点：原油下跌。 关注因素：1.聚酯开工率；2.PTA检修；3.织机开工率；4、PX调整需求；5、原油走势。 | PTA | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

| 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | | 前日 昨日 | 变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯2512 | 6,450 | 6,437 | 13 | EB-BZ | 1020 | 1000 | 20 | | 苯乙烯2601 | 6,482 | 6,469 | 13 | 非一体化利润 | -444 | -455 | 11 | | 苯乙烯2602 | 6,535 | 6,526 | 9 | 一体化利润 | -113 | -129 | 16 | | EB12-01 | -32 | -32 | 0 | N+1合约 | 6350 | 6380 | -30 | | EB01-02 | -53 | -57 | 4 | N+2合约 | 6390 | 6410 | -20 | 商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 17 日 苯乙烯：关注乙苯增量，短期震荡 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018016 Huangtianyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 苯乙烯基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺，卓创，国泰君安期货 【趋势强度】 苯乙烯趋 ...

2025 年 11 月 07 日 对二甲苯：芳烃调油支撑估值，高位震荡市 PTA：需求尚可，供应压力仍存，高位震荡市 MEG：供应压力较大，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com 来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6820 | 4688 | 3924 | 6244 | 460.4 | | 涨跌 | 170 | 88 | 10 | 68 | -3.3 | | 涨跌幅 | 2.56% | 1.91% | 0.26% | 1.10% | -0.71% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | 14 | -62 | -80 | -34 | 1 | | 前日收盘价 | -8 | -60 | -91 | -34 | -1.9 | | 涨跌 | 22 | ...

2025年11月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：芳烃调油支撑估值，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：需求尚可，供应压力仍存，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：供应压力较大，趋势偏弱 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行 | 5 | | 合成橡胶：下跌放缓 | 7 | | 沥青：弱势运行 | 9 | | LLDPE：计划外检修增加，关注进口压力 | 11 | | PP：趋势偏弱 | 12 | | 烧碱：成本支撑，但趋势压力仍在 | 13 | | 纸浆：震荡运行 | 14 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 16 | | 甲醇：偏弱运行 | 17 | | 尿素：短期震荡运行 | 19 | | 苯乙烯：偏弱震荡 | 21 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 22 | | LPG：需求改善有限，盘面估值偏高 | 23 | | 丙烯：上游装置亏损，关注减产操作 | 23 | | PVC：趋势仍有压力 | 26 | | 燃料油：震荡走势为主，仍然弱于低硫 | 27 | | 低硫燃料油：短期偏强，外盘现货高低硫价差继续上行 | 27 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡 ...

2025 年 11 月 05 日 对二甲苯：芳烃调油支撑估值，高位震荡市 PTA：需求尚可，供应压力仍存，高位震荡市 MEG：供应压力较大，趋势偏弱 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6660 | 4604 | 3901 | 6190 | 463.5 | | 涨跌 | 20 | 8 | -69 | 12 | -4.4 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.30% | 0.17% | -1.74% | 0.19% | -0.94% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -16 | -62 | -88 | -32 | -0.8 | | 前日收盘价 | -6 | -60 | -79 | -46 | -1.9 | | 涨跌 | -10 | -2 | -9 | 14 | 1.1 | | 现货 | PX C ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views - Different commodities are expected to have various trends, including high - level oscillations, weak trends, and sideways movements. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, while MEG shows a weak trend [2][4]. Group 2: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillation market with supply increasing and demand decreasing. Aromatic blending oil demand supports the valuation. Pay attention to future aromatic logistics changes and consider shorting PXN on rallies [2][9][10]. - **PTA**: Demand has a positive feedback effect, and it can be regarded as relatively strong in the short - term. The polyester load starts to rebound unexpectedly, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure in November eases. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and short above a processing fee of 300 [2][10]. - **MEG**: The unilateral price hits a new low, and the supply pressure is still large. Multiple coal - chemical plants plan to conduct maintenance, but overall, the supply pressure from mid - November remains significant. Consider reverse arbitrage on the spread [2][10][11]. Rubber - It is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The price of Thai raw materials and the operating rate of enterprises are relatively stable [2][12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation due to the collapse of costs. The price of butadiene continues to decline, and the inventory in ports has increased. The cost of butadiene is the main factor affecting the price of synthetic rubber [2][16][18]. Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. The inventory of sample factories and social warehouses has decreased. The opening rate of refineries has decreased slightly, and the inventory rate has also decreased [2][19][31]. LLDPE - Planned unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The demand for agricultural films is showing signs of peaking, and the overall market is in an oscillatory situation. The short - term downward driving force is not strong, but medium - term supply - demand pressure exists [2][32][33]. PP - It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term. Although there is a short - term rebound due to factors such as the rebound of oil prices and supply reduction, the long - term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, so it may be in a weak - oscillation pattern [2][36][37]. Caustic Soda - It has cost support and is in an oscillatory market. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped significantly, increasing the cost of caustic soda. However, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support [2][40][42]. Pulp - It is expected to move sideways. The futures market is relatively strong, but the spot market is restricted by high inventory and weak demand. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have increased [2][46][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market price fluctuates, with some areas increasing and some decreasing. The market demand is supported by rigid demand, but the trading atmosphere is generally average [2][51][52]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The supply is high, and the demand side, especially the MTO industry, has increased pressure and compressed profits. The macro - driving force has weakened [2][55][59]. Urea - It is under oscillatory pressure. The supply increases as plants resume production, and both export and domestic demand are weak. The cost support is limited, and the downward trend is expected in the medium - term [2][60][63]. Styrene - It is in a weak - oscillation state. Pure benzene has triple pressures, but the ethylbenzene blending oil window has reopened, so the short - term absolute price is expected to oscillate [2][64][65]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply side has a slight decline, and the downstream demand maintains low - price rigid - demand replenishment. The market is in a weak - stable oscillation in the short - term [2][66][68]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the valuation of the futures price is high. The price of CP paper goods has dropped [2][71][76]. - **Propylene**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the loose pattern has improved. The PDH opening rate has increased [2][72]. PVC - It is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is stable and increasing, the demand in the north weakens seasonally, and the export price competition pressure is large. The cost support is weak, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change [2][79][81]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a relatively strong oscillation but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is a short - term adjustment at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is short - term weak, waiting for the guidance of cabin opening. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts have changed [2][84].