Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short - term pressure with sufficient spot supply and will experience a high - level sideways market [1] - PTA will be in a high - level sideways market [1] - MEG has limited upside space and still faces pressure in the medium term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Futures**: PX主力昨日收盘价7286，跌50，跌幅 - 0.68%；PTA主力昨日收盘价5150，涨跌0，涨跌幅0.00%；MEG主力昨日收盘价3879，涨41，涨幅1.07%；PF主力昨日收盘价6544，涨12，涨幅0.18%；SC主力昨日收盘价416.3，跌11.9，跌幅 - 2.78% [2] - **Spot**: PX CFR中国昨日价格899.67美元/吨，跌3；PTA华东昨日价格5095元/吨，涨15；MEG现货昨日价格3713元/吨，涨33；石脑油MOPJ昨日价格532.75美元/吨，跌1.5；Dated布伦特昨日价格61.89美元/桶，跌1.02 [2] - **Spot Processing Fees**: PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格363.88，涨7.92；PTA加工费昨日价格361.63，涨6.66；短纤加工费昨日价格120.64，跌21.37；瓶片加工费昨日价格43.68，跌25.41；MOPJ石脑油 - 迪拜原油价差昨日价格 - 4.34，涨跌0 [2] Market Dynamics - **Crude Oil**: The situation between the US and Venezuela has not intensified, and the market expects Venezuela's production to increase in the long - term, leading to a decline in international oil prices. On January 7, during the Asian trading session, oil prices fell after Trump said Venezuela would supply 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US [3] - **PX**: In the physical market of PX, especially for February arrivals, there has been little improvement in the past few days. The floating price is weak, mainly due to the expected lack of buying interest during the Chinese Lunar New Year. The floating price for February arrivals is at a discount of about $3 per ton, and the discount for March is shallower [5] - **Polyester**: The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are highly differentiated, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 74% as of 3:00 pm. The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average sales - to - production ratio of about 50% as of 3:30 pm [6] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Views and Suggestions - **PX**: The future supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil is sufficient, which discounts the aromatics blending oil expectation for the 05 contract. The increase in near - end PX warehouse receipts restricts the performance of near - month contracts. The PXN spread has reached $366 per ton, and enterprises' hedging willingness has increased significantly. The PX industry has weakened, while the capital market has a strong overall expectation for the commodity market [7] - **PTA**: The cost is slightly weak, with a short - term correction and a high - level sideways market. The processing fee of the 05 contract on the disk has risen to over 300 yuan/ton, which is slightly high. The restart of some devices will increase the operating rate, and the overall operating rate will be maintained at about 78%. Although polyester production has decreased slightly, PTA is still in the process of destocking [7] - **MEG**: The medium - term trend is still weak, and a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread is recommended. Although the coal - chemical products were strong due to the coal sector's movement, the domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still high, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand from polyester is weakening, and the situation of oversupply cannot be changed in the medium term [8]

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday in 2025, international oil prices have continued to decline, leading to a weak overall pattern in the polyester industry chain. Despite some overseas facilities shutting down or reducing output, domestic PX operating rates remain high for the year [1] Group 1: PX Market Dynamics - PX prices fell to a six-month low of 6258 yuan/ton on October 15 due to weak cost and fundamental factors [1] - PX social inventory decreased from nearly 3 million tons at the beginning of the year to around 1.5 million tons by the end of October, which is historically low and provides solid support for PX fundamentals [1] - The decline in inventory is attributed to a mismatch in the timing of capacity additions between PX and PTA, with PTA adding 8.7 million tons of new capacity this year and another 4.5 million tons planned for 2026, while PX only added 200,000 tons in the past two years [1] Group 2: Downstream Polyester Resilience - The downstream polyester segment has shown strong resilience, with winter cold waves improving textile orders and restoring polyester profits, which in turn boosts PTA operating rates and supports PX demand [2] - Two macro events in November, namely the suspension of tariff increases between China and the U.S. until November 10, 2026, and India's cancellation of mandatory BIS certification for certain chemical products, have also bolstered market confidence [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - In the upcoming winter, global gasoline prices outside mainland China are expected to remain strong, but their impact on PX is limited as most MX still flows to PX production [3] - Planned maintenance for PX is concentrated in the second and fourth quarters of next year, with new facilities expected to come online in the second half, leading to a tight supply situation in the first half and potentially good industry profits [3] - The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to support PX demand from domestic polyester and PTA exports, with a neutral to strong fundamental outlook in the short term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX is expected to experience a slight inventory build - up in November. With the weakening of aromatics blending data, there is a risk of valuation correction as it is in a slightly oversupplied situation [11]. - PTA's processing fee has slightly recovered, but the upside space is limited without further stimulus. PXN also faces a risk of valuation correction [12]. - For MEG, the supply - demand outlook remains weak in the medium - term. It is recommended to short on rallies as the inventory build - up needs to be mitigated by reducing the load [13]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendations PX - Price: The 01 contract dropped 56 yuan to 6750 yuan last week, while the CFR China spot price rose 7 dollars to 833 dollars [11]. - Supply: China's load was 89.5%, up 2.7% week - on - week; Asia's load was 79.7%, up 1.2%. Some plants restarted, and imports from South Korea to China increased [11]. - Demand: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week due to plant maintenance [11]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up expected in November [11]. - Valuation and cost: PXN was 260 dollars as of November 20, up 3 dollars year - on - year. Aromatics blending expectations weakened [11]. PTA - Price: The 01 contract fell 34 yuan to 4666 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 65 yuan to 4630 yuan [12]. - Supply: PTA load decreased to 71%, down 4.7% week - on - week because of accidental maintenance in November [12]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week. However, the terminal is gradually entering the off - season [12]. - Inventory: It is expected to enter a phase of inventory reduction [12]. - Profit: Spot processing fee increased 25 yuan to 164 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - Price: The 01 contract declined 114 yuan to 3808 yuan, and the East China spot price dropped 56 yuan to 3885 yuan [13]. - Supply: EG load decreased to 70.8%, down 0.7% week - on - week. There were many accidental plant maintenance events [13]. - Demand: Polyester load increased to 91.3%, up 0.8% week - on - week, but the terminal is in a downward trend [13]. - Inventory: Port inventory increased, but the inventory build - up rate is expected to slow down [13]. - Valuation and cost: Overall valuation is moderately low, but load reduction is needed to slow down inventory build - up [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets PX - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads fluctuated weakly [32]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, but figures are presented for reference [35][39][42]. PTA - Basis and spreads: The basis was at a low level, and monthly spreads strengthened [45]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with relevant figures presented [48][52][55]. MEG - Basis and spreads: The basis weakened, and monthly spreads were weak [58]. - Trading volume and open interest: No specific data analysis provided, with corresponding figures given [66][69][72]. 3.3 Paraxylene (PX) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity expansions are planned, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 300 - million - ton project in the second half of 2025 [79]. - Supply: Accidental plant outages recovered, and the October import volume slightly declined [82][86]. - Inventory: There was a slight inventory build - up in September [88]. - Cost and profit: PXN was strong, short - process spreads were compressed, and naphtha spreads were strong [92]. - Aromatics blending: Gasoline performance weakened, and the relative value of blending decreased [99][110]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity is being added, like Hailun Petrochemical's 320 - million - ton project in July 2025 [132]. - Supply: Load decreased due to accidental maintenance, and exports are also affected [12][135]. - Inventory: Inventory is expected to decrease in the short - term [12]. - Profit and valuation: Processing fees slightly recovered [141]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - Capacity: New capacity projects are underway, such as Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton project in September 2025 [145]. - Supply: The operating rate decreased, especially for syngas - based plants [148]. - Inventory: Port inventory continued to increase, and upstream and downstream factory inventories were relatively high [158]. - Cost: Coal prices declined, and ethylene was weak [168]. - Profit: Naphtha - based production profit dropped to a yearly low, and coal - based profit was significantly compressed [171]. 3.6 Polyester and End - Markets Polyester - Capacity: New filament plants were put into operation, and capacity continued to grow [184]. - Basis: Staple fiber basis was strong, and bottle chip basis fluctuated [187]. - Supply: The operating rate slightly increased [190]. - Inventory: Filament inventory was at a low level [197]. - Profit: Filament profit recovered [206]. End - Markets - Operating rate: The operating rate decreased, showing a year - on - year decline [210]. - Orders and inventory: Orders declined, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased [219]. - Retail and exports: Domestic textile and clothing retail growth recovered, while exports were weak [223]. - US inventory: US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, with a marginal increase [225].

Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - PTA Futures Weekly Report (November 17, 2025) [1][2] - Analyst: Shi Xiuming [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, the PTA futures market showed a range - bound oscillation between 4550 - 4800. The supply - demand preference pattern made it a multi - allocation in the energy and chemical sector. The price oscillated upward, the position first decreased and then increased, the basis remained negative, and the market sentiment was cautious [3]. - Recently, the logic of aromatics blending into gasoline has been strengthened again. The gasoline crack spread has continued to strengthen, the demand for MX and toluene in the aromatics segment has increased, and the economics of toluene blending into gasoline - disproportionation has remained high, strongly supporting PX. In November, there are many maintenance plans announced on the PTA supply side, and the downstream polyester demand is expected to remain high. The low inventory and low profit of downstream polyester, along with the high operating rates of polyester and polyester filament, provide phased support for PTA demand. The PTA supply - demand margin has improved significantly, and the processing fee has been phased repaired. Overall, the PX blending demand and the relatively good phased supply - demand structure of PTA support the PTA price in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - The PTA futures price oscillated between 4550 - 4800 this week, with an upward trend. The position first decreased and then increased, and the basis was negative. The market sentiment was cautious [3]. Key Factors to Watch - Polyester operating rate, PTA maintenance, loom operating rate, PX adjustment demand, and crude oil trend [4]. Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PTA Futures (Continuous) | Yuan/ton | 4643.00 | 4620.00 | 23 | 0.50% | Daily | | PTA Output | 10,000 tons | 334.65 | 321.72 | 12.93 | 4.02% | Weekly | | Polyester Chip Operating Rate | % | 84.60 | 84.64 | - 0.04 | - 0.05% | Weekly | | Jiangsu and Zhejiang Loom Operating Rate | % | 67.99 | 69.45 | - 1.46 | - 2.10% | Weekly | | PXN | Yuan/ton | 256 | 241 | 15 | 6.22% | Daily | | PTA Cash - flow Cost | Yuan/ton | 4643 | 4639 | 4 | 0.09% | Daily | [5] PX - Related Analysis PX Spot and Futures Market Review - The report presents multiple charts related to PX futures closing prices, spot prices in different regions, and price spreads, with data sourced from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [7][8][9]. PX Supply Situation Analysis - The report shows charts on PX production in Asia and China, monthly import volume and its year - on - year change, operating rate, and inventory, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [12][14][16]. PTA - Related Analysis PTA Spot and Futures Market Review - The report shows a chart of China's PTA futures closing price (continuous) and the mainstream price in East China, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [17]. PTA Supply Situation Analysis - The report presents charts on PTA production, operating rate, and ending inventory, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [19][22]. PTA Consumption Situation Analysis - The report shows charts on PTA export volume and growth rate, monthly production of polyester filament and staple fiber, operating rates of polyester chip, polyester filament, and staple fiber, and the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [25][27][29]. Cost - Profit Analysis - The report shows a chart on PTA spot price in East China, PTA cash - flow cost, and PTA profit, with data from iFinD and Ningzheng Futures [32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the styrene market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the increment of ethylbenzene. The short - term aromatics blending oil logic continues to play out. The pure benzene market is in a stage of weak chemical reality and strong blending oil expectations, with short - term market fluctuations mainly. The short - term high of the pure benzene market is 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and whether it can break through later depends on the guidance of the crude oil price center and the alleviation of domestic inventory pressure [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Styrene futures prices showed small increases: styrene 2512 rose from 6,437 to 6,450, styrene 2601 rose from 6,469 to 6,482, and styrene 2602 rose from 6,526 to 6,535. EB - BZ increased from 1000 to 1020, non - integrated profit increased from - 455 to - 444, and integrated profit increased from - 129 to - 113. EB12 - 01 remained unchanged at - 32, EB01 - 02 increased from - 57 to - 53. N + 1 contract decreased from 6380 to 6350, and N + 2 contract decreased from 6410 to 6390 [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of styrene is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [1] Spot News - The pure benzene market is in a stage of weak chemical reality and strong blending oil expectations. In reality, pure benzene arrivals are weak, mid - stream inventory pressure is high, and downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly in the fourth quarter. Recently, the overseas blending oil market's off - season driving force has strengthened, with news of US refinery capacity withdrawal and reduced load of disproportionation units supporting overseas aromatic prices. The gasoline crack spread has continued to strengthen, and the US Gulf aromatic premium is close to the summer peak level. South Korea's disproportionation profit is poor, and there is a continuous expectation of supply reduction. Previously, the market expected pure benzene imports of 48 - 500,000 tons in November - December, but now it is considered that imports may be lower than expected [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term due to overseas gasoline blending demand supporting the aromatics valuation. The domestic plant operating rate is at a new high, and attention should be paid to the impact of sanctions on short - flow plant operations. The cost - side aromatics gasoline blending demand supports a strong unilateral trend [11][12]. - PTA shows a strong - side oscillating market. The polyester load has rebounded more than expected, with fair rigid demand. The short - term operating rate has decreased, alleviating the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the PTA processing fee should be shorted when it is above 300, with range - bound operations recommended [12]. - MEG has a large supply pressure, with the unilateral price hitting a new low. The operating rate of existing plants has increased, and the inventory at ports will accelerate accumulation from mid - November. The current price needs to test the cost line of coal - based plants, and the monthly spread should be shorted at high levels [13]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: On November 6, the PX price rose. The late - session physical goods for December were negotiated at 824/830 and January at 816/831, with no transactions. The PX valuation on that day was 826 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars from the previous day. Despite the weakening of crude oil prices, the Asian PX price increased due to tight supply fundamentals and positive sentiment in the downstream PTA market [3]. - PTA: A 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant in South China has stopped for maintenance, and the restart time is undetermined. The PTA load has been adjusted to 76.4% [8]. - MEG: As of November 6, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.44% (down 3.76% from the previous period), and a 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan is planned to stop for maintenance at the end of this month [8]. - Polyester: A polyester chip plant has been under maintenance this week, and the domestic polyester load is around 91.5%. The overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 75%. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers on November 6 were highly differentiated, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were partially strong [9]. Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: 0 - PTA trend intensity: 0 - MEG trend intensity: - 1 [10] Futures and Spot Data | Futures | PX Main | PTA Main | MEG Main | PF Main | SC Main | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 6820 | 4688 | 3924 | 6244 | 460.4 | | Change | 170 | 88 | 10 | 68 | - 3.3 | | Change Rate | 2.56% | 1.91% | 0.26% | 1.10% | - 0.71% | | Month Spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's Closing Price | 14 | - 62 | - 80 | - 34 | 1 | | Previous Day's Closing Price | - 8 | - 60 | - 91 | - 34 | - 1.9 | | Change | 22 | - 2 | 11 | 0 | 2.9 | | Spot | PX CFR China (USD/ton) | PTA East China (CNY/ton) | MEG Spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent (USD/barrel) | | Yesterday's Price | 826 | 4540 | 3978 | 575.75 | 63.66 | | Previous Day's Price | 816 | 4510 | 3982 | 577.5 | 64.56 | | Change | 10 | 30 | - 4 | - 1.75 | - 0.9 | | Spot Processing Fee | PX - Naphtha Spread | PTA Processing Fee | Staple Fiber Processing Fee | Bottle Chip Processing Fee | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | | Yesterday's Price | 239.83 | 120.05 | 273.44 | 78.76 | - 4.34 | | Previous Day's Price | 243.71 | 162.45 | 263.33 | 59.77 | - 4.34 | | Change | - 3.88 | - 42.39 | 10.11 | 18.99 | 0 | [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report Date: November 6, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Energy and Chemicals Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and analyses for various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, LLDPE, PP, caustic soda, pulp, glass, methanol, urea, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, PVC, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and the container shipping index (European line). Each commodity has different market trends and influencing factors, such as supply and demand, cost, and macroeconomic factors [2] Group 4: Commodity Summaries PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Overseas gasoline blending demand supports the valuation of aromatics, and PX is relatively strong in the short term. The domestic device operating rate has reached a new high. Concerns about sanctions on Russian oil companies may lead to a reduction in the operating rate of some refineries, but it does not affect the PX operating rate for now. The cost side is supported by gasoline blending demand, and future logistics changes of aromatics should be monitored [16] - **PTA**: The cost support is weak, but there is an oversupply. It is a unilateral oscillating market, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies. The polyester load has rebounded unexpectedly, and the rigid demand for PTA is acceptable. The short-term operating rate of PTA has decreased, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the first half of November has eased. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the space for positive spreads is limited. Interval operations are recommended. The processing fee above 300 should be shorted on rallies [16] - **MEG**: The unilateral price has reached a new low, the operating rate of existing devices has increased, and the supply pressure remains high. The monthly spread should be shorted on rallies. Domestic and coal-based devices have restarted or are undergoing maintenance. The import volume this week is at a high level, and inventory accumulation at ports will accelerate. Although the polyester load remains high, it cannot change the current oversupply situation. The current price needs to test the cost line of coal-based devices, and the operating conditions of marginal high-cost devices should be observed [17] Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. The upstream raw material support is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish. The downstream is cautious about restocking at low prices, and the price center of natural rubber continues to move down. Some enterprises have slightly reduced their production at the beginning of the month, and the overall sales pressure is increasing [18][21] Synthetic Rubber - The decline of synthetic rubber has slowed down. The inventory of butadiene rubber has decreased, and the spot trading has improved, which supports the price. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene has led to a downward shift in the dynamic valuation range of butadiene rubber. The supply pressure of butadiene is high in the fourth quarter, and the inventory pressure is gradually increasing. The futures price reflects the expectation of profit contraction of butadiene rubber. The macro driving force has weakened, and the industrial chain fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to whether the supply and demand pattern of butadiene rubber will improve in November [22][25] Asphalt - Asphalt is operating weakly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy-traffic asphalt enterprises has decreased this week, the shipment volume has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises has also decreased. The supply in the north has decreased, and the demand in the north has entered the off-season, while the supply in the south has increased slightly, but the overall decline in the north outweighs the increase in the south [27][40] LLDPE - For LLDPE, the unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The market price has continued to decline, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The downstream demand for agricultural films and packaging films provides rigid support, and the market inventory has decreased. In the short term, there is no strong driving force for continuous decline, and the market is oscillating. In the medium term, the high inventory and weakening demand may lead to supply and demand pressure [41][42] PP - PP is trending weakly. The domestic PP market has continued to be weak, and the futures price has declined significantly, which has increased the bearish sentiment in the spot market. The cost support has weakened, and the downstream procurement is cautious. Although the recent rebound in oil prices and the reduction in supply have led to a short-term rebound in the market, the long-term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, and the market may be in a weakly oscillating pattern in the medium term [45][46] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is supported by cost, but there is still pressure in the trend. The high production and high inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market is shorting the chlor-alkali profit. The impact of alumina production and reduction on caustic soda demand can be basically offset. The winter is the off-season for chlor-alkali enterprise maintenance, and the supply-demand gap caused by stockpiling may be limited. The non-aluminum downstream support is limited, and the export is under pressure, which increases the domestic supply pressure. Attention should be paid to the supply changes under the background of low profit and liquid chlorine [49][50] Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The futures market has strengthened, but the现货 market has stagnated. The supply-demand pattern has not changed significantly, and the port inventory remains at a high level of 2 million tons, with continuous supply pressure. The downstream demand for base paper is weak, and the terminal orders are limited. The futures price may have upward momentum if the position continues to increase, but the weak spot follow-up and high inventory pressure will limit the upward space [53][57] Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The prices in most domestic float glass regions have remained stable, and the prices of large and small plates in Shahe have fluctuated. The news of production line shutdown in Shahe has boosted market sentiment, but the market trading atmosphere has weakened as the futures price has declined. Some float glass factories have good sales at the beginning of the month and are strongly willing to maintain prices [59][60] Methanol - Methanol is operating weakly. The spot price index has declined, and the prices in some cities have decreased. The market atmosphere is active, and the futures price has rebounded after a decline. The downstream demand is rational, and the MTO industry operating rate has decreased. The supply has increased significantly in early November, and the import logistics contradiction may be alleviated. The MTO industry is under pressure, and the profit has been compressed. The macro driving force has weakened, and the industrial chain fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to whether the return of port goods to the inland will support the price [62][66] Urea - Urea is oscillating in the short term. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has increased slightly this week. The agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, but the industrial and reserve demand has increased appropriately. The spot trading has improved, and the futures price is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the overall spot trading volume today [67][70] Styrene - Styrene is weakly oscillating. The contradiction in styrene is not significant, and the absolute valuation of pure benzene is low. The chemical fundamentals are still weak, but the gasoline blending spread has opened, and attention should be paid to the incremental demand. Pure benzene is facing triple pressures: weak downstream demand, poor purchasing willingness, and increasing supply. The downstream profit has been squeezed, and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of downstream solids has accumulated rapidly, and there is no sign of improvement in demand in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the marginal increase in actual orders due to the easing of the Sino-US trade war. In the short term, the absolute price of pure benzene is oscillating, and it is not suitable to short further [71][72] Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has changed little. The domestic soda ash market is stable and oscillating, and the price of light soda ash of some enterprises has increased. The production devices of soda ash enterprises have not changed significantly, and the supply is stable. The downstream demand is stable, and most buyers purchase at low prices. The market is expected to be stable and oscillating in the short term [74] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The demand improvement is limited, and the valuation of the futures market is high. The prices of CP paper goods for propane and butane in December and January have declined [83] - **Propylene**: The upstream devices are in a loss state, and attention should be paid to production reduction operations. The PDH operating rate has increased this week, while the MTBE and alkylation operating rates have changed slightly [79] PVC - PVC still has pressure in the trend. The成交 price of the domestic PVC spot market has continued to decline slightly. The supply-demand expectation contradiction has increased, and the market has returned to the fundamental downward trend. There is no macro expectation support in the short term. The profit pattern of the PVC industry chain is difficult to sustain, and the supply will maintain a high operating rate in winter. The domestic demand for PVC downstream products related to real estate is still weak, the inventory transfer to the downstream is not smooth, and the social inventory is higher than the same period last year. The PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the long-side delivery pressure is large in the future. The high production and high inventory structure of the PVC market are difficult to change, and the export growth may slow down due to policy disturbances. Attention can be paid to the production reduction efforts of the supply side during the peak maintenance season next year [86] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is mainly oscillating and still weaker than low-sulfur fuel oil. The prices of high-sulfur fuel oil futures have declined, and the trading volume and open interest have changed slightly. The spot prices of high-sulfur fuel oil in various regions have also declined [89] - **Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is strong in the short term, and the price spread between high and low-sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continues to rise. The prices of low-sulfur fuel oil futures have changed slightly, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased. The spot prices of low-sulfur fuel oil in various regions have also declined slightly [89] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is oscillating. The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) have increased, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. The freight rates of the European and US West routes have fluctuated. The spot freight rates of the European line have decreased, while the freight rates of the US West route have increased [91]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - PX is in a high - level volatile market with increasing supply and decreasing demand, following PTA unilaterally. Attention should be paid to shorting PXN on rallies. PTA is in a volatile market with weak cost support and oversupply, and shorting processing fees on rallies is recommended. MEG has a large supply pressure, with its price hitting a new low, and reverse - calendar spread trading on rallies is advised [1][9][10]. Summary According to Related Contents Market Dynamics - PX: The price of naphtha fell at the end of the session. The price of PX also dropped today. There were price discussions for December and January but no transactions. The market is also concerned about the 2026 PX term contracts [3]. - PTA: The spot price of PTA dropped to 4520 yuan/ton today [6]. - MEG: The planned arrival quantity at major ports from November 3rd to 9th is about 18.9 tons. A 260,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting [6]. - Polyester: The sales of polyester filaments in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally weak, and the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fibers are also light [7]. Price and Spread Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures had different price changes and spreads. For example, the closing price of PX futures was 6660, up 20 with a 0.30% increase [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, etc. all had price changes. The PX CFR China price was 816 dollars/ton, down 4 dollars [2]. - Processing Fees: The PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, etc. also changed. The PX - naphtha spread was 239.83 dollars, down 3.88 dollars [2]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all - 1, indicating a weak trend [8]. Views and Suggestions - PX: Supply is tight, demand is high, and the PX - MX spread has strengthened. The domestic device start - up rate has reached a new high. Cost - end aromatics blending demand supports valuation. Pay attention to the future aromatics logistics changes [9]. - PTA: Cost support is weak, supply is excessive. Although the short - term inventory accumulation pressure has eased, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear. Short processing fees when they are above 300 [9]. - MEG: The price hits a new low, the start - up rate of existing devices increases, and the supply pressure is large. The port inventory accumulation will accelerate. Reverse - calendar spread trading on rallies is recommended [10][11].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report Core Views - Different commodities are expected to have various trends, including high - level oscillations, weak trends, and sideways movements. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillation market, while MEG shows a weak trend [2][4]. Group 2: Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: It is in a high - level oscillation market with supply increasing and demand decreasing. Aromatic blending oil demand supports the valuation. Pay attention to future aromatic logistics changes and consider shorting PXN on rallies [2][9][10]. - **PTA**: Demand has a positive feedback effect, and it can be regarded as relatively strong in the short - term. The polyester load starts to rebound unexpectedly, and the short - term inventory accumulation pressure in November eases. However, the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and short above a processing fee of 300 [2][10]. - **MEG**: The unilateral price hits a new low, and the supply pressure is still large. Multiple coal - chemical plants plan to conduct maintenance, but overall, the supply pressure from mid - November remains significant. Consider reverse arbitrage on the spread [2][10][11]. Rubber - It is expected to move sideways. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The price of Thai raw materials and the operating rate of enterprises are relatively stable [2][12][15]. Synthetic Rubber - It is in a weak operation due to the collapse of costs. The price of butadiene continues to decline, and the inventory in ports has increased. The cost of butadiene is the main factor affecting the price of synthetic rubber [2][16][18]. Asphalt - It follows the oscillation of crude oil. The inventory of sample factories and social warehouses has decreased. The opening rate of refineries has decreased slightly, and the inventory rate has also decreased [2][19][31]. LLDPE - Planned unplanned maintenance has increased, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The demand for agricultural films is showing signs of peaking, and the overall market is in an oscillatory situation. The short - term downward driving force is not strong, but medium - term supply - demand pressure exists [2][32][33]. PP - It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term. Although there is a short - term rebound due to factors such as the rebound of oil prices and supply reduction, the long - term downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally resolve, so it may be in a weak - oscillation pattern [2][36][37]. Caustic Soda - It has cost support and is in an oscillatory market. The price of liquid chlorine has dropped significantly, increasing the cost of caustic soda. However, the high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the demand side has limited support [2][40][42]. Pulp - It is expected to move sideways. The futures market is relatively strong, but the spot market is restricted by high inventory and weak demand. The trading volume and open interest in the futures market have increased [2][46][50]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The spot market price fluctuates, with some areas increasing and some decreasing. The market demand is supported by rigid demand, but the trading atmosphere is generally average [2][51][52]. Methanol - It is in a weak operation. The supply is high, and the demand side, especially the MTO industry, has increased pressure and compressed profits. The macro - driving force has weakened [2][55][59]. Urea - It is under oscillatory pressure. The supply increases as plants resume production, and both export and domestic demand are weak. The cost support is limited, and the downward trend is expected in the medium - term [2][60][63]. Styrene - It is in a weak - oscillation state. Pure benzene has triple pressures, but the ethylbenzene blending oil window has reopened, so the short - term absolute price is expected to oscillate [2][64][65]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply side has a slight decline, and the downstream demand maintains low - price rigid - demand replenishment. The market is in a weak - stable oscillation in the short - term [2][66][68]. LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Demand improvement is limited, and the valuation of the futures price is high. The price of CP paper goods has dropped [2][71][76]. - **Propylene**: The supply is expected to shrink, and the loose pattern has improved. The PDH opening rate has increased [2][72]. PVC - It is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is stable and increasing, the demand in the north weakens seasonally, and the export price competition pressure is large. The cost support is weak, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern is difficult to change [2][79][81]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It is in a relatively strong oscillation but weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short - term. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: There is a short - term adjustment at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][82]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is short - term weak, waiting for the guidance of cabin opening. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show different trends, and the trading volume and open interest of futures contracts have changed [2][84].