Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The silicon-manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000. The macro environment has policy information disturbances, causing the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The strengthening of coal supports the rebound of alloys [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Summary - **Macro**: China's electricity consumption accounts for 30% of terminal energy consumption, higher than the world average, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. Baosteel identified long products and thick plates as new strategic core products. The personal mortgage loan balance of six major state-owned banks decreased by 107.8 billion yuan compared to the beginning of the year, showing a three - year downward trend [6]. - **Overseas**: The US postponed trade threats against China and considered sanctions on Russia. Trump signed a US - Japan trade executive order, imposing up to 15% tariffs on most Japanese products. Many Asian and Middle Eastern investment institutions are avoiding US assets due to concerns about Trump's policies [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Since mid - May, production has been on the rise. After the price rebound, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons. Downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to military parade production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Considering the macro environment, the market is volatile. Coal strength supports alloy rebound. The silicon - manganese market is expected to oscillate between 5800 and 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 5, the open interest of silicon - manganese futures contracts was 570,700 lots, an increase of 24,573 lots. The spread between the May - 1st contracts of silicon - manganese decreased by 4 points. The number of silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 3707 to 62,860, and the spread between the January contracts of silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon increased by 32 points to 290 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 5, the spot price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 244 yuan/ton, a decrease of 172 points [23]. 3. Industrial Chain - **Production**: According to Mysteel, the national capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 46.45%, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily average output was 30,405 tons, a decrease of 80 tons. The weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel types decreased by 2.36% to 123,668 tons, and the national weekly supply decreased by 0.26% to 212,835 tons. Production has generally been rising since mid - May, with a slight decline this period [26]. - **Inventory**: As of September 4, the total inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of national capacity) was 160,500 tons, an increase of 11,500 tons. Inventory in Inner Mongolia decreased by 2000 tons, while that in Ningxia increased by 11,000 tons, etc. [31]. - **Upstream**: As of September 5, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 33.8 yuan/ton - degree, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 1, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 32,000 tons to 4.414 million tons. The arrival of South African manganese ore increased by 35% to 506,900 tons, while that from Australia decreased by 87.4% to 20,900 tons, etc. On September 5, the spot production cost in the northern region decreased by 10 to 5830 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; in the southern region, the cost decreased by 10 to 6240 yuan/ton, and the profit was - 580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33][41][44]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.2884 million tons, a decrease of 112,900 tons week - on - week but an increase of 62,300 tons year - on - year. The silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS in August was 6000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to July [48].