4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has increasing supply and demand, with rising total inventory. The fundamentals of steel and raw materials are weakening, but market expectations remain positive, and the price is expected to be volatile and weak [3]. - The iron ore price is relatively firm, and it is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term, with prices fluctuating within a smaller range [20]. - The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - The ferroalloy market has high supply pressure, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline. Its price is affected by the volatile coking coal price [46]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt on the cost side [60]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: This week, the supply and demand of the five major steel products both increased, and the total inventory continued to accumulate. The de - stocking pressure on the finished product side is prominent. The fundamentals of raw materials are also weakening [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil changed compared with the previous day. For example, the rebar 01 contract closed at 3195 yuan/ton, down from 3200 yuan/ton the previous day [4]. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The iron ore price is relatively firm in the black market. The price rebound space is limited due to the lack of strong demand or policy drivers. It is expected to be stronger than the steel price in the short - term and fluctuate within a smaller range [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 770 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 240.75 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.09 tons. The 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons, with a weekly increase of 25.93 tons [24]. Coal - Coke - **Market Situation**: The short - term speculative sentiment in the market has cooled down, but the macro - sentiment may fluctuate widely. In the future, it may return to the fundamental logic, and attention should be paid to the change in finished product inventory [30]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 120 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloy - **Market Situation**: Driven by profits, the ferroalloy output is increasing, with high supply pressure. There is a possibility of inventory accumulation and price decline, and its price is affected by the coking coal price [46]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [47]. Soda Ash - **Market Situation**: The supply of soda ash remains high, the rigid demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach new highs. The cost has increased slightly, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [60]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1379 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.25% [61]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak production and sales. The near - end spot is under obvious pressure, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term emotional changes [87]. - **Price Data**: On August 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1269 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a daily increase of 1.36% [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of coking coal and coke are fluctuating as the price increase has not been implemented yet; glass and soda ash prices are oscillating within a narrow range due to supply disturbances; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices are also fluctuating with the intertwining of long - short games [1][3] - Glass is expected to be weak and oscillating, and soda ash is also expected to be weak and oscillating; silicomanganese and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate [2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market was mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the speculative sentiment weakened. This week, the开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 63.606 million heavy boxes, a 0.28% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market oscillated weakly. The downstream spot market was mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. This week, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 88.48%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week; the output was 771,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.9108 million tons, a 0.9% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: The supply - demand contradiction of glass is still large. With the previous price increase, the glass output increased significantly, and the pressure to reduce high inventory is great. The premium of the futures market has been quickly repaired. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies on the supply and demand sides of glass [1] - Soda Ash: With the implementation of new production capacity in the later stage and the lack of expectation of a significant increase in soda ash consumption, the supply - demand imbalance of soda ash will continue to intensify. Therefore, it is still necessary to restrict the release of production capacity and output through losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the supply side such as the progress of new production capacity commissioning [1] Strategy - Glass: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda Ash: Weak and oscillating [2] Silicomanganese and Ferrosilicon Market Analysis - Silicomanganese: The long - short game sentiment in the silicomanganese futures market continued, and the market oscillated within a narrow range. The spot market quotation did not change significantly. The price of silicomanganese 6517 in the northern market was 5,700 - 5,750 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was about 5,750 - 5,800 yuan/ton [3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated within a narrow range, with a 0.28% increase. In the spot market, the market sentiment was average, and the spot price was slightly adjusted. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon natural lump in the main production area was 5,300 - 5,400 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,800 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicomanganese: The output of silicomanganese increased month - on - month, and the inventory continued to decline, being at the median level in the same period in recent years. With the slight increase in the manganese ore quotation, the cost of silicomanganese increased. The market still shows an oversupply situation, and it is necessary to suppress the output release through a certain degree of losses. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and shipping situation of manganese ore [3] - Ferrosilicon: With the profit repair, the output of ferrosilicon increased rapidly, the demand decreased slightly week - on - week, and the inventory continued to decline. In the long run, the ferrosilicon production capacity is relatively loose. In the later stage, attention should be paid to the cost support and the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [3] Strategy - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4]

Report Title - "Iron Alloy Morning Report" [1] Report Date - August 22, 2025 [2] Key Information on Silicon Iron Price - For natural silicon iron blocks: in Ningxia 72, the spot price is 5330 with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 170; in Inner Mongolia 72, it's 5300, down 50 daily and 150 weekly; in Qinghai 72, 5300, down 50 daily and 200 weekly; in Shaanxi 72, 5300, no daily change and a 150 weekly decrease; in Shaanxi 75, 5900, no daily change and a 100 weekly increase [2]. - For qualified silicon iron blocks in Jiangsu 72, the spot price is 5600, with no daily change and a 50 weekly decrease [2]. - For silicon iron export prices in Tianjin 72, it's 1055, no daily change and a 30 weekly increase; in Tianjin 75, it's 1110, up 10 daily and 35 weekly [2]. Futures - The main contract price of silicon iron is 5638, up 16 daily and down 106 weekly; the 01 contract is 5614, up 14 daily and down 290 weekly; the 05 contract is 5734, up 6 daily and down 304 weekly; the 09 contract is 5454, up 8 daily and down 290 weekly [2]. Spreads - The main - month basis is - 8, down 16 daily and 64 weekly; the 1 - 5 month spread is - 120, up 8 daily and 14 weekly; the 5 - 9 month spread is 280, down 2 daily and 14 weekly; the 9 - 1 month spread is - 160, down 6 daily and no weekly change; the double - silicon main spread is - 200, up 14 daily and 106 weekly [2]. Key Information on Silicon Manganese Price - For silicon manganese production areas: in Inner Mongolia 6517, the ex - factory price is 5750, no daily change and a 50 weekly decrease; in Ningxia 6517, it's 5570, down 30 daily and 300 weekly; in Guangxi 6517, 5780, down 20 daily and 120 weekly; in Guizhou 6517, 5730, down 20 daily and 140 weekly; in Yunnan 6517, 5730, down 20 daily and 140 weekly; in Guangxi 6014, 5250, down 50 daily and 50 weekly [2]. Futures - The main contract price of silicon manganese is 5838, up 2 daily and down 212 weekly; the 01 contract is 5838, up 2 daily and down 306 weekly; the 05 contract is 5888, up 2 daily and down 290 weekly; the 09 contract is 5746, down 10 daily and 304 weekly [2]. Spreads - The main - month basis is 132, down 32 daily and up 82 weekly; the 1 - 5 month spread is - 50, no daily change and a 16 weekly decrease; the 5 - 9 month spread is 142, up 12 daily and 14 weekly; the 9 - 1 month spread is - 92, down 12 daily and up 2 weekly [2]

| | | | 11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月21日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | な女女 | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 證時 | な女女 | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面弱势震荡。 本周螺纹表需有所回升，产量继续回落，库存延续上升态势。热卷需求继续好转，产量同步回升，库存继 续累积。铁水维持高位，市场面临负反馈压力，不过库存整体水平偏低，空间并不是太大，阅兵临近关注唐山等地限产力度。 从下游行业看，地产销售降幅扩大，投资端继续大幅下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF51)**: The spot price is 5728, the futures price is 5622, the basis is 106, and the basis rate is 1.89% with a historical quantile of 70.60% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The spot price is 6020, the futures price is 5836, the basis is 184, and the basis rate is 3.15% with a historical quantile of 56.80% [1] - **Rebar (RB2510)**: The spot price is 3402, the futures price is 3290, the basis is 112, and the basis rate is 5.04% with a historical quantile of 65.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510)**: The spot price is 3430, the futures price is 3402, the basis is 28, and the basis rate is 0.82% with a historical quantile of 29.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The spot price is 826, the futures price is 769, the basis is 57, and the basis rate is 7.35% with a historical quantile of 47.10% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: The spot price is 1678, the futures price is 1624, the basis is 54, and the basis rate is 3.21% with a historical quantile of 32.64% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The spot price is 1175, the futures price is 1163, the basis is 12, and the basis rate is 1.03% with a historical quantile of 27.90% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2509)**: The spot price is 79100, the futures price is 78890, the basis is 210, and the basis rate is 0.27% with a historical quantile of 67.29% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2510)**: The spot price is 20590, the futures price is 20545, the basis is 45, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 63.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 3245, the futures price is 3120, the basis is 125, and the basis rate is 4.01% with a historical quantile of 66.07% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2510)**: The spot price is 22205, the futures price is 22130, the basis is 75, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 33.95% [1] - **Tin (SN2509)**: The spot price is 268090, the futures price is 266200, the basis is 1890, and the basis rate is 0.70% with a historical quantile of 10.41% [1] - **Nickel (NI2510)**: The spot price is 120825, the futures price is 120330, the basis is 495, and the basis rate is 0.41% with a historical quantile of 80.00% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2510)**: The spot price is 13270, the futures price is 12885, the basis is 385, and the basis rate is 2.99% with a historical quantile of 77.68% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: The spot price is 87540, the futures price is 85700, the basis is 1840, and the basis rate is 2.10% with a historical quantile of 27.31% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (212511)**: The spot price is 9250, the futures price is 8390, the basis is 860, and the basis rate is 10.25% with a historical quantile of 57.57% [1] Precious Metals - **Gold (AU2510)**: The spot price is 772.7, the futures price is 769.8, the basis is 2.9, and the basis rate is 0.37% with a historical quantile of 24.00% [1] - **Silver (AG2510)**: The spot price is 9042.0, the futures price is 9022.0, the basis is 20.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 42.80% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The spot price is 3160.0, the futures price is 2980, the basis is 180.0, and the basis rate is 5.70% with a historical quantile of 4.20% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: The spot price is 8500, the futures price is 8414.0, the basis is 86.0, and the basis rate is 1.02% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: The spot price is 9554.0, the futures price is 9500, the basis is 54.0, and the basis rate is 0.57% with a historical quantile of 7.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: The spot price is 2627.0, the futures price is 2610, the basis is 17.0, and the basis rate is 0.65% with a historical quantile of 44.50% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: The spot price is 9950, the futures price is 9828.0, the basis is 122.0, and the basis rate is 1.24% with a historical quantile of 49.40% [1] - **Corn (C2511)**: The spot price is 2260, the futures price is 2170.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 4.15% with a historical quantile of 86.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: The spot price is 2730, the futures price is 2489.0, the basis is 241.0, and the basis rate is 9.68% with a historical quantile of 94.60% [1] - **Live Hogs (H251)**: The spot price is 13850, the futures price is 13775.0, the basis is 75.0, and the basis rate is 0.54% with a historical quantile of 44.00% [1] - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The spot price is 3310, the futures price is 3072.0, the basis is 238.0, and the basis rate is 7.75% with a historical quantile of 51.20% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: The spot price is 15080, the futures price is 14055.0, the basis is 1025.0, and the basis rate is 7.29% with a historical quantile of 62.50% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: The spot price is 6030, the futures price is 5676.0, the basis is 354.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 6.65% [1] - **Apples (AP510)**: The spot price is 8600, the futures price is 8064.0, the basis is 536.0, and the basis rate is 6.24% with a historical quantile of 42.00% [1] - **Jujubes (CJ601)**: The spot price is 11530.0, the futures price is 8300, the basis is 3230.0, and the basis rate is 28.01% with a historical quantile of 3.00% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX511)**: The spot price is 6894.8, the futures price is 6844.0, the basis is 50.8, and the basis rate is 0.74% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: The spot price is 4778.0, the futures price is 4705.0, the basis is 73.0, and the basis rate is 1.53% with a historical quantile of 25.40% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: The spot price is 4515.0, the futures price is 4477.0, the basis is 38.0, and the basis rate is 0.85% with a historical quantile of 72.90% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510)**: The spot price is 6504.0, the futures price is 6490.0, the basis is 14.0, and the basis rate is 0.22% with a historical quantile of 40.20% [1] - **Styrene (EB2510)**: The spot price is 7285.0, the futures price is 7275.0, the basis is 10.0, and the basis rate is 0.14% with a historical quantile of 24.80% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: The spot price is 2424.0, the futures price is 2300.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 5.12% with a historical quantile of 7.40% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: The spot price is 1776.0, the futures price is 1770.0, the basis is - 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.34% with a historical quantile of 10.70% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: The spot price is 7347.0, the futures price is 7255.0, the basis is 92.0, and the basis rate is 1.25% with a historical quantile of 4.00% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: The spot price is 7056.0, the futures price is 7050.0, the basis is 6.0, and the basis rate is 0.09% with a historical quantile of 21.60% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: The spot price is 5008.0, the futures price is 4720.0, the basis is 288.0, and the basis rate is 5.75% with a historical quantile of 8.70% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: The spot price is 2655.0, the futures price is 2625.0, the basis is 30.0, and the basis rate is 1.13% with a historical quantile of 43.60% [1] - **LPG (PG2510)**: The spot price is 4478.0, the futures price is 4354.0, the basis is 124.0, and the basis rate is 2.85% with a historical quantile of 37.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2510)**: The spot price is 3530.0, the futures price is 3454.0, the basis is 76.0, and the basis rate is 2.20% with a historical quantile of 66.80% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2510)**: The spot price is 11900.0, the futures price is 11715.0, the basis is 185.0, and the basis rate is 1.58% with a historical quantile of 49.60% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: The spot price is 1162.0, the futures price is 1072.0, the basis is 90.0, and the basis rate is 8.40% with a historical quantile of 34.03% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: The spot price is 1209.0, the futures price is 1309.0, the basis is - 100.0, and the basis rate is 8.27% with a historical quantile of 5.88% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: The spot price is 15675.0, the futures price is 14600.0, the basis is 1075.0, and the basis rate is 7.36% with a historical quantile of 23.75% [1] Stock Index Futures - **IF2509.CFF**: The spot price is 4271.4, the futures price is 4270.0, the basis is - 1.4, and the basis rate is 0.03% with a historical quantile of 58.30% [1] - **IH2509.CFE**: The spot price is 2851.2, the futures price is 2847.0, the basis is 4.2, and the basis rate is 0.15% with a historical quantile of 80.70% [1] - **IC2509.CFE**: The spot price is 6728.1, the futures price is 6695.2, the basis is - 32.9, and the basis rate is 0.49% with a historical quantile of 37.40% [1] - **IM2509.CFE**: The spot price is 7305.5, the futures price is 7276.0, the basis is - 29.5, and the basis rate is 0.40% with a historical quantile of 46.90% [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **2 - Year Treasury Bond (TS2509)**: The spot price is 102.32, the futures price is 100.26, the basis is 0.02, and the basis rate is 0.02% with a historical quantile of 34.10% [1] - **5 - Year Treasury Bond (TF2509)**: The spot price is 105.45, the futures price is 100.48, the basis is 0.06, and the basis rate is 0.06% with a historical quantile of 36.80% [1] - **10 - Year Treasury Bond (T2509)**: The spot price is 107.94, the futures price is 100.37, the basis is 0.05, and the basis rate is 0.05% with a historical quantile of 21.70% [1] - **30 - Year Treasury Bond (TL2509)**: The spot price is 131.12, the futures price is 116.24, the basis is 0.01, and the basis rate is

铁合金早报 库存 成本利润 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 100000 110000 01/01 01/24 02/16 03/11 04/03 04/26 05/19 06/11 07/04 07/27 08/19 09/11 10/04 10/27 11/19 12/12 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企业：库存：宁夏（周） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 01/01 01/26 02/20 03/17 04/11 05/06 05/31 06/25 07/20 08/14 09/08 10/03 10/28 11/22 12/17 硅铁：60家样本企 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coke: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Coking coal: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing weak demand in the off - season, but with the rapid release of pressure, it is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the changes in the commodity market trend [2] - The iron ore market has limited fundamental contradictions in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have sufficient carbon element supply, high downstream hot metal levels, and their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with large short - term volatility and relatively small downside space [4][6] - The silicomanganese market has good demand, and its price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal [7] - The ferrosilicon market has good overall demand, and its price follows the trend of silicomanganese and is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The thread steel's apparent demand continues to decline, production slightly decreases, and inventory accumulation accelerates; the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand improves, production slightly increases, and inventory accumulation slows down [2] - The hot metal remains at a high level, and the market still faces negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level is low [2] - From the downstream industries, domestic demand is weak, and steel exports remain at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, global iron ore shipments are seasonally rising, and domestic arrivals are increasing, with port inventories continuing to rise [3] - On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel is declining, hot metal remains at a high level, and short - term iron ore demand is supported by high hot metal, but there is a production reduction expectation for hot metal in the future [3] Coke - Due to the approaching major event, there is a new expectation of production restrictions for coking plants in East China [4] - After the seventh round of price increases for coke, coking profits have improved, and daily production has slightly increased [4] - Coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is good [4] Coking Coal - The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot transaction market is at a good level, and the transaction price is mainly rising [6] - The total inventory of coking coal has decreased month - on - month, and the inventory at the production end has decreased less [6] Silicomanganese - Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of South32's Australian mines [7] - The weekly production of silicomanganese continues to increase, and the inventory has not increased yet, with good spot and futures demand [7] - Manganese ore prices have slightly decreased this week, and manufacturers have stocked up in advance due to the approaching major event [7] Ferrosilicon - Hot metal production has slightly decreased, remaining above 240 [8] - Export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a small marginal impact [8] - Ferrosilicon supply has increased significantly, and the spot and futures demand in the market is good, with a slight reduction in on - balance - sheet inventory [8]

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/20 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2511、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall market presents a complex situation with different trends in various commodities. Some commodities face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by geopolitical, policy, and seasonal factors. Summary by Commodity - **Crude Oil**: The market is in a volatile state. After the third - quarter peak season, there is pressure for accelerated inventory accumulation. The price center may decline in the medium - term, but short - term options strategies are recommended for risk - hedging [2]. - **Precious Metals**: They are in a weak operation recently due to the decline in market risk - aversion sentiment. Investors should wait patiently for callback layout positions [3]. - **Copper**: The price has fallen below the MA60 moving average. The market is cautious about economic growth risks. Short - term operations are recommended based on price levels [4]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: - **Aluminum**: It shows short - term fluctuations. The inventory peak may be approaching, and the lower support level is around 20,300 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: It is in a weak and volatile state due to supply surplus [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of Shanghai Aluminum. There is a possibility that the cross - variety spread with AL will gradually narrow [6]. - **Zinc**: The supply has increased, and demand is weak. The price has fallen for 5 consecutive days. Be vigilant about macro - sentiment fluctuations in the "Golden September and Silver October" period [7]. - **Lead**: The consumption is not as strong as expected in the peak season, but the cost provides support. There is an expectation of demand recovery in the future [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel has slightly adjusted. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but there are still uncertainties in the market [9]. - **Tin**: The price of London Tin is relatively strong. The decline in Indonesian exports and low overseas inventory support the price [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price is in a volatile state. The market trading is active, and short - term long positions are recommended [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price has fallen. The policy details have not been updated, and there is an opportunity to go long below 50,000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [13]. - **Steel Products**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has fallen. The demand is weak in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. Pay attention to the production restriction in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing seasonally, and the demand is supported by high - level hot metal in the short - term. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [15]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a volatile state. The production restriction expectation of coking plants is rising, and the inventory is decreasing [16]. - **Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron**: The price is in a downward trend. They are affected by the "anti - involution" policy and follow the trend of coking coal [17][18]. - **Shipping Index**: The spot price is declining, and the market is in a bearish atmosphere [19]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively strong. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East is increasing [20]. - **Asphalt**: The demand is expected to recover in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 3,400 - 3,500 yuan/ton [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market is stable. The domestic market is under pressure, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [22]. Group 2: Chemicals Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The chemical market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, policy, and cost. Different chemicals show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Urea**: The export policy news affects the market. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the price is affected by market sentiment [23]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term market is weak, and attention should be paid to macro - and market - sentiment changes [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price has fallen at night. The fundamentals are improving, and monthly - spread band - trading is recommended [25]. - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern. The cost provides support, and the supply and demand are relatively balanced [26]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The supply and demand of these chemicals are generally weak, and the price is under pressure [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a weak operation, while caustic soda is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term but with limited long - term increase [28]. - **PX and PTA**: The price has fallen at night. The demand for polyester is expected to increase, and the valuation of PX is expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has fallen slightly. It is in a short - term low - level fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery rhythm [30]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to be long - configured in the medium - term. The processing margin of bottle chip is in a low - level fluctuation [31]. - **Glass**: The price has fallen at night. The demand is weak, but the cost increase may prevent it from breaking the previous low [32]. - **Rubber**: The supply of natural rubber is increasing, and the demand is general. The market sentiment is pessimistic [33]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [34]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Agricultural products are affected by factors such as weather, policy, and supply - demand balance. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is in good condition, but there are challenges in the future. The domestic soybean meal price has increased, and the market is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The price has fallen. Be cautious about short - term fluctuations and maintain a long - position strategy in the long - term [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The price is in a weak state. It is expected to have a short - term weak rebound, and attention should be paid to new developments in imports [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price has fallen. The supply has increased through auction, and attention should be paid to weather, policy, and imported soybean performance [38]. - **Corn**: The domestic corn auction has a low success rate. The US corn is in good condition, and the domestic corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [39]. - **Pig**: The short - term spot price has increased slightly, but the medium - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended for industries to hedge at high prices [40]. - **Egg**: The futures price is in an accelerated decline. The high - capacity pressure requires price decline for de - capacity. Attention should be paid to various factors [41]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen slightly. The domestic cotton price is affected by downstream orders and production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [43]. - **Apple**: The price is in a volatile state. The market focuses on the new - season production estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Wood**: The price is in a volatile state. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price has fallen. The inventory is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Group 4: Financial Products Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The financial market is affected by geopolitical, policy, and macro - economic factors. Different products show different trends. Summary by Commodity - **Stock Index**: The stock market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The geopolitical pressure on market risk preference has been relieved. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is difficult to recover significantly in the short - term. The yield curve is expected to steepen [47].