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需求整体仍有韧性 短期内硅铁维持回调偏多思路
Jin Tou Wang· 2026-01-29 06:02
Core Viewpoint - Silicon iron futures experienced significant fluctuations, with the main contract reaching 5744.00 CNY/ton, marking a substantial increase of 2.32% [1] Market Data Summary - On January 28, the number of silicon iron futures warehouse receipts recorded was 8710, a decrease of 15 from the previous trading day; over the past week, warehouse receipts have decreased by 1034, a decline of 10.61%; in the last month, the total decrease in warehouse receipts was 3050, representing a drop of 25.94% [2] - The cash ex-factory price for 72 silicon iron natural blocks in the main production area was reported at 5250-5350 CNY/ton, while the price for 75 silicon iron was 5750-5850 CNY/ton [2] - As of January 28, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 246,600 long positions and 265,100 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.93. The net position was -18,500, a decrease of 559 from the previous day [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that the supply and demand for alloys remained relatively stable, with low silicon iron production and inventory levels. The manganese silicon supply and demand showed a month-on-month recovery, indicating a healthy overall fundamental outlook. However, the black series lacks expected drivers, leading to a narrow and weak fluctuation in double silicon. It is anticipated that the electricity price for January in the northwest will increase by approximately 0.03 CNY, raising costs by over 100 CNY, providing short-term support for alloy costs, with a bias towards a corrective upward trend [4] - Guotou Anxin Futures reported a rebound in prices during the day. Although electricity costs in some production areas have decreased, the price of Lantan has slightly increased, and the main production areas continue to operate at a loss. The demand side for pig iron production remains at a seasonal low. Export demand remains above 30,000 tons, with marginal impacts being minimal. The production of metallic magnesium has increased month-on-month, with secondary demand showing marginal improvement, indicating overall demand resilience. Silicon iron supply has not changed significantly, with a slight decrease in inventory. Prices are influenced by oversupply and the ongoing concerns regarding "anti-involution," suggesting a primary strategy of shorting on rebounds [4]