合金正套走势
Search documents
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 09:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon industries remain unresolved, and costs provide bottom - line support. The prices of alloys this week fluctuated around the cost line, with an expected accumulation of fundamental contradictions, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes of furnace charge negative feedback [3][5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Manganese - silicon Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the manganese - silicon output was 208,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 2.2%. The weekly operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from last week. Guizhou's production expanded as expected, while Yunnan's production contracted [19]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The overall demand for manganese - silicon was weak. For example, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 240,950 tons, a 0.59 - ton decrease from last week [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 47,940, a decrease of 6,101 week - on - week, equivalent to 239,700 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 30,505 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in September was 15.93 days (+0.95 days). The inventory of 63 domestic manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [30][31][35]. - **Raw Materials**: The global manganese - ore departure volume decreased. The departure volume of Australian and Ghanaian ores decreased week - on - week. Alloy plants' raw - material replenishment led to a continuous increase in port clearance. After southern plants enter the dry season, they may cut production, and manganese ore may maintain a slow inventory - accumulation rhythm later. The total inventory on October 10 was 445.7 tons (a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period) [42][49][52]. Silicon - iron Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the silicon - iron output was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly operating rate was 35.48%, a 0.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The reduction in production was mainly due to power - generation maintenance in Shaanxi factories, but the current willingness of major producing areas to cut production is not obvious [65]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The non - steel demand, such as stainless - steel production and metal production, showed an upward trend. The silicon - iron export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous month [78][79][80]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the inventory of 60 domestic silicon - iron sample enterprises was 69,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,050 tons. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 12,205, a decrease of 2,835 week - on - week, equivalent to 61,025 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 14,175 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in September was 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [89]. - **Cost**: The raw - material prices decreased, and the production - cost center of gravity of silicon - iron moved down, but the decline was limited [93].