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硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告-20251123
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-23 12:00
资料来源:Mysteel、iFInd、国泰君安期货研究所 2 资料来源 Mysteel 、iFInd国泰君安期货研究所 : 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号: Z0021184 金园园 (联系人)从业资格号:F03134630 日期: 2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点:原料端情绪降温,合金补跌偏弱 | 基本面 | 条目 | | 硅铁(宁夏) | | | 锰硅(内蒙古) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | 当期值 | 环比 | 同比 | | 供应 | 周产量(周) | 10.83 | -0.73% | -10.57% | 19.69 | -1.33% | 3.06% | | | 进口数量(9月) | 1.08 | 4.86% | -15.48% | 0.17 | -3.56% | -49.82% | | 需求 | 出 ...
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20251109
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-11-09 09:43
Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: November 9, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The prices of alloys this week were affected by both macro and sector sentiment, showing an oscillating trend with strong support at the bottom of the market. The current fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and demand may shrink due to steel mills' production cuts. Continuous monitoring of the supply changes on the alloy side is necessary [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - This week, alloy prices were affected by macro and sector sentiment, showing an oscillating trend with strong support at the bottom of the market. The fundamental contradictions continued to accumulate, and demand may shrink due to steel mills' production cuts. Attention should be paid to whether the steel mills' production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - This week, silicon ferrosilicon production was 114,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.80%. The main production areas currently have no clear intention to cut production [4][56]. Demand - In September, the export volume was 40,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.57%. However, from the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased, and the demand for silicon ferrosilicon may be weakly supported [4][70]. Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 60 sample enterprises was 78,690 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.31%, reaching a record high. There may be inventory pressure at the end of the month [4][78]. Profit - The weekly on - screen profit was 7.00, a week-on-week decrease of 92.96%, and the spot profit was -369.00, a week-on-week decrease of 67.35%. The profit was compressed with the market [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Supply - This week, manganese silicon production was 201,900 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.81%. The production was at a relatively high level. The cost side was firm, but attention should be paid to the production plans in northern regions [4][18]. Demand - The steelmaking demand was weakly supported as the molten iron output decreased. The steel mills' procurement was mainly based on rigid demand, and the overall demand may weaken [26]. Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 319,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.59%. The steel mills maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the short - term downstream demand may weaken [4][31]. Profit - The weekly on - screen profit was 8.03, a week-on-week decrease of 57.38%, and the spot profit was -131.97, a week-on-week decrease of 41.65%. The profit was significantly reduced [4]. 4. Macro and Micro Environment Macro - Domestically, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued the "Announcement on Tax Policies Related to Gold." Overseas, the US "small non - farm" ADP employment in October increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, indicating signs of stability in the labor market [5]. Micro - The molten iron output continued to shrink, weakly supporting the demand for raw materials. The fundamental contradictions of alloys continued to accumulate, and attention should be paid to whether the steel mills' production restrictions will trigger a negative feedback cycle for furnace materials [5].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20251019
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-19 09:17
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental contradictions in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon industries remain unresolved, and costs provide bottom - line support. The prices of alloys this week fluctuated around the cost line, with an expected accumulation of fundamental contradictions, and attention should be paid to the rhythm changes of furnace charge negative feedback [3][5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Manganese - silicon Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the manganese - silicon output was 208,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 2.2%. The weekly operating rate was 43.28%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from last week. Guizhou's production expanded as expected, while Yunnan's production contracted [19]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The overall demand for manganese - silicon was weak. For example, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.33%, a 0.22 - percentage - point decrease from last week, and the daily average hot - metal output was 240,950 tons, a 0.59 - ton decrease from last week [25]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the number of manganese - silicon warehouse receipts was 47,940, a decrease of 6,101 week - on - week, equivalent to 239,700 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 30,505 tons. The average available days of steel - mill manganese - silicon inventory in September was 15.93 days (+0.95 days). The inventory of 63 domestic manganese - silicon sample enterprises was 262,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [30][31][35]. - **Raw Materials**: The global manganese - ore departure volume decreased. The departure volume of Australian and Ghanaian ores decreased week - on - week. Alloy plants' raw - material replenishment led to a continuous increase in port clearance. After southern plants enter the dry season, they may cut production, and manganese ore may maintain a slow inventory - accumulation rhythm later. The total inventory on October 10 was 445.7 tons (a 2.5 - ton decrease from the previous period) [42][49][52]. Silicon - iron Fundamental Data - **Production**: This week, the silicon - iron output was 112,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons. The weekly operating rate was 35.48%, a 0.46 - percentage - point decrease from last week. The reduction in production was mainly due to power - generation maintenance in Shaanxi factories, but the current willingness of major producing areas to cut production is not obvious [65]. - **Demand**: From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remained at a high level, but the actual output of downstream hot metal decreased week - on - week. The non - steel demand, such as stainless - steel production and metal production, showed an upward trend. The silicon - iron export volume in August was 35,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from the previous month [78][79][80]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the inventory of 60 domestic silicon - iron sample enterprises was 69,080 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,050 tons. The number of silicon - iron warehouse receipts was 12,205, a decrease of 2,835 week - on - week, equivalent to 61,025 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 14,175 tons. The average available days of steel - mill silicon - iron inventory in September was 15.52 days (+0.85 days) [89]. - **Cost**: The raw - material prices decreased, and the production - cost center of gravity of silicon - iron moved down, but the decline was limited [93].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of alloys provides support, and their price trends are volatile. The high - level demand and rising cost of alloys this week offer some price support. However, due to the strong risk - aversion sentiment before the holiday and the game on the capital side, the price trends are volatile. Attention should be paid to the demand support from steel mills' production rhythm, and beware of intensified supply - demand contradictions and price declines if demand falls short of expectations [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Manganese silicon production has been slightly decreasing, with a weekly output of 20.64 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23 tons (- 1.1%), and a weekly operating rate of 44.18%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last week. Some regions show signs of production conversion, but new production plans create a strong bearish sentiment [18]. - **Demand**: Steel mills are conducting centralized steel tenders and pricing, and pre - holiday restocking has accelerated procurement. From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. The overall demand for manganese silicon is weakly stable [23][24]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the number of manganese silicon warehouse receipts is 56,113, a decrease of 4,563 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 280,565 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 22,815 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' manganese silicon inventory is 15.93 days (+ 0.95 days). - The inventory of 63 manganese silicon sample enterprises is 233,800 tons, an increase of 34,900 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Cost**: Overseas mining companies have raised their quotations, and the port inquiry atmosphere is active. The chemical coke quotation has increased, and the manganese ore port quotation is stable. The cost side supports the manganese silicon price [37][50]. 3.2 Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon supply has been increasing, with a weekly output of 11.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.14 tons, and a weekly operating rate of 35.33%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points. Ningxia region's factories maintain high - load operation [54][55]. - **Demand**: - From the performance of downstream steel mills, production remains at a high level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week is 90.86%, an increase of 0.51 percentage points from last week, and the average daily hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 290.28 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.87 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.25%. The stainless - steel crude steel production plan for September is expected to increase by 4.4%. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 6.95 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5.58%. In August, the ferrosilicon export volume was 3.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.6% [70]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 26, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises is 61,460 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,930 tons. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts is 17,373, a decrease of 255 week - on - week, with a converted inventory of 86,865 tons and a warehouse receipt destocking of 1,275 tons. - In September, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory is 15.52 days (+ 0.85 days) [71]. - **Cost**: The prices of semi - coke and oxidized iron scale have been rising, and the production cost in the north has increased month - on - month [75].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-21 08:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and the market resonate, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloys [3][5][6]. Summary by Directory Overall Situation of Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - This week, the continuous high demand and rising cost of alloys pushed the price center slightly higher. The HeSteel tender price exceeded market expectations. In the short - term, the resonance of fundamentals and sentiment drove the alloy prices to move in an oscillating and slightly upward manner [5]. - Domestically, in August, the M2 - M1 gap in China narrowed by 0.4 percentage points, reaching a four - year low, indicating an increase in capital activation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to adjust the weak employment market, which was in line with market expectations [5]. - After the military parade, steel mills resumed production, and the molten iron output recovered, supporting the demand for raw materials. The rising cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon output was 113,100 tons, with a weekly production rate of 34.84%, remaining unchanged from last week. Factories maintained high - load production, and there were still plans to start furnaces in the future [54][59]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week [66]. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, up 78,700 tons month - on - month and down 2.25% year - on - year. In September, the stainless - steel crude steel production plan increased by 4.4% month - on - month. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 69,500 tons, up 1.4% month - on - month and 5.58% year - on - year. In July, the ferrosilicon export volume was 35,900 tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [67][68]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 63,390 tons, down 6,550 tons week - on - week. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 17,628, up 1,163 week - on - week, equivalent to 88,140 tons of inventory, with a weekly increase of 5,815 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory were 14.67 days (+0.42 days) [74]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 1,126,280 lots, and the open interest was 211,764 lots, down 6,200 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions continued to rise. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in main production areas was 5,280 - 5,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 70 - 120 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 367.50 yuan/ton, up 33.39% week - on - week and 353.70% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 18.50 yuan/ton, up 77.58% week - on - week and 81.68% year - on - year [4]. Silicomanganese - **Supply**: - This week's silicomanganese output was 208,775 tons, down 5,355 tons from last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 2.6%. The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week [17]. - Supply in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased. Inner Mongolia had furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and some factories in Ningxia reduced production loads [5]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week. The silicomanganese demand was weakly stable [23]. - In July, the silicomanganese export volume was 2,400 tons, up 106.36% month - on - month and 79.90% year - on - year [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 60,676, down 764 week - on - week, equivalent to 303,380 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 3,820 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' silicomanganese inventory were 14.98 days (+0.74 days). - As of September 19, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the silicomanganese 2601 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 986,446 lots, and the open interest was 334,501 lots, up 8,931 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese in major regions was 5,580 - 6,020 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0 - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 218.34 yuan/ton, up 341.84% week - on - week and down 25.56% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 15.66 yuan/ton, up 88.19% week - on - week and 86.34% year - on - year [4]. Manganese Ore - **Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations were stable on the whole. Some companies' prices increased slightly, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [37][38]. - **Output and Arrival**: - The global manganese ore departure volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high historical level. - The manganese ore arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Before the holiday, restocking might lead to a continued increase in port clearance [40][46].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250818
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-17 23:30
Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Core Viewpoint - Market trading is gradually returning to fundamentals, and the alloy market is oscillating. The alloy prices showed a weak and oscillating trend this week. Affected by the weakening sentiment of coking coal and coke, the alloy market is gradually returning to fundamentals. With potential continuous expansion of supply and weakening demand support, alloy prices may face pressure after the dissipation of the market sentiment [3][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - **Futures Price**: This week, the Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 contract oscillated, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 795,571 lots and an open interest of 60,480 lots, a decrease of 58,558 lots week-on-week. The main contract shifted to Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511, closing at 5,932 yuan/ton on Friday. The Manganese Silicon 2509 contract also oscillated, closing at 6,026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1,200,969 lots and an open interest of 153,180 lots, a decrease of 74,734 lots week-on-week [7]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of Silicon Ferrosilicon in major regions across the country were relatively stable this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B Silicon Ferrosilicon in major producing areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of Silicon Manganese in major regions across the country ranged from 5,800 to 6,100 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of -50 to 120 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Silicon Ferrosilicon was 112,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,800 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +3.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.18%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Gansu (46.7%) and Shaanxi (31.8%) [22][23]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [34]. - **Non - steel Demand**: The output of stainless - steel crude steel in July was 2.8241 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The planned output of stainless - steel crude steel in August is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in July was 68,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The export volume of Silicon Ferrosilicon in June was 34,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [34]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 60 Silicon Ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 65,180 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,590 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Silicon Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 week-on-week, equivalent to a stock of 104,580 tons, with an accumulation of 6,350 tons this week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Silicon Ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days (-1.13 days), with 13.22 days in the northern region (-0.57 days), 15 days in the eastern region (-1.71 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [43]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of Silicon Ferrosilicon expanded following the market. The weekly futures profit was 625 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4707.69%. The weekly spot profit was 143 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 53.76% and a year-on-year increase of 326.98% [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Manganese Silicon was 207,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,200 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +5.4%. The weekly operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Ningxia (61.7%) and Inner Mongolia (9.3%) [57][58]. - **Raw Materials**: - **Manganese Ore Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations for manganese ore increased. For example, South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (Mn36.9%) was 4.05 US dollars per ton - degree, an increase of 0.15 US dollars per ton - degree compared to the August offer. The port prices in Tianjin were relatively stable [64]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global outbound volume of manganese ore increased on a week-on-week basis, but the overall shipping speed slowed down. The recent inbound volume of manganese ore at ports increased on a week-on-week basis, and the demand at Tianjin Port is expected to break through previous highs [67][68]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 3,700 tons week-on-week, but still supported the overall demand for Manganese Silicon [74]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 63 Manganese Silicon sample enterprises in China was 158,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,700 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Manganese Silicon warehouse receipts was 74,797, a week-on-week decrease of 1,248, equivalent to a stock of 373,985 tons, with a reduction of 6,240 tons in warehouse receipts this week. There may be concentrated registration of warehouse receipts next week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Manganese Silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days (-1.25 days), with 13.37 days in the northern region (-0.56 days), 14.74 days in the eastern region (-2.12 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [82][83]. - **Profit**: The cost support for Manganese Silicon was relatively stable, but the profit narrowed following the price decline. The weekly futures profit was 213.72 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 8.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The weekly spot profit was - 12.28 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 155.01% [4].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告:硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250615
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-15 09:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply and demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy has expanded marginally recently, which may affect the futures market trends. Attention should be paid to the influence of macro - sentiment on commodity prices, and at the micro - level, continue to monitor the price changes of raw materials and the production rhythm of steel mills. Weather may affect the subsequent shipment and arrival of global manganese ore, so follow the subsequent shipment of manganese ore at South African ports this week [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - This week, the alloy was affected by macro - sentiment disturbances, and its price fluctuated along with the black metal sector. Ignoring macro - factors, prices may continue to decline due to the downward movement of raw material prices and weak demand expectations. Domestically, the macro - situation is relatively stable with no signs of new policies. The previous optimistic expectations from China - US trade talks were disrupted by the Middle East situation, affecting commodity market sentiment. At the micro - level, demand is peaking, the off - season is coming, and if supply continues to expand, alloy prices may face more pressure [6]. 3.2 Silicon Ferroalloy 3.2.1 Supply - Silicon ferroalloy production this week was 95,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,200 tons, with a change rate of - 2.3%. The weekly operating rate was 31.35%, a decrease of 1.43 percentage points from last week. Some regions like Ningxia and Gansu have resumed production, but the resumption in Inner Mongolia has slowed down due to environmental protection factors [15]. 3.2.2 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. In non - steel demand, the stainless - steel crude steel output in May was 3.017 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons from the previous month, and the planned output in June is expected to continue to contract. The total output of magnesium metal in May was 67,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in April was 38,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.8% [29]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 69,990 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,210 tons. The number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 15,228, a week - on - week decrease of 348, and the inventory was 76,140 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.2 days, showing a decreasing trend in different regions [39]. 3.2.4 Profit - The profit of silicon ferroalloy has rebounded slightly, the cost is relatively stable, but the expected cost may move down later [43]. 3.3 Manganese Ferroalloy 3.3.1 Supply - Manganese ferroalloy production this week was 173,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons, with a change rate of 0.9%. The weekly operating rate was 35.3%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from last week. The main production area in Ningxia continued to resume production, while some small furnaces in Inner Mongolia and Guangxi were shut down for maintenance [47]. 3.3.2 Raw Materials - Overseas manganese ore producers' quotes have continued to decline, and the port manganese ore prices are fluctuating. The global manganese ore departure volume has decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume has increased month - on - month, with high port demand [55][59][66]. 3.3.3 Demand - In terms of steel - making demand, the actual output of hot metal in downstream steel mills has decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises this week was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week, and the daily average hot metal output was 2,416,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 190,000 tons. The weekly output of rebar has decreased by 108,900 tons, weakening the demand support for manganese ferroalloy [72]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of June 13, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 195,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. The number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 97,951, a week - on - week decrease of 3,061, and the inventory was 489,755 tons, with a slower destocking rate. In May, the average available days of manganese ferroalloy inventory in steel mills were 15.15 days, showing different trends in different regions [76][79]. 3.3.5 Profit - The cost support for manganese ferroalloy has weakened, and price competition at the ore end is emerging [83].