硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年9月28日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：合金成本存在支撑，价格走势震荡 | | | 产节奏对合金的需求支撑力度，警惕需求不及市场预期而使得供需矛盾加剧，合金价格出现下移。 | 幅收缩，部分产区存有转产迹象，但成本端表现坚挺，新增投产计划使得空头情绪浓厚，短期维持成本以上空间运行。需持续跟踪钢厂的生 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基本面 | 条 目 | | 硅铁(宁夏） | | | 锰硅（内蒙古） | | | | | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | 当期值 | 环 比 | 同 比 | | | 周产量（周） | 11.45 | 1.24% | 4.85% | 20.64 | -1.12% | 17.44% | | 供 应 | 进口数量 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and the market resonate, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloys [3][5][6]. Summary by Directory Overall Situation of Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - This week, the continuous high demand and rising cost of alloys pushed the price center slightly higher. The HeSteel tender price exceeded market expectations. In the short - term, the resonance of fundamentals and sentiment drove the alloy prices to move in an oscillating and slightly upward manner [5]. - Domestically, in August, the M2 - M1 gap in China narrowed by 0.4 percentage points, reaching a four - year low, indicating an increase in capital activation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to adjust the weak employment market, which was in line with market expectations [5]. - After the military parade, steel mills resumed production, and the molten iron output recovered, supporting the demand for raw materials. The rising cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Ferrosilicon - **Supply**: This week's ferrosilicon output was 113,100 tons, with a weekly production rate of 34.84%, remaining unchanged from last week. Factories maintained high - load production, and there were still plans to start furnaces in the future [54][59]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week [66]. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, up 78,700 tons month - on - month and down 2.25% year - on - year. In September, the stainless - steel crude steel production plan increased by 4.4% month - on - month. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 69,500 tons, up 1.4% month - on - month and 5.58% year - on - year. In July, the ferrosilicon export volume was 35,900 tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [67][68]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 63,390 tons, down 6,550 tons week - on - week. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 17,628, up 1,163 week - on - week, equivalent to 88,140 tons of inventory, with a weekly increase of 5,815 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory were 14.67 days (+0.42 days) [74]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 1,126,280 lots, and the open interest was 211,764 lots, down 6,200 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions continued to rise. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in main production areas was 5,280 - 5,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 70 - 120 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 367.50 yuan/ton, up 33.39% week - on - week and 353.70% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 18.50 yuan/ton, up 77.58% week - on - week and 81.68% year - on - year [4]. Silicomanganese - **Supply**: - This week's silicomanganese output was 208,775 tons, down 5,355 tons from last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 2.6%. The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week [17]. - Supply in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased. Inner Mongolia had furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and some factories in Ningxia reduced production loads [5]. - **Demand**: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week. The silicomanganese demand was weakly stable [23]. - In July, the silicomanganese export volume was 2,400 tons, up 106.36% month - on - month and 79.90% year - on - year [4]. - **Inventory**: - As of September 19, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 60,676, down 764 week - on - week, equivalent to 303,380 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 3,820 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' silicomanganese inventory were 14.98 days (+0.74 days). - As of September 19, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - **Price and Profit**: - This week, the silicomanganese 2601 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 986,446 lots, and the open interest was 334,501 lots, up 8,931 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese in major regions was 5,580 - 6,020 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0 - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 218.34 yuan/ton, up 341.84% week - on - week and down 25.56% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 15.66 yuan/ton, up 88.19% week - on - week and 86.34% year - on - year [4]. Manganese Ore - **Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations were stable on the whole. Some companies' prices increased slightly, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [37][38]. - **Output and Arrival**: - The global manganese ore departure volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high historical level. - The manganese ore arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Before the holiday, restocking might lead to a continued increase in port clearance [40][46].

Report Information - Report Title: Silicon Ferrosilicon & Manganese Silicon Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 18, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Analysts: Li Yafei, Jin Yuanyuan [2] Core Viewpoint - Market trading is gradually returning to fundamentals, and the alloy market is oscillating. The alloy prices showed a weak and oscillating trend this week. Affected by the weakening sentiment of coking coal and coke, the alloy market is gradually returning to fundamentals. With potential continuous expansion of supply and weakening demand support, alloy prices may face pressure after the dissipation of the market sentiment [3][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Summary by Directory 1. Market Overview - **Futures Price**: This week, the Silicon Ferrosilicon 2509 contract oscillated, closing at 5,754 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 795,571 lots and an open interest of 60,480 lots, a decrease of 58,558 lots week-on-week. The main contract shifted to Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511, closing at 5,932 yuan/ton on Friday. The Manganese Silicon 2509 contract also oscillated, closing at 6,026 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week-on-week, with a trading volume of 1,200,969 lots and an open interest of 153,180 lots, a decrease of 74,734 lots week-on-week [7]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of Silicon Ferrosilicon in major regions across the country were relatively stable this week. The aggregated quotation of 75B Silicon Ferrosilicon in major producing areas was 5,400 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of Silicon Manganese in major regions across the country ranged from 5,800 to 6,100 yuan/ton, with price fluctuations of -50 to 120 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Silicon Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Silicon Ferrosilicon was 112,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,800 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +3.3%. The weekly operating rate was 36.18%, an increase of 1.86 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Gansu (46.7%) and Shaanxi (31.8%) [22][23]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons [34]. - **Non - steel Demand**: The output of stainless - steel crude steel in July was 2.8241 million tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 3.95%. The planned output of stainless - steel crude steel in August is expected to increase by 4.3% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in July was 68,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. The export volume of Silicon Ferrosilicon in June was 34,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [34]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 60 Silicon Ferrosilicon sample enterprises in China was 65,180 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 6,590 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Silicon Ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,916, an increase of 1,270 week-on-week, equivalent to a stock of 104,580 tons, with an accumulation of 6,350 tons this week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Silicon Ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days (-1.13 days), with 13.22 days in the northern region (-0.57 days), 15 days in the eastern region (-1.71 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [43]. - **Profit**: The spot and futures profits of Silicon Ferrosilicon expanded following the market. The weekly futures profit was 625 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 34.41% and a year-on-year increase of 4707.69%. The weekly spot profit was 143 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 53.76% and a year-on-year increase of 326.98% [4]. 3. Manganese Silicon Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the output of Manganese Silicon was 207,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,200 tons, with a week-on-week change rate of +5.4%. The weekly operating rate was 45.75%, an increase of 2.32 percentage points from last week. The production increase was mainly contributed by Ningxia (61.7%) and Inner Mongolia (9.3%) [57][58]. - **Raw Materials**: - **Manganese Ore Price**: Overseas mining companies' quotations for manganese ore increased. For example, South32's September 2025 offer for South African semi - carbonate lumps (Mn36.9%) was 4.05 US dollars per ton - degree, an increase of 0.15 US dollars per ton - degree compared to the August offer. The port prices in Tianjin were relatively stable [64]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global outbound volume of manganese ore increased on a week-on-week basis, but the overall shipping speed slowed down. The recent inbound volume of manganese ore at ports increased on a week-on-week basis, and the demand at Tianjin Port is expected to break through previous highs [67][68]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making Demand**: The actual output of hot metal from downstream steel mills was weakly stable on a week-on-week basis. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, their blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points from last week; the daily average hot metal output was 240,660 tons, a week-on-week increase of 3,400 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 3,700 tons week-on-week, but still supported the overall demand for Manganese Silicon [74]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: As of August 15, the inventory of 63 Manganese Silicon sample enterprises in China was 158,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2,700 tons. - **Warehouse Receipt Inventory**: As of August 15, the number of Manganese Silicon warehouse receipts was 74,797, a week-on-week decrease of 1,248, equivalent to a stock of 373,985 tons, with a reduction of 6,240 tons in warehouse receipts this week. There may be concentrated registration of warehouse receipts next week. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In July, the average available days of Manganese Silicon inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days (-1.25 days), with 13.37 days in the northern region (-0.56 days), 14.74 days in the eastern region (-2.12 days), and 15.78 days in the southern region (-1.22 days) [82][83]. - **Profit**: The cost support for Manganese Silicon was relatively stable, but the profit narrowed following the price decline. The weekly futures profit was 213.72 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 8.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.34%. The weekly spot profit was - 12.28 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.93% and a year-on-year decrease of 155.01% [4].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：宏观驱动与基本面博弈，合金走势震荡 ◼ 总体来看，双硅供需格局近期边际扩张，或影响盘面走势。注意宏观情绪对商品价格的影响，微观层面继续关注原料端的价格变化与钢厂生 产节奏的变动，天气或影响全球锰矿后续的发运及到港，关注本周南非港口锰矿的后续发运情况。 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | 硅 铁 | | | 锰 | 硅 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 比 同 | 当期值 | 环 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | 供 应 | 周产量（周） | 9 51 . | -2 . | 26% | -15 62% . | 17 34 ...