格隆汇1月8日｜高盛策略师在一份给客户的报告中阐述对于2026年美股的五大预测。 预测一：牛市延续，但节奏放缓。高盛策略师预测，标普500指数年底有望升至约7600点，意味着全年 涨幅约为12%。经济稳健成长、AI提升生产力，以及大型企业获利强劲，将为牛市持续提供基本面支 撑。 预测三：AI投资将持续加码。高盛预测，今年的资本支出有望大幅增加约36%，达到5390亿美元；2027 年资本支出可能再增加17%，达到6290亿美元。 预测四：AI行情进入新阶段。高盛策略师将这个新阶段称为"第三阶段"，其特征可能包括以下几点：资 本支出增速放缓；更多公司将导入AI；新一批AI受益企业将浮现。 预测五：并购活动保持活跃。今年的并购交易额有望较去年增长约15%。经济强劲成长、金融条件宽 松，以及企业领导者信心提升，都是支持并购活跃的因素。 预测二：周期性投资有望领先市场。政府重启后经济活动回温、《大而美法案》、更宽松的金融条件， 以及关税对经济低于预期的影响，都将推动经济增长，而这些因素都将支持周期性投资。 ...

Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical industry is experiencing structural differentiation in demand, with the refining sector benefiting from domestic economic recovery and increased demand for refined oil products [1] - The petrochemical product demand is closely linked to manufacturing sector performance, with significant potential for domestic substitution of high-end chemical materials [1] - Geopolitical disturbances are creating new opportunities in the trade segment, as energy supply chains are being restructured [1] - Current industry profitability is at a historically low level, but leading companies are expected to achieve profit recovery through scale effects and technological upgrades [1] - Traditional traders need to accelerate their transformation into comprehensive energy service providers to adapt to industry changes [1] Industry Overview - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services [1] - The oil and gas industry index focuses on the entire energy industry chain, effectively reflecting market trends and cyclical characteristics in the fossil fuel sector [1] - This index serves as a valuable tool for investors interested in energy security and cyclical investment opportunities [1]