国信证券指出，石油石化、炼化及贸易行业在需求端呈现结构性分化。炼化板块受益于国内经济复苏带 动成品油需求回暖，但需关注海外需求波动对出口的影响；石化产品需求与制造业景气度挂钩，高端化 工材料国产替代空间广阔。贸易环节受地缘政治扰动，能源供应链重构带来新机遇。当前行业盈利处于 历史中低位，龙头企业凭借规模效应和技术升级有望实现盈利修复，而传统贸易商需加快向综合能源服 务商转型以应对行业变革。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 关注石油ETF（561360）投资机会，有望实现盈利修复。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油和天然气勘探、 开采、加工及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映传统化石燃料领域相关上市公司证 券的整体表现。油气产业指数聚焦于能源行业全产业链，能够有效体现该领域的市场趋势与周期性特 征，为关注能源安全及周期性投资机会的投资者提供配置工具。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, geopolitical risks remain, particularly the tension in US-Venezuela relations and the fragility of the ceasefire [1] - Short-term oil prices may receive support due to increased winter heating demand and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] Group 2 - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of related companies [1] - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is identified as one of the ten key sectors for structural adjustment, with emphasis on improving supply and phasing out outdated capacity as mandated by the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - A joint assessment of old petrochemical facilities will be conducted by multiple ministries starting in late June 2025, focusing on equipment that has reached its design lifespan or has been in operation for over 20 years as of May 30, 2025 [1] - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1] Group 2 - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of oil and gas enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations and an upward trend by September 2025, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and various market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the closure of some refining facilities, contributing to a rise in oil prices to a high point within the month [1]. - Market expectations of OPEC+ increasing production and weak U.S. non-farm data have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a subsequent decline observed [1]. - Continued attacks by Ukraine on Russia may result in reduced oil production from Russian producers, while the EU might impose new sanctions on Russia [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates may also influence oil price movements, contributing to a rebound in prices mid-month [1]. Group 3: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services [1]. - The oil and gas industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the energy sector, characterized by strong resource endowments and synergistic industry chains [1].