春节后红包行情持续。我们统计2006—2025年历史数据进行复盘，发现： 节后红包行情的胜率比较突出：20次春节，节后1周胜率16/21（76%）、2周同为76%，1月胜率71%（15/21），显著 高于全年平均约52%。5次下跌均为外生系统性冲击，非节日效应本身失效。 节后红包行情的涨幅可观：1周均涨+1.6%、2周+2.5%、1月+4.6%；牛市年（2007/09/15/19）1月均涨超13%；2025年 节后AI科技行情推动大涨，1周+2.37%、1月+5.76%，节后效应再度验证。 | | | | | 历年春节后A股涨跌明细(中证全指) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | स्टेसि | 1周 | 2周 | 1月 | W | स्टेसि | 1周 | 2周 | 1月 | W | | 2025 | +2.37% | +4.08% | +5.76% | 1 | 2015 | +4.18% | +5.12% | +10.20 | A | | 2024 | +3.67% | +5.42% | ...

石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数聚焦于石油和天然气的勘探、开采、生 产及销售等业务环节，选取覆盖产业链上游至下游的相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气行业 整体表现，其构成具有较高的行业集中度和周期性特征。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 地缘升温推动油价上行，2月25日，石油ETF（561360）涨近3%，资金持续抢筹，近20日净流入超23亿 元，规模超30亿元。 平安证券指出，石油石化行业方面，伊朗地缘局势高度紧张，风险升温推动油价上行。短期内，受伊朗 地缘局势高度紧张及俄乌地缘风险尚存影响，油价或呈现震荡偏强走势。中长期来看，油价锚定基本 面，随着OPEC+增产的推进以及美洲国家油田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎，油价仍存在中 枢进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas sector has shown strong performance, with multiple oil ETFs leading the market on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, reflecting a significant increase in investor interest and market activity [1][4][10]. ETF Performance Summary - On February 24, a total of 919 ETFs rose, with the highest increase reaching 9.73%. The leading oil ETFs included: - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) increased by 9.73%, with a trading volume of 1.117 billion and a turnover rate of 152.76% [2][8]. - The S&P Oil & Gas ETF by Harvest Fund (159518) rose by 9.66%, with a trading volume of 1.546 billion and a turnover rate of 99.88% [2][8]. - Other notable increases included the Silverhua Oil & Gas ETF (563150) at 9.53% and the Bosera Oil & Gas ETF (561760) at 8.42% [6][7]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector's strong performance is attributed to geopolitical risks and a tight supply-demand situation, leading to a significant rise in related stock prices and indices [10]. - The market is currently driven by geopolitical factors rather than supply-demand dynamics, with expectations of high volatility in oil prices in the near term [10]. ETF Index Tracking - There are four main oil and gas indices tracked by ETFs in the domestic market: - CSI Oil and Gas Resource Index (931248) - CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index (H30198) - National Oil and Gas Index (399439) - S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production Select Industry Index (SPSIOP) [5][17]. - The ETFs tracking these indices have shown similar performance, with the same fee structure and relatively close year-to-date returns [19]. Investor Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious as the S&P Oil & Gas ETF has issued a premium risk warning, indicating that its market price is significantly higher than its indicative net asset value (IOPV), which could lead to potential losses if investments are made blindly [10].

第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。 当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复 了几成，而是"美军在波斯湾部署了几艘航母""伊朗铀浓缩进度""霍尔木兹海峡是否有军舰对峙"。这些 变量无法量化，但恰恰是边际资金定价的核心依据。 因此，短期策略不应是博弈地缘事件的节奏，而应是承认不确定性本身已成为油价的支撑要素。只要美 伊"边谈边斗"的格局不根本逆转，油价就难以深度回调。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要覆盖石油与天然气勘探、开采、炼 制及销售等环节的企业。成分股主要为能源行业内具有较高市值和行业代表性的大型企业，以反映油气 产业链的整体表现。该指数侧重于传统能源领域，是衡量能源市场走势的重要指标之一。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 2月24 ...

地缘风险持续升温，美伊第二轮间接谈判刚结束，美国即向中东增派第二支航母打击群，威胁加码。与此同时，俄军对基辅发动大规模导弹袭击。地缘冲突 升温直接推升油价避险溢价，国际油价再度突破70美元大关。石油板块持续吸金，聚焦全产业链工具石油ETF近20日净流入超21亿元。 事件聚焦：美伊博弈成油价核心变量 本周石油市场的事件驱动特征极为鲜明，核心焦点仍是美伊博弈的反复与升级。 据新华社消息，美国和伊朗第二轮间接谈判于2月17日在瑞士日内瓦举行。会后伊朗外长表示"双方仍需要进一步沟通"——这一表态本身即暗示分歧犹存。 更关键的是，谈判尚未降温，美国便从加勒比海向中东地区调遣第二支航母打击群，威胁同步加码。与此同时，俄军22日凌晨对基辅州展开大规模导弹与无 人机袭击，已造成人员伤亡。两大地缘热点同时升温，市场对供应中断的担忧迅速转化为风险溢价。 数据来源：Wind，数据区间：2026/1/1-2026/2/23 银河证券表示，地缘冲突对油价的影响取决于两大要素——一是冲突是否涉及全球主要产油国，二是是否对关键原油运输通道构成实质性威胁。伊朗恰恰兼 具产油国与霍尔木兹海峡控制者的双重战略身份，这使得任何围绕伊朗的局势动荡， ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across all major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.57% [1] Sector Performance - The shipbuilding, aerospace, and comprehensive industries showed the highest gains, while the photovoltaic equipment, minor metals, and glass fiber sectors collectively retreated [1] - The aerospace sector saw a counter-trend increase, with the Huatai-PB Aerospace ETF and the Huaxia Aerospace ETF rising by 2.3% and 1.58%, respectively [1] - The semiconductor sector also performed well, with the Huatai-PB Korea Semiconductor ETF and the Semiconductor Equipment ETF increasing by 1.8% and 1.25%, respectively [1] - In contrast, the oil and gas sector faced declines, with the Bosera Oil and Gas ETF and the Oil ETF dropping by 4.21% and 3.99% [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a broad downturn, with the Fuguo Non-ferrous ETF and the Huatai Oil and Gas ETF falling by 3.73% and 3.72%, respectively [1] International Market - Japanese stocks continued to rise, with the Huaxia Nikkei ETF increasing by 1.39% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions and inventory risks have reversed the market consensus on falling oil prices, with recent oil price movements being primarily driven by emotional trading [1][2] - Extreme winter weather in the U.S. has increased heating demand and disrupted oil production and refining, leading to a substantial contraction in physical oil supply, thus supporting international oil prices [1] - Recent supply disruptions, such as the interruption of operations at the Caspian pipeline and power outages at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, have also provided support for international oil prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have introduced volatility in oil prices, with initial diplomatic talks potentially seen as bearish, but subsequent news of possible breakdowns in talks led to a surge in oil prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Iran is expected to continue affecting international oil prices due to significant differences in their core demands [2] - The shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as approximately 20% to 30% of global oil maritime trade passes through this route, and any disruption could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3] Group 3 - The current geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, are the main focus, while other regional conflicts have temporarily subsided [4] - The U.S. has historically acted to suppress oil prices to alleviate inflation and weaken Russia's position in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but this influence is diminishing [4][5] - As the midterm elections approach, the U.S. may have less motivation to suppress oil prices, potentially leading to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4 - Recent analyses suggest that the oil market is experiencing a shift, with several institutions raising their oil price forecasts, indicating a potential upward trend in oil prices [5] - The first and second quarters typically see a strengthening trend in oil prices due to policy implementations and geopolitical events, although this calendar effect should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions [6] - The current upward trend in oil prices is supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential adjustments in OPEC policies, with expectations of a rebound in oil prices as high-cost production begins to exit the market [8]

Group 1 - The oil sector is experiencing an upward trend, with the oil ETF (561360) rising over 2% and a net capital inflow exceeding 2 billion yuan in the past 20 days [1] - Western Securities highlights that the trading PPI (large refining) is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the appreciation of the yuan, and the return of cross-border capital, which are improving the cash flow statements of the real economy [1] - The correlation between PPI trading and the export-oriented manufacturing sector is low, suggesting that stock prices and valuations could see systematic recovery before the People's Bank of China resumes quantitative easing and revitalizes the real estate market [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes companies involved in exploration, extraction, refining, and sales of oil and gas, primarily focusing on large enterprises in the energy sector [1] - The index emphasizes upstream resource development and midstream processing while also considering downstream product distribution [1] - The combination of supply contraction and the return of foreign capital is expected to drive input inflation, with PPI likely to recover ahead of CPI [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Oil ETF (561360), which opened with a gain of 0.84% at 1.442 yuan on February 9 [1] - The major holdings of the Oil ETF include China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and Sinopec, with varying performance: China National Petroleum down 0.74%, China National Offshore Oil down 0.29%, and Sinopec unchanged [1] - The Oil ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Oil and Gas Industry Index return, managed by Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 42.91% since its establishment on October 23, 2023, and a return of 13.78% over the past month [1] Group 2 - Notable stock performances within the ETF include Jerry Holdings up 2.76%, China Merchants Energy up 2.55%, and Henglian Petrochemical up 1.17% [1] - The article provides a detailed overview of the ETF's performance metrics, indicating a strong upward trend in the oil sector [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the oil ETF (561360) has risen over 1.3%, suggesting a potential stable increase in crude oil demand [1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, OPEC+ has delayed production increases, and shale oil production has peaked, leading to a slowdown in supply growth [1] - On the demand side, global macroeconomic improvements and tariff recovery are contributing to a stable increase in crude oil demand, with expectations for oil prices to remain in a relatively loose range, projected between $55 and $70 for Brent crude [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on the entire oil and gas value chain, including upstream exploration, midstream transportation, and downstream sales [1] - The constituent stocks primarily consist of representative companies in oil and gas extraction, refining, and energy services, reflecting the overall performance of publicly listed companies in the oil and gas industry [1] - In the PTA-polyester sector, international oil prices have fluctuated upwards, providing cost support; however, due to the upcoming Spring Festival, terminal enterprises are closing early, leading to a seasonal decline in polyester factory load and a weakening of PTA demand [1]