注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数主要涵盖从事石油和天然气勘探、开 发、生产、储存及运输等全产业链业务的上市公司证券，集中反映能源领域相关企业的整体表现。作为 典型的周期性指数，其成分股价格波动与国际原油市场高度联动，兼具行业配置的能源板块聚焦特征和 长期价值投资风格。 中邮证券指出，OPEC+在2026年一季度暂停增产，且沙特等主要产油国财政盈亏平衡油价维持高位， 显示维护价格或已重于市占率。美国页岩油方面，二叠纪区域新钻井数小于完井井数的趋势仍存，成本 压力或抑制产量进一步释放。炼化行业方面，油价触底后大炼化或迎困境反转。PX-PTA-聚酯产业链利 润或有修复，PTA集中投产周期已过，加工费处于低位；涤纶长丝库存下行叠加反内卷，近期价格及价 差有所 ...

国信证券指出，石油石化、炼化及贸易行业在需求端呈现结构性分化。炼化板块受益于国内经济复苏带 动成品油需求回暖，但需关注海外需求波动对出口的影响；石化产品需求与制造业景气度挂钩，高端化 工材料国产替代空间广阔。贸易环节受地缘政治扰动，能源供应链重构带来新机遇。当前行业盈利处于 历史中低位，龙头企业凭借规模效应和技术升级有望实现盈利修复，而传统贸易商需加快向综合能源服 务商转型以应对行业变革。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 关注石油ETF（561360）投资机会，有望实现盈利修复。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油和天然气勘探、 开采、加工及相关服务等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映传统化石燃料领域相关上市公司证 券的整体表现。油气产业指数聚焦于能源行业全产业链，能够有效体现该领域的市场趋势与周期性特 征，为关注能源安全及周期性投资机会的投资者提供配置工具。 ...

石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从全球或特定地区市场中选取涉及石油 和天然气勘探、开发、生产及服务等相关业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气行业相关上市 公司证券的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光大证券指出，在地缘政治仍存不确定的前提下，中长期原油供需格局仍具备景气基础，在长期主义视 角下，持续坚定看好"三桶油"及油服板块。此外，宏观经济恢复提振化工需求，长期来看化工品产能出 清利好龙头企业，看好大炼化、煤化工、乙烯盈利向好。 ...

石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘探、 开采、加工及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业链相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。成分股具有较高的行业集中度，配置侧重于能源行业，充分体现其周期性特征。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 行业整合及产能优化持续推进，石油ETF（561360）涨超1.5%。 华创证券指出，2025年前三季度炼化板块受益于成本管控和需求回暖，部分企业盈利环比改善。行业整 体受国际油价波动及下游需求影响，炼化企业开工率保持较高水平。贸易板块受大宗商品价格波动影 响，部分企业通过优化供应链和风险管理实现业绩增长。长期来看，行业整合及产能优化持续推进，具 备成本优势的头部企业盈利稳定性较强。 ...

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" market investment prosperity indicator, which aims to identify investment opportunities in industries that can become market investment main lines, based on the phenomenon of industry rotation in the A-share market [1][5] - The strategy combines three major dimensions: investment prosperity, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment prosperity indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to construct positive and negative screening factors, capturing the marginal upward beta factor and the super-expected report factor while preventing trading overheating [5][6] Strategy Performance - In October, the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment prosperity long portfolio achieved a return of 0.40%, while the analyst expectation indicator long portfolio returned 1.19%, closely matching the benchmark return of 1.06% [2][11] - The volume-price indicator performed exceptionally well, with a long portfolio return of 3.29%, resulting in an excess return of 2.23% [2][11] - The comprehensive "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio yielded a return of 2.56%, with an excess return of 1.50% [2][11] Latest Recommendations - Based on the latest data, the top recommended industries for November according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model include computer, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, commercial retail, banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, and home appliances as the leading industries [3][19] Industry Scores and ETF Recommendations - The report provides detailed scores for recommended industries, with non-bank financials scoring 1.00, commercial retail 0.97, and banking 0.93 under the "Expectation Resonance" composite indicator [19] - Corresponding ETFs for the recommended industries include various options for computer, petroleum, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, geopolitical risks remain, particularly the tension in US-Venezuela relations and the fragility of the ceasefire [1] - Short-term oil prices may receive support due to increased winter heating demand and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] Group 2 - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of related companies [1] - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is identified as one of the ten key sectors for structural adjustment, with emphasis on improving supply and phasing out outdated capacity as mandated by the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] - A joint assessment of old petrochemical facilities will be conducted by multiple ministries starting in late June 2025, focusing on equipment that has reached its design lifespan or has been in operation for over 20 years as of May 30, 2025 [1] - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of the sector [1] Group 2 - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of oil and gas enterprises [1]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are expected to experience fluctuations and an upward trend by September 2025, driven by geopolitical risk premiums and various market dynamics [1]. Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to the closure of some refining facilities, contributing to a rise in oil prices to a high point within the month [1]. - Market expectations of OPEC+ increasing production and weak U.S. non-farm data have led to fluctuations in oil prices, with a subsequent decline observed [1]. - Continued attacks by Ukraine on Russia may result in reduced oil production from Russian producers, while the EU might impose new sanctions on Russia [1]. Group 2: Market Predictions - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for oil supply growth this year, indicating a potential increase in market supply [1]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates may also influence oil price movements, contributing to a rebound in prices mid-month [1]. Group 3: Oil and Gas Industry Index - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes publicly traded companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services [1]. - The oil and gas industry index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the energy sector, characterized by strong resource endowments and synergistic industry chains [1].

Core Insights - The crude oil import volume from January to August 2025 reached 376 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, while the throughput of major crude oil receiving ports declined by 3.27%, indicating pressure on downstream demand [1] - The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) increased by 5.27% year-on-year, with TCE growth rates for routes like TD3C and TD25 exceeding 100%, suggesting a tight supply-demand situation in the oil shipping market [1] - The average import price of crude oil fell by 13.76% to $523.82 per ton, potentially alleviating cost pressures for refineries [1] - Iron ore imports decreased by 1.6%, with port inventories down by 8.04%, while throughput at major receiving ports increased by 2.57%, indicating resilience in dry bulk demand [1] - Coal inventories at northern ports dropped by 10.03%, but throughput at discharge ports saw a slight decline of 0.42%, reflecting overall stable supply and demand [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas extraction and services, aiming to reflect the overall performance of securities in the oil and gas sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the potential investment opportunities in the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector, particularly in the petrochemical industry, as capital expenditure is expected to stabilize after peaks in 2021 and 2023, with a projected capital expenditure of 248.5 billion yuan in 2024, close to the 242 billion yuan level in 2019 [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The local state-owned assets supervision and administration commission emphasizes the need for restructuring and optimizing the allocation of state-owned capital, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in the integration of central SOE assets [1] - The petrochemical central SOEs have increased their R&D investment, with the R&D expense ratio rising from 0.55% in 2019 to 0.77% in 2024 for central enterprises, and from 1.44% to 2.49% for local enterprises, indicating a commitment to developing new productive forces and addressing critical technologies [1] Group 2: Policy and Market Trends - The central government has been vocal about "anti-involution" since 2024, with a new "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan" for the petrochemical industry expected to be released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, aiming to adjust industry structure and promote supply-side optimization [1] - Supply-side reforms are anticipated to deepen in sub-industries such as refining, PTA/PX, fertilizers, pigments and dyes, organic silicon/industrial silicon, soda ash, and chlor-alkali/PVC, which could benefit relevant central SOEs [1]