每日经济新闻 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油与天然气勘探、 开采、炼制及销售等全产业链业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，涵盖上游资源开发、中游运输储存以 及下游产品分销等环节，以反映油气行业相关上市公司证券的整体表现和市场趋势。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 国信证券指出，国内炼化产能相对过剩，成品油海外出口成为重要方向，2025年前11个月我国成品油出 口量达5265万吨，其中煤油占比37%。煤油成为三大成品油中唯一具备较大增长潜力的油种，预计2040 年我国航煤消费量有望增长至7500万吨，增幅超100%。中国石化与中国航油重组将增强我国航空燃料 产业国际竞争力，通过炼化一体化与航油供应保障优势，减少中间环节降低成本，同时促进可持续航 ...

风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从全球市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘 探、开采、炼制及销售等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气产业相关上市公司证券的整体 表现。油气产业指数成分股具有明显的周期性特征，行业配置上侧重于能源板块，是衡量油气产业发展 状况和市场趋势的重要指标。 浙商证券指出，石油石化、炼化及贸易行业受益于国际原油价格中高位震荡，全球及我国油气资本开支 持续提升。国内增储上产战略持续推进，原油对外依存度高驱动行业需求；海外方面，美国油气开发或 加速，人民币贬值利好对美出口。行业格局呈现寡头垄断，国内以"三桶油"下属企业为主导，民营企业 通过高技术壁垒拓展海外细分市场。陆地非常规油气与海油开采成为新增 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 平安证券指出，近期地缘政治因素推动油价上升，如俄乌和平协议谈判遇阻、美委关系紧张及中东局势 升温等。同时，尽管美国汽油和馏分燃料油库存较高，但原油商业库存仍偏低。预计短期内油价将呈震 荡偏强态势。 石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数从市场中选取涉及石油、天然气勘探、 开采、加工及相关服务业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气行业相关上市公司证券的整体表 现。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the oil market will transition from a clear surplus to marginal tightening by 2026, while remaining in a loose environment overall [1] - On the supply side, OPEC+ is shifting to a moderate production increase model, and the growth of U.S. shale oil marginal production is weak [1] - On the demand side, global oil demand is entering a peak plateau period, with slow but resilient growth expected at approximately 800,000 to 1,000,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that the average oil price will fluctuate within the range of $55 to $65 per barrel in 2026 [1] - The downstream refining industry is experiencing accelerated optimization of its supply structure, with the government promoting the "anti-involution" initiative in the petrochemical sector since 2025, leading to the elimination of outdated capacity [1] - Domestic demand for refined oil is expected to peak, while chemical oil demand remains in a long-term growth channel, with a slow recovery in demand for petrochemical products becoming the main theme [1] Group 3 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in the entire oil and gas industry chain, including exploration, development, transportation, and refining [1] - This index exhibits significant cyclical characteristics, with its performance closely related to fluctuations in international oil prices [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is expected to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with major oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia maintaining high breakeven oil prices, indicating a focus on price maintenance over market share [1] - In the U.S. shale oil sector, the trend of new drilling in the Permian Basin being less than completed wells continues, suggesting cost pressures may inhibit further production release [1] - The refining industry may face a reversal of difficulties after oil prices hit bottom, with potential profit recovery in the PX-PTA-polyester industry chain as PTA's concentrated production cycle has passed and processing fees remain low [1] Group 2 - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which includes listed companies involved in the entire oil and gas value chain, reflecting the overall performance of energy-related enterprises [1] - As a typical cyclical index, the price fluctuations of its constituent stocks are highly correlated with the international crude oil market, combining features of industry allocation in the energy sector and a long-term value investment style [1]

Core Insights - The oil and petrochemical industry is experiencing structural differentiation in demand, with the refining sector benefiting from domestic economic recovery and increased demand for refined oil products [1] - The petrochemical product demand is closely linked to manufacturing sector performance, with significant potential for domestic substitution of high-end chemical materials [1] - Geopolitical disturbances are creating new opportunities in the trade segment, as energy supply chains are being restructured [1] - Current industry profitability is at a historically low level, but leading companies are expected to achieve profit recovery through scale effects and technological upgrades [1] - Traditional traders need to accelerate their transformation into comprehensive energy service providers to adapt to industry changes [1] Industry Overview - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services [1] - The oil and gas industry index focuses on the entire energy industry chain, effectively reflecting market trends and cyclical characteristics in the fossil fuel sector [1] - This index serves as a valuable tool for investors interested in energy security and cyclical investment opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for the oil supply and demand structure remains optimistic despite geopolitical uncertainties, with a continued positive stance on "three major oil companies" and the oil service sector from a long-term perspective [1] Group 1: Oil and Gas Sector - The macroeconomic recovery is expected to boost chemical demand, benefiting leading enterprises in the long run due to capacity elimination in chemical products [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, development, production, and services to reflect the overall performance of the oil and gas industry [1] Group 2: Chemical Industry - The long-term profitability outlook for large refining, coal chemical, and ethylene sectors is positive due to the recovery in macroeconomic conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The oil refining sector is expected to benefit from cost control and demand recovery in the first three quarters of 2025, leading to improved profitability for some companies [1] Industry Summary - The overall industry is influenced by fluctuations in international oil prices and downstream demand, maintaining a high operating rate for refining companies [1] - The trading sector is impacted by commodity price volatility, with some companies achieving performance growth through supply chain optimization and risk management [1] - Long-term trends indicate ongoing industry consolidation and capacity optimization, with leading companies possessing cost advantages showing strong profitability stability [1] ETF Overview - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed companies involved in oil and gas exploration, extraction, processing, and related services [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the oil and gas industry, characterized by high industry concentration and a focus on the energy sector, highlighting its cyclical nature [1]

Strategy Logic - The report introduces the "Shouzheng Chuq" market investment prosperity indicator, which aims to identify investment opportunities in industries that can become market investment main lines, based on the phenomenon of industry rotation in the A-share market [1][5] - The strategy combines three major dimensions: investment prosperity, volume-price indicators, and analyst expectations, resulting in 12 detailed industry rotation indicators [1][5] - The investment prosperity indicator utilizes market data and alternative data to construct positive and negative screening factors, capturing the marginal upward beta factor and the super-expected report factor while preventing trading overheating [5][6] Strategy Performance - In October, the "Shouzheng Chuq" investment prosperity long portfolio achieved a return of 0.40%, while the analyst expectation indicator long portfolio returned 1.19%, closely matching the benchmark return of 1.06% [2][11] - The volume-price indicator performed exceptionally well, with a long portfolio return of 3.29%, resulting in an excess return of 2.23% [2][11] - The comprehensive "Expectation Resonance" model long portfolio yielded a return of 2.56%, with an excess return of 1.50% [2][11] Latest Recommendations - Based on the latest data, the top recommended industries for November according to the "Shouzheng Chuq" model include computer, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "Expectation Resonance" model ranks non-bank financials, commercial retail, banking, petroleum and petrochemicals, light industry manufacturing, and home appliances as the leading industries [3][19] Industry Scores and ETF Recommendations - The report provides detailed scores for recommended industries, with non-bank financials scoring 1.00, commercial retail 0.97, and banking 0.93 under the "Expectation Resonance" composite indicator [19] - Corresponding ETFs for the recommended industries include various options for computer, petroleum, light industry manufacturing, non-bank financials, commercial retail, and pharmaceuticals [20]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite the signing of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, geopolitical risks remain, particularly the tension in US-Venezuela relations and the fragility of the ceasefire [1] - Short-term oil prices may receive support due to increased winter heating demand and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [1] Group 2 - The Oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which selects listed company securities involved in oil and gas extraction and services to reflect the overall performance of related companies [1] - The oil and gas industry index primarily covers the energy sector, with constituent stocks characterized by significant resource endowments and strong industry chain synergy, effectively representing the market performance of the oil and gas industry chain [1]