Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Analyze the current macro - core contradictions and the price fluctuations of each metal based on fundamental changes when studying the Spring Festival market of non - ferrous metals [2][3] - Most non - ferrous metal varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023 [12] - In 2026, if there are no sudden events during the Spring Festival holiday, the prices of non - ferrous metals will likely maintain the pre - festival fluctuation logic, and high volatility is expected after the holiday [20][21] - Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers can sell put options or buy up - and - out accumulator options according to their inventory and procurement needs [1][21] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Spring Festival Price Fluctuation Logic of Non - ferrous Metals - The price fluctuations of non - ferrous metals during the Spring Festival are mainly due to three types of contradictions: the split between macro and micro, different fundamentals of each variety, and the game between Chinese demand and overseas supply [2] - When analyzing the Spring Festival market, first qualitatively analyze whether the current macro - core contradiction is a unilateral trend or two - way contradiction, and then quantitatively analyze the price changes and fluctuations of each variety based on fundamental changes [3] 2. Fluctuation Situations of Annual Spring Festival Price Changes - **Historical Market Review**: Different metals had different performances and driving factors around the Spring Festival in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023. For example, copper had a bull - market start in 2016, and zinc led the rise of basic metals in 2016 due to a shortage of concentrates [10][11] - **Volatility Characteristics**: Most varieties have higher post - festival volatility than pre - festival volatility, and the years with amplified fluctuations are mainly 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2023. For example, the average volatility of SHFE copper after the Spring Festival is higher than that before the Spring Festival [12] - **Price Change and Opening Situation**: The price changes and opening situations of different metals around the Spring Festival vary. For example, in 2016, SHFE copper opened with a gap down of more than 2% after the Spring Festival, following the sharp decline of LME copper. The average jump ratio, opening - higher probability, average post - festival first - day change, and LME following probability of zinc, aluminum, tin, and nickel are also calculated [18] 3. 2026 Non - ferrous Metals Sector Festival Strategy - **Market Environment**: The Spring Festival in 2026 is late, and the market may digest macro - economic indicators before the festival. The prices are likely to maintain the pre - festival logic if there are no sudden events during the holiday, and the game between short - term weak supply - demand and long - term strong expectations should be noted after the holiday [20] - **Volatility and Trend Degree**: As of February 9, the volatility of non - ferrous metals has significantly declined. The trend strengths of copper, aluminum, and tin exceed 50%, while those of zinc and nickel are below 50%, indicating that the upward trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are still good, and zinc and nickel tend to fluctuate [21] - **Option Strategies**: Copper, aluminum, and tin can buy out - of - the - money 1 - 2 strike call options. Industrial customers with large pre - festival inventories can sell put options, and those worried about price increases during post - festival restocking can buy up - and - out accumulator options [1][21] - **Case of Selling Put Options**: Taking a copper inventory as an example, selling an out - of - the - money put option can obtain a premium to compensate for the cost of raw materials in case of price decline after the festival [22] - **Introduction to Buying Up - and - Out Accumulator Options**: This option strategy is suitable for scenarios such as daily low - price spot procurement, willingness to purchase more when the price drops, monthly average price settlement, and mild upward or fluctuating market conditions [25]