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甘源食品(002991):1H25主动调整蓄势 关注新品铺市进展
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q2 2025, attributed to increased expenses and adjustments in distribution channels [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue was 441 million yuan, down 3.37% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, down 70.96% year-on-year [1]. - The company maintained a cash dividend of 53.13 million yuan in the first half of 2025, with a dividend payout ratio of 71.2% [1]. - Gross margin decreased by 1.6 percentage points in Q2 2025 due to rising raw material prices and lower capacity utilization [2]. - Sales expense ratio increased by 6.4 percentage points in Q2 2025 as the company invested more in brand promotion and new brand ambassadors [2]. Sales Channels and Product Categories - In the first half of 2025, revenue from traditional distribution channels accounted for 75%, down 19.8% year-on-year, due to the elimination of low-performing distributors [1]. - E-commerce channel revenue increased by 12.4% year-on-year, accounting for 16% of total revenue, driven by new product launches and increased investment in e-commerce [1]. - Direct sales and other models saw a significant increase of 154.6% year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced cooperation with key account chains [1]. Product Performance - Revenue from core products declined by 2.9% year-on-year, while revenue from mixed nuts and beans dropped by 19.9%, and other series fell by 11.5% due to the removal of low-margin products [1]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment in 2025, focusing on optimizing traditional channels and enhancing brand promotion [3]. - The new sales director has initiated changes to improve terminal service capabilities and is expected to complete channel and product adjustments by the second half of 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the ongoing adjustments and increased expenses, net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced by 36.3% and 27.8%, respectively, to 254 million yuan and 327 million yuan [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.2 times for 2025 and 16.5 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment of 18.5% down to 75 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price [4].