Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - Short-term performance is under pressure, but profit growth is expected to recover due to channel adjustments, retail improvements, and franchise gross margin recovery. Long-term, structural adjustments are anticipated to enhance operational quality and profit elasticity, shifting from retail-driven profit elasticity to a more sustainable and robust internal focus [2][11]. - The company reported revenues of 4.22 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.2% and a 73.8% drop in net profit [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.32 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year revenue decline of 5.5% and a reduction in losses of 14 million yuan [5][11]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite a challenging retail environment and ongoing franchise store closures [11]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 170 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 230 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 41, 33, and 30 [2][11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor industry is under significant pressure, with only two out of twenty listed liquor companies, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, reporting slight increases in their third-quarter results, while the remaining eighteen experienced varying degrees of decline [2][3] Industry Performance - The liquor market is facing a complex situation influenced by multiple factors, including a shift towards rational and quality consumption, which has replaced traditional government consumption with more discerning business and general consumer choices [2][3] - The "Matthew Effect" within the industry is intensifying, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye demonstrating stronger resilience against market fluctuations, thereby increasing competitive pressure on regional liquor companies [3][4] - Regional liquor companies are collectively experiencing a "loss of momentum," with significant declines in revenue and net profit reported across several firms, indicating that previous rapid growth models are no longer sustainable [4][5] Dealer Network Adjustments - Many regional liquor companies have significantly reduced the number of their out-of-province distributors in the first three quarters, with notable decreases reported by companies such as Jiu Shi Yuan and Kuo Zi Jiao [5][6] - This reduction in distributors can be interpreted as a necessary "slimming down" in response to obstacles in national expansion, as many regional companies had previously pursued aggressive growth strategies that are now proving ineffective [6][7] - The strategic shift from pursuing broad coverage to focusing on depth in key markets is emerging, as companies recognize that national expansion requires long-term brand cultivation and refined market services rather than merely increasing distributor numbers [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.555 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4% in organic terms, and normalized EBITDA of $438 million, down 6.9% year-on-year, while normalized net profit attributable to the parent was $204 million, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.2512 million kiloliters, reflecting an organic year-on-year decline of 8.6% [4]. - Revenue per hectoliter in Q3 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.4%, showing a slight increase year-on-year [4]. - Normalized EBITDA margin improved to 28.2%, with an organic year-on-year increase of 0.46 percentage points, primarily benefiting from favorable commodity prices and cost management measures [4]. Group 2: Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA saw organic year-on-year declines of 12.0% and 11.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 9.9% and revenue per hectoliter down 2.4% year-on-year. Notably, the Indian market showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth [4]. - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA experienced organic year-on-year growth of 3.9% and 8.7%, respectively, with sales volume down 0.6% and revenue per hectoliter up 4.5% year-on-year. South Korea's performance was stable, with significant growth in non-alcoholic beer and RTD categories [4]. Group 3: China Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA in China saw organic year-on-year declines of 15.1% and 17.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 11.4%, primarily due to business layout, weak on-the-go channels, and inventory management impacts [5]. - Revenue per hectoliter in China decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, attributed to increased investments in innovative products and brand promotion, as well as adverse brand mix effects during inventory management [5]. - The company has been optimizing channel inventory, with significant reductions in inventory levels and turnover days, outperforming industry averages. Future strategies will focus on enhancing non-on-the-go channels and investing in premium brands like Budweiser and Corona [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 was 3.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, down 34.07% year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue for Q3 2025 alone was 1.025 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.84%, with a net profit of 123 million yuan, down 45.66% year-on-year [2][5]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to channel adjustments and the company's focus on optimizing distributor inventory, which has impacted sales negatively [6][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by product for Q1 to Q3 2025: Soy sauce 1.896 billion yuan (down 17.5% year-on-year), chicken essence and powder 393 million yuan (down 22.76%), edible oil 198 million yuan (down 42.67%), and others 465 million yuan (down 4.9%) [6]. - Revenue by region: Eastern region 649 million yuan (down 28.21%), Southern region 1.227 billion yuan (down 17.48%), Central and Western region 643 million yuan (down 14.68%), and Northern region 433 million yuan (down 12.78%) [6]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin for Q1 to Q3 2025 decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 12.04%, while the gross margin increased by 1.84 percentage points to 39.21%. The expense ratio rose by 6.33 percentage points to 25.72% [7]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin fell by 5.05 percentage points to 12.01%, with a gross margin of 39.53% (up 0.71 percentage points) and an expense ratio of 26.9% (up 10.75 percentage points) [7]. Future Outlook - The company is undergoing a painful period of channel adjustments, with short-term revenue pressure. However, with the new board of directors in place since July 2025, governance is being adjusted, and a turnaround is anticipated [8]. - As inventory is gradually digested and the pricing system is streamlined, along with ongoing efforts in the catering channel, compound seasonings, and overseas markets, growth momentum is expected to gradually release in the medium to long term [8]. - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 0.70 yuan and 0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 26 and 20 times [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting the challenges faced in the liquor industry and the company's proactive measures to adjust to market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 60.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a substantial decline of 52.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 74.93%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 35.3%, down 1.41 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The company’s expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.84%, a slight decrease of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance showing varied changes [2]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio increased to 14.15%, with notable increases in sales and management expense ratios [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its strategies in response to industry pressures, including reducing inventory and controlling channel supply to navigate through the current market challenges [1][3]. - The introduction of new products, such as the 29-degree Wuliangye, aims to diversify the product lineup and create new growth opportunities [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-year cash dividend plan, proposing a total distribution of 10 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. Future Outlook - Projections for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 78.137 billion yuan, 83.540 billion yuan, and 92.087 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 27.022 billion yuan, 28.118 billion yuan, and 30.352 billion yuan respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19]. Core Views - The company continues to experience revenue and net profit adjustments, with a total revenue of 3.702 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The decline in revenue is influenced by policy changes, but low-priced products and e-commerce channels are performing well, with e-commerce sales increasing by 71.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][4]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming years as market conditions improve, with projected revenues of 4.619 billion yuan in 2025, down 13.8% year-on-year, but increasing by 10.3% and 12.0% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.1%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin decline of 3.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 312 million yuan, a decrease of 188 million yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.74 yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [5][11].

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 588 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.37%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million, a decrease of 26.31% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 37.15%, up 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company expects to see gradual improvements in operational effectiveness due to completed channel adjustments and new product launches [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 operating revenue was 588 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million, down 26.31% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 76 million, also down 26.47% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 37.15%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.35 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 13.88%, a decrease of 5.78 percentage points year-on-year, but an increase of 8.92% quarter-on-quarter [2] Expense Management - The total expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 21.88%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales expense ratio was 17.33%, up 5.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to optimized spending on platforms like Douyin [2] - Management expense ratio was 3.71%, slightly down by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, while R&D expense ratio was 1.19%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.174 billion, 2.471 billion, and 2.814 billion, with expected year-on-year changes of -3.70%, +13.67%, and +13.86% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 239 million, 318 million, and 374 million, with year-on-year changes of -36.55%, +33.13%, and +17.70% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with projected P/E ratios of 21.2, 16.0, and 13.6 for 2025-2027 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating operational challenges and a need for strategic adjustments [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.156 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%, and a net profit of 380 million, down 34.07% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.025 billion, a decline of 22.8%, with a net profit of 123 million, down 45.7% [1]. - The adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 513 million, 638 million, and 724 million, reflecting year-on-year changes of -42.6%, 24.5%, and 13.5% respectively [1]. Business Segment Analysis - The seasoning business reported revenue of 3.107 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 18.4%, with a net profit of 367 million, down 34.13% [2]. - In Q3 2025, the seasoning business generated revenue of 1.009 billion, a decline of 19.37%, and a net profit of 120 million, down 41.93% [2]. - Revenue breakdown for Q3 includes soy sauce at 599 million, chicken essence at 137 million, cooking oil at 89 million, and others at 134 million, with respective year-on-year declines [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 39.7%, an increase of 2.26 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw material costs [3]. - The selling and administrative expense ratios were approximately 14% and 7.69%, respectively, both showing increases compared to the previous year [3]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 11.81%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased sales expenses from channel adjustments and intensified competition [3]. Market Position and Valuation - The company's current market valuation corresponds to a PE ratio of 28x, 22x, and 20x for 2025-2027, which is slightly below the average PE of 29.2x for comparable companies [1]. - The investment rating has been adjusted to "Accumulate" due to the anticipated recovery in channel performance and strategic adjustments [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 18.39 yuan [6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.16 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 20.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 380 million yuan, down 34.1% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focusing on optimizing distributor inventory and strengthening its market foundation, although revenue is under short-term pressure [2]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 39.2%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower procurement prices for raw materials [3]. - The company is undergoing channel adjustments and expects improvements in the future, with a focus on proactive strategies to enhance marketing and channel management [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.03 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 120 million yuan, down 45.7% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue breakdown for Q3 2025 by product shows soy sauce at 600 million yuan, chicken essence and powder at 140 million yuan, cooking oil at 90 million yuan, and other products at 130 million yuan, with respective year-on-year declines of 19.2%, 24.2%, 31.6%, and 8.8% [2]. - The company’s distributor count reached 2,898 by the end of Q3 2025, with a net increase of 99 distributors from Q2 [2]. Cost and Profitability - The company’s operating expenses increased, with a sales expense ratio of 13.8%, up 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, due to enhanced marketing efforts [3]. - The net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 12.0%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 4.55 billion yuan, 4.91 billion yuan, and 5.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of -17.6%, +8.0%, and +6.1% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 570 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 740 million yuan for the same years, with year-on-year changes of -36.6%, +15.0%, and +12.9% [4].

Core Viewpoint - LG Household & Health Care is implementing a voluntary retirement plan for its beauty department's sales and promotional staff in response to the gradual reduction of its offline store operations, including duty-free shops and department stores [1][2][3] Group 1: Voluntary Retirement Plan - The voluntary retirement plan is open to employees aged 35 and above, including both current and vacationing staff, with applications accepted until the end of October [2][3] - Employees opting for retirement will receive 20 months of basic salary and additional support funds, including educational support for school-aged children [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - LG Household & Health Care has experienced a decline in key financial metrics since 2022, with sales, operating profit, and net profit all showing year-on-year decreases [4][6] - The beauty department has seen a continuous decline in sales since 2020, with a significant drop from 222.52 billion KRW in 2020 to 140.98 billion KRW in 2024, despite a slight recovery in 2024 [7][8] Group 3: Market Strategy and Adjustments - The company is shifting its focus from traditional offline sales channels to online platforms, as evidenced by the closure of multiple counters in China and a strategic pivot towards e-commerce [13][14] - LG Household & Health Care is undergoing organizational changes, including the appointment of a new CEO from L'Oréal, aiming to revitalize its beauty business [15] Group 4: Industry Context - The trend of reducing offline presence is not unique to LG Household & Health Care, as many international beauty brands have also shifted their strategies towards online sales in response to changing consumer behaviors and the impact of the pandemic [14]