五粮液公司日报 以下文章来源于36氪企业舆情报告 ，作者36氪 36氪企业舆情报告 . 舆情大数据，帮你看清市场全貌、看懂涨跌原因。 来源｜ 36氪企业全情报（ID：EV36kr） 五粮液1月8日放 量下跌0.58% 106.90 -0.62 -0.58% 昨日收盘价107.52；当日收盘价：106.90 当日开盘价107.38；交易量12.91万手 换手率0.33%；放量幅度0.05% 3日涨幅 -0.93% ；5日涨幅 -0.43% 成交额：13.79亿；总市值：4149.44亿 较过去一年的平均收盘价 -0.14% ；较过去一年的日均交易量 -0.99% " 2025年白酒低迷五粮液承压 净利大跌 "舆情分析 ｜事件正负面性质分析 截止1月8日，此事件匹配的到全网舆情信息总量为 428条 ，正面信息 93条 ，占比 21.7% ，负面信息 134条 ，占比 31.3% ，中性信息 201条 ，占 比 47.0% ， 事件舆论呈现出较为负面的倾向 。 ｜渠道传播分析 该事件全网传播篇次为 428 条 ，事件主要传播渠道为微信平台，传播篇次 46条 ，占比 10.75% 。 ｜事件影响分析 估值修复行情 （ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Diya Co., is a leading brand in China's diamond ring industry, actively expanding its gold product line and optimizing channel layout amid overall pressure in the diamond market. The results are gradually showing positive effects [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 103 million yuan, a significant increase of 408.0%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 5.12 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - The comprehensive gross margin for the company was 66.4%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year. The core business gross margin, excluding the impact of raw material disposal, was 68.0%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points, benefiting from an optimized product sales structure [2]. Channel Optimization - The company continued to optimize its channel layout, closing 32 stores during the period (opening 16 and closing 48), with a slowdown in the rate of store closures compared to the same period last year, which saw 127 closures. As of Q3 2025, the company operated 341 stores, with significant improvements in store efficiency and a 31% year-on-year increase in single-store revenue [3]. Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company focuses on two emotional expression scenarios: "proposal" centered around diamond rings and "wedding" emphasizing traditional gold products. New product launches include the "One Life One World" gold ring series and the "DR Golden Crown" wedding series [4]. - The company is actively expanding into overseas markets, establishing an independent site in the U.S. and achieving significant results on TikTok. By the first half of 2025, the DR brand had a total exposure of 689 million times in overseas markets, with 38.74 million natural searches and over 960,000 followers on overseas social platforms [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the ongoing channel adjustment phase, the company has lowered its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 52% and 44% to 136 million yuan and 203 million yuan, respectively. A net profit forecast of 251 million yuan for 2027 has been introduced. The estimated net asset per share for 2025-2027 is projected to be 16.14, 16.64, and 17.27 yuan, respectively [5]. - Given the company's current brand transformation phase and significant cash reserves, a PB valuation method is adopted. The target price for 2026 is set at 28.3 yuan, based on a PB of 1.7 times, maintaining a "hold" rating [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Hold" with a target price of RMB 28.30 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Diya Co., is a leading brand in China's diamond ring industry, actively expanding its gold product line and optimizing its channel layout, showing gradual improvement in performance [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 1.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 103 million, a significant increase of 408.0% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company continues to optimize inefficient stores and has introduced new products, which have driven a rapid increase in same-store sales [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Online self-operated revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached RMB 230 million, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, while offline direct sales revenue was RMB 820 million, a decrease of 5.0% due to net store closures [2]. - The overall gross margin for the company in the first three quarters was 66.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, with core business gross margin at 68.0%, up 2.3 percentage points [2]. Store Optimization and Efficiency - The company closed 32 stores during the first three quarters of 2025, with a net store closure rate slowing down compared to the previous year [3]. - The average revenue per store increased to RMB 2.65 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, while sales and management expense ratios improved significantly [3]. Product Innovation and Market Expansion - The company focuses on two emotional expression scenarios: "Proposal" and "Wedding," with new product launches in the gold jewelry category [4]. - Diya Co. is actively expanding into overseas markets, achieving significant exposure on platforms like TikTok, with a total exposure of 689 million times by the first half of 2025 [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards by 52% and 44% to RMB 136 million and RMB 203 million, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at RMB 251 million [5][12]. - The company is currently in a brand transformation phase, leading to significant earnings volatility, and a price-to-book (PB) valuation method is now applied, with a target price set at RMB 28.30 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - Short-term performance is under pressure, but profit growth is expected to recover due to channel adjustments, retail improvements, and franchise gross margin recovery. Long-term, structural adjustments are anticipated to enhance operational quality and profit elasticity, shifting from retail-driven profit elasticity to a more sustainable and robust internal focus [2][11]. - The company reported revenues of 4.22 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.2% and a 73.8% drop in net profit [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenues of 1.32 billion yuan, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 50 million yuan, marking a year-on-year revenue decline of 5.5% and a reduction in losses of 14 million yuan [5][11]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year in Q3 2025, despite a challenging retail environment and ongoing franchise store closures [11]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 170 million yuan, 210 million yuan, and 230 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 41, 33, and 30 [2][11].

Core Insights - The overall performance of the liquor industry is under significant pressure, with only two out of twenty listed liquor companies, Kweichow Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, reporting slight increases in their third-quarter results, while the remaining eighteen experienced varying degrees of decline [2][3] Industry Performance - The liquor market is facing a complex situation influenced by multiple factors, including a shift towards rational and quality consumption, which has replaced traditional government consumption with more discerning business and general consumer choices [2][3] - The "Matthew Effect" within the industry is intensifying, with high-end brands like Moutai and Wuliangye demonstrating stronger resilience against market fluctuations, thereby increasing competitive pressure on regional liquor companies [3][4] - Regional liquor companies are collectively experiencing a "loss of momentum," with significant declines in revenue and net profit reported across several firms, indicating that previous rapid growth models are no longer sustainable [4][5] Dealer Network Adjustments - Many regional liquor companies have significantly reduced the number of their out-of-province distributors in the first three quarters, with notable decreases reported by companies such as Jiu Shi Yuan and Kuo Zi Jiao [5][6] - This reduction in distributors can be interpreted as a necessary "slimming down" in response to obstacles in national expansion, as many regional companies had previously pursued aggressive growth strategies that are now proving ineffective [6][7] - The strategic shift from pursuing broad coverage to focusing on depth in key markets is emerging, as companies recognize that national expansion requires long-term brand cultivation and refined market services rather than merely increasing distributor numbers [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Budweiser APAC reported Q3 2025 revenue of $1.555 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 8.4% in organic terms, and normalized EBITDA of $438 million, down 6.9% year-on-year, while normalized net profit attributable to the parent was $204 million, a decrease of 9.3% year-on-year [3]. Group 1: Performance Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.2512 million kiloliters, reflecting an organic year-on-year decline of 8.6% [4]. - Revenue per hectoliter in Q3 2025 increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 51.4%, showing a slight increase year-on-year [4]. - Normalized EBITDA margin improved to 28.2%, with an organic year-on-year increase of 0.46 percentage points, primarily benefiting from favorable commodity prices and cost management measures [4]. Group 2: Regional Performance - In the Western Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA saw organic year-on-year declines of 12.0% and 11.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 9.9% and revenue per hectoliter down 2.4% year-on-year. Notably, the Indian market showed strong performance with double-digit revenue growth [4]. - In the Eastern Asia-Pacific region, Q3 2025 revenue and normalized EBITDA experienced organic year-on-year growth of 3.9% and 8.7%, respectively, with sales volume down 0.6% and revenue per hectoliter up 4.5% year-on-year. South Korea's performance was stable, with significant growth in non-alcoholic beer and RTD categories [4]. Group 3: China Market Dynamics - In Q3 2025, revenue and normalized EBITDA in China saw organic year-on-year declines of 15.1% and 17.9%, respectively, with sales volume down 11.4%, primarily due to business layout, weak on-the-go channels, and inventory management impacts [5]. - Revenue per hectoliter in China decreased by 4.0% year-on-year, attributed to increased investments in innovative products and brand promotion, as well as adverse brand mix effects during inventory management [5]. - The company has been optimizing channel inventory, with significant reductions in inventory levels and turnover days, outperforming industry averages. Future strategies will focus on enhancing non-on-the-go channels and investing in premium brands like Budweiser and Corona [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Views - The company's total revenue for Q1 to Q3 of 2025 was 3.156 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.01%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan, down 34.07% year-on-year [2][5]. - The revenue for Q3 2025 alone was 1.025 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 22.84%, with a net profit of 123 million yuan, down 45.66% year-on-year [2][5]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to channel adjustments and the company's focus on optimizing distributor inventory, which has impacted sales negatively [6][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue Breakdown - Revenue by product for Q1 to Q3 2025: Soy sauce 1.896 billion yuan (down 17.5% year-on-year), chicken essence and powder 393 million yuan (down 22.76%), edible oil 198 million yuan (down 42.67%), and others 465 million yuan (down 4.9%) [6]. - Revenue by region: Eastern region 649 million yuan (down 28.21%), Southern region 1.227 billion yuan (down 17.48%), Central and Western region 643 million yuan (down 14.68%), and Northern region 433 million yuan (down 12.78%) [6]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit margin for Q1 to Q3 2025 decreased by 2.57 percentage points to 12.04%, while the gross margin increased by 1.84 percentage points to 39.21%. The expense ratio rose by 6.33 percentage points to 25.72% [7]. - For Q3 2025, the net profit margin fell by 5.05 percentage points to 12.01%, with a gross margin of 39.53% (up 0.71 percentage points) and an expense ratio of 26.9% (up 10.75 percentage points) [7]. Future Outlook - The company is undergoing a painful period of channel adjustments, with short-term revenue pressure. However, with the new board of directors in place since July 2025, governance is being adjusted, and a turnaround is anticipated [8]. - As inventory is gradually digested and the pricing system is streamlined, along with ongoing efforts in the catering channel, compound seasonings, and overseas markets, growth momentum is expected to gradually release in the medium to long term [8]. - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 are approximately 0.70 yuan and 0.91 yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 26 and 20 times [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting the challenges faced in the liquor industry and the company's proactive measures to adjust to market conditions [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 60.945 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 21.511 billion yuan, down 13.72% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, a substantial decline of 52.66% year-on-year, and a net profit of 2.019 billion yuan, down 65.62% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 74.93%, a decrease of 2.13 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 35.3%, down 1.41 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The company’s expense ratio for Q1-Q3 2025 was 11.84%, a slight decrease of 0.46 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and finance showing varied changes [2]. - In Q3 2025, the expense ratio increased to 14.15%, with notable increases in sales and management expense ratios [2]. Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its strategies in response to industry pressures, including reducing inventory and controlling channel supply to navigate through the current market challenges [1][3]. - The introduction of new products, such as the 29-degree Wuliangye, aims to diversify the product lineup and create new growth opportunities [3]. Shareholder Returns - The company announced a mid-year cash dividend plan, proposing a total distribution of 10 billion yuan, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [2]. Future Outlook - Projections for revenue from 2025 to 2027 are 78.137 billion yuan, 83.540 billion yuan, and 92.087 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 27.022 billion yuan, 28.118 billion yuan, and 30.352 billion yuan respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7][19]. Core Views - The company continues to experience revenue and net profit adjustments, with a total revenue of 3.702 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 472 million yuan, down 29.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - The decline in revenue is influenced by policy changes, but low-priced products and e-commerce channels are performing well, with e-commerce sales increasing by 71.4% year-on-year in Q3 2025 [2][4]. - The company is expected to recover growth in the coming years as market conditions improve, with projected revenues of 4.619 billion yuan in 2025, down 13.8% year-on-year, but increasing by 10.3% and 12.0% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [4][11]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 62.1%, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin decline of 3.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 312 million yuan, a decrease of 188 million yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow [3][4]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.74 yuan, with a significant increase in net profit expected in subsequent years [5][11].

Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 588 million, a year-on-year increase of 4.37%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million, a decrease of 26.31% [1] - The gross profit margin improved to 37.15%, up 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company expects to see gradual improvements in operational effectiveness due to completed channel adjustments and new product launches [2] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 operating revenue was 588 million, with a year-on-year growth of 4.37% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million, down 26.31% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 76 million, also down 26.47% [1] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 37.15%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.35 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 13.88%, a decrease of 5.78 percentage points year-on-year, but an increase of 8.92% quarter-on-quarter [2] Expense Management - The total expense ratio for Q3 2025 was 21.88%, an increase of 5.99 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Sales expense ratio was 17.33%, up 5.91 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to optimized spending on platforms like Douyin [2] - Management expense ratio was 3.71%, slightly down by 0.02 percentage points year-on-year, while R&D expense ratio was 1.19%, up 0.03 percentage points [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.174 billion, 2.471 billion, and 2.814 billion, with expected year-on-year changes of -3.70%, +13.67%, and +13.86% respectively [3] - Expected net profits for the same period are 239 million, 318 million, and 374 million, with year-on-year changes of -36.55%, +33.13%, and +17.70% respectively [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating with projected P/E ratios of 21.2, 16.0, and 13.6 for 2025-2027 [3]