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甘源食品(002991):经营阶段性承压,静待渠道调整效果
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-13 02:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure due to channel adjustments, but there is potential for recovery as the effects of these adjustments materialize [4]. - E-commerce growth remains strong, with a notable increase in direct sales and other channels, indicating resilience in key product lines despite overall revenue decline [1][2]. - The company is undergoing a transformation phase, focusing on direct sales and overseas market expansion, which is expected to yield positive results in the long term [4]. Revenue and Profitability - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 940 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 55.2% [1]. - The revenue from the e-commerce channel grew by 12.4% to 150 million yuan, showcasing strong performance amidst rising costs in the overall e-commerce landscape [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 33.6%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to cost pressures [3]. Cost and Expenses - The company faced increased cost pressures, particularly from rising palm oil prices, which averaged 9,462.2 yuan per ton, up 17.3% year-on-year [3]. - Selling expenses increased by 5.3 percentage points to 18.6% of revenue, driven by enhanced brand promotion efforts [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see revenue growth of 3.0%, 20.4%, and 16.7% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reaching 2.33 billion, 2.80 billion, and 3.27 billion yuan [4][9]. - Net profit is projected to decline by 12.9% in 2025 but recover with growth rates of 35.9% and 23.4% in the following years [4][9].