商业航天高频发射产业拐点
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机械设备行业点评:商业航天运力是关键,高频发射产业拐点或将至
Western Securities· 2025-09-26 05:22
Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Overweight" with expectations of a price increase exceeding 10% compared to the market benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [6][10]. Core Insights - The commercial space launch capacity is critical, and a turning point in the high-frequency launch industry may be approaching, with significant developments expected in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [1]. - The successful launch of the reusable rocket Zhuque-3 by Blue Arrow Aerospace in 2025, with a capacity of approximately 60 tons, is anticipated to boost China's commercial space sector [2]. - Tianbing Technology's Tianlong-3 rocket, expected to launch by the end of 2025, aims to exceed a payload capacity of 20 tons, marking a significant advancement in China's commercial space capabilities [3]. - The Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is accelerating the development of reusable rockets, with plans for launches in 2025 and 2026, indicating a strong future for the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the completion of multiple satellite launches by GW Constellation, indicating a growing trend in commercial space operations [1]. - The challenges faced by Qianfan Constellation, including failed rocket tenders, underline the importance of reliable launch capacity in the commercial space sector [1]. Key Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque-3 rocket is set to perform three launches in 2025 and twelve in 2026, significantly enhancing launch capabilities [2]. - Tianlong-3 rocket's successful testing positions it for a pivotal role in future commercial launches, with a payload capacity of 17 to 22 tons for low Earth orbit [3]. - The development of the Liarrow-2 rocket by China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is also noted, with plans for its first flight in 2025 [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the rocket support segment, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment: Plittech (688333.SH), Huashu Gaoke (688433.SH), Srey New Materials (688102.SH), and Guanglian Aviation (300900.SZ) [4].