丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 朱雀三号即将再次回收试验，我国火箭重复使用 技术有望突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月 25 日，蓝箭航天宣布，其研制的朱雀三号重复使用运载火箭计划于今年第二季度再次开展 回收试验，并根据回收试验情况，争取于第四季度尝试首次回收复用飞行。此次蓝箭航天公布 其回收试验及首次回收复用飞行相关安排，我们认为我国商业航天有望于今年实现关键技术突 破。随着可回收火箭的技术突破，火箭发射成本有望大幅降低，从而加速我国商业航天产业发 展。建议关注产业链各环节的核心供应商，重点关注卫星应用相关标的。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525070002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 朱雀三号即将再次回收试验，我国火箭重复使 2] 用技术有望突破 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2 月 2 ...

【商业航天动态】当地时间2月28日，美国已将【太空部队】、空军、海军、海军陆战队和陆军派往针对伊朗的行 动中。 后续催化展望： 海外： 1据彭博新闻报道，SpaceX公司的IPO申请最早于3月发布，IPO于6月进行，预计估值超过1.75万亿美元。 （信维通信等） 2starship V3计划于3月中旬首飞。 3 【商业航天动态】当地时间2月28日，美国已将【太空部队】、空军、海军、海军陆战队和陆军派往针对伊朗的行 动中。 1据彭博新闻报道，SpaceX公司的IPO申请最早于3月发布，IPO于6月进行，预计估值超过1.75万亿美元。 （信维通信等） 2starship V3计划于3月中旬首飞。 3RKLB中子号可重复使用火箭计划Q2首飞。 国内： 1两会于3月初召开。 2力箭二号可重复使用火箭计划3月下旬首飞。 (泰胜风能) 3朱雀三号遥二计划Q2再次尝试回收，争取Q4尝试复用飞行。 (飞沃科技、超捷股份、斯瑞新材) 后续催化展望： 海外： 3、4月起，我国新型号火箭再次密集首飞及回收，#2026年或成为我国火箭回收元年，两大星座的招标及发射预计 也将稳步推进，蓝箭航天、中科宇航有望于年内上市。 4天龙三号（广 ...

#火箭端将迎来国内外密集重磅催化时期【国金机械】 国内： 1中科宇航-力箭二号可回收-3月发射 2深蓝航天-星云一号海上回收-3月发射 3航天科技-长十二乙可回收-3月发射 4天兵科技-天龙三号（一箭36星）-三月发射 5蓝箭航天-朱雀三号可回收摇2-Q2发射 重点关注：超捷股份（蓝箭核心供应 海外：SpaceX-星舰V3-3月发射（最快3月9日） #火箭端将迎来国内外密集重磅催化时期【国金机械】 国内： 1中科宇航-力箭二号可回收-3月发射 2深蓝航天-星云一号海上回收-3月发射 3航天科技-长十二乙可回收-3月发射 4天兵科技-天龙三号（一箭36星）-三月发射 5蓝箭航天-朱雀三号可回收摇2-Q2发射 重点关注：超捷股份（蓝箭核心供应商）、三剑客（飞沃科技、航天动力、西部材料）、广联航空。 海外：SpaceX-星舰V3-3月发射（最快3月9日） ...

2月27日，商业航天概念表现活跃，广联航空、飞沃科技涨超13%，聚合材料、立中集团、海兰信、首都在线跟涨。 第三是春节动态：行业热度不减，高频发射序幕将启。海南商业航天发射场二期工程主体结构已完工，3号、4号发射工位预计年底前具备发射能 力，未来四工位年发射能力将达60发；深蓝航天明确春节后将执行"星云一号"运载火箭首次入轨飞行任务，同步验证火箭入轨与一子级高空垂直 回收；海外方面，北京时间2月20日，SpaceX完成2026年度第20次发射，使用27手猎鹰9号火箭将29颗星链卫星送入预定轨道。 第四是技术突破：可回收火箭密集发射，大运力时代来临。进入3月，国内商业航天将迎来发射高峰期，朱雀三、天龙三、长征十B、双曲线三 号、智神星一号、引力二号、长征十二B等多款可回收火箭将陆续择机发射。 华龙证券表示，商业航天加速发展，市场规模持续提升，维持行业"推荐"评级。建议关注以下标的：（1）火箭发射：超捷股份、斯瑞新材、铂力 特、中天火箭；（2）卫星制造：中国卫星、臻镭科技、航天电子；（3）卫星应用：中科星图、华测导航。 据券商中国，署名为东吴证券王紫敬的点评表示，商业航天板块重新爆发主要有四大利好： 第一是政策催 ...

2026年初，中国商业航天市场热度持续攀升——多家商业火箭冲刺IPO，朱雀三号计划再度开展回收试验，载人航天目标2030年登月。资本、技术、政策三 重利好共振下，行业正从"概念验证"迈向"规模化落地"的关键阶段。这一火热态势，也在资本市场得到呼应。 据基金公告，全市场首只跟踪卫星产业指数的卫星产业ETF正式更名为"卫星ETF招商（159218）"，名称焕新，热度依旧，近五日卫星ETF招商（159218） 净流入超2亿元，位居同指数标的首位，市场关注度持续提升。 接下来的3月，全球航天发射场将迎来罕见的"火箭密集发射季"。从中国酒泉、海阳到美国得克萨斯州博卡奇卡，至少6枚新型火箭将相继点火升空——这不 仅是一场技术秀，更是全球航天产业从"实验验证"迈向"规模化应用"的关键转折。 国内方面，可回收火箭正在进入攻坚期，3月前后中国航天将呈现"国家队+民企"双轮驱动格局，五只火箭密集齐发。 | 序号 | 公司/单位 | 火箭名称 | 发射时间 | 技术特点 | 核心目标/ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 中科宇航 | 力箭二号 | 3月下旬 | 可回收液体火 ...

Group 1 - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing a rebound, with multiple new-generation rockets successfully completing their maiden flights, and the number of launches in 2026 expected to exceed 100 [1] - Key rockets planned for first flights in 2026 include Tianlong-3, Lijian-2, and Shuangjuxian-3, which will challenge single-stage recovery technology [1] - CITIC Securities highlights that reusable rockets will be the core engine of industrialization in 2026, with companies like Deep Blue Aerospace and Tianbing Technology focusing on recovery technology validation [1] Group 2 - The satellite internet and reusable rocket industries are identified as high-certainty main lines, emphasizing leading technology, frequency orbit advantages, and clear commercialization paths for top enterprises [1] - As of February 13, 2026, the CSI Defense Index (399973) rose by 1.10%, with notable increases in stocks such as Hangtian Materials (up 10.00%) and Hangfa Control (up 5.44%) [1] - The National Defense ETF (512670) closely tracks the CSI Defense Index and reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the defense industry [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Defense Index include Aerospace Electronics, Hangfa Power, and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, collectively accounting for 42.4% of the index [2]

商业航天概念盘中震荡反弹，安达维尔涨超15%，海兰信、航发控制、星环科技、航宇科技、广联航 空、天银机电等跟涨。消息面上，中航证券指出，多款新一代火箭成功首飞,2026年发射次数有望破 百。2026年，天龙三号、力箭二号、双曲线三号等多款新型号火箭计划首飞，并挑战一子级回收，可复 用火箭技术有望成为商业航天规模化发展的关键拐点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The commercial space industry is gaining significant attention globally, with a surge in IPO activities among leading companies, driven by technological advancements and policy support [2][19]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - SpaceX plans to complete its IPO by mid-June 2025, with a valuation potentially reaching $1.5 trillion, which could make it the largest IPO in history [2][15]. - The domestic commercial space market is projected to reach a scale of 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 and exceed 7.8 trillion yuan by 2030 [2][15]. - Over 10 commercial space companies have initiated IPO counseling, focusing on key areas such as rockets and satellites [3][16]. Group 2: Company Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace is the fastest in progress, having started its IPO counseling in July 2025 and submitted its prospectus by December 30, aiming to raise 7.5 billion yuan for reusable rocket development [3][16]. - Zhongke Aerospace has passed the IPO counseling acceptance, with its core product, the "Liarrow-1" solid rocket, successfully launching 11 times and sending 84 satellites into space [3][16]. - Tianbing Technology is developing the "Tianlong-3," China's first large liquid launch vehicle, with a near-Earth orbit capacity of 17-22 tons, directly competing with SpaceX's Falcon 9 [4][17]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competition in the commercial space sector is intensifying, with companies racing to meet IPO technical requirements, particularly in reusable rocket technology [18][26]. - The industry is characterized by high investment and long cycles, with companies facing significant financial pressures and often relying on external financing [22][23]. - Analysts predict that only 3 to 5 companies will survive in the rocket sector, emphasizing the importance of technological breakthroughs and cost control for future success [26]. Group 4: Financial Performance - Blue Arrow Aerospace reported revenues of 780,000 yuan in 2022, increasing to 3.643 million yuan in the first half of 2025, but has accumulated losses exceeding 3.5 billion yuan [23][24]. - The cost of launching commercial rockets has significantly decreased, with the "Zhuque-3" rocket achieving a cost of 14,000 to 20,000 yuan per kilogram, lower than SpaceX's Falcon 9 [24][25]. - The industry is still in its early stages, with many companies facing losses and lacking a mature profit model [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to enter a phase of rapid growth, driven by the upcoming large-scale launch of the Starship, which will significantly enhance the efficiency of satellite deployment and related services [9][17] - The domestic large aircraft industry is seeing an increase in delivery speed and localization rates, with optimistic prospects for overseas market expansion [18][19] Summary by Sections Policy Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of strategic emerging industries, including aerospace, with increased policy support expected [10][32] - The establishment of a dedicated regulatory body for commercial aerospace aims to enhance safety and promote industry growth [10][32] - Local governments are actively promoting commercial aerospace initiatives, with over 20 provinces outlining plans in their government reports [11][34] Technical Developments - Recent successful launches of new rocket models, such as the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12, demonstrate advancements in China's launch capabilities [12][37] - The successful testing of reusable spacecraft and multi-satellite deployment systems indicates significant progress in technology that supports commercial space missions [12][38] Financing Trends - The introduction of new listing standards for commercial rocket companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board is expected to facilitate financing and enhance industrial capabilities [14][39] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO has been accepted, indicating a shift towards capitalizing the commercial aerospace sector [14][40] Demand Dynamics - The concept of "space computing" is transitioning into a commercial reality, driving growth in the commercial aerospace sector [15][41] - The upcoming Beijing International Commercial Aerospace Exhibition is anticipated to generate significant procurement demand, showcasing advancements across the industry [15][41] International Competition - The global competition for space resources is intensifying, with significant satellite deployment plans from both China and the U.S. [16][42] - The SpaceX Starship is expected to achieve a launch frequency of over once per hour within four years, supporting large-scale deep space missions [16][42]

国家航天局设立商业航天司并印发专项行动计划、上海证券交易所为商业火箭企业打开上市通道、以"星网""千帆"为代表的中国低轨星座进入批量部署阶 段…… 不论是从政策支持力度、卫星组网的发射需求，还是对标SpaceX的发展状况来看，中国商业航天都将在不久的将来迎来大爆发，中信建投在一份研究报 告中称：中国商业航天整体估值跨越万亿门槛。 前景很光明，但中国商业航天腾飞还需要一次技术突破，只有攻克可重复火箭回收技术，才能够将航天发射成本压到最低，才能将火箭发射做成工业制成 品。 【1】40米的遗憾 "最后那一脚刹车没有踩好，就没有实现刹车的功能，最后可以认为是坠毁在场坪的边缘"，当看到朱雀三号一级火箭回收失败后，其总指挥戴政颇为遗 憾，认为朱雀三号离成功只差40米。 （来源：互联网） 要知道此前的商业航天都是一次性火箭，而朱雀三号则与猎鹰九号一样，是可重复使用的大型火箭，这也意味着2025年12月的这次发射，是中国第一次去 做入轨级的运载火箭一子级的回收实验。 可以说朱雀三号被视为中国商业航天的历史性时刻，它将中国商业航天推到了"可重复火箭"的新阶段，让火箭从一次性的奢侈品，变为可重复使用的耐用 品。 这种转变有着巨大 ...