行业点评 | 机械设备 证券研究报告 2025 年 09 月 26 日 商业航天运力是关键，高频发射产业拐点或将至 事件：2025 年 7 月 27 日到 2025 年 8 月 26 日，GW 星座一共完成 6 次卫 星发射，截止 2025 年 9 月，GW 星座已完成 10 次发射 ，成功将 81 颗卫 星送入预定轨道。同时观察到，千帆星座在 2025 年 3 月完成一次组网星发 射后没有发射新的卫星，期间做了两次火箭招标均流标。推测可知，千帆星 座面临无火箭运力可用的情境，商业火箭作为商业航天运力的支撑，已成为 卫星互联网发展乃至商业航天发展的关键，考虑到星网的高频发射，以及 2025 年四季度及 2026 年上半年有多款中大型商业火箭首飞的预期，商业航 天拐点或将至，建议重点关注火箭配套环节。 蓝箭航天：2024 年 11 月，在 2024 珠海论坛-商业航天发展论坛现场, 蓝箭 航天 CEO 张昌武透露，公司正在研发的可重复使用火箭朱雀三号将于 2025 年迎来首飞，当年拟执行 3 次发射任务，可提供运力约 60 吨。同时，2026 年，朱雀三号拟交付发射 12 次，提供运力约 220 吨。或可推测， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued guidelines to optimize business access and promote the development of the satellite communication industry, aiming to stimulate commercial space innovation and enhance high-quality development in related sectors [1] Group 1: Satellite Communication Development - Satellite communication allows direct connection without the need for ground base stations, enabling services like phone calls and messaging in areas lacking mobile network coverage [1] - As of September 2023, China Telecom has opened satellite direct connection services for mobile phones and vehicles, with nearly 3 million users of the Tian Tong satellite [3] - In July 2023, the monthly call minutes for the Tian Tong satellite exceeded 1 million, with 35 models of satellite direct connection phones launched, totaling over 23 million units shipped [5] - The MIIT has granted China Unicom a satellite mobile communication business license, with China Mobile's license expected soon, indicating an expansion of direct satellite services to a broader user base [6] Group 2: Integration with Ground Communication - Future developments in satellite communication are expected to integrate with ground mobile communication, expanding applications across various industries, including mobile phones, vehicles, and drones [8] Group 3: Satellite Internet Launches - China has planned to launch over 10,000 satellites to provide global network services, with recent successful launches of multiple low-orbit internet satellites [9] - The Long March 8 rocket has demonstrated high-density launch capabilities, with plans for five more launches before the Lunar New Year [14] - The industry is currently developing new rockets to meet the demand for launching thousands of low-orbit satellites, with several new rocket designs expected to achieve their first flights by the end of 2025 [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The commercial aerospace industry in China is on the verge of explosive growth, with significant increases in market size and financing expected in the coming years [5][9]. Group 1: Market Growth and Financing - The Chinese commercial aerospace market is projected to reach a scale of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and is expected to exceed 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 20% [5]. - In terms of financing, the total amount for 2024 is expected to surpass 20 billion yuan, setting a historical record. By mid-August 2025, over 120 financing events have been disclosed, amounting to over 5.2 billion yuan, with an annual financing total projected to reach 25-28 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%-38% [5][9]. Group 2: Key Financing Areas and Support - The most popular financing sectors within commercial aerospace include satellite applications, rocket manufacturing, and satellite manufacturing, with 138 financing events recorded in 2024, totaling 20.239 billion yuan [9][10]. - Local state-owned capital and market-oriented capital have played crucial roles in this growth, with various provinces establishing specialized funds to support the commercial aerospace sector [10]. Group 3: Policy Support and Market Entry - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced policies to support the listing of unprofitable commercial aerospace companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, providing more financing channels for long-cycle industries [11]. - Notable companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and others are already in the process of preparing for public listings [11]. Group 4: Cost Reduction and Technological Development - Reducing the cost of rocket launches is a primary focus for entrepreneurs in the commercial aerospace sector, with companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace developing reusable rockets to lower costs significantly [12][15]. - Blue Arrow's Zhuque-3 rocket utilizes methane as fuel, reducing costs to one-third of aviation kerosene, and employs stainless steel for its body, cutting material costs by 80% [15]. Group 5: Satellite Internet Development - The ultimate goal of developing commercial aerospace is to establish satellite internet systems, with China's "Starlink plan" aiming to deploy a large number of low-Earth orbit satellites to create a global high-speed internet network [19][21]. - China has applied to launch 51,300 satellites under the International Telecommunication Union's "first-come, first-served" rule, with several satellite constellations planned to provide global broadband services [21][22]. Group 6: Emerging Companies and Ecosystem Expansion - The number of commercial aerospace companies in China has increased from fewer than 100 in 2015 to over 500 by 2025, indicating a significant expansion of the industry ecosystem [17]. - Companies like Galaxy Space are innovating in satellite manufacturing, aiming to reduce costs significantly through mass production techniques [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations necessary for meeting international regulatory deadlines [1][3][13]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has a rocket launch order with a total budget of 616 million RMB, aimed at supporting its "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network [2]. - The repeated failures in the bidding process for this order highlight the lack of qualified private rocket companies capable of fulfilling large-scale launch contracts [3][4]. - The urgency for satellite companies is underscored by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite launches to retain orbital and frequency resources [6][8]. Group 2: Current Launch Activity - As of mid-August 2025, China has conducted 35 space launches, a record for the first half of the year, with a notable increase in launch frequency driven by companies like China Star Network [9][11]. - China Star Network completed five network launches in a span of 21 days, successfully deploying 38 satellites using multiple types of rockets [9][10]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The commercial satellite market is experiencing a surge in contracts, with companies like Aerospace Hongtu signing a 990 million RMB contract for satellite and ground system procurement [4]. - Despite the high demand for satellite launches, the industry lacks a large-capacity liquid rocket comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which poses a significant challenge for satellite deployment [4][21]. Group 4: Rocket Development and Prospects - The current bidding process by Yuanxin Satellite has revealed a shortage of suppliers capable of providing large-capacity launch services, indicating a critical gap in the market [13][16]. - Three private rocket companies—Tianbing Technology, Blue Arrow Aerospace, and CAS Space—have emerged as potential suppliers for upcoming launches, although none have completed a successful orbital flight yet [27][28]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is witnessing a shift towards developing large-capacity, reusable liquid rockets, with companies like Tianbing Technology and Blue Arrow Aerospace focusing their resources on this goal [24][25]. - The establishment of new launch facilities and the readiness of suppliers for mass production are crucial steps towards addressing the current launch capacity bottleneck [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations despite a growing demand for satellite services [2][4][10]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - A major rocket launch order worth 616 million RMB from Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co. has repeatedly failed to attract enough bidders, highlighting the shortage of capable private rocket companies [2][4]. - The total number of satellites planned by Yuanxin's "Qianfan Constellation" and China Star Network's "GW Constellation" has exceeded 30,000, indicating a substantial demand for launch services [3][4]. - The urgency of satellite launches is emphasized by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite deployment to retain orbital and frequency resources [7][8]. Group 2: Current Launch Capacity - As of mid-2025, the Chinese commercial space sector has not produced a liquid rocket that can match the capabilities of SpaceX's Falcon 9, which poses a challenge for satellite companies needing reliable and cost-effective launch options [4][10]. - The recent bidding process by Yuanxin Satellite revealed that there are not enough qualified suppliers to meet the demand for large-capacity launch services, underscoring the industry's operational limitations [12][18]. Group 3: Potential Solutions and Developments - The market is looking towards several upcoming rockets, such as Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong-3," Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque-3," and CAS Space's "Lijian-2," which are expected to meet the large-scale constellation deployment needs but have yet to complete their first flights [5][23]. - The infrastructure for high-density launches is being developed, with new launch sites and production capabilities being established to support the anticipated increase in launch frequency [24][25]. - The capital market is becoming more accessible for companies in the commercial space sector, with firms like Blue Arrow Aerospace and CAS Space entering the IPO preparatory phase to secure funding for future growth [25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations necessary for meeting international regulatory deadlines [2][4][11]. Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has a budget of 616 million RMB for a rocket launch order, but the bidding process has repeatedly failed due to insufficient qualified suppliers [2][12]. - The urgency for satellite companies is heightened by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite launches to retain orbital and frequency resources [6][7]. - The total number of satellites planned by Yuanxin and another company has exceeded 30,000, indicating a high demand for launch services [3]. Group 2: Current Launch Capacity - Since 2014, China's private rocket companies have struggled to develop a large-capacity liquid launch vehicle comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which limits the ability to meet the growing demand for satellite launches [3][18]. - The recent bidding failures highlight the lack of sufficient private rocket companies capable of providing the necessary launch services [4][13]. Group 3: Industry Developments - The market is looking towards several private companies, such as Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong 3," Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque 3," and CASIC's "Lijian 2," which are expected to meet the large-scale constellation deployment needs but have not yet completed their first flight tests [4][22]. - The recent procurement process by Yuanxin has seen the inclusion of three private rocket companies in the supplier list, marking a significant milestone for the industry [11][24]. Group 4: Financial and Production Readiness - The commercial space sector is witnessing increased investment and production readiness, with companies like Platinum Technology and Aerospace Technology reporting significant growth in their production capabilities [10][23]. - The capital market is becoming more accessible for commercial space companies, with some entering the IPO preparatory phase to secure funding for future projects [23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The industry is at a critical juncture, awaiting the successful first flights of several key rockets, which will be essential for launching the planned satellite constellations and fulfilling market demand [24].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is facing a significant bottleneck in rocket launch capacity, which is hindering the deployment of satellite constellations necessary for various applications, including internet services and earth observation [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Demand and Challenges - Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. has a budget of 616 million RMB for a rocket launch order to support its "Qianfan Constellation" project, but the bidding process has repeatedly failed due to insufficient qualified suppliers [1][2] - The total number of satellites declared by Yuanxin and another company has exceeded 30,000, indicating a high demand for launch services [2] - The urgency is compounded by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) rules, which impose strict deadlines for satellite launches to retain orbital and frequency resources [4][5] Group 2: Current Launch Capacity - The current private rocket companies in China lack a large-capacity liquid rocket comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which limits their ability to meet the growing demand for satellite launches [2][3] - The recent bidding results show that only a few private companies, such as Tianbing Technology and Blue Arrow Aerospace, have the potential to meet the launch requirements, but they have not yet completed their first flight tests [3][10] Group 3: Industry Developments - The market has seen significant contracts, such as a 990 million RMB deal signed by Aerospace Hongtu with an international client, indicating a thriving satellite industry despite the launch capacity issues [2][7] - The launch frequency and capacity of Chinese companies are lagging behind SpaceX, which completed 100 orbital launches in the first eight months of 2025 alone [6][11] Group 4: Future Prospects - The industry is witnessing a shift towards developing large-capacity, reusable liquid rockets, with companies like Tianbing Technology and Blue Arrow Aerospace focusing their resources on this goal [17][18] - The infrastructure for high-density launches is being developed, with new launch sites and facilities being established to support future rocket launches [20][21] - The successful completion of initial flights for the new generation of rockets is critical for the satellite companies to proceed with their deployment plans [18][21]

Group 1 - The commercial aerospace market in China is expected to reach a scale of 2.3 trillion yuan in 2024 and is projected to exceed 2.5-2.8 trillion yuan in 2025, with an annual compound growth rate of over 20% [2] - In terms of financing, the total amount of financing in China's commercial aerospace sector is expected to reach 250-280 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 23%-38% [2] - A number of new commercial rocket models, including Zhuque-3, Tianlong-3, and others, are set to make their debut in 2025 [2] Group 2 - In 2024, there were 138 financing events in the commercial aerospace sector, with disclosed financing amounts reaching 20.239 billion yuan, marking a historical high [4] - The most popular financing areas include satellite applications, rocket manufacturing, and satellite manufacturing, with significant amounts raised in satellite operations and rocket manufacturing [4] - Local state-owned and market-oriented capital have played a crucial role in supporting the commercial aerospace sector, with various funds established to invest in this area [5] Group 3 - Over the past three years, more than 20 provinces and cities have released over 40 policy plans to support key technology innovation and industrialization in commercial aerospace [7] - Notable venture capital firms, including Sequoia China and Hillhouse Capital, have invested in the commercial aerospace sector, leading to the emergence of new unicorn companies [7] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has provided policy support for commercial aerospace companies, allowing unprofitable firms to list on the Science and Technology Innovation Board [8] Group 4 - Reducing costs, particularly the cost per rocket launch, remains a top priority for entrepreneurs in the commercial aerospace sector [9] - SpaceX has set a successful precedent by significantly lowering launch costs through the recovery of boosters and fairings, which account for about 70% of rocket costs [10] - Domestic companies are following SpaceX's lead by focusing on the development of reusable rockets and finding ways to reduce costs in key areas [10] Group 5 - Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque-3 rocket uses methane as fuel, reducing costs to one-third of aviation kerosene, and has achieved significant cost reductions in materials and maintenance [12] - The company aims to increase the reuse of Zhuque-3 to over 20 times and reduce launch costs to 20,000 yuan per kilogram [12] - The commercial aerospace ecosystem in China is expanding, with the number of companies growing from less than 100 in 2015 to over 500 by 2025 [13] Group 6 - The ultimate goal of developing commercial aerospace is to establish a satellite internet system, akin to SpaceX's Starlink [14] - China's "Starlink plan" aims to deploy a large number of low Earth orbit satellites to create a global high-speed internet communication network [17] - Various satellite constellations are being developed, including the Qianfan constellation and GW constellation, with plans to launch thousands of satellites [18][20]

Core Viewpoint - China's Starlink program is racing against time to deploy a massive constellation of satellites, with a goal of launching approximately 13,000 satellites by 2034, driven by international regulatory deadlines set by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) [1][3][5] Group 1: Launch Strategy and Goals - China has executed five satellite launches in just 21 days, marking an unprecedented pace in its satellite deployment efforts [1][10] - The ITU has established strict timelines for satellite deployment, requiring at least one satellite in orbit within seven years, 10% of the total by the ninth year, 50% by the twelfth year, and 100% by the fourteenth year [3][5][6] - By 2029, China needs to have approximately 1,300 satellites in orbit, with a significant ramp-up in launch frequency required to meet these targets [11][12] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - SpaceX's Starlink has set a high bar with its rapid deployment of thousands of satellites, creating pressure on other competitors like China's Starlink and Amazon's Project Kuiper [6][9] - Amazon's Kuiper project, aiming to deploy 3,200 satellites, is also under time constraints, having launched over 100 satellites recently [7][9] - The competitive environment is characterized by a race to secure frequency and orbital resources, with the potential for significant consequences for those who fail to meet deployment milestones [6][18] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - China's current strategy involves multiple rocket types being launched in parallel to meet immediate deployment needs, but this approach may not be sustainable long-term due to complexity and cost pressures [11][15] - To meet future demands, China must increase the payload capacity of its rockets and establish a more efficient launch cadence, potentially moving towards reusable rocket technology [12][14][15] - The development of the Long March 12 rocket, which may evolve into a reusable platform, is seen as a critical step in enhancing China's launch capabilities [14][15] Group 4: Regulatory Environment and Implications - The ITU's deadlines are not just formalities; failure to meet them could result in reduced frequency allocations or even project termination [18][19] - The case of Rivada, which received a waiver despite not launching any satellites, illustrates that demonstrating credible progress can provide some leeway in regulatory compliance [18][19] - For China, the focus must be on consistent satellite launches and production capabilities to avoid reliance on potential regulatory leniency [19]

Group 1 - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued policies to promote high-quality development in commercial aerospace from 2025 to 2028, focusing on encouraging enterprises to develop core technologies in reusable liquid rocket engines [1] - The provincial government will provide up to 50% matching funding support for national major science and technology projects that meet specific conditions, and will implement a 100% pre-tax deduction policy for corporate R&D expenditures [1] - Liquid fuel rockets are becoming the mainstream choice for the next generation of reusable rockets due to their adjustable thrust, strong restart capability, and high system adaptability [1] Group 2 - Guotai Junan Securities indicates that the current insufficient rocket capacity in China is a core bottleneck for low Earth orbit satellite networking, and developing reusable rockets and liquid fuel technologies is key to enhancing capacity [1] - It is estimated that by 2030, an average of 64 rockets per year will be needed to meet the planned networking requirements, with the rocket market expected to reach a scale of 100 billion by 2030 [1] - CITIC Securities points out that several large-capacity private liquid rockets, such as Zhuque-3 from Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianlong-3 from Tianbing Technology, are set to make their maiden flights in the second half of 2025, marking a breakthrough in the commercialization of private liquid rockets [1] Group 3 - Srey New Materials has initiated the construction of a project for the industrialization of materials, parts, and components for liquid rocket engine thrust chambers [2] - Taisheng Wind Power's rocket storage tank is a key pressure vessel used for storing liquid rocket propellants, including fuel and oxidizers, and is one of the core components of launch vehicles [2]