记者丨彭新 编辑丨张星 处于爆发前夜的商业航天领域，迎来顶层管理架构的职能整合。 近日， 国家国防科技工业局（下称"国防科工局"）官网发布的2026年度考试录用公务员公 告，计划招录"商业航天司航天监管岗"。 另据国家公务员局公开招录信息显示，该岗位职级 为"一级主任科员及以下"，职位简介为"承担商业航天领域政策研究、项目管理、重大事项组 织协调、安全监管等工作"。 据了解，商业航天司为国防科工局近期新增设部门，目前正处于人员招募的起步阶段。 这一机构设置的变动，被业界视为国家从体制机制层面破解商业航天复杂监管现状、推动产业 向规范化、规模化转型的关键信号。 图片来源：新华社 职能整合提速 卫星制造商银河航天向记者回应称，国防科工局商业航天司的成立有助于推动产业健康、有 序、高质量发展。公司期待商业航天司的设立持续推动我国商业航天加速发展，加速技术与产 业的融合创新，凝聚力量共同培育产业集群新生态。 此次商业航天司的设立，意在从顶层设计上解决上述职能交叉与分散的问题。据中信证券11月 23日研报，商业航天司的成立将有效整合多部门相关职能，卫星产业发展有望在更高层面实现 统筹协调，商业航天发射审批、卫星运营牌照 ...

根据公开的组织架构，此前卫星产业监管职能呈现"切块"特征：国防科工局作为民用卫星发射主管部 门，主抓卫星工程统筹及发射审批；国家航天局侧重技术论证与支持；工信部下属的信息通信发展司、 信息通信管理局和无线电管理局，则分别负责网络建设政策、市场准入与设备进网以及卫星轨道频率协 调等。 这种多部门并行的管理模式，随着商业航天企业数量增长和发射任务频率加密，审批流程繁琐、标准不 一、协调难度大等问题日益凸显。 （原标题：中国商业航天爆发前夜，商业航天司来了） 21世纪经济报道记者彭新 处于爆发前夜的商业航天领域，迎来顶层管理架构的职能整合。 近日，国家国防科技工业局（下称"国防科工局"）官网发布的2026年度考试录用公务员公告显示，计划 招录"商业航天司航天监管岗"。另据国家公务员局公开招录信息显示，该岗位职级为"一级主任科员及 以下"，职位简介为"承担商业航天领域政策研究、项目管理、重大事项组织协调、安全监管等工作"。 据了解，商业航天司为国防科工局近期新增设部门，目前正处于人员招募的起步阶段。 这一机构设置的变动，被业界视为国家从体制机制层面破解商业航天复杂监管现状、推动产业向规范 化、规模化转型的关键信号。 ...

Group 1 - The military industry is experiencing a period of adjustment, with the aerospace ETF (159227) down by 1.52% as of 14:35 on November 21, 2023, and a trading volume of 207 million yuan, maintaining its position as the largest in its category [1] - Several companies within the aerospace sector, such as Guoke Military Industry, Tianhe Defense, China Marine Defense, and Yaguang Technology, are showing notable gains [1] - A significant increase in reusable rocket technology is expected between the end of 2025 and early 2026, with multiple rockets, including Blue Arrow Aerospace's "Zhuque 3," China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation's "Liqiang 2," and others, set to make their maiden flights, laying the groundwork for the commercialization of space travel [1] Group 2 - Dongwu Securities highlights a comprehensive improvement in the financial status of the military industry, with enhanced profitability and cash flow, shifting the valuation framework from "theme speculation" to "fundamental pricing" [1] - This trend is particularly evident in the aerospace sector, which is poised for a profound value reassessment as commercial space and low-altitude economies scale up [1] - The "Aerospace Power" strategy is expected to create a trillion-yuan market in emerging sectors, injecting strong new momentum into high-end manufacturing and the national economy [1][2]

导语：在国内已成立数十家商业火箭公司的背景下，对于技术研发和规模生产节奏的把握，或初步划分 出市场格局。 商业航天是近期最热门的新兴行业之一。不同于一些存在不确定性的新兴行业，商业航天的短中期前景 清晰可见：规模达数万颗卫星的星座将在太空中组建卫星互联网，成为未来通信、计算、感知的重要基 建。美国商业航天巨头SpaceX的"星链"星座已发射超1万颗卫星，并已走上盈利道路。 从卫星制造、发射、组网到卫星应用，商业航天具有万亿元市场规模，但当前其堵点也显而易见：卫星 亟待发射，火箭运力严重不足，我国商业火箭公司尚没有一款大运力、低成本、高可靠的火箭。 临近年末，我国新一代商业火箭即将首发。这批火箭都定位为大型液体可复用火箭，旨在服务卫星互联 网组网发射。可复用是降低发射成本的关键技术之一，其进展在行业内外备受关注。不过，上海证券报 记者采访专家及业内投资人士了解到，通过回收复用降低成本，并不能通过单次技术突破实现，而是经 过持续验证后，通过高频次发射才能实现的结果。对于组网的迫切需求，在循序渐进攻克可复用技术的 同时，进行规模化生产、提高火箭可靠性是当下更务实的选择。 大量卫星亟待发射凸显火箭运力不足 卫星互联网 ...

Core Insights - The "Zhuque-3" rocket is set to make its maiden flight in mid-November, marking a significant milestone as China's first operational reusable launch vehicle [1] - "Zhuque-3" is the world's first all-stainless steel liquid oxygen-methane rocket, designed for enhanced reusability and future scalability, similar to SpaceX's "Starship" [1] - The launch cost target for "Zhuque-3" is under 20,000 yuan per kilogram, comparable to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which costs approximately 3,000 USD per kilogram [1] Industry Impact - The debut of "Zhuque-3" has garnered significant attention both domestically and internationally, including interest from SpaceX founder Elon Musk, who noted its potential to disrupt the reusable rocket market [3] - Musk predicts that "Zhuque-3" could surpass the Falcon series within five years if development proceeds smoothly [3] - The Chinese aerospace sector is experiencing rapid growth, with other projects like Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong-3" and CAS Space's "Lijian-2" also preparing for their maiden flights [5]

Core Points - The competition between American and Chinese companies in the reusable rocket sector is intensifying, with both sides aiming to achieve significant milestones by the end of the year [5][19] - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket is set for its second flight, which is crucial for validating its recovery capabilities, while China's Zhuque-3 rocket is rapidly progressing towards its first flight [8][11] Group 1: Blue Origin and New Glenn - Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, standing at 98 meters tall and capable of carrying 45 tons to low Earth orbit, aims to challenge SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets [7][17] - The first flight of New Glenn is scheduled for January 2025, but it has faced multiple delays and has not yet successfully completed a recovery test [7][8] - The upcoming NG-2 mission in November is critical for recovery validation, with the goal of landing the booster on the recovery ship "Jacqueline" [8][12] Group 2: Chinese Competitors - China's Zhuque-3 rocket, developed by Landspace, has made significant progress, completing its static fire test and aiming for its first flight in the fourth quarter of 2025 [11][12] - The Zhuque-3 rocket is designed with a focus on reusability, utilizing a stainless steel and methane combination, which is seen as a forward-thinking approach compared to traditional designs [11][12] - Other Chinese rockets, including Lijian-2, Tianlong-3, and Chang Zheng-12, are also in development, showcasing a strong push from both state-owned and private companies in the commercial space sector [14][19] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The race for reusable rockets is not just between two companies but involves multiple players, with China potentially launching four new rockets by the end of 2025 [19][20] - The collaboration between state-owned enterprises and private companies in China is seen as a strategic advantage that could lead to sustained growth and competitiveness in the global space market [19][20] - The contrasting development timelines highlight the urgency and efficiency of Chinese companies compared to their American counterparts, with Zhuque-3 taking only 26 months to reach its first flight milestone compared to New Glenn's 260 months [11][18]

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk commented on China's Zhuque-3 rocket, suggesting it resembles SpaceX's Falcon 9 but incorporates advanced designs from the Starship, indicating potential for future superiority over Falcon 9. However, he noted that Zhuque-3 would require approximately five more years to reach Falcon 9's current maturity, while Starship would already be in extensive use by then. He emphasized the necessity of continuous innovation to remain competitive [1]. Group 1: Zhuque-3 Overview - Zhuque-3 is China's most advanced reusable rocket, developed by Landspace in 2023, aimed at large-scale satellite internet constellation deployment. The rocket is expected to conduct its maiden flight within the year and attempt to recover its first stage [5][7]. - The current version of Zhuque-3 measures 66 meters in length, with a diameter of 4.5 meters and a payload capacity of 11 tons to orbit. Future iterations will extend to 76 meters, increasing payload capacity to over 20 tons, allowing deployment of multiple internet satellites. The target cost is under 20,000 RMB per kilogram, approximately 60% of Falcon 9's current cost [5][7]. Group 2: Technical Developments - In October, Zhuque-3 was showcased at the Dongfeng Commercial Space Innovation Test Area, completing pre-flight quality checks, including fuel loading and engine tests, with positive results. The rocket is now prepared for its flight mission [7][9]. - Zhuque-3 is currently the most prepared domestic reusable rocket for its maiden flight, with other rockets like Tianlong-3 and Long March 12 also targeting their first flights within the year, most of which possess reusable capabilities [9][11]. Group 3: Design Comparisons - Zhuque-3 shares design similarities with Falcon 9, such as the use of nine engines in parallel and landing leg configurations, which is a result of market and technical definitions. However, it is characterized as a distinctly Chinese solution [12]. - SpaceX's Falcon 9 represents the pinnacle of current aerospace technology and commercial integration, achieving an optimal balance of time, cost, and service quality, which is recognized globally [14][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the defense and military industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a "dual-cycle resonance" in 2025, indicating a significant turning point for the industry and a year of substantial military investment [5][48] - It highlights a recovery in industry prosperity, value reassessment, and event-driven catalysts as key factors for growth [5][48] - The report suggests that the military industry is expected to see improved performance starting from Q2 2025, driven by an increase in orders and a favorable geopolitical environment [5][49] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88%, while the defense and military index increased by 2.60%, underperforming the market by 0.28 percentage points, ranking 12th out of 29 sectors [3][22] - Year-to-date, the defense and military index has increased by 17.98%, slightly outperforming the market [25] Key Developments - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed the development of a "Space Power," marking a strategic focus on aerospace as a new emerging industry [4][12] - The report notes rapid advancements in satellite internet deployment and the aerospace industry, with multiple satellite launches occurring in October [15][16] Investment Focus - The report recommends focusing on "new quality combat capabilities" and low-valuation stocks within the military sector [5][48] - Key investment targets include next-generation combat systems, unmanned equipment, satellite internet, and missile & ammunition sectors [5][48] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include China Nuclear Engineering leading with a 23.40% increase, followed by Filihua and Aerospace Technology with significant gains [31][34] - The report identifies several companies as core beneficiaries of the anticipated industry growth, including AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Huazhong Technology, and others [5][48]

Group 1 - Global rocket launch frequency has reached new highs for three consecutive years since 2020, indicating unprecedented activity in the aerospace sector [1] - China's low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite construction is lagging behind high-throughput satellites, with the Tian Tong-1 satellite being a mature GEO satellite constellation widely used across various industries [1] - The deployment of two major satellite constellations (GW and G60) in China is set to begin in 2024, marking the start of a new era of regular launches by 2025 [1] Group 2 - SpaceX's acquisition of EchoStar's 50MHz spectrum for $17 billion signifies a strategic positioning in the global direct-to-cell satellite competition, allowing for independent satellite communication capabilities [2][3][4] - This acquisition enables SpaceX to enhance its service capabilities from text to voice and streaming data, aiming to cover remote areas and urban regions through a hybrid model [4][5] - China's policies supporting direct-to-cell satellite development are accelerating constellation networking and commercialization of private rockets, presenting significant opportunities in the commercial aerospace industry [2][6] Group 3 - The construction and operation of giant LEO satellite constellations are characterized by long cycles, high technical integration, and significant risks, with both state-owned and private enterprises in China actively participating [1][17] - The rapid increase in launch frequency for China's GW constellation indicates a shift towards high-density networking, with the interval between launches decreasing significantly [8][10] - The establishment of commercial launch sites in Hainan is expected to enhance the efficiency of commercial rocket launches, with multiple reusable rockets planned for launch [12][29] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace industry in China is projected to enter a rapid development phase, with significant investments and policy support driving the growth of satellite internet and related technologies [6][30] - The market for satellite internet is expected to expand significantly, with projections indicating a market size of approximately 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025 and nearing 10 trillion yuan by 2030 [26][30] - The integration of satellite and terrestrial communication systems is becoming clearer, with satellite internet expected to complement ground communication systems in various applications [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese commercial space industry is experiencing a "capacity spring," with advancements in technology, capital, and policy potentially accelerating the development of satellite launch capabilities faster than expected [2][5]. Group 1: Recent Developments in Satellite Launch Capabilities - On October 17, 2025, Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. successfully launched the sixth batch of satellites for its "Qianfan Constellation," bringing the total number of satellites in orbit to 108 [3]. - Major telecommunications operators in China, including China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom, have received licenses for satellite mobile communication services, enabling direct satellite connections for mobile phones [3]. - The domestic satellite internet market is reaching a significant milestone, but the "capacity" segment remains constrained, necessitating the involvement of private rocket companies to alleviate the bottleneck [3][4]. Group 2: Progress of Private Rocket Companies - Beijing Tianbing Technology Co., Ltd. announced the successful sea test of its "Tianlong-3" large liquid rocket, which has a near-Earth orbit capacity of 17 to 22 tons and can launch up to 36 satellites in one go [4][7]. - Blue Arrow Aerospace successfully completed the first phase of its "Zhuque-3" rocket's launch preparations, including static ignition tests, and is preparing for its official orbital launch [4][9]. - Beijing Zhongke Aerospace Technology Co., Ltd. reported progress on its "Liqian-2" liquid rocket, which is designed for medium payloads and aims to support China's space station logistics [9][10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investment Trends - The demand for satellite launches is increasing, with estimates suggesting that the "Qianfan Constellation" requires at least 200 to 300 satellite launches annually, necessitating multiple rockets with capacities exceeding 10 tons [6]. - Recent funding rounds have seen significant investments in private rocket companies, with Star River Dynamics raising 2.4 billion yuan in its D round and Tianbing Technology securing nearly 2.5 billion yuan in Pre-D and D rounds [13][14]. - The Chinese Securities Regulatory Commission has opened a window for IPOs in the commercial space sector, prompting several companies to initiate IPO preparations [14][15]. Group 4: Technological Innovations and Cost Reduction Strategies - The use of 3D printing technology in the manufacturing of rocket components is being explored to reduce costs, with Tianbing Technology's "Tianlong-3" rocket utilizing this approach to achieve significant cost savings [21][22]. - The focus on reusable rocket technology is seen as a key strategy for cost reduction, with companies like Arrow Technology aiming for high reuse rates to lower overall launch costs [19][20]. - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as more private companies successfully launch their rockets, with cost efficiency becoming a critical factor for securing future contracts [22].