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中国海外发展(00688):央企龙头稳中求进,长期主义穿越周期
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-23 08:57
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2][70]. Core Insights - The company, backed by China State Construction Group, has a solid foundation and demonstrates resilience through diversified business operations [7][11]. - The company has maintained a strong market position despite industry challenges, with a focus on high-tier cities and a robust financial structure [7][31]. - The commercial operations segment shows significant resilience, with steady growth in rental income and occupancy rates [7][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 40 years of experience in the real estate sector and has expanded its operations across more than 80 cities in China and internationally [11]. - It operates under the umbrella of a state-owned enterprise, which provides substantial resources and support for its growth [14]. Sales and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 185.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year, primarily due to pressures in the real estate development sector [21]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 15.64 billion yuan, down 38.95% from the previous year [26]. - The company’s sales performance has shown resilience, with a market share increase from 2.03% in 2021 to 3.21% in 2024 [31]. Investment Strategy - The company focuses on acquiring land in core cities, with 73% of its new land purchases in first-tier cities in 2025 [33]. - The total land reserve as of mid-2025 was 26.93 million square meters, with 25.3% located in first-tier cities, providing a solid foundation for future sales [33]. Commercial Operations - The commercial operations segment generated 71.3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.11% [41]. - The company’s shopping centers have shown strong performance, with rental income increasing by 5.4% in the first half of 2025 [55]. - The company has received approval for its first commercial REIT, marking a significant milestone in its asset management capabilities [45]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.71 billion yuan, 16.67 billion yuan, and 17.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.89, 8.38, and 7.99 [6][70]. - The report anticipates total revenue growth of 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.0% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [65].