Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2][70]. Core Insights - The company, backed by China State Construction Group, has a solid foundation and demonstrates resilience through diversified business operations [7][11]. - The company has maintained a strong market position despite industry challenges, with a focus on high-tier cities and a robust financial structure [7][31]. - The commercial operations segment shows significant resilience, with steady growth in rental income and occupancy rates [7][41]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 40 years of experience in the real estate sector and has expanded its operations across more than 80 cities in China and internationally [11]. - It operates under the umbrella of a state-owned enterprise, which provides substantial resources and support for its growth [14]. Sales and Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 185.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.58% year-on-year, primarily due to pressures in the real estate development sector [21]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 15.64 billion yuan, down 38.95% from the previous year [26]. - The company’s sales performance has shown resilience, with a market share increase from 2.03% in 2021 to 3.21% in 2024 [31]. Investment Strategy - The company focuses on acquiring land in core cities, with 73% of its new land purchases in first-tier cities in 2025 [33]. - The total land reserve as of mid-2025 was 26.93 million square meters, with 25.3% located in first-tier cities, providing a solid foundation for future sales [33]. Commercial Operations - The commercial operations segment generated 71.3 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.11% [41]. - The company’s shopping centers have shown strong performance, with rental income increasing by 5.4% in the first half of 2025 [55]. - The company has received approval for its first commercial REIT, marking a significant milestone in its asset management capabilities [45]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 15.71 billion yuan, 16.67 billion yuan, and 17.49 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.89, 8.38, and 7.99 [6][70]. - The report anticipates total revenue growth of 2.8%, 2.0%, and 1.0% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [65].

Core Insights - Southbound funds increased their holdings in China Overseas Macro Holdings Group (00081.HK) by 619,000 shares on October 21, 2025, marking a 0.12% increase in total holdings [1] - Over the past five trading days, southbound funds have increased their holdings for five days, with a total net increase of 14.471 million shares [1] - In the last twenty trading days, there have been 17 days of net increases, totaling 55.3761 million shares [1] - As of now, southbound funds hold 526 million shares of China Overseas Macro Holdings Group, accounting for 14.76% of the company's total issued ordinary shares [1] Summary by Category Shareholding Changes - On October 21, 2025, total shares held reached 526 million, with an increase of 619,000 shares [2] - On October 20, 2025, total shares held were 525 million, with an increase of 1.991 million shares [2] - On October 17, 2025, total shares held were 523 million, with an increase of 1.243 million shares [2] - On October 16, 2025, total shares held were 522 million, with an increase of 8.414 million shares [2] - On October 15, 2025, total shares held were 513 million, with an increase of 2.204 million shares [2] Company Overview - China Overseas Macro Holdings Group Limited primarily engages in property development and commercial property operation [2] - The company operates through two segments: property development, which involves property development and sales, and commercial property operation, which includes property leasing, hotel, and other commercial property operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown strong sales performance, acquired significant land in Beijing, maintained financial stability, but experienced a decline in core profitability [2][3][4]. Sales Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total property sales amount of approximately 310.69 billion, a slight increase of 0.28% year-on-year. It ranked second among top real estate companies, trailing Poly Developments by over 12 billion [3][6]. - The sales area decreased by 14% to approximately 11.487 million square meters, while the average sales price increased by 17% to 27,047 per square meter [3][6]. - The company recorded contract sales of 1,640.4 billion in major cities, accounting for 53% of total sales, with Shanghai contributing 704.5 billion [3][6]. Land Acquisition - The company added 22 land parcels in 2024, with a total land reserve area of 4.16 million square meters, a decrease of 46% year-on-year. The total land acquisition cost was 80.6 billion, down 40% [3][8]. - The equity land price in Beijing reached 34.2 billion, representing 46% of the total equity land price across cities [9][12]. Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 185.2 billion, a decline of 9% year-on-year. Gross profit decreased by 20% to 32.8 billion, with a gross margin of 17.7%, down 2.6 percentage points [4][13]. - Net profit fell by 34% to 17.8 billion, with a net margin of 9.61%, a decrease of 3.7 percentage points [4][15]. - The company’s share of profits from joint ventures dropped by 60% to 649 million due to significant provisions for inventory impairment by its main joint venture [16]. Cash Flow and Debt Management - The company reported a net operating cash inflow of 46.45 billion, with a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 3.47 and a long-term to short-term debt ratio of 7.45 [5][20]. - The net debt ratio improved to 29.22%, a decrease of 9 percentage points year-on-year, and the average financing cost was 3.1%, among the lowest in the industry [5][22]. Diversification and Commercial Operations - The company expanded its commercial property operations, achieving an operating income of 7.13 billion, a 12% increase year-on-year, with nine new commercial properties added [25][26]. - The commercial property income included 3.57 billion from office rentals and 2.26 billion from shopping centers [25].